Coronavirus

[JRP3]

Whistleblower: US failed to prepare, sought quick virus fix

The Trump administration failed to prepare for the onslaught of the coronavirus, then sought a quick fix by trying to rush an unproven drug to patients, a senior government scientist alleged in a whistleblower complaint Tuesday.

Top officials also pressured him to steer contracts to a client of a lobbyist, he reported.

“Time after time I was pressured to ignore or dismiss expert scientific recommendations and instead to award lucrative contracts based on political connections,” Bright said in the call with reporters. “In other words, I was pressured to let politics and cronyism drive decisions over the opinions of the best scientists we have in government.”

 

[MXLRplus]

Whistleblower: US failed to prepare, sought quick virus fix

"The Department of Health and Human Services issued a terse statement saying that Bright was transferred to the National Institutes of Health to work on coronavirus testing, a crucial assignment. “We are deeply disappointed that he has not shown up to work on behalf of the American people and lead on this critical endeavor,” HHS spokeswoman Caitlin Oakley said."

He didn't want to work on testing according to his boss and refused to show up for work. Bet he was bangin' a coworker or didn't want to relocate.

I thought TestingTestingTesting was the only real solution?

 

[JRP3]

He didn't want to work on testing according to his boss and refused to show up for work. Bet he was bangin' a coworker.

But his spokeswoman said that Bright is on sick leave, following his doctor’s orders, and that HHS has provided him no details on his new role.

 

[PeterJA]

In what way, specifically, can you help inform me on the use of vitamin-C in hospitals? It doesn't sound like you know anything other than the two articles you cite?

So you posted an unsupported claim ("...I am sure... it would not surprise me...") and you want me to refute it with even more evidence than I already did.

I saw that game often on Seeking Alpha (the Earth is flat, prove me wrong). Sorry, I don't play.

 

[MXLRplus]

His spokeswoman?

It's certainly not news that there is disagreement about hydroxychloroquine in both Congress and the Executive. So what whistle is he blowing? Is this about the Russian shipment of HCQ that was smuggled in by a Ukrainian porn star while Trump was at a Klan rally banning abortions?

 

[bkp_duke]

Cheng Integrative Health Center Blog
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/
https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-...seTreating-Covid-19-in-ER-April-15-2030_3.pdf


I quoted and linked statements from two trained scientists who are specialists in vitamin C:
Professor Margreet Vissers, Our people, Centre for Free Radical Research, University of Otago, New Zealand
Associate Professor Anitra Carr, Our people, University of Otago, Christchurch, University of Otago, New Zealand
Their statements, including references to the scientific literature, directly contradicted the claim you posted without evidence. Yet you have failed to reply with anything except Disagree ratings and ad hominem attacks.

Show us evidence that the ongoing Chinese clinical trials "are not double-blinded and randomized."

Regardless, scientific evidence for the safety and efficacy of vitamin C for numerous conditions goes far beyond the recent case series and ongoing trials. According to Dr. Cheng, a distinguished scientist and consultant to Chinese expert panels...

Do you know Vit C (or ascorbic acid) is one of the most studied molecules in the world? There are over 65,000 scientific papers written in the world's biggest medical library, the National Library of Medicine, hosted at the NIH (better known as Pubmed.gov or Pubmed.com). So next time when someone tells you that there is not enough research on VC, tell them to do their homework better.
Covid-19, Vitamin C, Vaccine and Integrative Medicine (2) | Cheng Integrative Health Center Blog​

Yes, I too can play the game of appealing to authority.


This too is a mischaracterization of my position. You don't have to be "paid off" (currently or otherwise) by Big Pharma to have prejudices shaped by the Pharma-dominated system that trained you (including with classic thought-control techniques such as sleep deprivation during Internship).

I have found that conventionally trained doctors fall into two broad categories: those who trust their training and sneer at alternatives, and those who discovered to their shock that drug-based medicine failed them or loved ones, and were forced to consider alternatives. Apparently you escaped the latter trauma. Lucky you.

