Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

I have a dentist appointment tomorrow, but am thinking about canceling because I've had the sniffles since the trees started blooming last week. Almost certain it's just allergies, feel fine otherwise, but then again I could easily have Corona and not know it too.

Please cancel it. My brother-in-law is a dentist and has stopped taking appointments except for emergencies (per ADA recommendations).
ADA recommending dentists postpone elective procedures

My understanding is that a lot of what dentists do causes aerosolization of basically everything in the mouth, making it a high-risk for transmission of viruses.

 

[adiggs]

South Korean tested early, and was able to do contact tracing to shut it down. We are beyond that point and still don't have enough tests, so the cat is out of the bag here. When the stock was in the 800s I warned people in the investor thread about falling knives. I just applied for a 7 figure home equity loan. My plan is to buy another 4,000 shares once the SP is 250 or lower. I don't think we are at the bottom yet. That will happen after thousands of deaths in New York and other cities. Give it a few more weeks. A good Q1 could stop the slide however, and not let it get much below 300. Otherwise low 200s is possible (my humble opinion).

I've sold some 200 and 175 puts with only a 1 month time horizon. I'm hoping to only get cash from selling the puts. I'm starting to worry I'm going to take delivery of a pile of TSLA shares (it's an interesting form of "worry"; being paid to take delivery of TSLA at $200 and lower wouldn't exactly make me sad).

 

[electracity]

But the water drops are not and my understanding is that's where the virus usually are.

seems complicated:

The coronavirus likely can remain airborne. It doesn’t mean we’re doomed

 

[SMAlset]

Please cancel it. My brother-in-law is a dentist and has stopped taking appointments except for emergencies (per ADA recommendations).
ADA recommending dentists postpone elective procedures

My understanding is that a lot of what dentists do causes aerosolization of basically everything in the mouth, making it a high-risk for transmission of viruses.

ahhhh, that is not my post I’m tagged with above in your quoted post. Have not mentioned a dentist at all. Might want to look back and see who you were replying to.

see it was @tander post #4086.

As far as the appt advice I agree. I've read several healthcare workers say that they had slight symptoms but didn’t qualify for a test. Someone in their family did get tested and was positive so they were subsequently able to get tested and were confirmed with c19.

 

[bkp_duke]

REGARDING LOPINAVIR–RITONAVIR

Fresh from NEJM:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=TOC

In summary:
In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir–ritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Future trials in patients with severe illness may help to confirm or exclude the possibility of a treatment benefit.

199 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, randomized to treatment and control groups. No statistically significant differences in mortality or time to clinical improvement.

EDIT - appropriately editorial discussion on the above study here:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2005477?query=TOC

 

[EVNow]

People making decisions right now are not the type that use epidemiologists' research and data sets. Additionally we are still in a stage of finding common ground of what epidemiologists' research and data sets should be used.

Imperial College study was used by UK government and was shared with US (which might account for change in tone). WA has been using
Institute for Disease Modeling.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[bkp_duke]

REGARDING INFECTIONS IN CHILDREN AND ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION

Fresh from NEJM:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2005073?query=TOC

This is very good proof that we can have asymptomatic viral transmission and shedding, at least in the 10 and under age group.

The authors have a good study, and used PCR (the gold standard) for diagnosis of the viral infection in the age group.

I highly recommend anyone interested look at the table attached in the article.

 

[Causalien]

You have to much faith in Millennial. Look at real life examples and not your idea of what reality should be like. Bars closed in Tampa - go to the beach. New Orleans, NC same story. People are people, some will be responsible some wont. The bell curve distribution will tell you that this "unified" effort to wage war is not rooted in reality.




I understand why you say this. But I am only arguing my point and I think it worthy to consider. This approach that everyone on this forum seems to like is doomed. Here is an alternative for discussion:

1. Boeing 60B bailout = 100 of newly constructed hospitals, govt production of necessary medical equipment
2. 1.2T Stimulus = Quarantine of immune compromised and elderly. Gov programs and assistance to families who lost jobs.

Thats it. Everyone should go back to living their live and know that this virus will be with us for many months, they will probably be infected but with pharmaceutical assistance, expanded social programs and abundant hospital care they will be fine.

My plan is rooted in reality while the "bend the curve" plan is destined to fail because it is made of make a wish assumptions.

1.2M will die? No I dont think so. Look at point 1 - that will reduce this number greatly as evidenced by recovery rates where medical attention is abundant.

You don't have enough nurses and doctors for 1. 20% of them will eventually be infected as time goes on.

Even in Wuhan, with the surge of 40k army medics. They still turned away most people leading to a civilian death outside of hospital that is 6x more (rumour) than recorded cases inside hospitals. This number is looking more and more real if you look at Italian data and compare it to Chinese data. The Chinese data is practically impossible as they have higher density lower health care lower hygien standard.

 

[EVNow]

I haven’t been too focused on following c19 news in other countries but this CNN story with 3500 new cases a day?? Is frightening to think about especially in light if how huge areas have been stay in place for some time now. I don’t understand how NYC hasn’t moved to do something before now.

Italian doctors don't know if the coronavirus lockdown is working. But there's no plan B

Actually 4,207 new cases today (and they don't test unless someone comes to the hospital, AFAIK). 475 new deaths - on track to exceed China in total fatalities tomorrow. Italy has the worst demographics for this virus - older population, dense and highly social lifestyle. If Bombay or similar city gets affected, this is what I'd expect. Spain is on a trajectory similar to Italy.

Since US is more sparsely populated and older people are more effectively separated from kids, I don't think we'll see similar problems all over US. But individual cities like NYC are probably susceptible.

BTW, we should really be looking at # of hospitalized & fatalities than cases. Number of cases has a wide variability depending on testing infrastructure and protocol. In US - unfortunately we don't get the hospitalization / ICU stats.

