Coronavirus

[jerry33]

It is really unclear that you are following the kid issue closely. As well remember that 0-5 year olds are not protected. Pfizer April and Moderna March?

I had to read these three times to get the meaning. A lot of people will interpret this as "Don't send your kids to the hospital [if they get Covid]". It should be: Let's protect the kids by ... so that the meaning is clear.

 

[golfcart]

you somewhat answer your question yourself

Biology is not static.
Evolution is continuous.
unvaccinated at basically “human bioreactors, capable of churning out mutations”
“plague rats” by another description

I said I have rebuttals to some of the points I made, I was just laying out the arguments. Your concern is valid IMO less infections is better for a multitude of reasons and vaccines reduce infections.

That said, what we are seeing now is the emergence of a relatively vaccine resistant mutation (omicron) that infects both the vaccinated and unvaccinated and is rapidly spreading in both populations. It is possible that other strains will emerge, possibly from vaccinated people, that are resistant to the current vaccines and ones in development. The "pandemic of the unvaccinated" line is pretty much nonsense at this point as vaccines never completely prevented infection to begin with. This is another case where we need to be honest about what the vaccines do and do not do. They reduce the likelyhood of severe illness, hopitalization, and death by an order of magnitude and reduce the likelyhood of infection by some non-trivial amount but is probably hard to calculate since we can't know asymptomatic cases right now. The COVID-zero ship sailed a long time ago even if we had 100% vaccination rates unfortunately.

 

[golfcart]

I had to read these three times to get the meaning. A lot of people will interpret this as "Don't send your kids to the hospital [if they get Covid]". It should be: Let's protect the kids by ... so that the meaning is clear.

I took it that way as well. And I agree that vaccinating your kids is prudent even with their relatively low risk of severe illness or death.

 

[winfield100]

I said I have rebuttals to some of the points I made, I was just laying out the arguments. Your concern is valid IMO less infections is better for a multitude of reasons and vaccines reduce infections.

That said, what we are seeing now is the emergence of a relatively vaccine resistant mutation (omicron) that infects both the vaccinated and unvaccinated and is rapidly spreading in both populations. It is possible that other strains will emerge, possibly from vaccinated people, that are resistant to the current vaccines and ones in development. The "pandemic of the unvaccinated" line is pretty much nonsense at this point as vaccines never completely prevented infection to begin with. This is another case where we need to be honest about what the vaccines do and do not do. They reduce the likelyhood of severe illness, hopitalization, and death by an order of magnitude and reduce the likelyhood of infection by some non-trivial amount but is probably hard to calculate since we can't know asymptomatic cases right now. The COVID-zero ship sailed a long time ago even if we had 100% vaccination rates unfortunately.

i neither said nor implied Covid-zero, but apologize for not being more explicit.
evolution is continuous
the vaccinations in this example _supress_, possibly not eliminate
the vaccinations if i understand correctly give your immune system the ability not to be overwhelmed

no vaccinations = the ability to be a human bioreactor churning out all kinds of mutations, good and bad for the virus, with an overwhelmed immune system, then released into the wild, to other carriers, vaccinated and unvaccinated, to die off or flourish.

the more vaccinations help the statistics of survival of all, and the death rates of vaccinated vs unvaccinated gives truth to the “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, as, again, the unvaccinated are far more efficient at churning out more variants

 

[golfcart]

the more vaccinations help the statistics of survival of all

Agreed!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is another case where we need to be honest about what the vaccines do and do not do.

infects both the vaccinated and unvaccinated and is rapidly spreading in both populations.

Yes, we should be clear about it.
Omicron appears to be spreading at a 3x lower (diagnosed) rate in a much more vulnerable and immunocompromised vaccinated population. What exactly the true efficacy is is very hard to measure, given the presence (and rapidly increasing presence) of infection-acquired immunity in the unvaccinated population. NY graphs the approximate efficacy FYI, it seems to be in the 80s, though there are lots of caveats to that number as mentioned above.

Anyway, the efficacy of the vaccine (especially when boosted!) at preventing infection appears to still be quite substantial. Perhaps just half (or a bit less) of all cases are vaccinated in spite of there being much larger numbers of vaccinated individuals.

