Yes indeed. And most people probably don’t need zinc supplementation anyways. It is the ionophore that is important, supposedly, like Quercetin, to supplement.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yes indeed. And most people probably don’t need zinc supplementation anyways. It is the ionophore that is important, supposedly, like Quercetin, to supplement.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
World data through Mar 31
Least effective benders
US
Turkey
UK
Most effective benders
Switzerland
Italy
Least effective benders
US
Turkey
UK
Most effective benders
Switzerland
Italy
DanCar
Active Member
How about 100K deaths per day? According to my spreadsheet tracker, end of this month or next month.
Coronavirus doubling of deaths every x days
At current trend 10K per day deaths is coming after mid month. For comparison, U.S. normally has 8K deaths per day and 7K deaths per day due to age related illnesses.
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Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:
A number of other hot spots such as Detroit and New Orleans.
News yesterday: javits center open, and comfort navy ship arrived. There are some additional sites that are going to be auxiliary hospitals.
Making sure to coordinate carefully with other hospitals.
NYP Snapshot: 1,651 patients admitted with positive covid status. 25% critically ill, 420 on vents at the present time.
There is no change in our testing guidance: it is still being reserved for the sickest admitted patients. (PCR test: nose swab)
Eventually there will be more out about the blood test, we are working hard to bring that forward.
ICU expansion: we have approx. 400 ICU beds across the enterprise, we are rapidly increasing our ICU capacity to try to get to 1,100 ICU beds. We are taking spaces and transitioning them to ICU spaces.
Town Hall: Two leaders of infectious disease will be answering questions [email protected] (tomorrow: Wednesday 5:30pm)
The emergency department has partnered with our analytics and IT team to monitor patients at home. This is one way that we are trying to get patients home safely.
A number of other hot spots such as Detroit and New Orleans.
News yesterday: javits center open, and comfort navy ship arrived. There are some additional sites that are going to be auxiliary hospitals.
Making sure to coordinate carefully with other hospitals.
NYP Snapshot: 1,651 patients admitted with positive covid status. 25% critically ill, 420 on vents at the present time.
There is no change in our testing guidance: it is still being reserved for the sickest admitted patients. (PCR test: nose swab)
Eventually there will be more out about the blood test, we are working hard to bring that forward.
ICU expansion: we have approx. 400 ICU beds across the enterprise, we are rapidly increasing our ICU capacity to try to get to 1,100 ICU beds. We are taking spaces and transitioning them to ICU spaces.
Town Hall: Two leaders of infectious disease will be answering questions [email protected] (tomorrow: Wednesday 5:30pm)
The emergency department has partnered with our analytics and IT team to monitor patients at home. This is one way that we are trying to get patients home safely.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Haven't been to a store in more than 3 weeks, maybe 4 now. I stocked up early.
All deliveries, including mail, are handled with gloves and go into the garage for 3 days before coming into the house.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
This is showing up in every country. About twice as many men as women are dying from COVID-19.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...r-dying-more-often-covid-19-spain-data-shows/
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Death rates drive their model. The weekend slowdown (mostly a reporting slowdown, IMHO) pushed their peak down, "catch-up Tuesday" drove it back up.
Deaths and D/D growth in cumulative deaths (from Worldometers)
3/27 - 400 / 30.9%
3/28 - 525 / 31.0%
3/29 - 363 / 16.4%
3/30 - 558 / 21.6%
3/31 - 912 / 29.0%
I'm sure they do some smoothing, but numbers that whipsaw like that will play havoc with any model.
Lockdowns are extremely unpopular in rural areas. Governors want Trump to take the heat, he wants the governors to take it.
Source for "majority"? I saw 86% in a random e-mail, of similar quality to the one which claimed the virus couldn't withstand 77 deg F temperature.
It's springtime, probably 1-3% of the general population have pinkeye....
One of those ICU tour videos showed a couple people in these helmets.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This was not a GENERALIZED pink eye diagnosis. This was confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients confirmed with PCR testing of the eyes.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
If we don't see bending of the curve long before 100k deaths per day then we are in some serious trouble. I believe we will, but there could be a few days where deaths top 10k.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Use e^kt for a continuous growth rate.
I've set up simplistic models similar to your spreadsheet using the above exponential function and they also are wildly inaccurate. I'm not positive but I think the basic error is an assumption of R naught throughout, when in fact R is a moving target ("R effective") due to progressive immunity.
They are fine for looking foward for a few days or at very low levels of penetration in the community but they soon break.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
It would be interesting to know the real numbers. Even if the majority of people put on a ventilator survive it's still quite possible that the majority of time spent on ventilators is taken by those who die.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Wow! Thanks! I thought everybody stopped counting on a PPM basis.
