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we can only wait and watch to see if that is true.
Hopefully it will also drop quickly, as the breadth is as important as the peak value. Fortunate that we have a less virulent virus (rather than more virulent like the Delta wave!) combined with more immunity.

Short retirement!:


50 years old. One of the leading causes of death in LEOs. Served honorably, until he started unnecessarily potentially exposing those he served to a dangerous disease. Very unfortunate and preventable death.

When are certain people in positions of authority going to come around and stop the anti-vax nonsense? Vaccination is clearly essential.
 
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When are certain people in positions of authority going to come around and stop the anti-vax nonsense?

Maybe Laura will do a follow-up segment? That would be the responsible thing to do. Especially since she is almost certainly vaccinated. I just simply don’t get the anti-vax stuff. Should all the mandates now be dropped, to be replaced by constant hectoring by the authorities and a massive public service announcement campaign that you MUST get vaccinated? Would that help? I have no idea. I can only conclude that we are being attacked with a misinformation campaign, orchestrated by a foreign power. Though I am not much one for such fanciful theories, so maybe it is just plain old-fashioned American obstinacy, which would perhaps be a simpler explanation (though a damaging propaganda war waged by useful idiots is not really lacking in historical precedent)? I just don’t know anymore, and I simply do not get it.

 
Nobody is removing your freedoms by having different beliefs and of course the government is using fear to get power. People are rationally afraid of the impacts of this pandemic and want the government to respond, why wouldn't that lead to more power? In some situations that power is probably justified but that doesn't mean that every response they have is justified or that they won't use those powers for other things once they have them. You don't have to look much further than the growth of the surveillance state since 9/11 to see how fear is used during a crisis to garner powers that aren't given back once the crisis is over and are expanded to include a whole bunch of things that they weren't originally intended for. The communist Chinese governments use of a social credit system to bestow privileges to citizens comes to mind as a possible outcome. Some people are wary of that.

So once again, lets tell the truth and not just mock people with different views. A different view of how to balance the various costs and benefits of policy when it comes to rights, freedoms, and restrictions is not misinformation... it is simply a different view. Misinformation is lying, which there is plenty of, but nothing Elon said in those tweets is misinformation. We are all allowed opinions, Elon included, and his opinion in those tweets seems to be that if we give the goverment the power to fire people from their jobs over vaccinations in this particular crisis that the power will not be given back when the crisis is over but will simply be used to make other things "requirements" down the road. Some people are OK with that but Elon is not for whatever reasons he has.

The Canadian truckers are specifically protesting against vaccine mandates in their industry for cross border truckers handed down by the Canadian government. The government is telling them that they cannot make a living if they do not get their shots. These are essential workers keeping the supply chain moving while we sit at our computers half the day and argue about this nonsense on the internet. The idea that firing these people is a good idea, during a supply chain crisis and worker shortage in that industry, is at least debatable and possibly just dumb. Especially now that we know with Omicron that the infection rate for vaccinated people is pretty high (I've read 75%), prior infection provides robust immunity that is at least comparable to vaccines (many have been previously infected because they've been out working this entire time), and vaccinated people shed similar amounts of the virus as unvaccinated people when infected (for a couple days less on average).

While I agree that they should get their shots, because it reduces their risk of severe disease and death by an order of magnitude which is bad for them and puts extra strain on the healthcare system, I have serious concerns about these types of mandates especially at this stage of the pandemic. The amount of people left after omicron that aren't either vaccinated, previously infected, or both is really not going to be that large and the ill-will that these mandates will create will have both short and long term implications in the economy and future elections.

The newfound tolerance for authoritarianism in traditionally "liberal" circles the last few years is an interesting phenomenon... I suppose it should have been obvious when they proclaimed people "voted against their own self interest" in 2016. Statements like that let you know that they thought they knew better than you did what was good for you. All I am saying is be careful what you wish for. What if these newfound powers are in the hands of some clown like Trump or AOC in 2024... because at this rate those might be our two options.

While governments have done power grabs and then not given it back, the Patriot Act being an example, there are also cases where governments have taken powers in an emergency and then given them back. That frequently happens after a natural disaster like a hurricane, tornado, or severe earthquake. It also happened during the world wars in the US and many other countries.

And pertinent to this discussion, it has happened throughout American history many times in past epidemics and pandemics. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so memories of the last one have essentially left living memory. The only people alive who remember the 1918 flu pandemic were small children when it happened and are extremely elderly now.

Mandatory quarantine of people who had been exposed to diseases was a common occurrence in this country's history as well as many other countries. The measures taken by governments were often more draconian than what we see today. Typhoid Mary ended up imprisoned on an island on the Hudson River for the rest of her life. There was a leper colony in Hawaii.

