Coronavirus

[X Fan]

In Europe we also had various reasons to not see an explosion of cases. Look how that worked out!

Agreed...some leaders still have their head in the sand....Gov. of FL seems to be one of them (but lol: in order to get money from the Feds, he ordered a state of emergency....appropriate leadership act is to implement far reaching actions that harm your economic interests but yet more fully protect your people).

 

[bhzmark]

Here is a brief article that expresses my personal opinions perfectly:
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

In this case below we have bad decision-making without the data of a CV-19 test. This was first misdiagnosed as flu, treated with prednisone (a potentially fatal move for CV-19), then told again to stay on prednisone!, and is now on a ventilator with likely long term lung damage if he lives.

Baker Donelson Partner With Coronavirus in Critical Condition

I wonder how many of the COVID-19 deaths were due to treating with steroids at some point?

Even the slower moving CDC clinical guidance says not use steroids. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC also mentions Remdesivir, but no other investigational treatments by name, despite the guidelines from China, Korea and Belgium. Let's see how long it takes them.

 

[AudubonB]

I say for the 3rd time, its TIME TO GET RID OF THE TSA!

America Is a Sham

everyone with half a brain understands that this is a concept known as 'security theater'. have people believe that some real security is in place, when its really all for show. a lie. limiting our freedom, conditioning us to follow orders and not to question authority.

tsa is now allowing a LOT of hand sanitizer to be brought on board.

in fact, they are allowing a LOT of liquid in bottles that they completely assured us that, unless we stopped everyone, plains would explode.

not one plane exploded. and we're sick and tired of the BS from TSA.

lets use this situation to pull back all the bad law changes we made, when we were 'scared little girls'.

we have bigger fish to fry, now. lets take this opportunity to fix things that are long overdue for fixing.

Who’s gonna go to the effort of blowing up a plane with three passengers?

Serious: I am completely in agreement with the notion of this as a charade for the benefit of the ignorant.

 

[bhzmark]

Here is a brief article that expresses my personal opinions perfectly:
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

On the broader point of that article though, other risk and decision-making thinkers disagree. Some interesting discussion in the replies. Certainly we will all benefit from more data, but not taking action while waiting for data is itself a decision. Most decision-making is under some degree of uncertainty -- here in the early days the uncertainty is large. Doesn't mean that we can't make good decisions based on the sloppy messy data that we do have.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Twitter

 

[nwdiver]

There might be Atheists in fox holes but there are no capitalists in an economy with COVID-19...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

On the broader point of that article though, other risk and decision-making thinkers disagree.

Yep. You have to look at upside and downside of inaction. It's super obvious in this case, based on other countries, that the downside risk of inaction is enormous. It's just exponentials at work. It's the best bet ever to take enormous action now, and gather data as you go along and dial back as necessary. A month or two of a halted economy is far better than tens of thousands dead and a 5-month halt while you wait for the high initial value of the exponential you created through inaction to decay.

We've already made the mistake once, sitting around on our hands (actually it was mostly just crowing about shutting down travel and talking about the great job we were doing and how we are awesome and the best) for 5 weeks when it was also super obvious to everyone with a brain in mid-January that it had entered the United States and was spreading rapidly. And we see where that led us. So maybe make the right decision this time...

 

[nwdiver]

Yep. You have to look at upside and downside of inaction.

It's apocalyptic in parts of Italy and Iran.

One reason the case fatality rate can be so low is effective palliative care but ~20% can require hospitalization. If the health care system is overwhelmed the consequences are horrible. #Flattenthecurve

 

[HG Wells]

Woman tests positive. Gives false name.
Runs away from hospital !

Coronavirus patient gave false name and address — and now no one can find her: mayor

EDIT: This is the second positive who is purposely running around infecting others.

 

[linux-works]

san jose area work places (friends I've been in contact with, plus my own) are on lock down and literally are locked, you can't even enter.

things are escalating quickly. in a way, that's good. but WHY did they let so many idiots party for Patty's day and then slam on the brakes like this? bars were open and people were crowded in.

maybe we should rename this the st patty's day virus, due to the global stupidity of people.

 

[dl003]

Woman tests positive. Gives false name.
Runs away from hospital !

Coronavirus patient gave false name and address — and now no one can find her: mayor

Sounds like the hospital I work at every day of the week. Who'd have thought it'd be so damn hard to hold on to your sick patients. Humans are funny.

 

[EV Promoter]

Bad news from Italy, todaytotal cases above 31,000 and rise in the daily trend. (8:40 PM local time)
9 days are passed from the complete shutdown, of course this rise must be just effect of the increased number of tests.
For cities like Naples that are less prone to respect the measures, Mr. President is considering to send the army for patroling.

The most reliable counter with graphs is:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[jbcarioca]

In this case below we have bad decision-making without the data of a CV-19 test. This was first misdiagnosed as flu, treated with prednisone (a potentially fatal move for CV-19), then told again to stay on prednisone!, and is now on a ventilator with likely long term lung damage if he lives.

...

View attachment 522749


I.