It's a dirty little secret that the USA was 8th in fatalities per million a couple weeks ago, but now we are 11th. Telling people that would not induce more panic than there already is.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You are.....let's just say the exception. Who is doing this, maybe .1% of Americans?
And what's being accomplished other than flattening infections? You're still gonna get it at the first baseball game you go to.
DanCar
Active Member
Was accurate all through March. If testing is accurate then doubling will slow to 6.5 days from current 3. Prediction has taken this into account. A more accurate predictor from postive tests would be hospitalization rate, since deaths follow a few weeks after that. Saw hospitalization data over the weekend but don't remember where. I'll start tracking hospitalization rate once I find it again.
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DanCar
Active Member
At 100K deaths per day, we soon saturate, and bending will occur because so many people already have it or had it. I don't know how to define serious trouble, but on the bright side the curve will happen one way or another, and we can get back to something more normal.
From the discussion after all the links this is the recommendation:
"My advice is to take ZINC GLYCINATE twice daily at 20 mg each time for health maintenance. I would leave the trials of ZINC IONOPHORES to medical professionals. Of course, you could get yourself some QUERCETIN for emergencies and use it in conjunction with the ZINC, but you shouldn’t need to do that if you are in good health already. QUERCETIN helps the body absorb ZINC, that should be your goal…increased ZINC absorption. Don’t go overboard with it. Try to control the impulse to cure yourself of something you don’t have. 40 mg of ZINC per day will give you a barrier to the disease that will keep you healthy."
As for the dosage of QUERCETIN the consensus was no more than 500 mg a day and only AFTER you get sick. I have no idea how qualified the people who make these recommendations are, but I still personally plan to follow it and will modify based on how I feel.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't go to baseball games. Flattening the curve is important and the longer you delay getting it the longer time you give the medical community the ability to deal with others, and the greater chance they come up with improved treatments. Also you seem to assume that everyone exposed gets it, which does not seem to be the case. Quite frankly I can go on like this for months as long as I can still get food and the electricity stays on. Yes I realize I'm in the minority.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I thought you were a physician ? Apparently no ICU experience. The survival rate unrelated to Covid in the elderly due to sepsis is ~ 50%
Risk factors for mortality in elderly and very elderly critically ill patients with sepsis: a prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study
Do you have much doubt that Covid is more lethal ?
Second, just look at the Covid data of mortality and ventilation
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It should be drop dead obvious that the way to survive a ventilator ... is to not need one.
Marc Lipsitch and colleagues recently published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine. Among other harebrained ideas, they suggest testing be done to understand the disease, so we can develop rational strategies to respond to it.
Funny joke, and it wasn't even published on April 1.
In the meantime, I received this helpful reminder from Kaiser, which so far thankfully has not been tricked into engaging in such frivolous and wasteful attempts to understand the disease and how it spreads:
Funny joke, and it wasn't even published on April 1.
A key point of these recommendations is that viral testing should not be used only for clinical care. A proportion of testing capacity must be reserved to support public health efforts to characterize the trajectory and severity of the disease. Although this approach may result in many negative test results and therefore appear “wasteful,” such set-aside capacity will permit a far clearer understanding of the spread of the epidemic and wiser use of resources to combat it....
Early investments in characterizing SARS-CoV-2 will pay off handsomely in improving the epidemic response.... Starting these epidemiologic and surveillance activities promptly will enable us to choose the most efficient ways of controlling the epidemic and help us avoid interventions that may be unnecessarily costly or unduly restrictive of normal activity. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2002125
Remember, you don't need to be tested if you aren't showing symptoms
We’re prepared to test patients for COVID-19 if they meet the guidelines set out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and your local public health agency. Testing isn’t recommended for people with mild or moderate symptoms, and you don’t need to be tested if you aren’t showing symptoms.
COVID-19 tests are only available when medically necessary, so please don’t come into a Kaiser Permanente facility for testing unless a doctor refers you. If you’re concerned that you or a family member are showing symptoms of COVID-19, please contact us before coming in.
We’re prepared to test patients for COVID-19 if they meet the guidelines set out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and your local public health agency. Testing isn’t recommended for people with mild or moderate symptoms, and you don’t need to be tested if you aren’t showing symptoms.
COVID-19 tests are only available when medically necessary, so please don’t come into a Kaiser Permanente facility for testing unless a doctor refers you. If you’re concerned that you or a family member are showing symptoms of COVID-19, please contact us before coming in.
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