Coronavirus

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It is because El Orango and Fox News had falling out.

Fox has to look after its viewers. They're in the at-risk group.

 

[jhm]

Yesterday the Smart-Ass Model was predicting 2.5M ultimate cases and 153k ultimate deaths. Today this has pulled back a little to 2.24M ultimate cases and 137k ultimate deaths.

Some thoughts on interpreting projections from this model. Obviously, these ultimate projections are going to bounce around quite a bit from day to data. The aim with this projections is track performance in real time. If the projections decrease, that suggests that epidemic may be turning more favorable. If the projections increase, that would suggest that the epidemic may be turning for the worse. In the Smart-Ass Model I use the last 28 days for the fit. So with each roll forward, the model picks up a pair of observations and loses a pair. Both pairs can influence the shift in fit and projections. Each day of the week gets 4 observations, so that weekly behavior can be balanced out. Still some weekly oscillations can persist. In a way, the variability in projections from day to day can give us some feel for real uncertainty, which is likely much greater than the variability of projections. Each day is a wrestling match with this virus. How we collectively battle this epidemic will determine how bad it can get. Will we have second and third waves? Only if we collectively allow it. This simplistic model has no great insight in to how effective we will be in halting this epidemic. This model cannot predict what poor choices the president or governors will make or the consequences yet to show up in daily cases and deaths. This model can't tell us if people will become more effective with social distancing or more careless. But it can tell us how we have been trending over the last 28 days. It is our choice as a people if we will take steps to improve these projections.

What the last 28 days tell us is that we are trending toward 2.24M cases and 137k deaths.
View attachment 539422

View attachment 539423

View attachment 539424

Smart-Ass Model is continuing to moderate its ultimate projections. Cases are down to 2.08M and deaths down to 128k. We'll see how much this is just weekday cycling.

One advantage of the smart-ass model over the dumb-ass model is that the weekly cycle of deaths and case are in different phases. So maybe integrating the two can reduce some of this effect. You can see this cycling both in the observations and fits in the charts below.

 

[dfwatt]

Fox has to look after its viewers. They're in the at-risk group.

Let's not turn Fox News into any version of a humanitarian Elder set advocacy group. I think it actually is a scary Benchmark of Trump's record setting incompetence that he was saying things that were so grotesquely unrealistic that even Fox News could not defend him on all points. However they're still heavily aligned with a covid-19 denial, conspiracy theory dissemination, and misinformation.

After all, everybody knows that covid-19 was created in a joint Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama-Chinese biological weapons lab, and that our commander-in-chief is engaged in a war with the Deep State, which is trying to protect child pronography run out of the same operation by the same usual culprits. Fake news about covid-19 is being created by the same deep State corrupt actors that are promoting the myth of climate change. It's an interlinked Global conspiracy. As Trump would say "Everybody's talking about this, everybody knows this!"

 

[jhm]

Now reading that llama semen, if taken in extremely high doses, cures almost 100% of cases.

Edit: Smoking afterwards has been shown to have additional positive effects.

Maybe just snuggle.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I predict some angry tweets this weekend.

Called it. (Not a hard call.).

Elon Musk on Twitter

I need to run the numbers again on disease burden in Shanghai at the time of reopening. Anyone have all these details? Their experience in Shanghai is being used (strangely?) as rationale for why they should be allowed to reopen. Are these similar situations, is the question?

My guess is disease burden at proposed reopening time is probably a couple orders of magnitude higher in Alameda County vs. Shanghai - but this is a guess, and we need the data.

 

[N5329K]

Smart-Ass Model is continuing to moderate its ultimate projections. Cases are down to 2.08M and deaths down to 128k. We'll see how much this is just weekday cycling.

One advantage of the smart-ass model over the dumb-ass model is that the weekly cycle of deaths and case are in different phases. So maybe integrating the two can reduce some of this effect. You can see this cycling both in the observations and fits in the charts below.