Again, the data is sufficient to support use (call it compassionate use) in people with no alternative while harder data is pending. If you or your loved ones get seriously sick, you will want every chance you can get.

Thank you for your long and detailed reply. I prefer it to endless Disagree ratings.

Actually, I did read your pseudo-science.

1) go to the bottom of the NY Post article you linked.
"The randomized, triple-blind study will involve an estimated 140 participants and is expected to be complete by Sept. 30, according to information posted on the US National Library of Medicine’s website."

Since you aren't a scientist, I'll have to explain this: 140 people (assuming 70 per group) is NOT enough to power a study for the outcome they are trying to investigate. The difference would have to be . . . GIGANTIC to get a significant p value.

2) you are quoting blogs and news posts. I don't see a single journal article in anything you are quoting. Journal articles are the FOUNDATION of science. Everything else is too tainted with opinion, supposition, and conjecture that has not been tested through the peer-review process.

3) you are personally attacking me - that's classic of those arguing from a weak position: use of personal attacks to distract from the fact that you don't have the data to back up your claims.

4) I've read all of Dr. Vissers' journal articles. Literally all of them (it didn't take long, she's not exactly a publication machine). There is nothing in them to support the COVID-19 claims you are making. You are trying to take her sub-cellular data (i.e. test tube), and extrapolate that to a physiology level (i.e. whole organism). That doesn't work for just about everything out there because of the exponential complexity seen as the number of interactions between cells, within cells, and between organisms increases. This was the Achilles Heel for hydroxychloroquine - - THE TEST-TUBE DATA DID NOT TRANSLATE INTO LIVING ORGANISMS. The two researchers you listed have ONLY test-tube data, and it's not really new test-tube data either. That tells me they did some physiologic studies and the data were most likely inconclusive (i.e. not good enough to get published).

I've had patients on "compassionate usage" protocols. You MUST give the FDA and your IRB (hospital Institutional Review Board - the people that make sure you are not doing something unethical) two things to get approval:
1) evidence that your treatment will do no harm or minimal harm under the circumstances
2) at least reasonable evidence that your treatment has a reasonable chance to improve the status of the patient.

Your claims fail scientific evidence-based standards for #2. This is NOT something subjective, there are hard criteria that have to be met, and they just don't get close.


BTW, I have a close friend who's a physician at Cornell in NYC, and they looked at AND REJECTED using Vitamin C in their treatments. They cited "insufficient evidence of any reasonable efficacy based upon the literature." They did go with Hydroxychloroquine, but that turned out to not help any either (and a few patients had bad heart outcomes from it).


YOU ARE MAKING THE CLAIMS ABOUT VITAMIN C - it is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO PROVE THEM. It's not MY responsibility to disprove . . . something that has no scientific proof. And no, what you have presented is NOT proof. No peer review process would allow an author to come to the conclusions you are trying to make. The data is too weak, or in this case non-existant.


Until you bring something better than what you have posted to date, this will be my last reply regarding this. You are no longer worth the time.

 

[JRP3]

His spokeswoman?

It's certainly not news that there is disagreement about hydroxychloroquine in both Congress and the Executive. So what whistle is he blowing? Is this about the Russian shipment of HCQ that was smuggled in by a Ukrainian porn star while Trump was at a Klan rally banning abortions?

I guess you didn't read the article, or didn't like what it said and ignored most of it.

 

[jhm]

Sure, for 4/30, deaths are up 2,201, for a total of 63,856. The continues to push the dumb-ass and 14-day ultimate projections to 84,668 and 114,412, respectively.

View attachment 537654
View attachment 537655

Ok, it's time to upgrade from the dumb-ass model to a smart-ass model. I've been playing around with the case data and have noticed that trends seem to be pointing to several millions of case. So I have integrated both case and deaths into a model. This is roughly a multivariate response variation on the univariate dumb-ass model. The model is regressing both case and death growth rates on log(cases) and log(deaths). This way both outcomes are pricking up information from both processes. I am also limiting this regression to the last 28 days to avoid the nonlinearities of the deeper historical series. This also means I am incorporating the suggestion of the 14-day rolling fit, but simply extending it back 2 more weeks.

