Coronavirus

[madodel]

You are not reading the article. The point is that if we limit ourselves to optimize for health and life lockdown also kills and damages people. That damage is extensive. To claim that profit vs. life is dogmatic.

I did read it. I'm very familiar with the arguments they make. I hear similar everyday here in Pennsylvania. I find it odd that these people always claim they can open up their state following CDC guidelines when CDC guidelines clearly give opening parameters that most states currently can't meet. They are the ones using fear to counter public health. Here it is entirely about politics and profits and as the link I posted shows it is the same elsewhere. I've said this before, the stay at home orders stress people, but a million deaths would be even more stressful.

Edit: Since I rushed to finish the reply because I keep getting a "503" from this site, I left out that our Governor not only has a plan to reopen, he is actually doing it. The only thing threatening the opening are the groups of idiots with snake flags and Trump banners congregating in groups and not wearing masks, protesting for something that is actually happening. These are just political rallies by folks who lost the war 155 years ago. I'm tired of the lunacy and the threat they are to actually opening things up.

Edit 2: And despite the endless cries of tyranny and "Freedumb" our Pennsylvania State Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of our Governor's Stay At Home orders based on our Commonwealth's Constitution and our Governor has a 64% approval vs about 40% for Trump.

 

[FreshPrince]

States and CDC are skewing test to case ratio, to show COVID is slowing down by adding serology negative results to total number of tests performed:

These results damage the public’s ability to understand what is happening in any one state. On a national scale, they call the strength of America’s response to the coronavirus into question. The number of tests conducted nationwide each day has more than doubled in the past month, rising from about 147,000 a month ago to more than 413,000 on Wednesday, according to the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic, which compiles data reported by state and territorial governments. In the past week, the daily number of tests has grown by about 90,000.

At the same time, the portion of tests coming back positive has plummeted, from a seven-day average of 10 percent at the month’s start to 6 percent on Wednesday.

“The numbers have outstripped what I was expecting,” Jha said. “My sense is people are really surprised that we’ve moved as much as we have in such a short time period. I think we all expected a move and we all expected improvement, but the pace and size of that improvement has been a big surprise.”

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Who cares? Our testing is still relative arbitrary and is certainly uncoordinated. Are there really any people out there looking to draw conclusions from completely random denominator AND numerator?

 

[linux-works]

Who cares? Our testing is still relative arbitrary and us certainly uncoordinated. Are there really any people out there looking to draw conclusions from completely random denominator AND numerator?

its like getting the minus sign wrong, in a calculation. it can radically change the result.

so, if you are going to make minus-sign mistakes, the trick is to make an even number of them.

 

[SageBrush]

States and CDC are skewing test to case ratio, to show COVID is slowing down by adding serology negative results to total number of tests performed:
‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

Trending the test positive fraction has always been an exercise in fuzzyiness; this just makes it worse. And since I remain a skeptic of TTQ for 'Murica I don't see the lying as having any real effect on the pandemic. It is political fodder and money wasted.

However, there is still:
positive tests
Hospitalizations that are test positive (the best measure in my opinion, but the data is spotty)
Covid-19 deaths
Excess mortality

The trumpers are playing an interesting short term game by attempting to corrupt the mortality stats and then declare that excess mortality is due to the economy. This is similar to the stock market: short term manipulations are effective but long term the fundamentals prevail. The game is dangerous. Not only because they are sacrificing lives for politics, but they are risking collapse of the healthcare system. When that happens the trumpian lies will be exposed.

 

[dfwatt]

Trending the test positive fraction has always been an exercise in fuzzyiness; this just makes it worse.

However, there is still:
positive tests
Hospitalizations that are test positive (the best measure in my opinion, but the data is spotty)
Covid-19 deaths
Excess mortality

The trumpers are playing an interesting short term game by attempting to corrupt the mortality stats and then declare that excess mortality is due to the economy. This is similar to the stock market: short term manipulations are effective but long term the fundamentals prevail. The game is dangerous. Not only because they are sacrificing lives for politics, but they are risking collapse of the healthcare system. When that happens all the trumpian lies will be exposed.