Vaccine mandates are also common. As people upthread pointed out mandates to go to school and in the military as well as for international travel are all common and have been most of our lives. My grandfather had a bad reaction to the vaccines given to him in 1917 to ship out to France and lost all his hair. He got little sympathy, they were mandated and he was an ambulance driver in the war.

The roll out for the COVID vaccines were the fastest in history. We have a wealth of data on their safety and so far the side effects from the vaccines are much milder than from the infection they are preventing. The flu vaccine on the other hand is something I've never had. I haven't had the flu as an adult, the risk of a bad outcome from the flu if you don't have risk factors is low, and the vaccine can have some side effects (though also relatively uncommon). I choose not to get it because of those factors.

The risks from even Omicron are vastly higher than the flu. Its far more contagious and I did get sicker with it than I have with any bug since I had the chicken pox at 28. It was shorter than the original COVID I had in early 2020, but I felt worse.

I haven't gotten the booster because my antibody levels are still decent. the infection in December was essentially my booster, so I'll wait. By the time I am ready for the booster the Omicron specific booster might be available which will probably be more effective.

Even if people aren't getting hospitalized at the same rates with Omicron, it's putting a big strain on the hospital system because of the sheer numbers of people infected. The fast spread of this variant is having an impact on the economy because so many people are out of work sick. And some people don't kick Omicron easily. One person my partner works with and a client of hers have had Omicron cases that have dragged on for a month. Her work colleague does a lot from home, so he's able to continue at about 80% effectiveness, but he sounds awful when she and he talk on the phone (she frequently uses speakerphone).

Right now we don't have a great vaccine for Omicron, but hopefully that will be solved soon. But the old vaccines do help prevent Omicron for at least a couple of months, so they aren't useless. Even if people aren't dying at the same rate with Omicron, they are getting sick enough to be out of work and that is having an impact. Also a large enough number are sick enough to end up in the hospital and that is putting a strain on hospital systems around the country. Even if most of those people go home, it's expensive, and a lot of people who need hospital services aren't getting them because elective surgeries are getting put off.

Vaccines have become a political issue and they shouldn't have. Because the push back is so high, I think they should be limited, but if it wasn't a political issue, I would be for them. This is a public health emergency and there is a lot of history pre-1918 for measures far more draconian than what we have seen thus far and all those measures were lifted when the emergency passed.
 
Stark difference in cases/death ratio early on vs late. Definitely benefit to delaying infection.
To be fair at least with the first wave, we were significantly undercounting cases due to a lack of testing infrastructure.

Though I also guess with Omicron, we still lack sufficient testing infrastructure and fairly readily available at-home antigen tests also suppressed case counts.

I attribute the significant reduction in deaths to vaccines and to a less degree, survivors of previous infections.
 
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The breakthrough rate is 75% for what level of vaccination? Also, what is your source for virus shedding?

It has been clear to most of us that a booster is necessary for decent protection against symptomatic infection from omicron.

Two doses, the current definition of fully vaccinated. Attack rate at Norway event was 74%. Small sample but well tracked.

Norway Super spreader

“Virus production and the duration of acute infection were similar for all of the variants. However, breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals cleared faster — on average, in 5.5 days — than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which took an average of 7.5 days to clear.”

Shorter duration


My only point was to combat the misinformation that unvaccinated individuals are somehow uniquely responsible for spreading this or causing variants. Clearly they are not. Vaccination for COVID does a lot of great things but it does not prevent infection or spread.
 
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While governments have done power grabs and then not given it back, the Patriot Act being an example, there are also cases where governments have taken powers in an emergency and then given them back. That frequently happens after a natural disaster like a hurricane, tornado, or severe earthquake. It also happened during the world wars in the US and many other countries.

And pertinent to this discussion, it has happened throughout American history many times in past epidemics and pandemics. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so memories of the last one have essentially left living memory. The only people alive who remember the 1918 flu pandemic were small children when it happened and are extremely elderly now.

Mandatory quarantine of people who had been exposed to diseases was a common occurrence in this country's history as well as many other countries. The measures taken by governments were often more draconian than what we see today. Typhoid Mary ended up imprisoned on an island on the Hudson River for the rest of her life. There was a leper colony in Hawaii.

Vaccine mandates are also common. As people upthread pointed out mandates to go to school and in the military as well as for international travel are all common and have been most of our lives. My grandfather had a bad reaction to the vaccines given to him in 1917 to ship out to France and lost all his hair. He got little sympathy, they were mandated and he was an ambulance driver in the war.

The roll out for the COVID vaccines were the fastest in history. We have a wealth of data on their safety and so far the side effects from the vaccines are much milder than from the infection they are preventing. The flu vaccine on the other hand is something I've never had. I haven't had the flu as an adult, the risk of a bad outcome from the flu if you don't have risk factors is low, and the vaccine can have some side effects (though also relatively uncommon). I choose not to get it because of those factors.

