Coronavirus

[NikolaACDC]

MDH reports 89 'breakthrough' cases of COVID-19 after becoming fully vaccinated; Ehresmann says 'it's not surprising'

"The Minnesota Department of Health has identified 89 "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19.
Director of Infectious Diseases Kris Ehresmann said a "breakthrough" case is when a person gets COVID-19 after the two weeks following getting fully vaccinated. She said it's not surprising.
"No, no, because the vaccine is not 100% effective," she said.

Ehresmann said so far, MDH has interviewed 81% of the 89 people with "breakthrough" cases.
MDH reports 89 'breakthrough' cases of COVID-19 after becoming fully vaccinated; Ehresmann says 'it's not surprising'
KSTP
"There are 30 of 72 cases [that] were symptomatic, so that means that 42 of 72 cases didn't have any symptoms at all, and so I think that's important to keep in mind," Ehresmann said.

She says it means even if you're vaccinated, you could still get the disease, be asymptomatic and pass it along to someone else.

"That's why we are continuing to say even though you've been vaccinated, it's important when you're out and about, that you continue to mask, that's why health care workers continue to need to wear personal protective equipment on the job even if they've been vaccinated," she said. "

 

[SMAlset]

More from tonight on Michigan’s rapidly rising Covid statistics, particularly the rise among younger people:

Michigan sees ‘alarming increase’ in COVID-19 hospitalizations among unvaccinated adults

COVID-19 daily hospitalization data indicates that the large growth in hospitalizations is occurring among younger age groups.

www.mlive.com

“The increases are being driven by younger adults: Since March 1, hospitalizations increased by 633% for adults ages 30-39 and by 800% for adults ages 40-49, according to inpatient data collected by the MHA.....

....The data also indicates that, although older adults still have a higher risk of hospitalizations, the percentage of hospitalized patients who are younger than 40 years old has doubled, showing that adults of any age are vulnerable to complications from the disease, the press release said.”

 

[TespaceX]

MDH reports 89 'breakthrough' cases of COVID-19 after becoming fully vaccinated; Ehresmann says 'it's not surprising'

"The Minnesota Department of Health has identified 89 "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19.
Director of Infectious Diseases Kris Ehresmann said a "breakthrough" case is when a person gets COVID-19 after the two weeks following getting fully vaccinated. She said it's not surprising.
"No, no, because the vaccine is not 100% effective," she said.

Ehresmann said so far, MDH has interviewed 81% of the 89 people with "breakthrough" cases.
MDH reports 89 'breakthrough' cases of COVID-19 after becoming fully vaccinated; Ehresmann says 'it's not surprising'
KSTP
"There are 30 of 72 cases [that] were symptomatic, so that means that 42 of 72 cases didn't have any symptoms at all, and so I think that's important to keep in mind," Ehresmann said.

She says it means even if you're vaccinated, you could still get the disease, be asymptomatic and pass it along to someone else.

"That's why we are continuing to say even though you've been vaccinated, it's important when you're out and about, that you continue to mask, that's why health care workers continue to need to wear personal protective equipment on the job even if they've been vaccinated," she said. "

I’m curious to know why those 42 asymptomatic people were tested. If they were vaccinated and showed no symptoms, what was the purpose of getting tested? This probably means there’s a lot more people (not suggesting a significant proportion) out there who are asymptomatic after being vaccinated, which as the article mentions is expected.

Is it just me, or do others also get the feeling that the daily new cases curve looks like it’s about to start going back up now?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Re Michigan: yeah, when 2/3 of the deaths are of younger people, which will happen soon (May?), I suspect that will be clarifying for those who are still not vaccinated or thinking they do not need to be. There seems to be this weird impression that this disease does not kill young people (I wonder why...). But it is actually quite deadly, just 10-100x less deadly than it is for older people. Which is really dangerous!

Hopefully they can surge some vaccines to hotspots, since these things do take a few weeks to play out, so there is probably benefit to doing so.

Is it just me, or do others also get the feeling that the daily new cases curve looks like it’s about to start going back up now?

It already is. I expect it will rise (hopefully not steeply!) for 2-3 more weeks and then tail off. Hopefully sooner, but very hard to say.