I thought that too many times in relationship too many lies. But I realized that there is no Bridge Too Far for the Trump base at least the hardest of the hardcore. Trump himself does not believe that there is any bridge too far to protect and preserve his grandiosity and power. That includes explaining away a boatload of death that didn't need to happen. I keep hoping There's A Bridge Too Far somewhere in the morally corroded heart of the Republican Senate but I think I've given up on that too

 

[madodel]

France gives up on hydroxychloroquine. France Bars Use Of Hydroxychloroquine In COVID-19 Cases

 

[dfwatt]

Unfortunately societal factors and lack of leadership from President Trump (and his active undermining of sensible public safety measures) really do make the possibility of eliminating the virus to a low level in this country fairly remote. It'll be sad, because most other countries around the world who have chosen to eliminate the virus will be doing just fine by then, I suspect. It's going to be an excellent opportunity for China to broaden influence in the world with Asia and Australia & elsewhere, since all these countries are going to want to be able to conduct trade/provide services/engage in tourism with someone, and the US won't really be an option.

The position of POTUS really is a highly influential one. It would have an amazing impact if he decided he wanted to solve this problem and get re-elected.

Hate to say this Alan but I think you're giving him far too much credit. He expects and hopes to get reelected but not by solving problems but by being a demagogue, a manipulator, and a provocateur. Problems are Inconvenient Truths that can be explained away or blamed on Hillary or Obama or the Chinese or the Democrats or whoever the latest scapegoat de jour might be. I hate to sound that cynical but I think Trump is really so deeply sociopathic he's incapable of acknowledging that he's made any mistakes of any kind.

 

[SageBrush]

I thought that too many times in relationship too many lies. But I realized that there is no Bridge Too Far for the Trump base at least the hardest of the hardcore. Trump himself does not believe that there is any bridge too far to protect and preserve his grandiosity and power. That includes explaining away a boatload of death that didn't need to happen. I keep hoping There's A Bridge Too Far somewhere in the morally corroded heart of the Republican Senate but I think I've given up on that too

You should listen to trump; some of what he says is spot on and very astute, non-stop lying aside. He said that he could kill in broad daylight and get away with it. He meant it, and he is correct, at least where ~ 30 -- 40% of the electorate is concerned.

The political fight is over "independents," and while they tend to be right-wing they still have their BS meters intact.
As for the Repub senate, they are political animals. They will turn on trump when it is in their best interests.

 

[TespaceX]

The position of POTUS really is a highly influential one. It would have an amazing impact if he decided he wanted to solve this problem and get re-elected.

Sadly, for him to get re-elected, he just needs to focus on pumping the markets more, bringing it back to pre-COVID levels and reopening the economy. He literally could ignore this whole pandemic situation for another 6 months by punting it to governors (who will then punt it to the county epidemiologists). His base doesn’t really care about how many more cases or deaths this country will have as long as they’re back in business and making money. And the markets are moving as such. I mean look at where the Dow and S&P is now. It’s like everyone can forget about the pandemic.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

That very well could be. I'm just amazed that what was an overall very positive post about Elon except for his epidemiology got slammed with so many dislikes. It's like are we so tribal that we can't see any Shades of Grey anymore? God I hope not!

I think you got most of those disagrees not for your opinion, but for re-introducing the corona discussion in the main investor thread. Do keep that infectious subject over here.

And at the same try to keep the Trump posts out of the corona thread. There’s a market politics thread for those.

 

[bkp_duke]

France gives up on hydroxychloroquine. France Bars Use Of Hydroxychloroquine In COVID-19 Cases

Interesting, considering that the French early anecdotal results were where one of the primary driving factors for this drug to be pushed so hard here in the states.

 

[madodel]

I think you got most of those disagrees not for your opinion, but for re-introducing the corona discussion in the main investor thread. Do keep that infectious subject over here.