View attachment 540098

View attachment 540099

View attachment 540100

View attachment 540101

Wouldn’t it be more accurate to call the model results “first wave cases” and “first wave deaths”?

Robin

 

[dhanson865]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Tesla is filing a lawsuit against Alameda County immediately. The unelected & ignorant “Interim Health Officer” of Alameda is acting contrary to the Governor, the President, our Constitutional freedoms & just plain common sense!

Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependen on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA.

Elon Musk on Twitter

San Joaquin County, right next door to Alameda, has been sensible & reasonable, whereas Alameda has been irrational & detached from reality. Our castings foundry and other faculties in San Joaquin have been working 24/7 this entire time with no ill effects. Same with Giga Nevada.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Norbert]

Why do you bother reading the trump moron ?

This was another level. It is getting worse.

 

[EVCollies]

Knox County locks out Knox News science reporter from coronavirus media update

they say "unprofessional behavior directed toward the Health Department and his inaccurate reporting that has been constantly riddled with half-truths, missing facts and and a constant false narrative." is the reason they barred him.

examples of his questions are:

And the medical director of our county health department suddenly announced his retirement after emails surfaced disagreeing with the Weld County Commissioners decision to ignore the Colorado Governors advice. Who ever said politicians can't practice medicine?

Weld County Warned JBS About Its ‘Work While Sick’ Culture A Week Before Shutting Them Down
Weld County’s top public health official warned commissioners against full reopening, documents show
Weld County health department leader Mark Wallace to retire at the end of May | Greeley Tribune

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"Seoul frets about new Covid wave
A potential second wave of coronavirus infections could be possible in South Korea after confirmed cases suddenly increased after a lull, with a surge tied to nightclubs in Seoul...

"China admits 'shortcomings'
As worldwide cases passed 3.9 million and deaths topped 275,000 on Saturday, a top Chinese official admitted the coronavirus outbreak had exposed “shortcomings” in the public healthcare system...

"Fever checks on Air France
Air France will check passengers’ temperatures and could bar anyone from boarding its flights if it is deemed too high when France’s lockdown measures are eased on Monday...

"EU tourism vouchers mooted
European Union states should guarantee vouchers for travel cancelled during the pandemic and start lifting internal border restrictions in a bid to salvage some of the summer tourism season, the bloc’s executive will say next week...

"Australian reopening patchy
Australia’s most populous states held back from relaxing restrictions on Saturday although other states began allowing small gatherings and were preparing to open restaurants and shops...

Seoul frets about new Covid wave

 

[jhm]

What if we made the promising but unproven vaccines , more widely available?

The most widely available, promising, but unproven vaccine is called "herd immunity."

 

[Papafox]

Regarding the question if summer temperatures will stop COVID-19:

Although the really big hot spots are in the North West of the US, within California most new deaths are from Los Angeles, also Orange County and San Diego. That's all southern CA.

To which I would respond that Hawaii had zero new cases yesterday and COVID19 appears to have been totally eliminated on the island of Kauai. We all know about the marine layer of low clouds that often sits over parts of Southern California. It is the effects of the sun and warmer temperatures that make the difference. When I visited San Diego regularly on work, I looked forward to it in summer because it was cooler than other locations. Look to Hawaii, not Southern California to see the effects of sun and warm temperatures.

 

[Papafox]

FDA Approves Antigen Test with Fast Results

According to the article:
"There will never be the ability on a nucleic acid test to do 300 million tests a day or to test everybody before they go to work or to school, but there might be with the antigen test," Birx told reporters last month.

 

[jhm]

Here's a graph of the 7-day averages of GA daily positives and tests:

View attachment 540036

There has been a huge increase in testing but relatively flat positives. In a week or two I expect the positives will increase somewhat. Because of the reopening of the state? Nope, because Gov Kemp recently opened up testing to everyone.

It's difficult to get information on these numbers. Are these swabs showing an active infection or are they antibody tests showing past infection??? Or does everything get piled into one number?

