Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

Coronavirus surfaces in 19 elder care facilities in Florida

I"ll bet these nursing homes and other post hospital facilities other than home soon require proof of Covid-19 negativity before they accept a patient. The hospitals are going to get overwhelmed in no time flat.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Can we once again knock off the political snarks and purely political rants and finger pointing? Can we look forward, and keep this thread mostly filled with information? Thanks.

 

[nwdiver]

Can we once again knock off the political snarks and purely political rants and finger pointing? Can we look forward, and keep this thread mostly filled with information? Thanks.

Just the facts man... just the facts. Can't solve the problem by ignoring reality.

So looking forward maybe we need to stop heeding clowns so we can move forward..... Thanks

 

[bkp_duke]

US tax day (apr 15) extended:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-20-17.pdf

No, the filing date is still April 15.

They simply extended by 90 days how long you have to pay your taxes.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just the facts man... just the facts. Can't solve the problem by ignoring reality.

So looking forward maybe we need to stop heeding clowns so we can move forward..... Thanks

Yes, well, thanks for answering my question so quickly, apparently we can’t stop pointing fingers.

Btw, I believe Rush was saying a similar thing to what Trump said in his rally, to wit: “It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump.". But hey, believe whatever facts tickles your fancy. I don’t think it matters much.

 

[BornToFly]

Coronavirus surfaces in 19 elder care facilities in Florida

I"ll bet these nursing homes and other post hospital facilities other than home soon require proof of Covid-19 negativity before they accept a patient. The hospitals are going to get overwhelmed in no time flat.

Yep. I did a big surgery on a guy on Monday. He is older and not very healthy. He will be discharged tomorrow. I'm making him go home over a skilled nursing facility almost no matter what. I would be scared to go to a SNF right now.

 

[gerebgraus]

We're going to be at about 100k cases in 3 weeks, just FYI. Currently we are on pace to be the largest outbreak in the world. We're #1! So much winning! My best guess is we'll top out at 150-200k cases.

As of a few days ago we were likely at about 20k cases nationwide. That would actually take us to 250k cases in 3 weeks but I'm trying to be optimistic and choose low numbers.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter



Incorrect, for Washington State. That case was nearly certainly imported by the first case from Wuhan prior to the travel ban. The phylogenetic analysis tells the tale with reasonable certainty.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Please read all his tweets to see followup analysis confirming this assumption, BTW. The genome matched the earlier genome. Big deal. We knew community spread had been occurring since mid-January, by March 1st (and we would have known it sooner if the lab had been allowed to test).



The cases in Washington State that exploded were from Wuhan. See above.



I think Washington State will not increase much - I think they started their stuff early enough that they are going to be an example of what to do. We'll see. (Hoping they top out at no more than 3000 cases.)

The fact is that because of Trump's anti-science, anti-testing, anti data approach we still do not have any base to make estimates about the number of cases in the USA. It is obvious that the number of documented cases will sharply increase in the next couple of days due to the increased testing. But we cannot even guess whether that has any relation to the increase of the actual case number. Hospital emergency admission will increase and that will be the only useful data. Unfortunately, this will further enforce the misguided policies.

 

[nwdiver]

Yes, well, thanks for answering my question so quickly, apparently we can’t stop pointing fingers.

Btw, I believe Rush was saying a similar thing to what Trump said in his rally, to wit: “It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump.". But hey, believe whatever facts tickles your fancy. I don’t think it matters much.

Sure... Rush also said and I quote 'It's the common cold'

If we're gonna move forward... start listening to experts. STOP LISTENING TO CLOWNS! That's not a 'political rant'; That's generally sound advice.

Please; Stop listening to clowns. START listening to experts for climate and COVID. Thanks

 

[ohmman]

They simply extended by 90 days how long you have to pay your taxes.

Just a clarification - how long you have to pay some of your taxes. Based on my reading of that release, it looks like $1MM in taxes is deferred until July. I mean.. not to be nitpicky, but you never know the tax burden of those browsing this thread.

 

[eevee-fan]

The fact is that because of Trump's anti-science, anti-testing, anti data approach we still do not have any base to make estimates about the number of cases in the USA. It is obvious that the number of documented cases will sharply increase in the next couple of days due to the increased testing. But we cannot even guess whether that has any relation to the increase of the actual case number. Hospital emergency admission will increase and that will be the only useful data. Unfortunately, this will further enforce the misguided policies.

What we can count on are the cases of dead. Maybe our real # is 13K, between Germany and Spain?

 

[eevee-fan]

Just a clarification - how long you have to pay some of your taxes. Based on my reading of that release, it looks like $1MM in taxes is deferred until July. I mean.. not to be nitpicky, but you never know the tax burden of those browsing this thread.

Hm... basically a 3 month 0% loan for small businesses.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maybe our real # is 13K, between Germany and Spain?

That's very likely to be too low at this point. See Trevor's estimates. 10k was his low estimate ~5 days ago which would make it 20k now. Or as high as 80k. We don't have a lot of testing coverage, so I would not be surprised at 40-50k as of this writing. I would GUESS it would be lower than that (probably 30k as of this writing), but it's just a guess, and 40-50k would not be a surprise.

 

[eevee-fan]

That's very likely to be too low at this point. See Trevor's estimates. 10k was his low estimate ~5 days ago which would make it 20k now. Or as high as 80k. We don't have a lot of testing coverage, so I would not be surprised at 40-50k as of this writing. I would GUESS it would be lower than that (probably 30k as of this writing), but it's just a guess, and 40-50k would not be a surprise.

