Daniel in SD
(supervised)
In that picture you're only right next to 5 people. This isn't the zombie apocalypse, it takes a week to be contagious.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
linux-works
Active Member
I had a lot ready to type out, but I'll just leave this here, instead:
"I find your ideas intriguing and I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter"
MXLRplus
Active Member
I was generalizing for most the passengers. Some ships like Norwegian and to an extent Royal Caribbean: If you are a high end suite customer, you have your own deck, staff, pool, restaurants, etc. This is a small percentage of passengers though. RC even has your own butler for certain suites.
Now, while you can pretty much skip the terminal (suites have private terminal entrance), and you are escorted straight to your room before others board, you must do the Muster Drill.
Dr. J
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I read it somewhere, will see if I can find a citation. Basically the logic is exactly what we have here, death rate estimated based on identified cases during a pandemic when in fact entire populations were eventually 20% infected.
Of course Korea missed 86% of their cases, likely far far more. How many of those infected were asymptomatic and passed it to others who were then asymptomatic? Another huge chunk only have very mild symptoms that are barely noticeable. These groups likely pass it around to each other like crazy since they don't have any reason for concern. The older folks then get it from them, start coughing, are tested and isolated.
Koreans are very good about cooperating with an emergency plan like this, but certainly there are an additional 100k infected, asymptomatic, and "recovered" citizens not included in their denominator. They didn't have a nationwide outbreak of a brand new highly contagious virus and only end up with 9,000 infections.
This is why I think we're seeing the market rally this week. The greedy scumbag investment bankers can now see there's no real path to the apocalypse. Sure we could screw this up further and end up with 1M deaths, but that's very unlikely and also probably perfectly acceptable to these people looking for yield on their billions.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Watch some video of overwhelmed hospitals in NYC and around the world and see what that does to your mental health. I know it's not great for mine...
SDRick
Active Member
If we see an overall .2% fatality rate that's about 680,000 deaths for the USA. That's huge. That's approximately the same number that died in the 1918 Spanish flu (with approximately a 105 million population).
No matter how you slice it, death continues to be America's number one killer.
No matter how you slice it, death continues to be America's number one killer.
Norbert
TSLA will win
linux-works
Active Member
but where do they bury the survivors? huh? answer me that.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
That was one example. You go to the pool on a cruise, crowded. You go eat, crowded. People are always within that 6ft radius. It's a super spreader's paradise.
Dr. J
Active Member
Given the much stronger and timelier responses of China and South Korea, it seems more likely they will ultimately represent a lower bound in deaths per capita.
SDRick
Active Member
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Please find that because everything I see says there's a 10% fatality rate for SARS.
How could testing possibly work if you only catch 16% of cases? There's a reason this virus is so hard to stop, because there are asymptomatic cases! You have to catch them or they'll keep spreading it and create more ASYMPTOMATIC CASES. Your theory that you can stop it by only quarantining symptomatic cases makes no sense.
Also we know from the cruise ship data THAT ONLY ABOUT 60% OF CASES ARE ASYMPTOMATIC. You think that people in Korea, knowing that there's a deadly viral outbreak going on in their community, wouldn't get themselves tested? They've tested 340k people!
jhm
Well-Known Member
Genuine sound concern, but I think it is over stated. I think we are much better off having the general public looking at data, discussing it and trying to understand it. We do need to be willing to take in new ideas and criticism. The idea that only epidemiologists should be looking at data and interpreting it is very condescending. And not helpful. People really do need to see for themselves what is going on. When you look at well constructed charts and realize that things are moving on faster than you thought or slower or just different, you are learning something important. You are actually challenging your biases and ignorance. You are probably learning to ask better questions and to better appreciate the work that epidemiologists and others do. These are all very positive and affirm science.
Where we have bigger problems is when people are motivated to try to persuade others about some sort of political position. Many people are eager to convince others to share their political or social outlook. To that end they will search for materials that seems to confirm their views. This can lead to also sorts of spurious observations and bad inferences. This too is quite human. We see that all the time on this thread. And I'm sure I do it myself. Maybe that's what motivates us to look, but at the end of the day if we have been challenged by data we've seen and reactions from others, we probably are learning something inspite of our cognitive biases. So if we have enough self-awareness to see this in ourselves, we can also see that at work in others.
The answer isn't to shut up and simply accept what experts tell us, it is to be curious and engage humbly with others.
Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has issued an updated IFR estimate of 0.05%-0.14%, based on the testing data from Iceland. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM
That’s not the lowest estimate out there from credible scientists either. And of course there are many estimates that are higher.
In the absence of antibody testing or much more robust models it is hard to have any confidence in any of these estimates. We can all make educated guesses about which is more likely to be right, but if the scientists can’t agree it is hard to say one view is right and one is wrong — it’s just opinion until better data or models are available.