I like this chart. This should help people understand that more testing need not lead to more confirmed cases. I feel more comfortable moving about in the state, knowing that there are fewer unconfirmed cases. And we can only know this if the test are widely available and used in high numbers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I need to run the numbers again on disease burden in Shanghai at the time of reopening. Anyone have all these details? Their experience in Shanghai is being used (strangely?) as rationale for why they should be allowed to reopen. Are these similar situations, is the question?

Elon Musk on Twitter

So, let's look at that claim. From the Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30746-7/fulltext

"Given the intensive, proactive case finding and the sharp drop in reported cases outside Hubei during February, 2020, the ascertainment rates in these cities were probably very high."

"As of Feb 29, 2020, there were 411 (Beijing), 337 (Shanghai), 417 (Shenzhen), and 504 (Wenzhou) laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections reported."

In spite of this, I'll assume they are missing 90% of the cases, though (not possible if they are not having an out of control outbreak BTW). Just for good measure. (For the record, they have had 7 reported deaths to date in Shanghai, which would produce an estimation of about 700 cases to date.) My assumption is suggesting they have had more like 6000 cases (they have had 657 confirmed cases reported to date), so I am very likely overestimating by at least a factor of 5! Greater China: coronavirus statistics by region | Statista

The Shanghai Gigafactory reopened on February 10th. Coronavirus: Tesla Giga Shanghai reopening on Feb 10, Shanghai govt offers help - Electrek

I count 42 cases in Shanghai (not including from international travel) after February 10th. So using 10x, assume 420 cases after reopening. Max. Daily rate appears to be at most about 1-2 per day on average (convert to 20 per day using 10x factor)

Shanghai population: 24.3 million

Cases per capita, Shanghai, total, after reopening: 420/24.3e6 = 17.3 ppm

Cases per capita per day after reopening, Shanghai: 2 cases per/day /24.3 million: 0.08 ppm per day

Again, likely overestimating the disease burden by a lot here (I would guess about 5x, so more reasonable might be 0.016ppm per day)!

Alameda County, I will assume is undercounting by a factor of 5x, rather than 10x (seems maybe reasonable given the number of deaths - they have had 71 deaths, which would suggest about 10k cases, since only maybe 7k would have resulted in death yet):
http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx

So that would give 5*2023 cases = 10115 cases. Population: 1.67 million

Cases per capita, Alameda County, prior to reopening: 10115/1.67e6 = 0.61%, or 6056 ppm

(This is probably a pretty good estimate, no overcount/undercount.)

If you want to use just the zip code of the Gigafactory (unreasonable), you get:

Cases per capita, 94538: 40*10/65954 = 0.6% (Same answer - it is pretty much the average of the county.)

Going forward, let's assume we are currently at the 50 new cases per day -> Let's assume they are doing a better job of testing now than in the past, though, and are only missing half the cases (2x undercount). So translate to 100 cases per day for the 2x undercount:

Cases per capita, Alameda County, per day, as of today: 100/1.67e6 = 60ppm per day

Again, this is probably a very reasonable estimation of the rate, given the number of deaths.

Summary of veracity of Elon's claim:

Shanghai disease burden: 0.08ppm per day, average, after February 10th (now pretty much zero...)
Alameda County disease burden: 60 ppm per day as of May 9th

Difference: 750x the disease burden in Alameda county, and if you assume a 5x overcount in Shanghai, it is closer to 3750x.

Conclusion: I am not sure that the Shanghai experience will translate well to the Alameda County situation - it seems like they should wait until disease burden is at least a factor of 5 lower, and even then, implement additional controls (testing!).

To put it another way, on any given day, assuming 10k workers in both Shanghai and Fremont:
In Shanghai, there are about 0.0008 workers per day entering the factory with a new case of coronavirus. (Probably much lower number now though, since there appear to be zero cases except at the airport.)

In Fremont, there would be about 0.6 workers per day entering the factory with a shiny new case of the 'rona.

