Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

But these young people in the streets are from all over the country. They will be bringing the virus mutations back to where ever they call home. The stupidity of opening up Florida just for this hurts.

I’m not saying it is great. But the problem will likely be less than it would be if it took place somewhere else with conditions more favorable to spread. Crowds roaming the street is not a recipe for a superspreading event (we’ve had this happen a lot at this point and it hasn’t reliably resulted in massive numbers of infections, even with unmasked participants). It will result in spread, but not having superspreading is a big deal. The restaurants still seem to be enforcing some restrictions on indoor dining so that should help reduce superspreading.

It’s not really like a repeat of Sturgis - the virus is now everywhere, so reintroductions, while unhelpful, aren’t likely to result in massive new outbreaks (at least, not ones that wouldn’t have happened anyway). It’s what the rest of the country does in aggregate that is much more likely to be a problem - there are a few hundred thousand of active infections out there already nationwide (along with most of the variants most likely), everywhere, and it’s what people do every day to avoid those infections that is going to matter to the future trajectory more than what happens in Florida over the course of the week to a few tens of thousands of people (most of whom won’t be infected).

But of course, Spring Break parties are pretty unhelpful. No getting around that.

 

[madodel]

https://www.theolympian.com/news/coronavirus/article249981859.html entertaining and educational.

Edit: fixed link.

 

[JRP3]

https://www.theolympian.com/news/coronavirus/article249981859.htm entertaining and educational.

I get an error message.

 

[scottf200]

https://www.theolympian.com/news/coronavirus/article249981859.htm entertaining and educational.

I get an error message.

This link works but I didn't see at a glance what the diff was.

Title: Doctors remix ‘Hamilton’ song to celebrate COVID vaccine. Watch the video
BY MADDIE CAPRON MARCH 16, 2021 12:10 PM
https://www.theolympian.com/news/coronavirus/article249981859.html

 

[JRP3]

First link has the "l" missing from html.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Got my first Pfizer shot yesterday and feeling pretty good. Amazing how effective these mRNA vaccines are.....so long as I don't turn into the walking dead 6 months from now. Philadelphia shot supply appears to be growing exponentially. Feels like we'll start having to drag reluctant people in around April 10. Amazing.

Sounds like we're gonna go back and rebuild all flu shots via mRNA and they should have a similar effectiveness. Imagine going from 45% to 95% effective, that is world changing stuff!

Apologies, this has certainly been discuss. Just find it wildly interesting.

 

[TEG]

I notice the condition under which you are eligible for vaccine have started to diverge dramatically from place to place recently.
Seems the CDC recommendations were changing enough that various local entities just decided to make up their own "rules."

I noticed this today:

Contra Costa opens vaccine eligibility to ages 50 and older :: Press Releases :: Contra Costa Health

Contra Costa Health Services Press Releases.

cchealth.org

But only for people that live & work in that county.

Along with eligibility, there is also vaccine availably questions.

I am aware of various SF area people driving all the way to Modesto to get vaccine recently because they have more availability and more medical conditions they accept for eligibility...

Seems like some weird fallout from efforts to deliver more vaccine to areas that have been less inclined for locals to get vaccinated. So people from other areas are going out of their way to go find the vaccine...

 

[TEG]

I am still waiting to be eligible, and watching various items related to age, profession and medical history. Confusing to know what "gate" will open for me and when.

 

[JRP3]

My county just opened it up to 50+.

 

[cusetownusa]

My county just opened it up to 50+.

same here. Also, it’s very easy to get appointments now. Our county exec wants it to be open for everyone so that they can fill every time slot easier.

we are at about 34% of people in our county with at least 1 shot.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Imagine going from 45% to 95% effective, that is world changing stuff!

It's not clear this would happen with influenza quite to this degree. In general (though maybe not on short time scales) flu is a faster moving target (reassortment common, no proof-reading). However, it's certainly possible/likely mRNA vaccines will be able to be updated faster and maybe be more multivalent than existing vaccines (many are quadrivalent already), so in that sense they could end up being more effective, since they could be developed faster. The storage requirements are annoying though, so hopefully they'll be able to make some progress on stabilizing the vaccines a bit. Regardless, Moderna is starting phase 1 trials of their multivalent flu vaccine this year, so it's likely the future.

