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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
The 50 states doing it piecemeal, at different times, with different degrees, will serve to dramatically prolong and maintain the outbreak as the virus returns to previously quarantined areas. The Federal government should have declared a nationwide lockdown weeks ago now. As it is, large swathes of the US are still operating as if nothing is happening.
I think we'll be dealing with this through the end of the year because of the sheer incompetence of the Federal government combined with American Exceptionalism™ preventing nationwide measures which could actually contain the outbreak. This is why the 1918 Spanish Flu was such a disaster for America, we're just repeating the mistakes of a century ago.
After what will be 4 weeks April 7th here and what I see being extended in the SF Bay area until at least May 1, that’s what worries me. When relaxed, a spiking up and more infections then happening weeks after infection and this cycle that gets created. Hopefully by that time everyone will be able to have some access to masks at least and testing will be easier to come by.
Missouri — It is the Show Me State if I’m not mistaken.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Todesbuckler
Member
We are talking about the same formula, which I used for the infection rate growth calculation.
So with your example it's either :
144/120-1=20% / 120/100-1=20%
Or:
22/120=20% / 20/100=20%
This figure is steadily decreasing in Europe to single digits at the moment. The US is also decreasing steadily. Of course, measurement error in the data seems to be present (not enough test volume growth)
The University of Washington has done projections for the peak in each state and how many beds and ICU beds will be needed. Some states are going to be disasters.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
I think they're underestimating what's going to happen in some states that are just getting started. But it's probably pretty accurate for states well into their outbreaks.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
I think they're underestimating what's going to happen in some states that are just getting started. But it's probably pretty accurate for states well into their outbreaks.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Clinically diagnosed cases.
China changed how it counts coronavirus cases. The full picture is still far from complete - CNN
Keeping this thread alive
Have some of the rest of you noticed the significant lack of "like," "love," "helpful," and "informative" ratings given in this thread in recent days? I have. I think one reason for it is that the quality of the posts have declined. Let's work together to try to improve the quality of this thread. If we don't, people simply avoid it because it becomes too much work to find a worthwhile post and the potential good that can happen here vanishes.
I hope to live by these suggestions too, so here goes...
* Don't treat this thread as a personal message board. If you're posting half a dozen times a day in the thread and not receiving much positive feedback for your efforts, cut back... you're a big part of the problem.
* Don't snipe. Sniping is when you toss some short, sarcastic comment at someone else's post, often to get a laugh from your buddies who feel similar to you. You're wasting our time. The original poster then feels compelled to respond to the snipe and now we're doubly wasting energy. If you truly disagree with something in a post, come right out and identify what it is that you don't like and offer (if possible) a more suitable alternative. What you'll find is that expressing yourself clearly and offering a better alternative to what has been said is much tougher that throwing hand grenades down from your high horse.
* Don't let your political biases get in the way. I grew up in a household with one Democrat and one Republican parent. I learned to see the scoundrels in both parties. There are more of them than ever in both parties. My point is that most of us could care less whether a coronavirus treatment is endorsed by one party or another. We want what will work. Avoid knee-jerk reactions and offer a sound alternative to another person's post if you disagree with it. Stay out of the political weeds, however. That jungle is too thick for any of us to make progress cutting through.
* Offer new ideas. There's a lot of rehashing of the same topics here. Try something fresh if you are exposed to it. The whole idea is to share knowledge and expand the understanding of people who visit this thread.
Thank you! I've been posting at TMC since 2013 and want to see this resource remain worthwhile.
Have some of the rest of you noticed the significant lack of "like," "love," "helpful," and "informative" ratings given in this thread in recent days? I have. I think one reason for it is that the quality of the posts have declined. Let's work together to try to improve the quality of this thread. If we don't, people simply avoid it because it becomes too much work to find a worthwhile post and the potential good that can happen here vanishes.
I hope to live by these suggestions too, so here goes...