We need to be honest about that.

 

[scottf200]

I had to read these three times to get the meaning. A lot of people will interpret this as "Don't send your kids to the hospital [if they get Covid]". It should be: Let's protect the kids by ... so that the meaning is clear.

I took it that way as well. And I agree that vaccinating your kids is prudent even with their relatively low risk of severe illness or death.

Sorry folks ... I guess I was focusing on the visual graphics more so than the words. If I had young kids I would definitely get them vaccinated for corona like we did for numerous other vaccination avoidance illnesses. Lot of parents of kids 0-18 were feeling anxious/trapped in the past couple years and it eases as more age ranges get opened up for vaccinations. Now the 0-5 ones are still pretty concerned. I follow some that are data or medical professionals.

 

[golfcart]

Yes, we should be clear about it.
Omicron appears to be spreading at a 3x lower (diagnosed) rate in a much more vulnerable and immunocompromised vaccinated population. What exactly the true efficacy is is very hard to measure, given the presence (and rapidly increasing presence) of infection-acquired immunity in the unvaccinated population. NY graphs the approximate efficacy FYI, it seems to be in the 80s, though there are lots of caveats to that number as mentioned above.

Anyway, the efficacy of the vaccine (especially when boosted!) at preventing infection appears to still be quite substantial. Perhaps just half (or a bit less) of all cases are vaccinated in spite of there being much larger numbers of vaccinated individuals.

We need to be honest about that.

Thats all I was saying. The tone that is often used describing the unvaccinated in this thread (IMO) implies that the vaccine magically makes you unable to catch or spread COVID. The vaccine is a risk reduction, and an amazing one at that given how quickly they were developed, but it is not a cure. 100% vaccination rates would not end COVID and new vaccine resistant variants would likely still emerge and propagate at some point in that imaginary 100% vaccinated population.

I'm with you, if Omicron turns out to be mild and provide good protection against existing variants like Delta then it will end up being a (net) blessing in the long run. I am concerned about availability of care in the next few weeks but there is really nothing we can do at this point unless they want another "2 weeks to slow the spread" and its probably too late for that to be effective even if compliance was likely (which I don't think it would be).

As an aside, since you seem pretty well read on the virus... What do you think the IFR of COVID is at this point given vaccination rates, rates of previous infection, and the prevalence of omicron? I realize it is much more contagious right now but are we close to flu parity yet (~0.1%)?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What do you think the IFR of COVID is at this point given vaccination rates, rates of previous infection, and the prevalence of omicron? I realize it is much more contagious right now but are we close to flu parity yet (~0.1%)?

I really have no idea; very hard to determine without a lot of good data at this point; we have no idea the balance of omicron and delta infections and how they are resolving. But if I were forced to guess, with vaccination and with omicron specifically, it’s probably on the order of a severe influenza. But it seems to be considerably more contagious which is a problem. It’s a moving target too as Omicron rips through creating immunity.

In the end I have no idea. I don’t think we are the point of true endemicity yet; not everyone has got it enough times. When we get there we’ll hopefully be looking at something slightly less severe than flu but I am not sure how it will play out.

I’m actually not certain that COVID in the end stage (if there is one) will have the same surge capability as an annual flu (which changes drastically from year to year with different types circulating). It’s a question of whether COVID ever “settles” and stops changing its current rate, and how effective it is at avoiding immunity. Very hard to predict.

Everyone has been wrong so far, so people talking confidently about endemicity could be wrong, just as people were wrong that the vaccines would maintain high efficacy against infection as variants came along. The end game is far from clear, to me at least.

 

[dhanson865]

DeSantis admits to finding 1 million expired COVID-19 tests stockpiled in warehouse

The explosive allegation comes as thousands of people wait hours in long lines to receive a COVID-19 test.

nbc-2.com

word is most of them expired in December

 

[bkp_duke]

DeSantis admits to finding 1 million expired COVID-19 tests stockpiled in warehouse

The explosive allegation comes as thousands of people wait hours in long lines to receive a COVID-19 test.

nbc-2.com

word is most of them expired in December

Doubt it. Most of these kinds of tests would have a 3+ year expiration date.