The smart-ass model also yields ultimate deaths and counts. Some will object that this does not allow for a second wave. In a single projection that of course is true, but if say case growth were to start to grow into the start of second wave, the smart-ass model would start to pick up on that both for cases and deaths. In deed, examination of the coefficients shows that if cases were to grow faster deaths, that would increase the expected growth rates of both deaths and cases. So the inclusion of cases as a leading indicator of deaths is an advantage of the smart-ass model over the dumb-ass model.

So let's see the results as of today. The smart-ass model projects 2.5 million ultimate cases and 153k deaths. This is substantially more than the dumb-ass model and 14-days model are projecting, 90k and 105k ultimate deaths respectively. The difference seems to be the push from new cases which the smart-ass is able to register.

It makes little difference visually whether we plot growth rates on total cases or total deaths. Either way, smart-ass model projects that both rates converge to each other and ultimately to zero (at ultimate cases and ultimate deaths).

Smart-Ass Projections are brought to you by the makers of SolaBag. Let the sunshine in!

 

[dhanson865]

The fab 5 with one leading the pack

The roller coaster of US deaths. Trending down but not much slope there. A 5 or 7 day moving average would probably present this better.

 

[dfwatt]

This rings hollow from someone who first replied to me with the following, and has yet to support it with anything I said:


Is it "hypersensitivity" to correct the record?

Right now, thousands of innocent people are dying every day because they trust a corrupt medical system, and because news of a nontoxic, non-drug treatment that very likely could save them is being suppressed by industry-captured media and government, and because most doctors and their victims have been taught to sneer at such treatments without even looking at the science.

Do I feel "manifest irritation" about that? I plead guilty.

In response to a request to tone down the intensity of your rhetoric we get a rant. That says it all.

 

[bubb]

His spokeswoman?

It's certainly not news that there is disagreement about hydroxychloroquine in both Congress and the Executive. So what whistle is he blowing? Is this about the Russian shipment of HCQ that was smuggled in by a Ukrainian porn star while Trump was at a Klan rally banning abortions?

OMG, reading this post makes me so thankful for the "white coats" showing leadership as the "red hats" do absolutely nothing but continue to play free association word salad scrabble. Another for the ignore pile .

 

[PeterJA]

Actually, I did read your pseudo-science.

1) go to the bottom of the NY Post article you linked.
"The randomized, triple-blind study will involve an estimated 140 participants and is expected to be complete by Sept. 30, according to information posted on the US National Library of Medicine’s website."

Since you aren't a scientist, I'll have to explain this: 140 people (assuming 70 per group) is NOT enough to power a study for the outcome they are trying to investigate. The difference would have to be . . . GIGANTIC to get a significant p value.

There are three IV-C trials underway in China, not one, according to Dr. Cheng who helped organize them. You are quoting a news post, right before complaining that I did.

And actually I have degrees in Physics and Engineering, for which I studied statistics and the methodology of science. I know what randomized trials and p-values are, but I've cited evidence instead of appealing to my authority. That's what scientists do.

2) you are quoting blogs and news posts. I don't see a single journal article in anything you are quoting.

Then you haven't looked, as I said. The statements by the two vitamin C scientists are fully referenced to journal literature, as is every article at Orthomolecular.org, several of which I linked. Dr Cheng's blog contains breaking news that hasn't hit the journals yet, but his articles are referenced.

3) you are personally attacking me - that's classic of those arguing from a weak position: use of personal attacks to distract from the fact that you don't have the data to back up your claims.

Really? I've linked lots of evidence, and seen none from you... just insults like "pseudo-science" and a facepalm gif.