At least that's my understanding.

Keep an eye here tomorrow morning...hoping to see that jump from 9 million to 13 million vaccines from Pfizer posted here tomorrow (March 29th will post on March 23rd) - that would be the start of the flood, if it happens, about two weeks late:

National Weekly Pfizer Allocations | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

New weekly allocations of doses are posted every Tuesday. Beginning the following Thursday, states can begin ordering doses from that week’s new allocation of 1st doses. Beginning two weeks (Pfizer) or three weeks (Moderna) from the following Sunday, states can begin ordering doses from that...

data.cdc.gov

I am still waiting to be eligible, and watching various items related to age, profession and medical history. Confusing to know what "gate" will open for me and when.

I am eating like mad. I just have to get up to 167 pounds to be BMI of 25, just a couple pounds away for me, and I've been able to get there by REALLY tanking up with water, eating everything in sight for a couple days, and avoiding use of the restroom & exercise prior to the shot. It all makes sense. Everyone I know in their 20s and 30s in prime physical condition are getting the vaccine (I'm in my 40s), because if you've naturally got lots of good muscle mass on your upper body, the BMI 25 criteria is relatively easy to meet. Unfortunately I don't have that build - strong legs from cycling but nothing upper body. I think I'll qualify by Wednesday. In fact, end of day I am 5'8, rather than 5'8.5", and I just managed to weigh in at 165.5 (always heavier mid-day than first thing in the morning), so I'm basically there now. Success!

 

[madodel]

It's not clear this would happen with influenza quite to this degree. In general (though maybe not on short time scales) flu is a faster moving target (reassortment common, no proof-reading). However, it's certainly possible/likely mRNA vaccines will be able to be updated faster and maybe be more multivalent than existing vaccines (many are quadrivalent already), so in that sense they could end up being more effective, since they could be developed faster. The storage requirements are annoying though, so hopefully they'll be able to make some progress on stabilizing the vaccines a bit. Regardless, Moderna is starting phase 1 trials of their multivalent flu vaccine this year, so it's likely the future.

At least that's my understanding.

Keep an eye here tomorrow morning...hoping to see that jump from 9 million to 13 million vaccines from Pfizer posted here tomorrow (March 29th will post on March 23rd) - that would be the start of the flood, if it happens, about two weeks late:

National Weekly Pfizer Allocations | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

New weekly allocations of doses are posted every Tuesday. Beginning the following Thursday, states can begin ordering doses from that week’s new allocation of 1st doses. Beginning two weeks (Pfizer) or three weeks (Moderna) from the following Sunday, states can begin ordering doses from that...

data.cdc.gov

I am eating like mad. I just have to get up to 167 pounds to be BMI of 25, just a couple pounds away for me, and I've been able to get there by REALLY tanking up with water, eating everything in sight for a couple days, and avoiding use of the restroom & exercise prior to the shot. It all makes sense. Everyone I know in their 20s and 30s in prime physical condition are getting the vaccine (I'm in my 40s), because if you've naturally got lots of good muscle mass on your upper body, the BMI 25 criteria is relatively easy to meet. Unfortunately I don't have that build - strong legs from cycling but nothing upper body. I think I'll qualify by Wednesday. In fact, end of day I am 5'8, rather than 5'8.5", and I just managed to weigh in at 165.5 (always heavier mid-day than first thing in the morning), so I'm basically there now. Success!

Wouldn't it be easier to just take up smoking?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Wouldn't it be easier to just take up smoking?

I think my method is much less hazardous. They say that any time you can spend at lower weights is helpful, so I'll just burn this off next week.

Looks like the Navajo Nation is going to end up with COVID-19 killing around 1233 people, which is 0.7% of the 173k people on the reservation (I do not know the actual denominator for that 1233 number). Their case fatality rate was over 4%. I would guess 40% of the population was infected, very roughly.

