Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

Data source: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Nowcasting und R-Schätzung: Schätzung der aktuellen Entwicklung der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie in Deutschland

 

[Norbert]

I don't think it matters, since my point remains that no single expert-consensus existed at the time of Elon's qualified prediction ("If current trends continue..."). But the gist of the article I read was that humanity is screwed no matter what we do, and the expert quoted was somebody famous, like "the father of epidemiology" or something like that. This was early in the days of toilet-paper-rioting panic.

It matters in so far as that is a persistent, but incorrect rumor. (Unless there is another expert who I haven't heard of.)

It's being spread by people who want to create the impression that we have been misguided by alarmists.

 

[PeterJA]

It matters in so far as that is a persistent, but incorrect rumor. (Unless there is another expert who I haven't heard of.)

It's being spread by people who want to create the impression that we have been misguided by alarmists.

I have no evidence that we've been deliberately misguided by anyone (except by forces leading the suppression of news that China conquered Covid-19 using vitamin C and heparin), but you are ignoring the articles I just quoted. The variance of expert predictions is not an "incorrect rumor," according to Bloomberg, WSJ and others you can find with a quick search.
Coronavirus

 

[RobStark]

I don't know about zinc, but raw copper takes about four hours to kill the bacteria on it's surface. This is why we have a Rachiele copper sink. It's more sanitary.

I have a Rachiele too, about 11 years.

Last time your post about Rachiele got zapped about 5 minutes after you posted.

This place is turning into a Cyberjungle!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

EDIT: or ~25K = ~1.5% IFR)

Yeah sorry. As I was on my bike ride today I realized I had used the wrong number. Whew! Only 1.5%! Just like a bad flu, bro.

 

[Norbert]

I have no evidence that we've been deliberately misguided by anyone (except by forces leading the suppression of news that China conquered Covid-19 using vitamin C and heparin), but you are ignoring the articles I just quoted. The variance of expert predictions is not an "incorrect rumor," according to Bloomberg, WSJ and others you can find with a quick search.
Coronavirus

There is a variance, just not as large. Especially now that IHME has corrected itself upwards (137K with currently expected mitigation).

 

[PeterJA]

There is a variance, just not as large. Especially now that IHME has corrected itself upwards (137K with currently expected mitigation).

As large as what? The May 5 article I quoted says: "The near doubling of coronavirus death predictions in a closely followed model this week..." Near-doubling seems like pretty large variance.

And we were talking about predictions at the time of Elon's, not now.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

First of all, growing fear is not growing evidence

You do you realize that I acknowledged that in the very beginning of my post right? That your post was essentially rehashing what I said. There isn't anything you said that was different than what I said except for language used. That the easiest explanation is that it's under counting, and I acknowledged that. It isn't too surprising since the test itself is prone to false negatives.

So I definitely agree with you.

But, I don't think we can so quickly dismiss the very real possibility that people are dying either as a result of fear of the hospital or something about the Covid-19 lockdown has impacted their routine.

It's being widely reported that hospital visits are down for serial illnesses. Like here is another one.

Cambridge cardiologist says 'stay home' message not appropriate for those suffering from serious illness

As an anecdotal example my mom lives in a retirement community where half of it is assisted living, and half of it isn't. She's used to people dying on a fairly regular basis. It's pretty often that an ambulance is called a few times a week. Usually people survive, but sometimes they don't.

They've had the place locked down since early April (or late March), and most everyone stays in their rooms except to do things like laundry. They have no acknowledged cases of Covid-19, and they've been sending me regular updates. So you'd think it would be pretty safe, but people there are dying at a much higher rate than normal. Now maybe it's just a weird blip that's unique to where she is.

It's a very different reality than what it typically is. They're typically active where they're hanging out with each other, and eating dinner with each other. It's not too uncommon to have someone telling the other person they should go to the hospital for something. Half of them have memory issues even though it's not a memory care place. They accept them because it's money coming in the door.

Covid-19 has thrown a huge wrench into the community aspect of places like that. Not only that, but the isolation must be taking a toll.

I simply don't see it not having at least some impact on deaths. At this point I simply don't know how much of a contributor it is to unexplained deaths, but hopefully in the coming weeks more data will come out. So we can re-think the degree of isolation we're putting them in.

 

[Norbert]

You do you realize that I acknowledged that in my post right? That your post was essentially rehashing what I said.

There isn't anything you said that was different than what I said except for language used. That the easiest explanation is that it's under counting. Which isn't too surprising since the test itself is prone to false negatives.

Oh, ok, I didn't realize you _fully_ ackowledged that, went as far as that.

 

[Norbert]

As large as what? The May 5 article I quoted says: "The near doubling of coronavirus death predictions in a closely followed model this week..." Near-doubling seems like pretty large variance.

And we were talking about predictions at the time of Elon's, not now.

Yes, definitely 2x and more. That variation already existed within the first WH task force presentations (which, by the way, were very clear on the "millions" being a worst case no-mitigation scenario).

EDIT: But I don't remember any with zero at the end of April.

That "closely followed model" is the IHME model I just mentioned. Several weeks ago it went as low as about 62K. Many of us (for example in this thread) always thought it was too optimistic. I even found Fauci way too optimistic when he talked about 80K in the first WH presentations of those predictions. Or that was Birk's description of his position, not sure if he mentioned that number himself. At those times it already seemed clear that those numbers must be the lower end of the spectrum, or past it. We just weren't very sure yet.