Very likely, no reason to think that Germany and Spain identified all cases.

 

[X Fan]

Yeah that guy is weird. DiBlasio seems like a bit of an idiot. I'm not sure why they are waiting to put the city on full lockdown. Super odd.



Yeah, but testing already existed, and all that mattered was time, so "starting late" is kind of a big failing - especially when it was OBVIOUS that you had to be testing. And apparently we didn't push for that either. The problem is the message came from the top that "all was well," and that put about 40-60% of the population at ease. The message should have been: "look for this virus - if you are unwell or know someone is unwell with these symptoms, please go here to get tested."

Basically, the message from the top was "We closed the borders so we will be fine" - which has never worked and never will work. The CDC wasn't sending that message - they kept on saying community spread was likely. Why wasn't that message amplified and appropriate measures taken?

And the hospital ship is not going to be in New York until April, apparently. There are going to be 30k cases in New York City by then.

The numbers are hard to count but apparently we're only at 20k tests a day, but ramping quickly. That seems pretty low after two months.

You have some good points.

Gov. Cuomo/NY State is also to blame since they’ve eliminated 20,000 beds and closed hospitals over the past few years.

in any event, I’m hoping the City’s ramp up is manageable.

 

[X Fan]

The fact is that because of Trump's anti-science, anti-testing, anti data approach we still do not have any base to make estimates about the number of cases in the USA. It is obvious that the number of documented cases will sharply increase in the next couple of days due to the increased testing. But we cannot even guess whether that has any relation to the increase of the actual case number. Hospital emergency admission will increase and that will be the only useful data. Unfortunately, this will further enforce the misguided policies.

Geez such nonsense.

If you’ve followed the press conferences both Dr Birx and Dr Fauci are data oriented.

Some of the comments are just not productive and belong on the political thread.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Your desire to protect trump blinds you to the obvious: Covid-19 does not have a technical solution like corrupt money or more ventilators, it requires that the population get a clue and behave smartly. Trump's stupidity and self centered political maneuvering are focal points of the failure because at least 1/3 of the population take their cues from him and his surrogates.

The sooner people stop listening to trump the better off the country will be and that requires that you and the rest of the trumpers hear and get the message: trump is a dangerous, sociopathic moron. We know this because we note his actions.

Could you please stop it with the personal attacks?

 

[heltok]

Because their success is not proven by time. Look at todays reports of Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. There is acceleration happening again. Why - because either you heal every human or this virus will keep finding a source to contain.

Wrt Singapore. Singapore recently called home all its students abroad, most new cases are from these. They were told to self isolate for 14days. I am in Singapore now, I am getting temperature checked like 5x day in average and I would guess 10% are wearing masks in public spaces.

Imo it seems likely that China will be able to prevent new Wuhan style outbreaks until we have vaccines. This is how they will do it:

1. Greatly lower influx on new cases. Soon there should be a possibility of just testing 100% of new arrivals at the airport with a fast and cheap antibody test or a breathalyzer test.
2. Lower R0 to <1 in most regions by practicing social distancing, hand hygiene, temperature checks, contact tracing, shutting major events, disinfecting public spaces, making most people who closely interacts with multiple people every day wear protective gear.
3. Effectively cull new outbreaks in regions where R0>1 by lockdowns.

With 1,2,3 I would guess there will be very few new outbreaks.

 

[EVNow]

The political discussions are completely useless in this thread. There is a separate thread for that. Everyone knows a lot about the current leadership, so no new ground will be broken here.

What I’m interested in is to figure out
- when I should buy stock/leaps
- how long will the lock down last
- will there be a recession

 

[DanCar]

- will there be a recession

Yes, we are in a recession.
Recession - Wikipedia :
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity.[1][2] Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock).

There are other definitions of a recession such as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Hopefully we will avert that one. Hopefully summer will bring some good news.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The political discussions are completely useless in this thread. There is a separate thread for that. Everyone knows a lot about the current leadership, so no new ground will be broken here.

What I’m interested in is to figure out
- when I should buy stock/leaps
- how long will the lock down last
- will there be a recession

Not yet -> Likely won't bottom out for 2-3 weeks. But, I don't plan on buying till later on. I'm not a big fan of the adult bouncy house that is the stock market right now. Although I imagine some people are making lots of money on the bounces, but I don't have the stomach for it. More skilled people can play that game.

Can't estimate the lock down duration of a country that refused to lock down as a whole. There is just make believe lock downs, and efforts to flatten the curve. I fully expect that almost every week from now till the end of the year that we'll have at least one "lockdown" in place somewhere. I expect future ones to be more data driven (massive increase in testing), and limited in scope. This of course is highly dependent on whether the virus mutates or not.

A short term to medium term recession is almost guaranteed. The only question I have is whether it's going to a long term thing that will take a decade to come out of it. My fear is that we may have killed or harmed more people with our "lets flatten the curve response" on each wave instead of one time "destroy the curve and be done with it" 3-4 week shutdown.

Disclaimer - A few weeks ago before things became bad my response was to pull back from the stock market by 25%. This means I'm a moron because I didn't do significantly more. So anything I say should be questioned. Ugh. I guess the good news is it should be easy have a 2-3 gain on the 25% if I'm not a complete idiot.