Coronavirus

[TEG]

People die in car crashes every day. Never before have I heard someone suggest that wearing a seatbelt is "living in fear of risks". Masks are seatbelts for the lungs. Not living in fear need not mean living with reckless abandon.

People fought hard against seat-belts when they were new. Sort of the way they feel about masks... "I never needed them before... You are restricting my freedoms... I am probably safer without... It will trap me in the car in a crash..." etc... Basically "status quo=good, any change=bad"

Before face masks, Americans went to war against seat belts

"We are a very hard society to change cognitively."

Some human nature is illogical and counter-productive...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Given that 90% of known K-12 cases are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms (and thus are unlikely to be tested), this means that the actual number of cases in schoolchildren is probably much higher than in the general population.

Maybe, but there are plenty of asymptomatic and untested adults. Adults might actually be less likely to be tested. About 15-20% of the Tennessee population has been infected to date, most likely, according to various estimates. (I tend to think the estimate below is slightly on the high side, but not sure.)

COVID-19 Projections | Tennessee

And with this discussion, remember it may not necessarily be just a matter of how many children have been infected - how likely they are to spread it, if they are infected, is really important as well.

 

[heltok]

 

[Doggydogworld]

Definitely starting to be a real chance the Dakotas will have a higher death rate than NYC. Not for sure yet - they need to let this thing rip for a couple more weeks then it should be a done deal.

South Dakota new cases peaked a week ago and dropped significantly the past few days (7 day average down from almost 1500 to 1100 on Worldometers). Behavior starts changing when things get bad, regardless of government action. Or maybe they just ran out of tests. Or Governor Kristi "Freedom" Noem had them 'adjust' the data.

Anyway, SD deaths at 926/million are rising fast, but still well behind NYC's ~3000.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Anyway, SD deaths at 926/million are rising fast, but still well behind NYC's ~3000.

Yep. It’s going to be a close thing, I suspect. Really will depend on how rapidly the surge of infections tails off.

 

[jerry33]

People fought hard against seat-belts when they were new. Sort of the way they feel about masks... "I never needed them before... You are restricting my freedoms... I am probably safer without... It will trap me in the car in a crash..." etc... Basically "status quo=good, any change=bad"

Before face masks, Americans went to war against seat belts


Some human nature is illogical and counter-productive...

And fifty-plus years later there are still people who don't use seat belts or who only put them on after the chime has been ringing for a long time. There really should be no need by now for "buckle up" signs.

 

[Snerruc]

It could be a certain amount of herd immunity is kicking in in some places. My granddaughter and all her friends have had it(20-30 people. all say it was about like a mild flu) . That seemed to end it in our group.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

About 2.45% of Tennessee schoolchildren either have or have gotten over coronavirus as of Oct. 14, versus 3.2% of the overall population. Given that 90% of known K-12 cases are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms (and thus are unlikely to be tested), this means that the actual number of cases in schoolchildren is probably much higher than in the general population.

No. It appears to be far more difficult for a <17 child to actually become infected, and also far far less likely for them to spread the disease once infected.

Cases in schoolchildren look likely to trail the rate in older people by quite a bit, regardless if measure taken to close schools.

 

[dgatwood]

It could be a certain amount of herd immunity is kicking in in some places. My granddaughter and all her friends have had it(20-30 people. all say it was about like a mild flu) . That seemed to end it in our group.

Unlikely except in NYC. Herd immunity for CV requires about 60% of the people to have it. I don't think there's a single city in the world other than *maybe* NYC that is approaching that limit.

Also, thanks to the U.S. letting it get out of control, there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to. We really needed to keep the infection numbers down for a vaccine to be effective. The current situation in the U.S. should be downright horrifying to anyone with even a basic understanding of science.

At the current rate of spread, if the vaccine truly ends up being 95% effective by the time it gets to the general public, rather than... say 5%, it will be a miracle.

The ignorance of so many means that we may end up shutting down the entire economy repeatedly over several years just to bring things back down a level where the vaccine makers can catch up. That's why I just can't understand how so many people can be so unbelievably stupid, selfish, reckless, and irresponsible. I think we basically need to take pretty much the entire American South and sit them in a corner until they learn to behave like adults.

 

[dgatwood]

No. It appears to be far more difficult for a <17 child to actually become infected, and also far far less likely for them to spread the disease once infected.

That's not correct. It may be less common in children under 10, and even that could simply be a higher rate of asymptomatic spread resulting in a lower rate of detection.

Kids from 10–17 spread coronavirus just as easily as adults.

And unfortunately, the age group that folks think are being most negatively affected — middle school — falls entirely in that upper age range.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Unlikely except in NYC. Herd immunity for CV requires about 60% of the people to have it. I don't think there's a single city in the world other than *maybe* NYC that is approaching that limit.

Also, thanks to the U.S. letting it get out of control, there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to. We really needed to keep the infection numbers down for a vaccine to be effective. The current situation in the U.S. should be downright horrifying to anyone with even a basic understanding of science.

At the current rate of spread, if the vaccine truly ends up being 95% effective by the time it gets to the general public, rather than... say 5%, it will be a miracle.

