Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

Thats the point, mask's are directly useful but indirectly counterproductive, because they caused a false sense of security.

Physical distancing is far superior than medical masks (as opposed to respirators), but if masks are thought as useful, then why not let the migrants pack together? after all, they are issued masks, its the law.

If it causes risk compensation, then sure I'll change my mind. I'm just extremely skeptical that it counteracts the benefits.
I don't think masks do anything when you're living in an enclosed space with other infected people. Unless you're wearing the mask (respirator) I'm wearing in my new avatar.

 

[SageBrush]

So I take it you are not so sold on ASA either.

You are mistaken. I was pointing out to you the reasoning flaw in following the latest study.

I think that the best conclusion is drawn from meta-analysis of well conducted studies. The exceptions would be finding flaws in some of the studies or finding that the conditions had changed. A valuable negative study in and of itself does not negate other valuable positive studies, although it does increase the likelihood of a smaller benefit.

It is surprising how much medical statistics has been discussed in this thread, and how often it is abused.

 

[SageBrush]

Thats the point, mask's are directly useful but indirectly counterproductive, because they caused a false sense of security.

If only unbridled confidence in conjecture was worth a penny.

 

[RobStark]

Weird: Guy Injected With Bill Gates’ New Vaccine Suddenly Thinks Internet Explorer Is The Greatest

 

[Norbert]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...241454-913f-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Although he is now tested every day with a rapid-result machine, Trump has questioned the value of extensive testing as the gap between available capacity and the amount that would be required to meet public health benchmarks has become clearer.

Asked about the positive test result for one of his Navy valets, the president said that he himself remains negative but that the valet’s experience is instructive.

“And this is why testing isn’t necessary. We have the best testing in the world, but testing’s not necessarily the answer because they were testing them,” Trump said of the staff members.

Hmm, he got infected in spite of being tested...

“I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests. This is going to go away without a vaccine,” Trump said, a statement at direct odds with the physicians on his coronavirus task force. “It’s going to go away and it’s, we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time. You may have some, some flare-ups,” in the fall or later, the president said.

“They die too,” Trump said of viruses.

What? This must be fake news.... EDIT: Uhh, no, he actually said it. How does he know? I mean, he surely must know that if he says it.

 

[traxila]

You are mistaken. I was pointing out to you the reasoning flaw in following the latest study.

I think that the best conclusion is drawn from meta-analysis of well conducted studies. The exceptions would be finding flaws in some of the studies or finding that the conditions had changed. A valuable negative study in and of itself does not negate other valuable positive studies, although it does increase the likelihood of a smaller benefit.

It is surprising how much medical statistics has been discussed in this thread, and how often it is abused.

Actually not sold either way. Pointing out how some recent quality research of late has cast doubts on the role and efficacy of ASA, and that the resistance to its acceptance is not automatically a nefarious plot. That it was not a settled argument that ASA is a slam dunk, as the poster I responded to implied.

 

[Ocelot]

I think that the best conclusion is drawn from meta-analysis of well conducted studies. The exceptions would be finding flaws in some of the studies or finding that the conditions had changed. A valuable negative study in and of itself does not negate other valuable positive studies, although it does increase the likelihood of a smaller benefit.

It is surprising how much medical statistics has been discussed in this thread, and how often it is abused.

I would disagree with the meta-analysis part. Statistics can do whatever you want them to. I agree conclusion can be drawn from a super well conducted study. Ever see a whole bunch of negative studies, combine to form a positive? Stuff gets skewered all the time, and meta-analysis opens itself up way pick and choosing what goes on the skewer. ie. this study was not included as bob's uncle ate cheerios while mercury was in retrograde, and he is a virgo, so obviously not included.

 

[TEG]

Nearly one-third of Americans believe a coronavirus vaccine exists and is being withheld, survey finds

 

[RobStark]

There's repeated claims from the Swedish authorities (ambassador the most recently) that they have something like 30% antibody prevalence in Stockholm. I haven't seen the support for this claim. (Last I heard they had mixed in some COVID patient blood donors with their random blood draw serology survey.)

Coronavirus: Sweden's Anders Tegnell stands by unorthodox strategy

"Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency – the nation's top infectious disease official and architect of Sweden's coronavirus response –denied that "herd immunity" formed the central thrust of Sweden's containment plan, in an interview with USA TODAY. Yet he also said the country may be starting to see the impact of "herd immunity."

This is a lightly edited transcript of USA TODAY's interview with Tegnell.