4) I've read all of Dr. Vissers' journal articles. Literally all of them (it didn't take long, she's not exactly a publication machine). There is nothing in them to support the COVID-19 claims you are making. You are trying to take her sub-cellular data (i.e. test tube), and extrapolate that to a physiology level (i.e. whole organism). That doesn't work for just about everything out there because of the exponential complexity seen as the number of interactions between cells, within cells, and between organisms increases. This was the Achilles Heel for hydroxychloroquine - - THE TEST-TUBE DATA DID NOT TRANSLATE INTO LIVING ORGANISMS. The two researchers you listed have ONLY test-tube data, and it's not really new test-tube data either. That tells me they did some physiologic studies and the data were most likely inconclusive (i.e. not good enough to get published).

Let me get this straight. You think two vitamin C specialists know only what they published in their specialty? And the references they cited in their statements were made up?

I've had patients on "compassionate usage" protocols. You MUST give the FDA and your IRB (hospital Institutional Review Board - the people that make sure you are not doing something unethical) two things to get approval:
1) evidence that your treatment will do no harm or minimal harm under the circumstances
2) at least reasonable evidence that your treatment has a reasonable chance to improve the status of the patient.

Your claims fail scientific evidence-based standards for #2. This is NOT something subjective, there are hard criteria that have to be met, and they just don't get close.

Actually I'm quite familiar with the FDA's compassionate use program, since I'm currently taking an experimental drug with their permission. Again you are appealing to your authority to judge the vitamin C evidence better than specialists and the critical-care doctors saving lives right now.

BTW, I have a close friend who's a physician at Cornell in NYC, and they looked at AND REJECTED using Vitamin C in their treatments. They cited "insufficient evidence of any reasonable efficacy based upon the literature." They did go with Hydroxychloroquine, but that turned out to not help any either (and a few patients had bad heart outcomes from it).

I see. So your friend told you vitamin C has insufficient evidence, and you trust him/her more than specialists and all the doctors with direct experience using it.

YOU ARE MAKING THE CLAIMS ABOUT VITAMIN C - it is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO PROVE THEM. It's not MY responsibility to disprove . . . something that has no scientific proof. And no, what you have presented is NOT proof. No peer review process would allow an author to come to the conclusions you are trying to make. The data is too weak, or in this case non-existant.

It is your responsibility to look at the evidence I linked before claiming it is weak or nonexistent. You'll find plenty of journal references here:
Orthomolecular News

Until you bring something better than what you have posted to date, this will be my last reply regarding this. You are no longer worth the time.

Too bad. I was just warming up.

 

[PeterJA]

In response to a request to tone down the intensity of your rhetoric we get a rant. That says it all.

Yes, it says insults and deadly corruption can get under my skin.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So you posted an unsupported claim ("...I am sure... it would not surprise me...") and you want me to refute it with even more evidence than I already did.

I saw that game often on Seeking Alpha (the Earth is flat, prove me wrong). Sorry, I don't play.

C'mon, man. I also said immediately thereafter "To be clear, I have no idea." Obviously, the phrase "I am sure" in that context was not meant to be interpreted as a statement of surety.

Just asking whether you know anything. I can 100% assure you, I do not know, nor am I sure. (Specifically I am referring to what doctors know about IV Vit-C and whether it is used routinely.)

 

[PeterJA]

Specifically I am referring to what doctors know about IV Vit-C and whether it is used routinely.

Well, @bkp_duke claims to be a doctor, and claims to have a doctor friend in NYC. Judging from that sample, I'd say not much and no. But the p-value of that survey result could be better.

 

[PeterJA]

4) I've read all of Dr. Vissers' journal articles. Literally all of them (it didn't take long, she's not exactly a publication machine).

I see now that I've been giving you too much credit for honest ignorance and respect for the truth. Either that or you truly are a speed-reader, and while posting a dozen messages on TMC, you somehow read all the papers below in the 26 hours after I linked Dr. Vissers' publication list. The latter seems unlikely.

Don't feel bad about not debating me further. I too have lost interest.