 

[EVNow]

You have to much faith in Millennial. Look at real life examples and not your idea of what reality should be like. Bars closed in Tampa - go to the beach. New Orleans, NC same story. People are people, some will be responsible some wont. The bell curve distribution will tell you that this "unified" effort to wage war is not rooted in reality.

Once the problems hit closer to home - they will respond (could be a little late, unfortunately).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Germany: First curfew imposed on the city of Mitterteich

Wednesday, March 18, 4:43 pm: Due to the spread of the corona virus, the Tirschenreuth district office has imposed a curfew on the city of Mitterteich. It is the first city in Bavaria to be affected by such a measure. Background: Of the 47 corona sufferers confirmed in the district by early Wednesday afternoon, 25 alone live in Mitterteich. Because of this concentration, the decision to curfew has now been made, said a spokesman for the district office on Wednesday afternoon. As early as Tuesday, people were advised to reduce their social contacts to a minimum. After the cases of illness rose again overnight, the measures were now "tightened".

After the entry into force, the Mitterteicher were informed by the fire department, who was traveling around the town with loudspeakers. In addition, handouts were distributed to inform people about the rules that now apply in their city, which is home to around 7,000 residents. According to the general order of the district office, people can continue to drive to work and back home. Delivery traffic is also to be maintained without restriction. In addition, the Mitterteicher may continue to buy groceries, go to the pharmacy or to the doctor. "Otherwise, all social contacts are to be avoided," said the spokesman for the Tirschenreuther district office. He also announced that the curfew will be controlled by the police. The decision was made by the district office alone, and there were no instructions from higher authorities. Before the entry into force, however, the measure had been agreed with Bavaria's Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU). Health Minister Melanie Huml (CSU) was also informed of the decision, said the spokesman for the district office. A government spokesman said the county had "full backing" from the state government.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

And...we're still under-reacting. Maybe we won't need masks!

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Just want to make sure it's clear: with exponential growth, you have to start EARLY. We're doing a lot of talking, but not a lot of doing. And we were already weeks late!

The hospital ship is supposedly going to take weeks to arrive in NYC, when (if we're lucky), we'll be coming off the peak. It'll probably help but it'll be too late to be optimal.

It's like it's not urgent, still! Insanity. I am fairly sure that the President has no concept of exponential growth. His strategy is mind-boggling, as every second he waits reduces the (fading) chances of his re-election. And more importantly leads to more death.

Unbelievable.

 

[electracity]

I'm curious how people feel about contamination of delivered food and supplies. Obviously there is some acquisition of the virus by this means. But is it 1%? 10%? Will people freak out about this issue when infections accelerate?

 

[jerry33]

I'm curious how people feel about contamination of delivered food and supplies. Obviously there is some acquisition of the virus by this means. But is it 1%? 10%? Will people freak out about this issue when infections accelerate?

Unless the package is urgent, I let it sit for a few days, and wash my hands after touching it. Haven't had any delivered food (that wasn't of the canned variety).

 

[sparcs]

I'm curious how people feel about contamination of delivered food and supplies. Obviously there is some acquisition of the virus by this means. But is it 1%? 10%? Will people freak out about this issue when infections accelerate?

I don't think customers will be comfortable enough until the employees are wearing masks and gloves. Especially in fast food where most of these people are fairly young and some even asymptomatic.

Masks are basically not available in the USA so it's going to be a while before they get customers again. Then you have the opposite problem with the stigma of wearing a mask in the USA which is another thing that Americans will have to get over pretty quickly. It's going to be a way of life pretty soon.

 

[Stretch2727]

Social distancing, whats' that? No matter how many times I try to put a barrier in the room or say something people still walk up to within arms reach of me every time they come to ask a question.

I have no idea if I've been exposed or not yet but I have to say it's stressful everytime I read a thread like this and I literally am sitting here with this page on the screen while someone walks up to me way closer than I'd want even if Covid-19 didn't exist.

Same issue. I removed the chairs in my office across from my narrow desk. I point people to the table I have a few meters away.
I've backed away from people, just to have them step towards me. My boss thought thought if we have one case in the building we just need to clean and tell people to stay 2 meters away. There needs to be major education on social distancing.

The only good thing is 3/4 of the people are working from home. We have split the rest that need to physically be here into 2 completely separate teams working different hours. Your on team 1 or team 2 and no mixing. Every work area is cleaned in between.

 

[linux-works]

that, right there, is what is known as a 'wall of text'.

(rubs eyes)

 

[Lessmog]

that, right there, is what is known as a 'wall of text'.

(rubs eyes)

Hope you washed hands first!

 

[ohmman]

I'm curious how people feel about contamination of delivered food and supplies. Obviously there is some acquisition of the virus by this means. But is it 1%? 10%? Will people freak out about this issue when infections accelerate?

The most often quoted experiment for SARS-CoV-2 persistence on surfaces is this one: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

It's notable that the virus has a decay rate. The graphic from the experiment is shown here.

As you can see, it is viable on cardboard for about 24 hours, and on stainless and plastic for about 72 hours, though it is notably much less concentrated (titers) by that point. This experiment was done in a controlled environment; sunlight and other factors are likely to provide some variation. It seems to me that the risk on mail or cardboard is relatively low.

 

[linux-works]

how does temperature affect it? slows the deactivation (is that the right word?) I would assume.

if I have contaminated surfaces that are going into the fridge or freezer, would there be a general scale factor for the corrected 'safe to use at' date?

are people really (going to) wipe every surface from food and packaged goods, that enter your household? or put them into a 'holding room' (if you have space) and wait for the safety time?

such strange new concepts, sigh. we're all going to have to learn to be 'home lab technicians', now.