Some early calculations based on the China numbers seemed to make strange errors. There was always a tendency by some to look for the lowest possible (or impossible) interpretation.

 

[Intl Professor]

I seldom lurk here so apologies if already noticed here. A really simple plan for reopening comes from Israel:

Opinion | 10-4: How to Reopen the Economy by Exploiting the Coronavirus’s Weak Spot

The last paragraph: "The coronavirus epidemic is a formidable foe, but it is not unbeatable. By scheduling our activities intelligently, in a way that accounts for the virus’s intrinsic dynamics, we can defeat it more rapidly, and accelerate a full return to work, school and other activities."

 

[AZRI11]

Poverty is the biggest killer. All choices are bad, pick the least bad choice. Wear masks and open up the economy. An estimated half a billion people worldwide (on top of those who are already impoverished) are falling into poverty because of shutdowns. Coronavirus could turn back the clock 30 years on global poverty

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

All choices are bad, pick the least bad choice.

Yes, that would be to TTIQS. (And wear masks, of course!)

They found some cases in Wuhan (6). They plan to test the city of 11 million people in 10 days. (We’ll see how many tests that means...from what I understand, they plan to do 1 million tests per day in the city.) That is how you get started. I think they will be able to keep the city running while eliminating the outbreak, but we will see.

Time to get started here. Let’s get to it, America. F*** yeah.

It seems fairly apparent that that is how the outbreak will end here, too. Just do tens of millions of tests a day - it’s super easy and extremely cheap! It’s a shame it seems to be taking so long for people to figure that out. (I think everybody already knows that is the solution, but for some reason there is resistance.)

 

[jerry33]

Is that one of the reasons why copper was used in water lines in houses?

I rather think that copper is not a poisonous as lead, is relatively inexpensive, and it's ductile enough to make it easy to bend. I don't think that the anti-bacterial aspect was considered back when copper was started to be used. I'm also not sure that copper pipes do much because the bacteria/virus has to be in contact with the copper, not suspended in water.

 

[byeLT4]

My county had another death over the weekend, a man in his 70s. So with 92k total people we currently have 152 positive tests and 6 deaths. Last week we averaged 2 new cases during the weekdays and 0 over the weekend IIRC.

My 70 y/o neighbor who was in ICU for a month and a vent for 11 days is losing her toes from what I understand. I don't try and pry but keep up with her daughter's posts on FB and that was the latest info from a few days ago. She was an active lady that caught the virus at a rehab facility where she works. Since the end of March she's been fighting......

 

[lascavarian]

Data source: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Nowcasting und R-Schätzung: Schätzung der aktuellen Entwicklung der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie in Deutschland

Great graph for discussion.

I would wonder if the kick upward is an artifact of enhanced track & trace activity in which case it could be increased visibility into viral activity.

OTOH, this could be a reveal of a failure of the reopen plans.

A good start would be what question do we ask to determine which way to evaluate this data.

 

[GFernandes]

Sure. I expect most are COVID-19 related. But a certain % are people who died of heart attacks, etc, but may not have died under normal circumstances.

Furthermore, this analysis does not subtract the reduced deaths due to fewer workplace accidents, traffic accidents, etc. That's been discussed here before.

On balance, I'm guessing that this number will end up being about the real number of additional COVID-19 deaths (after subtracting the heart attack deaths "caused" by lack of access to care, and adding the deaths which are making up for reduced other causes of mortality).

Anyway, at some point there will be an analysis. But it seems extremely safe to say we are undercounting COVID-19 deaths by a lot! That's completely normal, and happens with all infectious diseases as far as I can tell.

Unrelated, I'm beginning to worry about those serology tests in NYC. Why don't they just do a proper analysis and tell us the prevalence? I'm beginning to think it may be less than 20% in reality! Even at 20%, that would be bad! We'd be looking at an IFR of about 1.9% (32k/(0.2*8.4e6) = 1.9%! And we still have something like 1500 people in ICU beds in NYC, don't we (I can't find the exact numbers, as usual)?

It's all very grim.

So the only way to actually compare is to see total mortality and compare it to an influenza peak no? We just ignore deaths by lockdown and deaths by CV not being counted and see all deaths:

Lets say USA:
2017 2018:
Week 52: 61k deaths
Week 1 : 66k deaths
Week 2: 67k deaths
Week 3: 64k deaths
Week 4: 62k deaths
Week 5: 60.9k deaths
Week 6 61k deaths

2019-2020
Week 10: 56k
Week 11: 53k
Week 12: 54k
Week 13: 58k
Week 14: 65k
Week 15: 69k
Week 16: 63k ( will prob still get an update )

We can also take a look at Euromomo for 2014/2015:
Seasonal influenza - Annual Epidemiological Report for 2014-15 season
And compare it to now:
https://www.euromomo.eu/

The answer is no, the mortality is not significant when comparing to bad influenza outbreaks.

I wont go back to IFR talks since this forum only answers:" IFR tests are all wrong except the ones saying 1% IFR or more. " "Oh , and we say IFR of influenza is 0,1% no matter what, even in bad outbreaks, its not an average! ".

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"We are starting to do operations that were necessary but deferred. It won’t be the same, but it shouldn’t be the same. We have to be fanatics about cleanliness, diligent about spacing patients. We cannot go back to normal, we need to learn and grow from our experiences so far."

 

[GFernandes]

That crazy total Mortality in the USA and UK:

 

[jerry33]

That crazy total Mortality in the USA and UK:
View attachment 541059 View attachment 541060

Are you sure that's not just TSLA?