Pullar, J. M., Dunham, S., Dachs, G. U., Vissers, M. C. M., & Carr, A. C. (2020). Erythrocyte ascorbate is a potential indicator of steady-state plasma ascorbate concentrations in healthy non-fasting individuals. Nutrients, 12(2), 418. doi: 10.3390/nu12020418

Talla, U., Bozonet, S. M., Parker, H. A., Hampton, M. B., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2019). Prolonged exposure to hypoxia induces an autophagy-like cell survival program in human neutrophils. Journal of Leukocyte Biology. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1002/jlb.4a0319-079rr

Wohlrab, C., Kuiper, C., Vissers, M. C. M., Phillips, E., Robinson, B. A., & Dachs, G. U. (2019). Ascorbate modulates the hypoxic pathway by increasing intracellular activity of the HIF hydroxylases in renal cell carcinoma cells. Hypoxia, 7, 17-31. doi: 10.2147/hp.S201643

Tang, J. S., Bozonet, S. M., McKenzie, J. L., Anderson, R. F., Melton, L. D., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2019). Physiological concentrations of blueberry-derived phenolic acids reduce monocyte adhesion to human endothelial cells. Molecular Nutrition & Food Research. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1002/mnfr.201900478

Campbell, E. J., Dachs, G. U., Morrin, H. R., Davey, V., Robinson, B. A., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2019). Activation of the hypoxia pathway in breast cancer tissue and patient survival are inversely associated with tumor ascorbate levels. BMC Cancer, 19, 307. doi: 10.1186/s12885-019-5503-x

Tang, J. S., Vissers, M. C. M., Anderson, R. F., Sreebhavan, S., Bozonet, S. M., Scheepens, A., & Melton, L. D. (2018). Bioavailable blueberry-derived phenolic acids at physiological concentrations enhance Nrf2-regulated antioxidant responses in human vascular endothelial cells. Molecular Nutrition & Food Research, 62(5), 1700647. doi: 10.1002/mnfr.201700647

Wohlrab, C., Vissers, M. C. M., Phillips, E., Morrin, H., Robinson, B. A., & Dachs, G. U. (2018). The association between ascorbate and the hypoxia-inducible factors in human renal cell carcinoma requires a functional von Hippel-Lindau protein. Frontiers in Oncology, 8, 574. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2018.00574

Pullar, J. M., Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2018). High vitamin C status is associated with elevated mood in male tertiary students. Antioxidants, 7(7), 91. doi: 10.3390/antiox7070091

Ang, A., Pullar, J. M., Currie, M. J., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2018). Vitamin C and immune cell function in inflammation and cancer [Review]. Biochemical Society Transactions. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1042/bst20180169

Conner, T. S., Brookie, K. L., Carr, A. C., Mainvil, L. A., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2017). Let them eat fruit! The effect of fruit and vegetable consumption on psychological well-being in young adults: A randomized controlled trial. PLoS ONE, 12(2), e0171206. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171206

Brookie, K. L., Mainvil, L. A., Carr, A. C., Vissers, M. C. M., & Conner, T. S. (2017). The development and effectiveness of an ecological momentary intervention to increase daily fruit and vegetable consumption in low-consuming young adults. Appetite, 108, 32-41. doi: 10.1016/j.appet.2016.09.015

Mitsuya, K., Parker, A. N., Liu, L., Ruan, J., Vissers, M. C. M., & Myatt, L. (2017). Alterations in the placental methylome with maternal obesity and evidence for metabolic regulation. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0186115. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186115

Pullar, J. M., Carr, A. C., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2017). The roles of vitamin C in skin health. Nutrients, 9(8), 866. doi: 10.3390/nu9080866

Pearson, J. F., Pullar, J. M., Wilson, R., Spittlehouse, J. K., Vissers, M. C. M., Skidmore, P. M. L., Willis, J., Cameron, V. A., & Carr, A. C. (2017). Vitamin C status correlates with markers of metabolic and cognitive health in 50-year-olds: Findings of the CHALICE Cohort Study. Nutrients, 9(8), 831. doi: 10.3390/nu9080831