 

[cusetownusa]

Another data point from my area....Locally, while our numbers are still low, about 75% of cases are people under 40 now. With a big chunk of them being college kids in dorms.

our local county exec keeps pleading with the state to allow the county to open up the vaccinations. For example, He said he could vaccinate all the college dorm students (about 8,000) in one week which would help with the issue of young people spreading the virus. They are having a tough time filling up all of the vaccine appointments.

also, I know a few pharmacist at different Walgreens, because of the states vaccine eligibility restrictions they frequently have to throw out unused vaccines at the end of the day. They also want the restrictions lifted. At this point, anyone that is high risk either has had the shots, or could easily get a shot if they wanted.

 

[madodel]

My wife had to do a TEE (TransEsophageal Echocardiogram) on an intubated COVID patient yesterday. Even though she is fully vaccinated she still triple masks. Again she says the patients in the ICU now are very sick and most will probably die. She doesn't have the statistics on them since she only reads the charts on those she has to do consults or procedures on. But it's getting grim again. Though still not many COVID cases in the hospital, just sicker people.

 

[NikolaACDC]

I’m curious to know why those 42 asymptomatic people were tested. If they were vaccinated and showed no symptoms, what was the purpose of getting tested? This probably means there’s a lot more people (not suggesting a significant proportion) out there who are asymptomatic after being vaccinated, which as the article mentions is expected.

Is it just me, or do others also get the feeling that the daily new cases curve looks like it’s about to start going back up now?

This article
Minnesota reports 89 COVID-19 cases in vaccinated individuals
mentions
"State health officials interviewed 72 of the patients and found 30 had symptomatic COVID-19.
Many were identified through routine testing in long-term care facilities."

The rehab-facility my wife works at here in MN has vaccinated all patients and employees. They still test everybody once a week.

 

[uujjj2]

Went for the second Moderna shot today in Indio, California.
There was a surplus of vaccine, very few people present compared to 28 days ago. There are lots of open slots today, no waiting.
This is true for most of Southern California from what employees and friends have told me.

Open appointment slots does not mean a surplus of vaccine. But if there really is a surplus of vaccine, that's the signal to expand eligibility. No need to wait for state/federal directives. California allows counties to expand eligibility beyond the state criteria, but only a few counties have actually done so.

 

[jerry33]

Open appointment slots does not mean a surplus of vaccine. But if there really is a surplus of vaccine, that's the signal to expand eligibility. No need to wait for state/federal directives. California allows counties to expand eligibility beyond the state criteria, but only a few counties have actually done so.

Just got the message that vaccine slots are available for 18+. Announcement email arrived at 10:12, all appointments taken email arrived at 10:33.

 

[EVNow]

also, I know a few pharmacist at different Walgreens, because of the states vaccine eligibility restrictions they frequently have to throw out unused vaccines at the end of the day.

I doubt this is actually correct. Most states allow using the vaccines that will go bad otherwise. Local pharmacies have waiting lists that anyone can put their names on and get called when thy have extra doses.

 

[EVNow]

This article
Minnesota reports 89 COVID-19 cases in vaccinated individuals
mentions
"State health officials interviewed 72 of the patients and found 30 had symptomatic COVID-19.
Many were identified through routine testing in long-term care facilities."

The rehab-facility my wife works at here in MN has vaccinated all patients and employees. They still test everybody once a week.

That 72 number is looking awfully high considering an effectiveness rate > 90%. But without needed extra information - its just a scary clickbait.

How many people who had the vaccines did they test in total ? Over how many days of testing is this ? What is the infection rate among comparable demo without vaccines ...

 

[uujjj2]

Just got the message that vaccine slots are available for 18+. Announcement email arrived at 10:12, all appointments taken email arrived at 10:33.

The Feds are distributing vaccine by population. I wonder if states/counties with a high percentage of anti-vaxxers are going to open eligibility a lot faster, be easier to get appointments. Places where almost everyone wants the vaccine (like here in San Jose) are going to be slower and harder to get appointments.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That 72 number is looking awfully high considering an effectiveness rate > 90%. But without needed extra information - its just a scary clickbait.

How many people who had the vaccines did they test in total ? Over how many days of testing is this ? What is the infection rate among comparable demo without vaccines ...