Without a doubt a fair amount of the deaths were accelerated or caused by misdiagnosis. We do know that the COVID-19 symptoms are easily mistaken as seasonal flu. We also know the predisposition of normal people including MD's is to expect something that looks like something seen before is in fact the same thing. That is human nature.
Not long ago secondary syphilis was often diagnosed as some skin disease, treated as such, the rash went away and all was well, until the third stage set in.

In every walk of life such errors are common. Most of the time those mistakes don't kill people.

 

[jbcarioca]

On the broader point of that article though, other risk and decision-making thinkers disagree. Some interesting discussion in the replies. Certainly we will all benefit from more data, but not taking action while waiting for data is itself a decision. Most decision-making is under some degree of uncertainty -- here in the early days the uncertainty is large. Doesn't mean that we can't make good decisions based on the sloppy messy data that we do have.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Twitter

View attachment 522792

Of course I agree, and the author might too. The question is what actions should be taken, not just taking no action vs draconian measures. War game approaches are pretty good at helping make high risk decisions in highly uncertain circumstances.

 

[Singuy]

Checking in from our Central FL hospital. So far our ED is not any more or less busy than before. Have some pts with flu like symptoms here but most are being discharged to self isolate.

We have massive tents set up around the city for testing. So far there are no signs of mad rush to the ED as of now.

There are 5 Covid rule out admitted, but zero confirmed Covid. I believe we are treating any pt with SOB and fever as a Covid R/o candidate.

 

[FoverM]

Bad news from Italy, today total cases above 31,000 and rise in the daily trend. (8:40 PM local time)
9 days are passed from the complete shutdown, of course this rise must be just effect of the increased number of tests.
For cities like Naples that are less prone to respect the measures, Mr. President is considering to send the army for patroling.

The most reliable counter with graphs is:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

View attachment 522811

That's not bad news, if I'm reading that site correctly. It looks like you have to add up the orange, green, and white values in each day to get the "total positive" at a given day. So, with that caveat in mind ...

The trend is decreasing significantly. Why? Because this is an exponential process. You have to look at the daily percent change, not numerical change. For example, on Mar 7 there were 5883 positives and on Mar 8 there were 7375, a daily gain of 1492. Positives went from 27,980 yesterday to 31,506 today, a gain of 3526. Certainly, +3526 is worse than +1492, correct? Nope. As a percent, the Mar 7-8 gain was 25.3% while the Mar 16-17 gain was 12.6%. The spread has been cut in half in ten days. The new daily gain amount will probably level off and start falling within a week.

 

[sparcs]

CNBC: Pentagon to free up 5 million respirator masks and 2,000 ventilators for coronavirus efforts
Marketwatch: Pentagon to give 5 million respirator masks, 2,000 ventilators to HHS

Esper told Pentagon reporters that the ventilators are designed for use by deployed troops and the military will need to train civilians on how to use them. He said some may have “single-use” limitations. And he said the first million respirator masks will be made available immediately.

U.S. officials have talked about the shortage of ventilators to help treat patients with the virus.

Esper also said he has asked the Navy to prepare hospital ships for deployment. He said the Pentagon will also talk with state and local leaders to see if there is any need for field hospitals.

“When you look at the number of people that are projected that may need ventilators, 2,000 doesn’t really put much of a dent into it,” Esper said.

“The key thing is the private sector, the manufacturing side, whoever makes medical machines of this type. How do you prime that pump to get production up because we are simply not going to be able to meet the demand if the demand fits some of the profiles as we’ve seen the CDC brief,” he said.

 

[Doggydogworld]

CNBC: Pentagon to free up 5 million respirator masks and 2,000 ventilators for coronavirus efforts
Marketwatch: Pentagon to give 5 million respirator masks, 2,000 ventilators to HHS

The US has 62k ventilators at last count plus almost 100k more in storage which are mostly older with more limited capabilities. But the military can probably deploy their 2k to an overloaded hotspot very quickly, which matters in a crisis.

Bad news from Italy, today total cases above 31,000 and rise in the daily trend.

The situation in Italy is grim, but I agree with @FoverM that today's report is not bad news. Newly detected cases have been in the 3.0-3.6k range for 4 straight days. Unless there's been a breakdown in testing or something this indicates a strong flattening of the curve. Their lockdown looks to be working, mostly importantly in the Northern hot zone which has been locked down over a week. Thanks for the great link, btw.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not all carry out is cooked, salads for example, but I was more thinking about all the containers, bags, and utensils.

Asking a question here: even if there were some virus particles on the salad, wouldn't your stomach acids destroy it? I mean if soap gets rid of it...

 

[cucubits]

Asking a question here: even if there were some virus particles on the salad, wouldn't your stomach acids destroy it? I mean if soap gets rid of it...

Also, is there a reputable source which tells us how long does the virus last out on object surfaces?

 

[bkp_duke]

Asking a question here: even if there were some virus particles on the salad, wouldn't your stomach acids destroy it? I mean if soap gets rid of it...

Legitimately, yes if it got to the stomach. But what has to be remembered is that the cells of the mouth and esophagus all have the proper proteins for COVID-19 to bind and enter those cells and initiate infection.