I agree with @jhm that the discussion shouldn’t be limited to epidemiologists or other scientists, especially since they seem to be all over the map (which is understandable given how fast this is moving and how poor most of the data collection has been since everyone is in crisis-mode).
That’s not the lowest estimate out there from credible scientists either. And of course there are many estimates that are higher.
In the absence of antibody testing or much more robust models it is hard to have any confidence in any of these estimates. We can all make educated guesses about which is more likely to be right, but if the scientists can’t agree it is hard to say one view is right and one is wrong — it’s just opinion until better data or models are available.
I agree with @jhm that the discussion shouldn’t be limited to epidemiologists or other scientists, especially since they seem to be all over the map (which is understandable given how fast this is moving and how poor most of the data collection has been since everyone is in crisis-mode).
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In looking for the report link I came across news that the original author was in front of Parliament yesterday revising his 500k death prediction for the UK down to "20k or perhaps much lower". I don't know what New Scientist is, but here's the link to the coverage.
Of course they're now characterizing his original thesis as a "worst case scenario" if the UK and US did absolutely nothing.
Again, this is the kind of thing global institutional investors are latching onto as rationale to jump back into the markets. Even though we're about to go through hell in the US.
Cirrus MS100D
Member
Great to see other folks getting into the 3D printing stuff too. We’ve been printing the same 3 piece mask for a bit, now just waiting on a MERV-16 air conditioning filter to hack up for the “N95-esque” filtering part. My wife already has the elastic band ready to go too.
We’re now experimenting with the plastic visor and found a nice, simple 30 minute PLA job (the one with the black elastic on it in the photo) but again, waiting on actual plastic to cut and mold (we used overhead projector sheets, which are functionally OK, but you can’t see *sugar* through them!)
Here’s the info on the 3 part masks:
COVID-19 Response
And the start of our search for the visor:
PrusaPrinters
Ultimately leading to this simple remix in PLA:
PrusaPrinters
While we’re glad to help, it’s a little disappointing and embarrassing that us dolts in our home are printing up PPE that might get used by actual folks in actual hospitals. (We’ve already spoken to a doctor and a nurse who say that because they’re not dealing directly with COVID-19 patients, they only get surgical masks and would rather have the option of using a homemade N95 or a home made face shield+surgical mask, so that’s why we’re making them.)
linux-works
Active Member
sorry - but I just gotta vent (oh - right).
isn't it always the ones who can afford to lose a little money (they won't be anywhere near homeless or broke) - that complain the friggin LOUDEST, during a crisis like this? "you can't shut down the economy!"
you know who you are. and you should be ashamed of yourself. your mamma didn't bring you up right, at all.
isn't it always the ones who can afford to lose a little money (they won't be anywhere near homeless or broke) - that complain the friggin LOUDEST, during a crisis like this? "you can't shut down the economy!"
you know who you are. and you should be ashamed of yourself. your mamma didn't bring you up right, at all.
Aussie first 1000 cases report
As at 21 March there are 19 countries that have reported more than 1000 confirmed cases. The graph below compares 6 countries on the day they reported more than 1000 confirmed cases.
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/def...arison.png?itok=Wp7DASI0×tamp=1584886051
Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) coronavirus (COVID-19) statement on 22 March 2020
As at 21 March there are 19 countries that have reported more than 1000 confirmed cases. The graph below compares 6 countries on the day they reported more than 1000 confirmed cases.
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/def...arison.png?itok=Wp7DASI0×tamp=1584886051
Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) coronavirus (COVID-19) statement on 22 March 2020
Norbert
TSLA will win
With a better understanding of the Robert Koch Institut's data and a new day's graph, revisiting the question of the trend in Germany:
They add new data (yellow/orange) retroactively to previous days. That's based on keeping track of the date for each data set and determining which data was delayed and needs to get added to a previous day. Unfortunately only about 50% of the data arrives on time, so that gets very confusing for the current day and what the new data means.
On the plus side, it is more accurate for the time 3 days ago, on the downside, it often makes comparing the last 2-3 days almost impossible. The last day will always look like a downtrend, because of incomplete data. Sometimes 2 or maybe even 3 days will look like that.
Here is today's graph, which shows that yesterday's impression of a downtrend was incorrect. Instead, new records upwards are broken:
They add new data (yellow/orange) retroactively to previous days. That's based on keeping track of the date for each data set and determining which data was delayed and needs to get added to a previous day. Unfortunately only about 50% of the data arrives on time, so that gets very confusing for the current day and what the new data means.
On the plus side, it is more accurate for the time 3 days ago, on the downside, it often makes comparing the last 2-3 days almost impossible. The last day will always look like a downtrend, because of incomplete data. Sometimes 2 or maybe even 3 days will look like that.
Here is today's graph, which shows that yesterday's impression of a downtrend was incorrect. Instead, new records upwards are broken:
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