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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
linux-works
Active Member
man, I've been reading too much on particle physics; that curve sure looks like the probability wave of an electron.
it seems electrons can most often be found between april and may!
(I know; this subject is a bit bohring to some...)
18 US states have increasing # of cases, but there might not be much of political appetite for forced closures once again.
Also, experts keep saying possibility of 2nd wave and most likely in Sept(i.e. Fall) - this is another way of saying V does not spread as quickly in hot/humid/sun filled Environments.
Also, experts keep saying possibility of 2nd wave and most likely in Sept(i.e. Fall) - this is another way of saying V does not spread as quickly in hot/humid/sun filled Environments.
That is great to know and I appreciate your informative reply.
I am just adding a bit of context to this jungle of moral decisions and interests. For example, hospitals have flexible resources. They are constantly turning over beds. They can reconfigure resources and allocate staff and services to respond to flexible needs like disasters etc.
Nursing homes have almost no flexibility. If there is a naturual disaster like a flood, they are often evacuated. Not so with this. The good ones are full almost all the time and they are purpose designed and built. They rely (to an extent) on other resources in the community to give them flexibility. They tend to move patients rather than reconfigure resources.
We are in an enduring situation where convalescent care resources need flexibility but have none because of stigma etc. It is a horrible situation of conflicted interests and moral dilemmas. It is (a bit sadly) and informative place to see in a concentrated form the conflict of the needs of the one vs the needs of the many.
Source: I grew up in a small nursing home run by my family. We lived in the same building as the patients 24/7. I was able to see at a very young age the circle of interests that the process of convalescence and dying involves particularly in an area ravaged by poverty. I don't really recommend it but the world would be a kinder place if every young family were to spend a month experiencing what is reality when the end comes.
Sun doesn't seem to be stopping it in South America right now.
My wife, who's a Cardiologist, spent 7 weeks with almost no work other than seeing COVID-19 patients whose hearts were messed up by COVID-19. People just died at home or suffered with their cardiac problems because they were terrified of going to the ER. This is not the flu or a bad cold. It will destroy organs in people who get a severe case, even if they survive the pneumonia issues. I haven't heard the term DIC in 3 decades, but this virus has brought it back. God that is a horrible way to die. And we still don't seem to have a reliable testing protocol. My wife tells me her hospital wants all employees to be tested (at their own expense) for antibodies and she has no idea what that proves at this point since the existing tests are so unreliable and there is still no study showing that there is some lasting level of immunity if you have the antibodies. I think they just want to prepare for the second wave and be able to have virus and virus free areas of the hospital, but good luck with that right now.
And now when she sees all these imbeciles out partying without any precautions her comment is it will all happen all over again. The people in the Republican states don't have a clue what is about to hit them. And it is going to circle back here and screw all of us all over again. Our local hospital had nothing but financial losses for almost 2 months while it couldn't do any elective surgeries, procedures and tests. I fear they won't survive this happening again. I hope people continue/start to take this seriously or the second wave will kill a hell of a lot more than the first.
Sun/UV light helps transmission from surfaces, play grounds etc, but it will not help person to person transmission at close range where Virus transmits immediately after release from infected.
Can't think of another reason why experts are saying 2nd wave in Fall season ...
How about timing of reinfection? How about after running rampant in the midWest it takes a couple months to circle back to the coasts? How about people stop thinking about what can happen and stop doing anything to slow the transmission of the virus? I hope you are right about things quieting down over the Summer, but this disease has surprised all the experts so many times that nothing about it is simple.
CDC now says transmission "by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads."
CDC updates COVID-19 transmission webpage to clarify information about types of spread | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC
COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020
point is, because Covid19 is overwhelming an indoor (including vehicular) transmission disease, indoor ventilation is critical. The above was an actual restaurant in China, A1 (yellow) infected 9 others (red circles) during a meal. Yet none of the other tables were infected.
This is a pretty basic room, yet even so, how to optimise its operation to minimise risk of covid19 transmission.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I've seen that exact same seating chart with the same symptom onset dates but the airflow shown in the opposite direction!
It doesn't spread as easily outdoors, and people spend a lot more time outdoors in summer.
Experts are also looking at school resumption in the fall, though we don't know for sure how much of a factor schools are.
From the article:
1637456 cases
97669 deaths
97669/(1637456*5)*100 =~1.2% IFR according to this scientist' estimates.
This article makes good points but forgets that we did not have PPE, test kits, thought we needed more ventilators and hospital beds and thought that it was much more deadly.
Now we know why Fremont Tesla is redesigning their air handling for the factory even though it's not on CDC radar yet.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This reminds me of the conversation I had with a neighbor this weekend. He's a physician (hospitalist) at the local adult hospital here. He reports that the hospital is pretty much empty, except for critically ill non-COVID-19 patients and the few COVID-19 patients.
His take (not mine), is that this has been a double-edged sword. He's happy to not see all the truly un-necessary patients that use the frequent the hospital for the most minor of problems (frequent flyers we call them), and these types were increasing over the past 5-10 years and truly using unnecessary resources. Sadly, he's also fairly certain that there are people suffering at home that could be receiving medical care.
BTW, when I said horrible way to die, I didn't mean for the person. I only worked as a critical care nurse for 5 years in the 80's but of the few things I remember was the first time I had a patient with AIDs die with DIC. By that point they were in multi-organ failure, on a vent and not aware of anything. I just remember being stunned by watching all the clotted blood pouring out of them and there wasn't anything I could do. I'm sure with COVID-19 it is very rare but that is one of the frightening things I recall from those days. I have also heard of someone losing a limb do to clots related to COVID-19. COVID-19 is giving me flashbacks to all of that.
Next time you seem him ask him do define 'truly un-necessary' patient visit. I bet most of truly unnecessary visits are truly unnecessary after the fact.
Not unique to Republican states. Maybe they have more people that aren’t taking this seriously, but CA also has a large population that believe this situation is overblown. My NextDoor has a good collection of these deniers.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Not so much. People these days refuse to get PCPs/Family Docs. So they use the ER for just about everything.
That is great for hospital revenue, but craptacular for patient care and general well-being.
When I practiced I even saw people that would show up to the ER for their kids annual well-child checks, so they could get their kids signed off on vaccines and go to school. 100% not what the ER is for.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's precisely how the system is designed to operate. Maybe complain about the administrators and corporate investors rather than poor people getting "truly shitty" healthcare.
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