The ignorance of so many means that we may end up shutting down the entire economy repeatedly over several years just to bring things back down a level where the vaccine makers can catch up. That's why I just can't understand how so many people can be so unbelievably stupid, selfish, reckless, and irresponsible. I think we basically need to take pretty much the entire American South and sit them in a corner until they learn to behave like adults.

I think you're mis-applying your sensabilities onto the rest of the population. There's a group of americans who are willing to stop the economy in order save the lives of some of their fellow americans, and then there's the group of americans who look at the statistics and don't see a face attached to the numbers. I leave you to figure out, which group is in charge (even after Biden is in office). The entire economy will not shut down, regardless of how many people die before herd immunity is attained.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Unlikely except in NYC. Herd immunity for CV requires about 60% of the people to have it. I don't think there's a single city in the world other than *maybe* NYC that is approaching that limit.

Manaus, Brazil.

Also, thanks to the U.S. letting it get out of control, there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to.

We'd see tons of reinfections if that were true.

At the current rate of spread, if the vaccine truly ends up being 95% effective by the time it gets to the general public, rather than... say 5%, it will be a miracle.

A mutation in the next 6 months that renders the mRNA vaccines ineffective but is still highly contagious and deadly? You seriously think that's a virtual certainty?

The ignorance of so many means that we may end up shutting down the entire economy repeatedly over several years just to bring things back down a level where the vaccine makers can catch up.

Hyperbolic statements like this only feed the skepticism of the "unbelievably stupid, selfish, reckless, and irresponsible". And the America south has not been uniquely afflicted, death tolls are higher in the NE, for example.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That's not correct. It may be less common in children under 10, and even that could simply be a higher rate of asymptomatic spread resulting in a lower rate of detection.

Kids from 10–17 spread coronavirus just as easily as adults.

And unfortunately, the age group that folks think are being most negatively affected — middle school — falls entirely in that upper age range.

That's one study that refutes dozens of others. And also runs counter to what we're seeing with our eyeballs in the US since we're essentially living in a petri dish the last 6 months. This study starts out with:

The researchers traced the contacts only of children who felt ill, so it is still unclear how efficiently asymptomatic children spread the virus, said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

So they're basically taking the tiny tiny percentage of children who are symptomatically infected and treating them as all children. Meanwhile "adult" statistics are essentially one large, untrimmed group.

Some decent chunk of children(most, "a lot", who knows) don't seem capable of being infected, and of those who can, a very large proportion are completely asymptomatic. This study is essentially eliminates all them and gauges the infection nature of severe asthmatic and other compromised or otherwise susceptible children.

 

[JRP3]

And the America south has not been uniquely afflicted, death tolls are higher in the NE, for example.

That's a completely misleading "statistic" for a number of reasons. NE was hit hard early when treatments were less effective and numbers were high because of population density in NYC and surrounding areas. The south had the benefit of later infection and lessons learned, both of which they seem to be squandering.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to. We really needed to keep the infection numbers down for a vaccine to be effective.

True that more infections makes this more likely. But no evidence that the statistics are as you say. Probability of an escape from the vaccine appears to be low. Mutations in spike seem to lead to reduced transmission and virulence. At least so far. Eventually mutation that escapes the vaccine will occur. But what will be the impact? And when?

So far, so good.

 

[cusetownusa]

That's one study that refutes dozens of others. And also runs counter to what we're seeing with our eyeballs in the US since we're essentially living in a petri dish the last 6 months. This study starts out with:

So they're basically taking the tiny tiny percentage of children who are symptomatically infected and treating them as all children. Meanwhile "adult" statistics are essentially one large, untrimmed group.

Some decent chunk of children(most, "a lot", who knows) don't seem capable of being infected, and of those who can, a very large proportion are completely asymptomatic. This study is essentially eliminates all them and gauges the infection nature of severe asthmatic and other compromised or otherwise susceptible children.

Another local timely article on this subject:

Onondaga County loosens quarantining of students, school staff as tests show little coronavirus spread

“We loosened up a little bit (on the quarantines) because there are very few cases where we are seeing actual spread in schools,’' said Ann Rooney, Onondaga County deputy county executive for human services.

In nearly all cases, a child comes to school with the virus after having contracted it from a parent or someone else in the community, she said.

“The safest place for kids to be is in school,” Rooney said.

 

[Jeff N]

The Dakotas are already 3X NYC in COVID cases per capita.

I haven’t personally checked those numbers but if they are based on unadjusted confirmed case counts then you have to keep in mind that we’re doing at least 3x better now at ascertaining confirmed cases than we were during the NY and NJ outbreak in March and April. Currently, it looks like the confirmed case count reflects about 1 out of 3 actual infections due to much more available testing.

on the other hand, those are national ascertainment stats and the Dokotas are probably missing more now due to stress on the testing centers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I haven’t personally checked those numbers but if they are based on unadjusted confirmed case counts then you have to keep in mind that we’re doing at least 3x better now at ascertaining confirmed cases than we were during the NY and NJ outbreak in March and April. Currently, it looks like the confirmed case count reflects about 1 out of 3 actual infections due to much more available testing.

on the other hand, those are national ascertainment stats and the Dokotas are probably missing more now due to stress on the testing centers.

