Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

NY state had 23,317 hospitalizations for flu in the 2017-18 season, the peak of that season is likely around where they are now capacity-wise. Not good.

We need this thing to peak and decline in NYC ASAP. Perhaps if we had widespread testing we could have a better understanding of where we are.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Big caveat in the US.

Yep, for instance

Carl Bergstrom has a few thoughts on the model. He is not a fan ?

Carl T. Bergstrom on Twitter

Reading that thread it sounds like the model assumes all states implement consistent social distancing policies and keep them in place until Aug. Also that there’s no second wave. I don’t think we’ll see this prediction hold true unless we quickly implement a national lockdown. Given our government response so far I’m not hopeful it will be implemented quick enough to prevent much worse outcomes than this model. It may already be too late.

I do think a national lockdown and restrictions on travel are inevitable and Trump’s hand will be forced and I fear the cost of delay of such measures will be measured in hundreds of thousands of dead in the US.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The University of Washington has done projections for the peak in each state and how many beds and ICU beds will be needed. Some states are going to be disasters.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

I think they're underestimating what's going to happen in some states that are just getting started. But it's probably pretty accurate for states well into their outbreaks.

When you look at NY data, it is only showing 718 total ICU beds for all of NY. Isn't that a low number for such a large state? It also says that on March 19th, the demand for ICU beds exceeded the supply. It's been 11 days since then, have we seen NY not having enough ICU beds?

Today's NYTimes had an article that says: "Of those, 2,352 are in ventilator-equipped intensive care rooms.". So, there are 2,352 people in ICU beds, yet that web site only shows 718 beds???

 

[Cosmacelf]

Keeping this thread alive

...

Thank you! I've been posting at TMC since 2013 and want to see this resource remain worthwhile.

Me too, but I abandoned this thread a while ago and now just peek in every once in a while. The mods allow purely political statements that would be banned in any other thread. There are several people who post frequently here that only seem to know how to post negative comments. And to top it all off, the mods managed to ban at least one thoughtful contributor, who no longer posts here.

 

[eevee-fan]

Yep, for instance

Reading that thread it sounds like the model assumes all states implement consistent social distancing policies and keep them in place until Aug. Also that there’s no second wave. I don’t think we’ll see this prediction hold true unless we quickly implement a national lockdown. Given our government response so far I’m not hopeful it will be implemented quick enough to prevent much worse outcomes than this model. It may already be too late.

I do think a national lockdown and restrictions on travel are inevitable and Trump’s hand will be forced and I fear the cost of delay of such measures will be measured in hundreds of thousands of dead in the US.

Dr Fauci is saying 100-200k death on best case scenario. Delays would mean much higher death rate. With a 30% daily increase, 3 days means doubling the number of deaths.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Compared to what ?

100% sensitivity means 0% false positives (EDIT: oops. 0% false negatives!).
I was just doing some searching and I guess the issue is getting samples that contain the virus? Real world results for PCR tests are much worse. Isn’t this a big problem for the test everyone plan? It seems like this thing is so contagious telling people who are infected that they are negative will be big problem.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Dr Fauci is saying 100-200k death on best case scenario. Delays would mean much higher death rate. With a 30% daily increase, 3 days means doubling the number of deaths.

That's based on a new Imperial College report that is just as flawed as the one 2 weeks ago that said 2.2M was worst case.

This virus is spreading freely in all regions of the country and will end up infecting tens of millions or more. We've "flattened the curve", but that's not really impacting total deaths. At the end of the day, everyone's still getting it and those at high risk will die.

I found it a little ridiculous that Birix would say 100k if we do "everything perfectly". We are quite literally doing nothing even modestly well.

 

[SageBrush]

This website
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

estimates peak hospital use in NYS by Apr 9th and a bed shortage at that time of ~ 50k beds.
I don't see the methodology they used, but my own crude skills suggest a later, and much higher peak.