The risks from even Omicron are vastly higher than the flu. Its far more contagious and I did get sicker with it than I have with any bug since I had the chicken pox at 28. It was shorter than the original COVID I had in early 2020, but I felt worse.

I haven't gotten the booster because my antibody levels are still decent. the infection in December was essentially my booster, so I'll wait. By the time I am ready for the booster the Omicron specific booster might be available which will probably be more effective.

Even if people aren't getting hospitalized at the same rates with Omicron, it's putting a big strain on the hospital system because of the sheer numbers of people infected. The fast spread of this variant is having an impact on the economy because so many people are out of work sick. And some people don't kick Omicron easily. One person my partner works with and a client of hers have had Omicron cases that have dragged on for a month. Her work colleague does a lot from home, so he's able to continue at about 80% effectiveness, but he sounds awful when she and he talk on the phone (she frequently uses speakerphone).

Right now we don't have a great vaccine for Omicron, but hopefully that will be solved soon. But the old vaccines do help prevent Omicron for at least a couple of months, so they aren't useless. Even if people aren't dying at the same rate with Omicron, they are getting sick enough to be out of work and that is having an impact. Also a large enough number are sick enough to end up in the hospital and that is putting a strain on hospital systems around the country. Even if most of those people go home, it's expensive, and a lot of people who need hospital services aren't getting them because elective surgeries are getting put off.

Vaccines have become a political issue and they shouldn't have. Because the push back is so high, I think they should be limited, but if it wasn't a political issue, I would be for them. This is a public health emergency and there is a lot of history pre-1918 for measures far more draconian than what we have seen thus far and all those measures were lifted when the emergency passed.
That’s all fine and well but Elon can tweet whatever he wants is all I’m saying. It was not misinformation it is just his belief about what the government will do with this power one they have it.

Can you make a reasonable case for mandating vaccines for Canadian truckers? Sure you can. Does everyone in the world have to agree with that case? No they don’t. Elon disagrees with the mandate and supports the truckers that are protesting… that’s OK.

The goalposts keep moving in these responses I was commenting on a specific post about Elons tweets.
 
Not true. New mandates are almost always controversial we just have social media and a 24hr news cycle now.

NPR vaccine mandates in schools
As I said not enough to matter. Government mandated vaccines have been around for 2 centuries as your article states and the majority of society has accepted that as reasonable. Just because some people may think traffic lights are an infringement on their personal freedoms doesn't mean it's acceptable for them to drive as they wish and endanger the rest of us.
 
As I said not enough to matter. Government mandated vaccines have been around for 2 centuries as your article states and the majority of society has accepted that as reasonable. Just because some people may think traffic lights are an infringement on their personal freedoms doesn't mean it's acceptable for them to drive as they wish and endanger the rest of us.
From the article

8. Adding new vaccines to the school mandate list has proven difficult in the 21st century.

sounds like there’s enough to matter.

The traffic light argument is fine but you can extend it to any number of activities that you may or may not personally want to ban. It’s a tired, lazy argument not some trump card to justify any policy that you see fit. Regardless we’re just talking in circles on this there really isn’t much more that needs to be said from my perspective.
 
sounds like there’s enough to matter.
I was talking about the past, when insanity was less able to travel as easily. Society functions by accepting certain restrictions on personal "freedom" for the protection of all, the traffic light example is a perfect example of such, as are vaccination requirements.
 
My only point was to combat the misinformation that unvaccinated individuals are somehow uniquely responsible for spreading this or causing variants. Clearly they are not. Vaccination for COVID does a lot of great things but it does not prevent infection or spread.
This is a recent change. Before Omicron, the current 2-shot vaccine was doing a decent job at helping prevent the spread of Covid infection. Now, you need to add a booster due to Omicron’s mutations.

Of course, vaccination wasn’t/isn’t 100% effective at preventing infection but it made an important contribution during a time of pandemic spread.

Obviously, and longer term, the vaccine is also about minimizing disease severity which also has societal interests in preventing the disruption of normal health care for non-Covid issues.
 
Somewhat related, Moderna mRNA HIV vax starting phase 1 trials.


I don't have a lot of faith in this one. HIV is a VERY different beast from CV. It's a retrovirus, and it literally reverse-transcribes itself to hide in the DNA of the host. There is nothing inherent about mRNA vaccines that make them overcome this.

I would love to be proven wrong, but the mutation rate for HIV is through the roof compared to CV.
 
I have read that people can catch Covid more than once, that immunity acquired from the disease is not always strong enough to avoid another case, especially if it is another variant. So are the people who catch it twice included twice in the per capita rate of the community? I can see them counted twice in cases and hospitalizations. And if a person catches it twice I can see it would be difficult, or at least take an extra step, to not include them in the per capita figures. This leads me to believe the per capita figures are high, probably not by much but some.
 
