Coronavirus

[Thekiwi]

Yes, of course the liberals cannot stand any positive praise for president Trump. Do you deny that banning travel from China back in January delayed the travel of the China Wuhan virus to US? It likely arrived in the US from the EU, notably Italy, not directly from China due to the earlier travel restriction.

1). It was already in the USA before the china travel restrictions were put in place

2). Even if you don't believe that 1) is true, all of Trumps other actions before and following the china travel restriction:
- rejecting testing,
- rejected plentiful supply from international sources of proven test kits, instead insisted on faulty CDC test and even then still rejected the international test to wait on other delayed US test kits.
- ignoring scientific advice,
- failure to ramp up protective equipment and ventilator production,
- no adequate screening at borders,
- downplaying the virus threat ("It's a liberal Hoax!" & "it will go away by itself" & "we have 5 cases, that will be zero soon"),
- disbanding the pandemic office,
- defunding the CDCs global offices,

All of the above has rendered any benefit from the china travel restriction basically meaningless.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The one single factor that has prevented us from being completely overrun with this virus and in a similar situation to Italy was Trump.

We're going to be at about 100k cases in 3 weeks, just FYI. Currently we are on pace to be the largest outbreak in the world. We're #1! So much winning! My best guess is we'll top out at 150-200k cases.

As of a few days ago we were likely at about 20k cases nationwide. That would actually take us to 250k cases in 3 weeks but I'm trying to be optimistic and choose low numbers.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

It likely arrived in the US from the EU, notably Italy, not directly from China due to the earlier travel restriction.

Incorrect, for Washington State. That case was nearly certainly imported by the first case from Wuhan prior to the travel ban. The phylogenetic analysis tells the tale with reasonable certainty.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Please read all his tweets to see followup analysis confirming this assumption, BTW. The genome matched the earlier genome. Big deal. We knew community spread had been occurring since mid-January, by March 1st (and we would have known it sooner if the lab had been allowed to test).

Are your saying the travel ban from China was not a good thing, was not effective, did not save lives. Refer to the Worldometer to see evidence of where each of the cases that exploded in Washington State, California and New York originated. Its was travelers returning from Italy, NOT China, because there were none.

The cases in Washington State that exploded were from Wuhan. See above.

If the rate of infection increases, we'll see it here first.

I think Washington State will not increase much - I think they started their stuff early enough that they are going to be an example of what to do. We'll see. (Hoping they top out at no more than 3000 cases.)

 

[BornToFly]

Another useful slide from this morning.

 

[N5329K]

'Nuff said.
Robin

 

[renim]

The Coronavirus in Asia and ASEAN – Live Updates by Country


Iran temporarily frees 85,000 prisoners....
(nb Iran's population is about 82 million)

(this is an issue not just for Iran, but the entire developing world, do they just let the prisoners catch Corona and rot?)

 

[SageBrush]

All of the above has rendered any benefit from the china travel restriction basically meaningless.

Probably much worse than that.

The xenophobic ploy gave trump and his base a false sense of security that has lead to a huge groundswell of unrecognized cases that is going to come knocking in the next few days.

 

[Paracelsus]

.

 

[MC3OZ]

Another useful slide from this morning.

Was there any discussion on whether early diagnosis and treatment would help and if any treatments are currently showing promise?

IMO if early diagnosis and treatment can be made to work that is the best way to reduce the load on ICU.

 

[sparcs]

US tax day (apr 15) extended:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-20-17.pdf

Your text is actually false. The filing date is still the same and must be filed by April 15th unless you get an extension. Only the deadline to pay IRS taxes owed for 2019 Tax Returns has been extended or postponed to July 15, 2020.

 

[renim]

Another useful slide from this morning.

Is there any further breakdown according to gender?

and to a lessor extent, 0-9 is a large range for that age group, is there further detail there?

 

[SageBrush]

Your text is actually false. The filing date is still the same and must be filed by April 15th unless you get an extension. Only the deadline to pay IRS taxes owed for 2019 Tax Returns has been extended or postponed to July 15, 2020.

That is my understanding also. Payment can be delayed until ~ 7/15 without incurring penalties, or I presume interest.

So far I have not read anything that would suggest that the usual 4/15 deadline for IRA contributions is changed.

 

[BornToFly]

Was there any discussion on whether early diagnosis and treatment would help and if any treatments are currently showing promise?

IMO if early diagnosis and treatment can be made to work that is the best way to reduce the load on ICU.

The big focus is on getting more tests, so that we can flatten the curve better by isolating people that think they only have a cold. We would also be able to test health care workers better, and people that may have exposed them, so we know who has to stay home and who can still work. No discussion today on anti-virals or anything that could treat the very sick. The main focus is trying to keep the numbers as low as possible so that we don't have to let older people die without treatment because there are no beds (the Italy situation).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A great, optimistic thread from Trevor, which seems like a sensible approach and validated by empirical results to date:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

The emphasis on massive testing is very sensible...as I've said a few times earlier here. Sort of a statement of the obvious, really. But he's an epidemiologist in real life. He also links to all his sources which is nice.

 

[SageBrush]

The big focus is on getting more tests, so that we can flatten the curve better by isolating people that think they only have a cold.

I wonder about this. Too naive/ignorant/dont-care to understand that URI symptoms may be Covid-19 and should self-isolate, but aware enough to get tested ?

Curve flattening strategies are only as good as the population lets them be. Merkins and trumpers and Millennials present a HUGE red light to this working. I suppose a carrot and stick strategy would help, meaning sick leave payments for those who test positive. But how does the government encourage/enforce social distancing ?

 

[Dr. J]

It does a little bit. e.g. If the government place an order at e.g. 3M for masks, the DPA requires them to drop everything else and immediately work on the government order. They also can't refuse the order.

The biggest domestic mask manufacturer is already churning out masks at heightened rate only for hospitals, etc. A government order could only shift their priorities, and maybe force them to remove the 5-year contract requirement. Interesting read: The ‘Surreal’ Frenzy Inside the US’ Biggest Mask Maker.

 

[MC3OZ]

A great, optimistic thread from Trevor, which seems like a sensible approach and validated by empirical results to date:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

The emphasis on massive testing is very sensible...as I've said a few times earlier here. Sort of a statement of the obvious, really.

I'm surprised at what seems like a low level of testing in the US so far, and taking a long time to organise test kits.

My impressions are Australia may have done a much better job on testing...

 

[Cosmacelf]

If you want to be dark about a specific group, this is more likely:

Millennials are a low risk, but boomers are ~70 more likely to die from the data that I have seen.

So, the millennials, will probably get corvid-19 and live, pass it onto boomers that will die. Millennials will just inherit boomer inheritance before they can spend it all in typical end of life healthcare.

Let's just nickname COVID-19 the Boomer Remover...

 

[SageBrush]

The biggest domestic mask manufacturer is already churning out masks at heightened rate only for hospitals

Want to guess what the hospitals are charged ?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm surprised at what seems like a low level of testing in the US so far,

Really? Have you seen who is in charge?

 

[nwdiver]

Let's just nickname COVID-19 the Boomer Remover...

Most of them would have brought this on themselves listening to morons like Rush saying COVID-19 is just the 'common cold'.

Maybe 'Extinction Rebellion' should threaten mass gatherings of Millennials if the GND isn't bundled with the COVID response bill. They can call it the 'Our future for your future' rally...