I presume peak infections at ~ 35% herd immunity and peak use about a week later.
I further presume community infections are ~ 10x test+ cases
For NYS that is currently an estimated 765k infections per 19M population, so ~ 3.5%
That works out to 5*Ln(10) = 11.5 days until peak daily infections at a growth rate of 0.2 daily
And 18.5 days until peak daily hospital additions

 

[SageBrush]

100% sensitivity means 0% false positives.

No, it means 0% false negatives.
I'll ask again: how is a case known to be a false negative ?

 

[SageBrush]

When you look at NY data, it is only showing 718 total ICU beds for all of NY. Isn't that a low number for such a large state? It also says that on March 19th, the demand for ICU beds exceeded the supply. It's been 11 days since then, have we seen NY not having enough ICU beds?

Today's NYTimes had an article that says: "Of those, 2,352 are in ventilator-equipped intensive care rooms.". So, there are 2,352 people in ICU beds, yet that web site only shows 718 beds???

Available

 

[Bet TSLA]

I read that trump said today that he is 'open' to the idea of widespread face mask use.

Does that mean something coherent and consistent (hah!) in dog whistle ?
Or is he just fertilizing the soil for his apologists to explain away his failure in this regard until now ?

It means that one of his cronies is now ramping up MAGA face masks (that work), and generic ones (that don't). Really, all you have to do is imagine the most despicable possibility and you'll be spot on.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sad milestone reached today:

US Deaths from COVID-19: 3146
US Deaths from 9/11 attacks: 2977

What will be a more apt milestone is when/if we have a day where the deaths on a single day in the United States exceed the deaths on 9/11. It is certainly possible, in the next couple weeks, but I don't think it's a sure thing. The longer we go without all states locking down, the more likely it is. We shall see.

 

[deonb]

and I’m pretty sure we’ll be seeing the same here in the US with some churches we’ve already seen feeling congregating is some how more important or will protect their parishioners from contracting the virus.

Ask and you shall receive:

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

45 out of 60 attendees infected during 1 practice session. Oh and they all took distancing and hygiene precautions.

 

[linux-works]

I'm thinking, we need to get elon involved

again, WHITE TP ROLLS INSTEAD OF ORANGE CONES!


april first is in 2 days. does anyone have elon's ear, via the twit-feed?

seems a good use of manpower, to create TP visuals and change out the orange cones, just for a day or a few days.

I'd totally sign off on it if it were me.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Anyone else notice from the worldometers.info data, that Florida has had ZERO recovered cases of covid-19?! If you take the total cases, minus the deaths, minus the active cases, there's been no recoveries. CA is at 61, WA is at 490, and NY is at 4309 as of today.

Makes one wonder about whether or not we can even rely on the deaths tally out of Florida?

 

[Daniel in SD]

No, it means 0% false negatives.
I'll ask again: how is a case known to be a false negative ?

Oops, yes 0% false negatives. That's a good question, I have no idea.
I can speculate. Someone could show symptoms, test negative but then test positive later. That would very likely be a false positive on the first test. I assume they have some method of determining how accurate the tests are even without the existence of a more accurate test?
The 100% sensitivity of the LabCorp test was a "contrived clinical study" where they put a known amount of SAR-CoV-2 in the sample. So that doesn't mean the test is accurate in the real world.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

IIRC it was tried with the original SARS and MERS, and was inconclusive, and that's why the Chinese decided to try it again (3rd time's the charm?)

That hardly comes across as the definition of insanity. Same therapy, applied to 3 different virii, doesn't sound like it's entirely futile. Just looking at this from a physics/logician's point of view, not as someone with a strong medical background.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Ask and you shall receive:

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

45 out of 60 attendees infected during 1 practice session. Oh and they all took distancing and hygiene precautions.

To be fair that was March 6th. That story is terrifying.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What will be a more apt milestone is when/if we have a day where the deaths on a single day in the United States exceed the deaths on 9/11. It is certainly possible, in the next couple weeks, but I don't think it's a sure thing. The longer we go without all states locking down, the more likely it is. We shall see.

Well if the models say we're going to hit 200k deaths then that is going to happen unless it stays flat for a couple years.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Available

That doesn't do it for me. As far as I can tell the website is saying there are 718 ICU beds available at all times for NY. Which isn't true.