Pullar, J. M., Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., Rosengrave, P., Kettle, A. J., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2017). Elevated seminal plasma myeloperoxidase is associated with a decreased sperm concentration in young men. Andrology, 5(3), 431-438. doi: 10.1111/andr.12327

Campbell, E. J., Vissers, M. C. M., & Dachs, G. U. (2016). Ascorbate availability affects tumor implantation-take rate and increases tumor rejection in Gulo-/- mice. Hypoxia, 4, 41-52. doi: 10.2147/HP.S103088

Carr, A. C., Pullar, J. M., Bozonet, S. M., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2016). Marginal ascorbate status (Hypovitaminosis C) results in an attenuated response to vitamin C supplementation. Nutrients, 8(6), 341. doi: 10.3390/nu8060341

Campbell, E. J., Vissers, M. C. M., Wohlrab, C., Hicks, K. O., Strother, R. M., Bozonet, S. M., Robinson, B. A., & Dachs, G. U. (2016). Pharmacokinetic and anti-cancer properties of high dose ascorbate in solid tumours of ascorbate-dependent mice. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 99, 451-462. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2016.08.027

Campbell, E. J., Vissers, M. C. M., Bozonet, S., Dyer, A., Robinson, B. A., & Dachs, G. U. (2015). Restoring physiological levels of ascorbate slows tumor growth and moderates HIF-1 pathway activity in Gulo−/− mice. Cancer Medicine, 4(2), 303-314. doi: 10.1002/cam4.349

Wilkie-Grantham, R. P., Magon, N. J., Harwood, D. T., Kettle, A. J., Vissers, M. C., Winterbourn, C. C., & Hampton, M. B. (2015). Myeloperoxidase-dependent lipid peroxidation promotes the oxidative modification of cytosolic proteins in phagocytic neutrophils. Journal of Biological Chemistry, 290(15), 9896-9905. doi: 10.1074/jbc.M114.613422

Bozonet, S. M., Carr, A. C., Pullar, J. M., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2015). Enhanced human neutrophil vitamin C status, chemotaxis and oxidant generation following dietary supplementation with vitamin C-rich SunGold kiwifruit. Nutrients, 7(4), 2574-2588. doi: 10.3390/nu7042574

Kuiper, C., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2014). Ascorbate as a cofactor for Fe-and 2-oxoglutarate dependent dioxygenases: Physiological activity in tumour growth and progression. Frontiers in Oncology, 4, 359. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2014.00359

Flett, T., Campbell, E. J., Phillips, E., Vissers, M. C. M., & Dachs, G. U. (2014). Gulonolactone addition to human hepatocellular carcinoma cells with gene transfer of gulonolactone oxidase restores ascorbate biosynthesis and reduces hypoxia inducible factor 1. Biomedicines, 2(1), 98-109. doi: 10.3390/biomedicines2010098

Kuiper, C., Vissers, M. C. M., & Hicks, K. O. (2014). Pharmacokinetic modelling of ascorbate diffusion through normal and tumour tissue. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 77, 340-352. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2014.09.023

Vissers, M. C. M., Kuiper, C., & Dachs, G. U. (2014). Regulation of the 2-oxoglutarate-dependent dioxygenases and implications for cancer. Biochemical Society Transactions, 42(4), 945-951. doi: 10.1042/bst20140118

Kuiper, C., Dachs, G. U., Currie, M. J., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2014). Intracellular ascorbate enhances hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-hydroxylase activity and preferentially suppresses the HIF-1 transcriptional response. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 69, 308-317. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2014.01.033

Carr, A. C., Vissers, M. C. M., & Cook, J. S. (2014). The effect of intravenous vitamin C on cancer- and chemotherapy-related fatigue and quality of life. Frontiers in Oncology, 4, 283. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2014.00283