And at the same try to keep the Trump posts out of the corona thread. There’s a market politics thread for those.

You are in the Netherlands so you may not see it, but at this point everything related to COVID-19 is now politics in the US.

 

[dfwatt]

Sadly, for him to get re-elected, he just needs to focus on pumping the markets more, bringing it back to pre-COVID levels and reopening the economy. He literally could ignore this whole pandemic situation for another 6 months by punting it to governors (who will then punt it to the county epidemiologists). His base doesn’t really care about how many more cases or deaths this country will have as long as they’re back in business and making money. And the markets are moving as such. I mean look at where the Dow and S&P is now. It’s like everyone can forget about the pandemic.

That may be but that is way easier said than done. Esp. given how much collateral damage the shutdown is generating economically, and how many recursions and feedback loops get pulled down. It's going to take a long time for the economy to recover. This didn't need to happen, and better management at the outset would have allowed the United States to have a course more similar to Australia's.

 

[TespaceX]

You are in the Netherlands so you may not see it, but at this point everything related to COVID-19 is now politics in the US.

It’s more pathetic by the day.
Even mask wearing has become a political point to some.

 

[Norbert]

You have not thought through TTQ. Try a daily reading of the kcdc to learn what is involved and ask yourself if the USA has a chance in hell of duplicating it.

Nonsense. All it takes is the political commitment. San Francisco and other places are practicing it to some degree already, and training other counties. Or do you have some issue with what they do?

The chances are better than duplicating South Korea's diligence on wearing masks, or anything similar, for that matter. Although maybe the US does OK on washing hands. In the US, in the current situation, it would be vain to rely on voluntary behavior, if you have the option to do test & trace and give some people a way to earn something in the course of it.

For one recent example of a cluster Korea style, ONE superspreader went to nightclubs in May and has so far lead to ~ 225 test positives despite the best TTQ in the world.

What does that have to do with anything? It was still to early to open night clubs. SK found out the hard way.

 

[byeLT4]

My county's latest numbers:

3 new infections in the last 7 days, all over the long weekend.
92k people, we did 348 tests last week. Not sure who they are testing as there are people commenting that they have fever and/or other mild symptoms and can't get tested. Less than 1% of our tests are positive?... I'm..... I question our numbers........ I'll just put it that way.

Our health department is returning to business as usual. For the last few months it was almost 100% Covid focused and as of the last week they seem to be trying to 'forget'. No more Covid hotline and the latest info from them is about reopening the community, safety boating (for the holiday weekend) and asthma info.

Edit: I think since the last time I posted an update we had another death We are up to 7 now.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

You are in the Netherlands so you may not see it, but at this point everything related to COVID-19 is now politics in the US.

I was referring to the posts on Trump that had no link to corona.

By the way: Google News US edition keeps us well informed about what’s going on in American politics.

 

[Norbert]

The position of POTUS really is a highly influential one. It would have an amazing impact if he decided he wanted to solve this problem and get re-elected.

It would, but I think the President is doubling down on his current non-strategy. Test & trace is finding some support from states, and if (or when) it turns out that re-opening without test & trace won't work well enough, states and counties may further increase their efforts. Unfortunately, they appear hesitant, fortunately, all it takes is the political decision. Depending on the number of new cases, it may be difficult to reach the capacity, but it will help nevertheless, and even 10% coverage would help to bring R0 down.

 

[madodel]

I was referring to the posts on Trump that had no link to corona.

By the way: Google News US edition keeps us well informed about what’s going on in American politics.

OK, but do you have people there politicizing it? My daughter is in Germany and while she and her friends were getting tired of the lockdown there, no one seemed to declare it a hoax or claim it was all to grab power. It's crazy here where people you thought were sane normal folks are now crazy trump supporters denying the reality of what is going on. It embarrasses my daughter to tell her the latest because she knows people will ask her about it there. Hopefully they come up with a working treatment or a reliable safe vaccine soon.