Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Quote:
New Subvariant B.2.12.1:
68% week/week advantage over BA.2
Significant growth of total numbers, doubling each week.
2.5x doubling speed compared to BA.2
New US projections model:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516551779013513220

It’ll be really interesting to see if this confirms over this entire timeframe. I wish he would extend his model a few more months, so we have an idea of the assumptions.

We’ve expected a bump for some time due to BA.2 and general easing of restrictions, but does this new variant mean something new? We have had a few false alarms at this point (Eric “” Feigl-Ding for example).

I think the trajectory will probably confirm through early May, but beyond that I think it is hard to say.

Looking at states that are surging, many, but not all, have generally done better (so, less immunity) or are less vaccinated. So still some hope that most states simply can’t sustain a lot of growth. It’s a very complicated picture though.

I expect deaths will continue to fall through the end of April. I hope!

To be clear, I’m an advocate for having zero COVID, but none of these variants seem terribly alarming at this point. Maybe I’m wrong. Just my impression. Predictions very difficult.

I still don’t think we’ll see something like the UK. But I obviously don’t know.

 

[DarkandStormy]

The daily average for new cases in the U.S. is up 51% in the month of April and 45% in the last two weeks.

DoD change in currently hospitalized is also now flat.

The trough coming off the OG Omicron has ended. We're now into the BA.2 phase. Keep an eye on those hospitalizations as an estimated 30-40% of testing is now occurring at home, which are generally not reported in the daily case counts.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Now I will admit that the CCP, for now at least, appears to be hiding substantial numbers of deaths. And we won’t even have excess mortality to go by (they don’t publish it). Paywall for most probably:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/20/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#covid-shanghai-china-deaths

Seems fairly pointless to hide this, since case numbers, assuming a typical age distribution and known vaccination rates, will allow reasonable estimates of death numbers. Those numbers will be very high, though obviously they have successfully and permanently avoided a huge amount of mortality with their Dynamic Zero COVID policy, due to their vaccination of the vulnerable, even with their sub-optimal two-dose vaccines and lack of boosting.

Obviously there are better strategies going forward, and they still have exposure to a couple million deaths - need to cut into that.

 

[heltok]

Shanghai to keep COVID-19 curbs as infections outside quarantine rise again

SHANGHAI: Shanghai authorities said on Thursday (Apr 21) tough restrictions would remain in place for now even in districts that managed to cut COVID-19 transmission to zero, as the number of cases outside quarantined areas across the city rose again. That sober assessment came after health...

www.channelnewsasia.com

SHANGHAI: Shanghai authorities said on Thursday (Apr 21) tough restrictions would remain in place for now even in districts that managed to cut COVID-19 transmission to zero, as the number of cases outside quarantined areas across the city rose again.

That sober assessment came after health officials earlier in the week had fuelled hopes of some return to normal by saying that trends in recent days showed Shanghai had "effectively curbed transmissions".

The central district of Jingan, home to nearly 1 million people and some of the city's flashiest malls, on Thursday morning, said it would no longer allow any residents out of their housing compounds citing risks of large gatherings.
At a regular press conference, the deputy governor of Chongming district, an outlying island area, said most curbs would be kept in place, although it has reported zero cases outside quarantined areas and 90 per cent of its 640,000-or-so residents were now in theory allowed to leave their homes.
Supermarkets would remain shut to shoppers, vehicles would not be allowed on roads without approval, and only one person from each household would be allowed to leave home each day in some towns in Chongming, deputy governor Zhang Zhitong said.
"For those in prevention areas, we have to continue to ensure that they don't become 'free to fly' areas," he said, referring to neighbourhoods where residents are allowed to leave their housing compounds.
Shanghai reported 15,861 new local asymptomatic coronavirus cases on Wednesday, down from 16,407 a day earlier. Symptomatic cases stood at 2,634, up from 2,494.

I guess they are down from 25k to 16k/day so that’s down like 33%. One more year and they should be down to a thousand.

 

[scottf200]

Medriva React App

Web site created using create-react-app

newsnodes.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517664748858486787

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517954362806611972

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517954362806611972

She died in early January, was very sick in December so probably Delta. Refused Remdisivir. Followers were outraged docs wouldn't treat her with HCQ and/or Ivermectin.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

She died in early January, was very sick in December so probably Delta

Lips are looking a bit blue in that last video from her, compared to earlier similar videos. At least she had been taking HCQ prophylactically, so she was ready. Stayed strong until the end. Her Facebook is a stream of advertisements for ineffective treatments of one form or another.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479356878463422464

 

[scottf200]

She died in early January, was very sick in December so probably Delta. Refused Remdisivir. Followers were outraged docs wouldn't treat her with HCQ and/or Ivermectin.

Lips are looking a bit blue in that last video from her, compared to earlier similar videos. At least she had been taking HCQ prophylactically, so she was ready. Stayed strong until the end. Her Facebook is a stream of advertisements for ineffective treatments of one form or another.

A bunch of these folks on the Reddit HermanCainAward channel: r/HermanCainAward

I think it was named after he passed away when attending this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1274489632886075398

 

[NikolaACDC]

This is for Pfizer/Biontech:

COVID-19 Third Dose Vaccine Protection Against Hospitalization Wanes After 3 Months

Study:
Durability of BNT162b2 vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions...

"The researchers examined 11,123 hospital admissions and emergency department visits that did not result in hospitalization for acute respiratory infection for this study. The researchers looked at Kaiser Permanente patient records in Southern California from December 1, 2021, to February 6, 2022, when both the delta and omicron variants were circulating in the population.