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Vaccination for COVID does a lot of great things but it does not prevent infection or spread.
This is completely false at a community level, which is what is relevant here. Does it always prevent it? No. Does it prevent spread and infection? Absolutely. And it is far, far better to be boosted when it comes to Omicron.

Let’s not make false statements. It’s possible to add the word “always” to your statement to make it true.

It’s possible to communicate to people that getting vaccinated still means there is a good chance you will be infected if exposed, while also communicating that there is a good chance it will prevent infection. And in any case it dramatically reduces risk of severe disease.

Dr. Jha has made the point I made here the other day:


I would differ with him on the “constant reinfections” part - for the viral diversity present today, you probably only have to be infected about three times, maybe four, to have robust immunity (with substantial risk of course). So eventually I DO expect this gap to narrow a bit (I sure hope so - there is no other realistic achievable path to stop this since some won’t get vaccinated). It’s just that right now most people are being exposed to a newer somewhat different variant. But the boosted are ahead of the game in terms of exposures (and the response is much more consistent; outliers seem to mostly drive the efficacy), so come out way ahead.
 
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I just want to know when they’re going to authorize fourth doses in the US. They should be recommended for the elderly and those who have not had Omicron, who are more than 4-5 months out from their last booster. I definitely need one at this point, it seems.

It sucks that there is such a lack of urgency on the Omicron boosters, but anything would help - at least then if fourth doses of the original vaccine were approved, I’d have the option for a boost if I thought I was going to have high exposure risk (I’d like to travel in April but it looks like there is no hope for a Omicron booster by then). So much for the 100-day timeline.

I guess I’d go priority-wise:
1) Omicron-specific, either manufacturer, probably prefer Moderna
2) Moderna boost
3) Pfizer fourth dose

I wonder how well the Omicron boosts will work against the Omicron variants? I hope they sequence everyone in their studies who gets infected, so we actually have some info…I guess I generally expect 90%+ efficacy in the quad-vaxxed group against any of the variants known today.

I think the thought that we can’t keep adapting to variants and getting boosted every six months will be needed may not hold up. The diversity from a considerably different booster may well provide a very wide breadth to protect against future moves the virus makes. And it does seem that though efficacy is waning for boosters, that they may be holding up a bit better than the second shot. So a fourth could be a little better still, especially if it provides some diversity.

In any case, there is only one way to find out, so why not find out sooner rather than later?
 
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I just want to know when they’re going to authorize fourth doses in the US. They should be recommended for the elderly and those who have not had Omicron, who are more than 4-5 months out from their last booster. ...
So a fourth could be a little better still, especially if it provides some diversity.
Haha, indeed I have a spreadsheet with both the 5 & 6 month dates mapped out to give my family an idea where that would be. :)

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As I said not enough to matter. Government mandated vaccines have been around for 2 centuries as your article states and the majority of society has accepted that as reasonable. Just because some people may think traffic lights are an infringement on their personal freedoms doesn't mean it's acceptable for them to drive as they wish and endanger the rest of us.
Please list 1 vaccine that is mandatory for every person in the USA to have?
 
Please list 1 vaccine that is mandatory for every person in the USA to have?

This is a bit . . . disingenuous, and I believe you know it.

In ALL 50 states, there is a substantial list of vaccines that a child MUST have in order to attend public school (which is 95% of all education in the USA). While this isn't a "universal mandate", it's a really REALLY good catch-all that keeps the vast majority of our population properly protected against some really nasty diseases. Diseases, I will point out, that for almost all there is NO TREATMENT for if you catch.

I will preempt your counter point that there are religious and (VERY rarely) medical exemptions, but those are VERY VERY rare, not the norm, and they vary extremely from state to state.

You really REALLY should read this:

It gives a historical account of vaccine mandates, the relevant laws that allow for them and also what those laws protect the individual from and protect their right to chose, and it gives a historical accounting of WHY we vaccinate against what we vaccinate against.

As a board trained pediatrician, I have personally seen children DIE from things that the general public thinks we no longer need to vaccinate against (measles - causes encephalitis, pertussis - causes whooping cough and a bad pneumonia for toddlers, polio - causes paralysis, mumps - causes sterility in males).

Since you probably won't read it, here is the most relevant table, it shows the AVERAGE ANNUAL MORTALITY in the 20th century in the USA from these diseases BEFORE the vaccines were put into place.

vaccine mortality.jpg



You have NO CLUE how bad most of these are, until you see firsthand an unvaccinated child die from them. It is gut wrenching because for all of the above, there are NO TREATMENTS except "supportive care" (i.e. we put you in the hospital, give you fluids, and ask your family to pray you recover).
 
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