Yep, it's also potentially a high-risk group. It's well known that the vaccines have somewhat lower efficacy in older age groups. I think it's also really hard to use 2 weeks after second dose as a metric for evaluating efficacy. It may take longer than that, due to incubation time of the virus (can be 5-10 days with a low initial dose!). I'd prefer to see a metric of 4 weeks after the second dose. You really want to wait plenty of time after that second dose (in some people it may be as fast as 5 days to get a good response, but longer is better).

And yes, it's pointless to quote any numbers without a denominator.

The only great data we have is from Israel, which demonstrates about 98-99% efficacy 40-50 days or so into the vaccination schedule (however their plots are a bit suspect so they still have data issues).

Associations of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness with patient age and comorbidities

Vaccinations are considered the major tool to curb the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A randomized placebo-controlled trial of the BNT162b2 vaccine has demonstrated a 95% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 disease. These results are now corroborated with statistical analyses of real-world vaccination...

www.medrxiv.org

The issue with the plot is the discontinuity at 30 days - that is clearly not physically possible for it to be that sharp (that much of a step is possible but not all people will convert at the same time like that), and they probably have a data gathering difference at that time. Again, this is Pfizer so two weeks after the second dose would be 35 days. So you can see that maximum efficacy has not been reached at that point. (I assume these are plotted as days from first vaccine to emergence of symptoms (not day of positive test) - but need to read the paper for that detail.) So you'd only see day of positive test go to maximum efficacy around day 40 or so (nearly three weeks after the second dose), assuming a few days to get a test & result.

 

[EVNow]

The issue with the plot is the discontinuity at 30 days - that is clearly not physically possible for it to be that sharp (that much of a step is possible but not all people will convert at the same time like that), and they probably have a data gathering difference at that time.

Something to do with 2nd dose around 30 days ? Or is that for people with only one shot ... ?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Something to do with 2nd dose around 30 days ? Or is that for people with only one shot ... ?

No this is Pfizer, so second dose is around day 21. I'm just saying that discontinuity is not physical. The size of the drop is physically possible, but it's not reasonable in a large population being sampled for it to all occur at the exact same time - so the sharpness of it (the discontinuity) is not physical. There is going to be variation on how long it takes to seroconvert. I'd expect that drop to occur over 3-5 days, not 2.

 

[cusetownusa]

I doubt this is actually correct. Most states allow using the vaccines that will go bad otherwise. Local pharmacies have waiting lists that anyone can put their names on and get called when thy have extra doses.

You can call and put yourself on the waiting list at a Walgreens...just need to call whatever store you want to be put on. This is how a few of my friends got their shots. But if there aren't enough people then they end up getting thrown out. There are so many ways locally to get shots (kinney drugs, wegmans, walgreens, State run site that does 6,000-7,000 per day, etc.). Its not surprising that some go unused at this point.

About 35% of people in my County have had at least 1 shot. I am assuming that is close to 50% of adults.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

As fully expected, California will be open to everyone age 16 & up on April 15th. 50 and older on April 1st.

Paywall, but for the record: All California adults will be eligible for vaccine April 15; 50 and older starting April 1

You can call and put yourself on the waiting list at a Walgreens

Wait list at CVS has been a total bust for me (going on 2.5 weeks now). I have my first dose now; I realized I had to be more proactive, but left myself on the list just to see when/if they call. They did claim they are working through it but I suspect the list is a last resort, even though they don't say so.

 

[Mark57]

I get my second Pfizer shot tomorrow. They just confirmed if I was coming. It can't come soon enough for me.

 

[dhanson865]

I have an appointment for my first shot tomorrow, I'll let you know if my arm falls off.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

which demonstrates about 98-99% efficacy 40-50 days or so into the vaccination schedule

To be clear, the plots are for efficacy against no COVID positive test. That's closer to 95% (that's what is shown in the attached plot). Efficacy against symptomatic infection is more like 98-99%, as is indicated in the paper.

And it does look like these are plotted vs. date of positive test which is not what I said above, but might only be a couple days difference. Shows maximum efficacy for positive test result, for symptomatic illness by 40 days, nearly 3 weeks post vaccine. Does not quite plateau until then. It also shows a significant dropoff in efficacy for older people 80-90 years old (about twice the chance of getting infected, so perhaps 90% efficacy).