Tegnell: We are doing two major investigations. We may have those results this week or a bit later in May. We know from modeling and some data we have already – these data are a little uncertain – that we probably had a transmission peak in Stockholm a couple of weeks ago, which means that we are probably hitting the peak of infections right about now. We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks. "

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks. "

I guess we will see how it works out. With 1660 deaths, I would roughly estimate 200k infections in Stockholm, or close to 20% infected as of 1-2 weeks ago

Definitely could approach these numbers now in Stockholm, but they were making these claims around April 20th...was probably closer to 10% then.

Anyway at 20%, with some social distancing, you’d expect to start to see some slowdown, similar to NYC, and I would guess that may be why we’re seeing some drop off in Sweden (though it looks to be slow so far).

Just guessing though.

The rest of the country is more problematic though. On average should be nowhere near 20%. Closer to 2%....

 

[renim]

If only unbridled confidence in conjecture was worth a penny.

So very true.
The hierarchy of control - WorkSafe

 

[linux-works]

Nearly one-third of Americans believe a coronavirus vaccine exists and is being withheld, survey finds

wanted for questioning:

 

[SageBrush]

What? This must be fake news

Why do you bother reading the trump moron ?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Sweden population 10.23M has 25,265 confirmed cases
Stockholm County population 2.344M has 8,536 confirmed cases

Sweden doesn't even pretend to test all cases.

I guess we will see how it works out. With 1660 deaths, I would roughly estimate 200k infections in Stockholm, or close to 20% infected as of 1-2 weeks ago

1660 dead in Stockholm city limits (974k population) or in greater Stockholm metro area (2.38m)?

Very surprising (to me) paper from China about household attack rate of SAR-CoV-2.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa450/5821281
This makes me wonder if super spreaders are the primary source of infection. We know from large group settings like nursing homes, choir practices, churches, call centers, and prisons that the attack rate can be very high.

• 0% transmission from those who self-isolated within the household. But only 14 people, all in 2 person households.
• 14% true asymptomatics among those infected in the household
• Weird age gaps in this study group?
• Secondary symptom onset always lagged primary patient onset (other studies show more variability here)

As you say, 16% attack rate is surprising. The 105 initial patients were all hospitalized, so the study is clearly retrospective. It's possible PCR testing missed some infected household members who had already recovered, but hard to see that substantially moving the needle. Some patients went to the hospital soon after onset and were not contagious in the home for that long, but again a minor effect.

 

[madodel]

Seychelles, Guam, Bermuda... Hard to find anywhere "safe"...

But they are easier to make safe. I'm in PA along the border with Jersey. We were an early hotspot in PA which has now passed. But unless they close the bridges to Jersey any second wave in NY and NJ is going to hit us again. Realtors here are using this crisis to sell primary and second homes to NY and NJ residents as they did after 9/11. And we already have a large percentage of workers who live here and commute to NYC. An island can control who comes in.

 

[madodel]

Weird: Guy Injected With Bill Gates’ New Vaccine Suddenly Thinks Internet Explorer Is The Greatest

So vaccines may explain why so many people use Windows. Interesting.

 

[madodel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...241454-913f-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html




Hmm, he got infected in spite of being tested...



What? This must be fake news.... EDIT: Uhh, no, he actually said it. How does he know? I mean, he surely must know that if he says it.

Where is the "Sigh" reaction?

 

[DanCar]

Nearly one-third of Americans believe a coronavirus vaccine exists and is being withheld, survey finds

What if we made the promising but unproven vaccines , more widely available?

 

[FoverM]

I have to throw the DQ flag (Drama Queen) on this writer and penalize him 15 yards:

I Just Flew. It Was Worse Than I Thought It Would Be.

Are people really this stupid?

My wife flew to TX recently to help her mom recuperate after surgery. Her flight had around 30 people on it and everyone wore a mask. No food or drinks served. Otherwise, you check your bags, get on the plane, fly to the destination, and then get off and collect your bags. That's it.

PS. TX is not joking when they say they'll check on you to see if you're honoring the 14-day quarantine. A State Trooper showed up at her mom's house one day to verify my wife was there.

 

[madodel]

Had to go to the ER yesterday. ER was empty, which I expected since the hospital non-covid patients has been almost non-existant for weeks. The one person ahead of me was a COVID frequent flyer. He just got out of a different hospital last week and was now in this ER for SOB. I have no idea if they tweaked his O2 and sent him home or admitted him, but I wonder how they count repeat COVID admissions.