Estimates only (estimates of infections):

COVID-19 Projections | New York City

COVID-19 Projections | South Dakota

COVID-19 Projections | North Dakota

So, about the same, most likely. (As of two weeks ago.)

Dakotas definitely pulling the full Atlas.

They have county estimates now. Particularly good if you're crazy and trying to assess risk of a Thanksgiving family gathering. Just take the probability of each individual not having it, mutiply them all together, and subtract that result from 1 to get your chance of an exposure. Assumes no special quarantine measures taken, etc., etc.

 

[wdolson]

And fifty-plus years later there are still people who don't use seat belts or who only put them on after the chime has been ringing for a long time. There really should be no need by now for "buckle up" signs.

My sister had a friend whose father was in a freak accident many years earlier in which he probably would have been killed if wearing a seat belt, but his not wearing a seat belt saved him (he was hurt, but survived). As a result nobody in the family wore seat belts.

There are always fringe cases, seat belts save far more lives than kill people. But there are a;ways those who refuse to do the safe thing.

Unlikely except in NYC. Herd immunity for CV requires about 60% of the people to have it. I don't think there's a single city in the world other than *maybe* NYC that is approaching that limit.

Also, thanks to the U.S. letting it get out of control, there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to. We really needed to keep the infection numbers down for a vaccine to be effective. The current situation in the U.S. should be downright horrifying to anyone with even a basic understanding of science.

At the current rate of spread, if the vaccine truly ends up being 95% effective by the time it gets to the general public, rather than... say 5%, it will be a miracle.

The ignorance of so many means that we may end up shutting down the entire economy repeatedly over several years just to bring things back down a level where the vaccine makers can catch up. That's why I just can't understand how so many people can be so unbelievably stupid, selfish, reckless, and irresponsible. I think we basically need to take pretty much the entire American South and sit them in a corner until they learn to behave like adults.

That may not happen. SARS and COVID are virus cousins. A study of people who had SARS 17 years ago found they had immunity to COVID.

Some viruses have short lived immunity, some the body can't detect mutations to viruses you've already had, and others getting infected with one gives you permanent immunity to related viruses.

Small pox and cow pox are related viruses. Small pox in humans is deadly, but cow pox is a minor, non-fatal infection in humans. Immunity for small pox among milk maids (who were almost all exposed to cow pox) led to the first vaccine for small pox. It was found infecting people with cow pox made them immune to small pox and it launched the entire field of immunology.

We don't tend to develop very long immunity to rino viruses, which is why most people get multiple colds a year. Some people develop long term immunity to a particular strain of the flu or partial long term immunity, while others don't develop very good immunity at all. A few people develop broad spectrum immunity to all flu viruses and usually can't recall ever having it (my partner is that way).

We're fortunate that most of the highly lethal viruses tend to be one and done. If someone had it or got immunized for it, they will often be immune for life. It may be the immune system is adapted to identify dangerous viruses vs nuisance viruses and puts priority on remembering what the dangerous ones look like.

We don't know what the long term outlook for COVID will be. If SARS is an indication, once enough of the population has immunity to the strains out there today, it might be gone from the human population until another dangerous corona virus crosses over from animals when there are enough of a population that have never seen a related virus and it takes off again.

In that scenario if a lot of the people who are here now are still around, it will probably be a virus that hits the young hard and doesn't affect older people. That happened with the 1918 flu. There was a similar flu that had gone around in 1890 and people over 30 got the 1918 flu at a much lower rate than those under. Though it hit everyone in rural areas hard because the 1890 strain hadn't made it to rural areas as much.

I haven’t personally checked those numbers but if they are based on unadjusted confirmed case counts then you have to keep in mind that we’re doing at least 3x better now at ascertaining confirmed cases than we were during the NY and NJ outbreak in March and April. Currently, it looks like the confirmed case count reflects about 1 out of 3 actual infections due to much more available testing.

on the other hand, those are national ascertainment stats and the Dokotas are probably missing more now due to stress on the testing centers.

It's possible. The lack of good data is incredibly frustrating.

 

[30seconds]

Unlikely except in NYC. Herd immunity for CV requires about 60% of the people to have it. I don't think there's a single city in the world other than *maybe* NYC that is approaching that limit.

Also, thanks to the U.S. letting it get out of control, there are at this point statistically probably at least two or three other mutations that the first folks are no longer immune to. We really needed to keep the infection numbers down for a vaccine to be effective. The current situation in the U.S. should be downright horrifying to anyone with even a basic understanding of science.

At the current rate of spread, if the vaccine truly ends up being 95% effective by the time it gets to the general public, rather than... say 5%, it will be a miracle.

The ignorance of so many means that we may end up shutting down the entire economy repeatedly over several years just to bring things back down a level where the vaccine makers can catch up. That's why I just can't understand how so many people can be so unbelievably stupid, selfish, reckless, and irresponsible. I think we basically need to take pretty much the entire American South and sit them in a corner until they learn to behave like adults.

no way NYC is anywhere close to 60%