 

[Slipstream]

Doubt it. Most of these kinds of tests would have a 3+ year expiration date.

Agreed. Some companies have extended the expiry date of their tests as well. Some examples:

https://www.tchd.org/DocumentCenter/View/9226/Expiry-date-extension-regarding-BinaxNOW-COVID-19-Ag-Card-Home-Test?bidId=

https://www.lucirahealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Notice_of_Shelf_Life_Extension.pdf

https://tdem.texas.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Care-Start-Shelf-Life-Extension.pdf

 

[wdolson]

I had to read these three times to get the meaning. A lot of people will interpret this as "Don't send your kids to the hospital [if they get Covid]". It should be: Let's protect the kids by ... so that the meaning is clear.

I saw an interview with Anthony Fauci where he clarified the numbers for children hospitalized with COVID (at least in the US). He pointed out that the bulk of children who are in the hospital with COVID are not there because of COVID. They went to the hospital for something else and tested positive for COVID when they were admitted.

 

[scottf200]

Doubt it. Most of these kinds of tests would have a 3+ year expiration date.

They said it in a video ... 800K to 1M.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479119173263319043

 

[dhanson865]

Doubt it. Most of these kinds of tests would have a 3+ year expiration date.

Tell that to the Florida officials that have confirmed repeatedly that the tests are expired.

 

[bhzmark]

Doubt it. Most of these kinds of tests would have a 3+ year expiration date.

My Abbot Binax boxes say Lot 2021-11-24 (I guess the mfr date) and “REF 2022-10-12” I guess the expiration date. so about ~10 month shelf life.

What would actually expire? The testing solution? or just the control particles that make the pink control line?

 

[bkp_duke]

My Abbot Binax boxes say Lot 2021-11-24 (I guess the mfr date) and “REF 2022-10-12” I guess the expiration date. so about ~10 month shelf life.

What would actually expire? The testing solution? or just the control particles that make the pink control line?

Well, those are pretty short dated, I'm very surprised. We used these in the lab all the time (antigen kits), and while they need to be stored at 4C for maximum shelf life, they can sit at room temperature for a long long time. The solution is a salt-base that lasts basically forever on antigen kits. It's the antibodies bound to the testing strip that cause the color change which will unfold under high temps.

Best guess, someone is covering their butts b/c they really don't know how long they will last, so better safe to put short expiration dates in.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Coronavirus has never been about case counts.

Now you tell us, ha. For almost two years it was Eradicate! Crush the curve! Test and Trace! I was fully onboard in the very early days, but it quickly became obvious we didn't have the leadership or the stomach for it.

Holiday reporting is still screwing up the numbers, but UK seems to be plateauing around 180k/day. As in South Africa, Omicron's CFR seems to be much lower than Delta. Similar story in Denmark. France is over 200k on the 7 day average and recently had a single 300k+ day. 200k in France scaled to the US population is 1+ million (>0.3% of population per day). US hotspots (metro area NYC, Boston, Miami-Dade, etc.) are above that at 0.4-0.5%/day. Tiny Loving county in TX is 1.4%, but that's only 2-3 cases per day.

Think the anti-vaxxers would take CORBEVAX, developed in TX without patents or government money? Ha.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Now you tell us, ha. For almost two years it was Eradicate! Crush the curve! Test and Trace! I was fully onboard in the very early days, but it quickly became obvious we didn't have the leadership or the stomach for it.

Haha. Eradication also reduces hospital loading so it’s still not about case counts. That’s not the point of eradication, it’s just a byproduct.

I also wanted eradication, but obviously not possible in this country in retrospect. To me it seems that history has shown eradication is clearly better than the alternative economically, societally, etc. But it is not possible in our country. It’s partly about leadership but human behavior also basically makes it impossible without draconian restrictions. Once you get to zero it’s much much less restrictive than our current state though (that’s the huge advantage).

 

[JRP3]

But it is not possible in our country.

Doesn't seem possible in most countries.