• After 2 doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against omicron was 41% against hospital admission and 31% against emergency department visits at 9 months.
• After 3 doses, effectiveness against omicron-related hospitalization was 85% at less than 3 months but fell to 55% at 3 months or longer.
• Against emergency department visits that did not result in hospitalization, vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses against omicron was 77% at less than 3 months but fell to 53% at 3 months or longer.

Although the Pfizer COVID-19 protection levels against omicron after 3 doses are substantially higher than those seen after 2 doses, they are less than those observed for delta or other COVID-19 strains,” Tartof said. “Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVID-19 vaccines may be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of COVID-19 caused by omicron or future variants with similar potential to escape protection.”

 

[EVNow]

Although the Pfizer COVID-19 protection levels against omicron after 3 doses are substantially higher than those seen after 2 doses, they are less than those observed for delta or other COVID-19 strains,” Tartof said. “Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVID-19 vaccines may be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of COVID-19 caused by omicron or future variants with similar potential to escape protection.”

We are getting to a point where a booster is needed every 3 months.

 

[dhanson865]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00127-8/fulltext

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalization in the UK: a prospective observational study

Patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 shows only around 1 in 4 feel fully recovered after 1 year. The most common ongoing long-COVID symptoms were fatigue, muscle pain, physically slowing down, poor sleep, and breathlessness

 

[dhanson865]

4,000 IU Vit D vs 450 mg cornstarch tested. Vit D wins.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0188440922000455

Efficacy and Safety of Vitamin D Supplementation to Prevent COVID-19 in Frontline Healthcare Workers. A Randomized Clinical Trial​

Results​

. Of 321 recruited subjects, 94 VDG and 98 PG completed follow-up. SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was lower in VDG than in PG (6.4 vs. 24.5%, p <0.001). The risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection was lower in the VDG than in the PG (RR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.09–0.55) and was associated with an increment in serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.82–0.93), independently of VD deficiency. No significant adverse events were identified.

Conclusions​

. Our results suggest that VD-supplementation in highly exposed individuals prevents SARS-CoV-2 infection without serious AEs and regardless of VD status.

 

[Doggydogworld]

We are getting to a point where a booster is needed every 3 months.

I used to half-jokingly say Israel gave quarterly boosters.

I am starting to think the three dose vs. two-dose improvement in these studies is mostly time decay, though. The vast majority of the two-dose patients got their last shot 8-12 months ago. You'd need something like a double-blind study in which everyone got three shots, but half the first shots were placebos, to really isolate the 3 vs. 2 dose improvement. Half the people get zero vax protection the first month, though, so you'd need to do it with a low risk population.

 

[EVNow]

I am starting to think the three dose vs. two-dose improvement in these studies is mostly time decay, though.

Yes - if the immunity goes down from 90% to 50% in 3 months - a quarterly booster is what would be needed.

Or hopefully a reformulated vaccine that gives 75%+ immunity for a year.

 

[golfcart]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517954362806611972

Honestly what is the point of posting this? Laughing at a gullible person that died? Y'all have seriously lost me at this point.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Although the Pfizer COVID-19 protection levels against omicron after 3 doses are substantially higher than those seen after 2 doses, they are less than those observed for delta or other COVID-19 strains,”

Given the very heterogeneous immunity landscape, it’s becoming extremely difficult to gauge true vaccine efficacy. As they mention, they cannot determine with certainty prior infection status.

1) Obviously a vaccine will be less effective against any outcome when comparing to a population that has largely been infected before, even if you’re looking at waning over time (the immune system appears to have an extremely long memory in this case).

2) Of course, both vaccinated and unvaccinated were previously infected, and the rate of prior infection may not differ much between the two groups. However, the incremental benefit of prior infection is likely substantially higher for someone unvaccinated than it is for someone vaccinated and boosted.

The paper does mention some of these limitations - and also the effect of being admitted “with COVID” vs. “for COVID.”

I’d have to read the study more to figure out immunocompromised rates in the study population. But that’s an important consideration to keep in mind with these studies. There’s a lot less drop off over time for those who are not compromised. Tough to quantify though.

 

[heltok]

We are getting to a point where a booster is needed every 3 months.

We live in times when lots of the things the tin foil hats said would happen has happened. :-/

My mum got serious side effects after her 4th dose(plus omicron in between). Fainted, hit her head and almost couldn’t get up. Imo she should not have been given this dose. Imo we should first test antibody levels and only give people with low levels any boosters.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Given the very heterogeneous immunity landscape, it’s becoming extremely difficult to gauge true vaccine efficacy. As they mention, they cannot determine with certainty prior infection status.

1) Obviously a vaccine will be less effective against any outcome when comparing to a population that has largely been infected before, even if you’re looking at waning over time (the immune system appears to have an extremely long memory in this case).

2) Of course, both vaccinated and unvaccinated were previously infected, and the rate of prior infection may not differ much between the two groups. However, the incremental benefit of prior infection is likely substantially higher for someone unvaccinated than it is for someone vaccinated and boosted.

The paper does mention some of these limitations - and also the effect of being admitted “with COVID” vs. “for COVID.”

I’d have to read the study more to figure out immunocompromised rates in the study population. But that’s an important consideration to keep in mind with these studies. There’s a lot less drop off over time for those who are not compromised. Tough to quantify though.

That being said, this is pretty depressing. Hopefully the curve for deaths gets smaller and smaller with each successive wave, but it does not seem that it will certainly go to negligible levels…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518673358845620225

 

[JRP3]

Honestly what is the point of posting this? Laughing at a gullible person that died? Y'all have seriously lost me at this point.

These people were/are spreading lies and causing illness and death. If they are exposed as charlatans maybe some of their followers will wake up.