Thankfully, after fully immunizing 74000 people (43% of the population), with another 38k partially vaccinated (for a total of 65%), it looks like COVID-19 is finished there, at least for now. The number of cases is at a 7-day average not seen since March 25th, 2020. It seems pretty likely they have local herd immunity - it'll be interesting to see how it settles out in the next two to four weeks or so.

Data

Navajo Nation Department of Health

www.ndoh.navajo-nsn.gov

 

[TEG]

It's not clear this would happen with influenza quite to this degree. In general (though maybe not on short time scales) flu is a faster moving target (reassortment common, no proof-reading). However, it's certainly possible/likely mRNA vaccines will be able to be updated faster and maybe be more multivalent than existing vaccines (many are quadrivalent already), so in that sense they could end up being more effective, since they could be developed faster. The storage requirements are annoying though, so hopefully they'll be able to make some progress on stabilizing the vaccines a bit. Regardless, Moderna is starting phase 1 trials of their multivalent flu vaccine this year, so it's likely the future.

Given all the things we have seen happen recently, this doesn't seem too far into science fiction territory:

Robots that walk among us and if you cough a virus on one of them it sequences the virus, and sends a message to all the local mRNA vaccine factories to start producing and dispensing mRNA vaccines to the affected area so that the virus get squashed before it spreads anywhere else...

 

[Jeff N]

B.1.1.7 continues to cause trouble in Europe.

Germany imposes strict lockdown over Easter – DW – 03/23/2021

"We are in a new pandemic" due to the spread of coronavirus variants, Chancellor Angela Merkel has said. German federal and state leaders have agreed on a radical shutdown over the Easter holidays.

www.dw.com

 

[EVNow]

Finished my second dose. Just had some headache for a few hours. I’ll try to get a test of antibodies in a couple of weeks to check.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I’ll try to get a test of antibodies in a couple of weeks to check.

As was mentioned earlier here, make sure to select an antibody test that is designed to pick up antibodies to spike only. Lots of tests out there that won’t work apparently.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Trial looking at mixing-and-matching different COVID vaccines could be game-changer

"More than 800 volunteers aged 50 and above are taking part in the trial. Some are given a Pfizer "prime" shot followed by an AstraZeneca booster, a second group gets AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer, and a third set of participants gets the same vaccine twice — the standard way — for comparison.
Shots are being administered at both four and twelve-week gaps in different trial groups to see what works best."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Trial looking at mixing-and-matching different COVID vaccines could be game-changer

"More than 800 volunteers aged 50 and above are taking part in the trial. Some are given a Pfizer "prime" shot followed by an AstraZeneca booster, a second group gets AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer, and a third set of participants gets the same vaccine twice — the standard way — for comparison.
Shots are being administered at both four and twelve-week gaps in different trial groups to see what works best."

It does seem like diversity would be good. Clearly there is some diversity provided by an AZ booster (but in general it doesn't seem well targeted any variant, for whatever reason - whether that is because it is not prefusion stabilized, I do not know). I still suspect it's going to be better to get diversity with a vaccine booster that is actually targeted at some of these other variants (what Moderna's new trial is doing). I'm betting the Pfizer prime + booster will do better than Pfizer prime + AZ booster.

It's interesting that Pfizer has indicated that they only plan to boost, not modify their vaccine, so far. I think that's a mistake, though it's not clear at the moment it will matter, since against all current variants I think the boosted Pfizer (three shots) will probably still work really well. (Definitely still TBD since we still only have antibody correlates without clear clinical evidence.)

In that podcast with Shane Crotty, he seemed to be suggesting that T-cell responses may not be as long lasting for mRNA vaccines, as compared to viral-vector types, but he didn't actually say that explicitly so not sure whether that is what he meant. I'm not sure whether there's any immunological reason that they would be different, though. I guess we'll see. No one seems to know how well the immune system will remember this virus. Crotty seemed to think boosters would likely be required though, and the more boosters, the better the memory will get.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know whether this was discussed here (didn't find in search) ... but the 10% efficacy of AZ against South African variant is troubling.

Oxford Covid vaccine has 10% efficacy against South African variant, study suggests

Small-scale trial of vaccine shows it offers very little protection against mild to moderate infection

www.theguardian.com