Kuiper, C., Dachs, G. U., Munn, D., Currie, M. J., Robinson, B. A., Pearson, J. F., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2014). Increased tumour ascorbate is associated with extended disease-free survival and decreased hypoxia-inducible factor-1 activation in human colorectal cancer. Frontiers in Oncology, 4, 10. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2014.00010

Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., Pullar, J. M., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2013). Mood improvement in young adult males following supplementation with gold kiwifruit, a high-vitamin C food. Journal of Nutritional Science, 2, e24. doi: 10.1017/jns.2013.12

Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., Pullar, J. M., Simcock, J. W., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2013). A randomized steady-state bioavailability study of synthetic versus natural (kiwifruit-derived) vitamin C. Nutrients, 5(9), 3684-3695. doi: 10.3390/nu5093684

Carr, A. C., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2013). Synthetic or food-derived vitamin C—are they equally bioavailable? Nutrients, 5(11), 4284-4304. doi: 10.3390/nu5114284

Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., Pullar, J. M., Simcock, J. W., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2013). Human skeletal muscle ascorbate is highly responsive to changes in vitamin C intake and plasma concentrations. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 97, 800-807. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.112.053207

Carr, A. C., Bozonet, S. M., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2013). A randomised cross-over pharmacokinetic bioavailability study of synthetic versus kiwifruit-derived vitamin C. Nutrients, 5(11), 4451-4461. doi: 10.3390/nu5114451

Carr, A. C., Pullar, J. M., Moran, S., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2012). Bioavailability of vitamin C from kiwifruit in non-smoking males: Determination of ‘healthy’ and ‘optimal’ intakes. Journal of Nutritional Science, 1, e14. doi: 10.1017/jns.2012.15

Stacey, M. M., Vissers, M. C., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2012). Oxidation of 2-Cys peroxiredoxins in human endothelial cells by hydrogen peroxide, hypochlorous acid and chloramines. Antioxidants & Redox Signaling, 17(3), 411-421. doi: 10.1089/ars.2011.4348

Parker, A., Cuddihy, S. L., Son, T. G., Vissers, M. C. M., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2011). Roles of superoxide and myeloperoxidase in ascorbate oxidation in stimulated neutrophils and H2O2-treated HL60 cells. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 51(7), 1399-1405. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2011.06.029

Vissers, M. C. M., Bozonet, S. M., Pearson, J. F., & Braithwaite, L. J. (2011). Dietary ascorbate intake affects steady state tissue concentrations in vitamin C-deficient mice: Tissue deficiency after suboptimal intake and superior bioavailability from a food source (kiwifruit). American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 93, 292-301. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.110.004853

Bozonet, S. M., Scott-Thomas, A. J., Nagy, P., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2010). Hypothiocyanous acid is a potent inhibitor of apoptosis and caspase 3 activation in endothelial cells. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 49(6), 1054-1063. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2010.06.028

Kuiper, C., Molenaar, I. G. M., Dachs, G. U., Currie, M. J., Sykes, P. H., & Vissers, M. C. M. (2010). Low ascorbate levels are associated with increased hypoxia-inducible factor-1 activity and an aggressive tumor phenotype in endometrial cancer. Cancer Research, 70(14), 5749-5758. doi: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-10-0263

Stacey, M. M., Peskin, A. V., Vissers, M. C., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2009). Chloramines and hypochlorous acid oxidize erythrocyte peroxiredoxin 2. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 47(10), 1468-1476. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2009.08.022

Cuddihy, S. L., Parker, A., Harwood, D. T., Vissers, M. C. M., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2008). Ascorbate interacts with reduced glutathione to scavenge phenoxyl radicals in HL60 cells. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 44(8), 1637-1644. doi: 10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2008.01.021

Vissers, M. C. M., Gunningham, S. P., Morrison, M. J., Dachs, G. U., & Currie, M. J. (2007). Modulation of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha in cultured primary cells by intracellular ascorbate. Free Radical Biology & Medicine, 42, 765-772.