If they were to open up next week, I would expect them to be able to go no more than about 2 weeks without having an outbreak (accounting for some risk reduction due to screening, etc.). Could relatively easily be less than a week.

EDIT: While doing my per day numbers, I somehow managed to get Alameda County off by a factor of 100! It's way worse than what I said originally...

Would love someone to check the numbers to make sure I didn't make a mistake. Really will be useful for predicting future stock price trends (if/when factory reopens), is my guess. So I definitely want to have the right order of magnitude.

 

[jhm]

Wouldn’t it be more accurate to call the model results “first wave cases” and “first wave deaths”?

Robin

Sure, I've said as much in the past. I also express the caveat that it cannot predict changes in policy or human behaviors. A second wave would likely be set off by such changes, notably a premature opening of the economy.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

there will never be the ability on a nucleic acid test to do 300 million tests a day

Why on earth would she suggest we would ever need to do that many tests??? Seems very strange to make those the goalposts. To be safe, we need about 3-5 million PCR tests per day, right now (could be higher or lower in future depending on the future disease burden). 500k PCR tests per day would be a good starting point, right now. Get to 1 million per day ASAP.

I like this chart. This should help people understand that more testing need not lead to more confirmed cases.

No, it does not have to mean an increase - that is not exactly what I said. But this particular chart suggests that the number of cases is going down significantly - that is relevant to your model, in terms of future death trends - I would expect a fairly steep decline in deaths per day numbers - rather than a plateau that would be suggested by the plateau in case numbers.

 

[Norbert]

To which I would respond that Hawaii had zero new cases yesterday and COVID19 appears to have been totally eliminated on the island of Kauai. We all know about the marine layer of low clouds that often sits over parts of Southern California. It is the effects of the sun and warmer temperatures that make the difference. When I visited San Diego regularly on work, I looked forward to it in summer because it was cooler than other locations. Look to Hawaii, not Southern California to see the effects of sun and warm temperatures.

I haven't been in San Diego very often, only in summer, and wasn't aware of its average temperatures.

However if both Los Angeles and Miami-Dade are doing worse than San Francisco, that says something which is not undone by Hawaii: that temperature alone is not a protection.

 

[SMAlset]

Called it. (Not a hard call.).

Elon Musk on Twitter

I need to run the numbers again on disease burden in Shanghai at the time of reopening. Anyone have all these details? Their experience in Shanghai is being used (strangely?) as rationale for why they should be allowed to reopen. Are these similar situations, is the question?

My guess is disease burden at proposed reopening time is probably a couple orders of magnitude higher in Alameda County vs. Shanghai - but this is a guess, and we need the data.

Were the Shanghai factory workers living at the plant kind of on lockdown? I can see where places like FoxCon “villages” where people move from their homes and live in company town apartments until their work assignment period is over when they can go back to their villages would offer more control over spread. It’s kind of what Wuhan did by closing off the city and essentially locking people in their apartments with people patrolling outside so you didn’t leave. If you did you were remanded back to your place. Somehow I don’t see that kind of work/live situation working for Fremont just based on people revolting about the current closure.

I’m curious how many people at all three plant locations tested positive.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Were the Shanghai factory workers living at the plant kind of on lockdown?

No idea, but I doubt it. If you see my summary above, it doesn't seem like it was necessary to do this, due to the disease burden being so low in Shanghai - there was arguably always extremely low risk. (Pence could have gone on TV in Shanghai, and said, correctly for a change, "The risk to the Shanghainese people remains low.").

I actually think they probably could have not shut down the plant in Shanghai at all and gotten away with it, but better safe than sorry as far as the Shanghai authorities were concerned, with their brief shutdown and reduced mobility plan. Their measures were very very effective!

Fremont, however - they pretty much would have to go with the "bubble" approach or what I have suggested in detail a week ago or so in this thread. Tons of support to maintain strict isolation for all employees & families, if they are living at home. And no public transit use allowed. Rather than an actual bubble, it would be a "virtual private bubble." (Actually implementing this and getting compliance is probably impossible...)