* Don't treat this thread as a personal message board. If you're posting half a dozen times a day in the thread and not receiving much positive feedback for your efforts, cut back... you're a big part of the problem.
* Don't snipe. Sniping is when you toss some short, sarcastic comment at someone else's post, often to get a laugh from your buddies who feel similar to you. You're wasting our time. The original poster then feels compelled to respond to the snipe and now we're doubly wasting energy. If you truly disagree with something in a post, come right out and identify what it is that you don't like and offer (if possible) a more suitable alternative. What you'll find is that expressing yourself clearly and offering a better alternative to what has been said is much tougher that throwing hand grenades down from your high horse.
* Don't let your political biases get in the way. I grew up in a household with one Democrat and one Republican parent. I learned to see the scoundrels in both parties. There are more of them than ever in both parties. My point is that most of us could care less whether a coronavirus treatment is endorsed by one party or another. We want what will work. Avoid knee-jerk reactions and offer a sound alternative to another person's post if you disagree with it. Stay out of the political weeds, however. That jungle is too thick for any of us to make progress cutting through.
* Offer new ideas. There's a lot of rehashing of the same topics here. Try something fresh if you are exposed to it. The whole idea is to share knowledge and expand the understanding of people who visit this thread.
Thank you! I've been posting at TMC since 2013 and want to see this resource remain worthwhile.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
MXLRplus
Active Member
Seems Spain received a lot of junk tests from China and junk PPE.
Toyko is now seeing a rise.
Until the US provides enough PPE for healthcare workers AND the hoarders, there will not be supplies of acceptable equipment to normal citizens.
So would you rather your healthcare professionals have PPE or people on the street? The hoarders have decided it will be one or the other.
The US now makes less than 5% of the masks and less than 2% of the gloves. That was our decision as a nation.
Toyko is now seeing a rise.
Until the US provides enough PPE for healthcare workers AND the hoarders, there will not be supplies of acceptable equipment to normal citizens.
So would you rather your healthcare professionals have PPE or people on the street? The hoarders have decided it will be one or the other.
The US now makes less than 5% of the masks and less than 2% of the gloves. That was our decision as a nation.
pilotSteve
Active Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Now I follow.
It will help to be consistent with the lingo:
If Growth rate is a decimal
Growth factor is = Growth rate + 1
Looks like the Bay Area may have reason to be cautiously optimistic:
Bend it like the Bay Area: Doctors see flatter curve after 2 weeks of social isolation
Bend it like the Bay Area: Doctors see flatter curve after 2 weeks of social isolation
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
How bad are the PCR tests we're using in the US? That seems really bad and there would be no way to stop the spread by testing.
This LabCorp PCR test looks like it has 100% sensitivity (small sample size): https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
NYS hospitalization Growth factor this past week:
Coronavirus Hospitalization Numbers Are Spotty. Journalists, Help Us Fill in the Gaps. — ProPublica
IIRC NYS has ~ 100k total "hospital beds."
Optimistically that might be 20k acute care beds available for Covid, so at the current growth rate the hospitals will be stuffed this week. Scary stuff, and we are just at the beginning
From the 'Covid Project'
Coronavirus Hospitalization Numbers Are Spotty. Journalists, Help Us Fill in the Gaps. — ProPublica
IIRC NYS has ~ 100k total "hospital beds."
Optimistically that might be 20k acute care beds available for Covid, so at the current growth rate the hospitals will be stuffed this week. Scary stuff, and we are just at the beginning
From the 'Covid Project'
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Anecdotal information - my wife went grocery shopping today for the first time in 2 weeks. She said at least 30% of the shoppers in our area were wearing face masks, which I thought was significant considering it was 0% the last time she went. Granted, it was merely the timeslice she happened to see. She did visit three stores, however.
It's possible the residents of the Bay Area are taking this more seriously than some other areas, which would contribute to this effect.
Preprint article on how BCG vaccine might confer immunity with some pretty detailed data
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1J
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1J
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