Vissers, M. C. M., & Wilkie, R. P. (2007). Ascorbate deficiency results in impaired neutrophil apoptosis and clearance and is associated with up-regulation of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α. Journal of Leukocyte Biology, 81, 1236-1244. doi: 10.1189/jlb.0806541

Wilkie, R. P., Vissers, M. C. M., Dragunow, M., & Hampton, M. B. (2007). A functional NADPH oxidase prevents caspase involvement in the clearance of phagocytic neutrophils. Infection & Immunity, 75(7), 3256-3263.

Midwinter, R. G., Cheah, F.-C., Moskovitz, J., Vissers, M. C., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2006). IκB is a sensitive target for oxidation by cell-permeable chloramines: Inhibition of NF-κB activity by glycine chloramine through methionine oxidation. Biochemical Journal, 396, 71-78.

Professor Margreet Vissers, Our people, Centre for Free Radical Research, University of Otago, New Zealand​

 

[Norbert]

Yep, could definitely go either way. No disagreement there. I'm staying positive! If we're hitting 500k+ tests daily nationwide in week, I think we could be on a good path. Tracing personnel hiring will continue to ramp up rapidly, is my understanding.

That would imply that there is no upper bound? You could still try to calculate a lower bound, or a continuation of the current trend, but chances are it will be more than that. Does that reflect your position?

An upper bound exists only if you have reason to believe that Rt is a definite amount below 1.

That being said, the CDC says we are still in the "acceleration phase" of the pandemic. And they played "Live and Let Die" at the mask factory Trump visited today. Appropriate, I guess. So they probably know more than I do.

I didn't know about that. What are you referring to?

 

[Norbert]

I am also limiting this regression to the last 28 days to avoid the nonlinearities of the deeper historical series. This also means I am incorporating the suggestion of the 14-day rolling fit, but simply extending it back 2 more weeks.

Interesting, so it might still serve as an indicator of the current trend.

So I have integrated both case and deaths into a model. This is roughly a multivariate response variation on the univariate dumb-ass model. The model is regressing both case and death growth rates on log(cases) and log(deaths). This way both outcomes are pricking up information from both processes.

So how will it respond if known cases grow partially because of increased testing? Will it adapt? Could testing be another "leading indicator", or is the data too limited to derive an improvement from that?

Some will object that this does not allow for a second wave. In a single projection that of course is true, but if say case growth were to start to grow into the start of second wave, the smart-ass model would start to pick up on that both for cases and deaths. In deed, examination of the coefficients shows that if cases were to grow faster deaths, that would increase the expected growth rates of both deaths and cases. So the inclusion of cases as a leading indicator of deaths is an advantage of the smart-ass model over the dumb-ass model.

Because of many states reopening to various levels, there may be/will be another sub-wave soon. Wave 1.5. So we will see. (Probably.)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not enough tests the entire time until just recently.

There still aren't nearly enough tests unfortunately.

That would imply that there is no upper bound? You could still try to calculate a lower bound, or a continuation of the current trend, but chances are it will be more than that. Does that reflect your position?

And upper bound exists only if you have reason to believe that Rt is a definite amount below 1.

I guess I'm saying that test and trace definitely needs to have capacity to deal with existing cases. At the outset, enough capacity to drive R below 1 even if it starts above 1. If you don't have that capacity it could be really bad.

There's definitely an upper bound. Lower bound I think right now is about 130k deaths, but really can't see us getting that low.

I didn't know about that. What are you referring to?

Aaron Rupar on Twitter

Trying to track down the CDC claim I saw on Twitter. There is that terminology on the website but it has not been updated since April 19th. It seems pretty clear that we could be in the acceleration phase, though I didn't think we were.

 

[Norbert]

There's definitely an upper bound. Lower bound I think right now is about 130k deaths, but really can't see us getting that low.

No definite upper bound in so far as I can't imagine that people will go along with (much) more than 500K deaths. At some point, people will ask to turn around again with mitigation. Also, Trump wouldn't get re-elected with that kind of death count.