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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
I didn't check, right now I'm staying at home and I'd probably find some police if I were to pass the province.
The worst part is the infodemics/information chaos.
Yesterday night a *draft* of the new restrictions circulated for 6 hourse before it became official.
There was a leak probably from the Lombardy council, the Corriere della Sera published it (the main newspaper of the nation) and people went crazy. People that were in Milan but lived elsewhere flocked to train stations to go home before midnight... These are days in which we live with contraddictory information, in which media go on and on 24/7 about Coronavirus, and fake or incomplete news spread on Whattsapp.
It takes time for people to figure out they *can't* live normally...
The worst part is the infodemics/information chaos.
Yesterday night a *draft* of the new restrictions circulated for 6 hourse before it became official.
There was a leak probably from the Lombardy council, the Corriere della Sera published it (the main newspaper of the nation) and people went crazy. People that were in Milan but lived elsewhere flocked to train stations to go home before midnight... These are days in which we live with contraddictory information, in which media go on and on 24/7 about Coronavirus, and fake or incomplete news spread on Whattsapp.
It takes time for people to figure out they *can't* live normally...
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Might seem silly...but...
Italy has a real problem with this, the UK has hardly any.
In italy people kiss your cheek, shake your hand, hug you when they meet. In the UK, you are lucky if someone gives you a barely perceptible nod while avoiding all eye contact. We are not tactile people. Even married couples barely touch each other on their wedding night.
So I'm not surprised we are doing better in the UK than Italy.
I'm half serious.
Italy has a real problem with this, the UK has hardly any.
In italy people kiss your cheek, shake your hand, hug you when they meet. In the UK, you are lucky if someone gives you a barely perceptible nod while avoiding all eye contact. We are not tactile people. Even married couples barely touch each other on their wedding night.
So I'm not surprised we are doing better in the UK than Italy.
I'm half serious.
If that’s the case, we Finns don’t have any problem
How do you know a finn is an extrovert? When you discuss with him, he looks at your shoes instead of his.
I do think there is some true to this. Unfortunately, the coronavirus was probably in Italy for weeks before they found the first cases. But it would be helpful to see how much the normal flu is spread across countries...
STARR X
Member
Responsible government or responsible corporation? History is littered with corporations not being responsible.
If goverment healthcare helps dealing with this virus as you are alluding too then that would be good for us. It seems like the high risk group is the 70+ and everyone 65 and older is covered by goverment healthcare (Medicare) in the US. Plus, the poor are covered under government healthcare (Medicaid) as well.
N5329K
Active Member
Dark cloud, silver lining?
Plus, the poor are covered under government healthcare (Medicaid) as well.
Only partly true. In my part of the world, many people earn too much for Medicaid and not enough to really survive, much less afford adequate insurance. These are the same folks who are working two or more jobs and cannot commute from home. Ironically, married couples are especially hard hit by Medicaid income restrictions....so much so that some are considering divorce in order to requalify.
it’s why when people refer to our “medical system” I say “What system?”
Robin
Last edited:
I know we have some avid anti-testers here, but South Korea new cases are down 50% week on week due to their policy of testing everyone with any cold symptoms and providing support to those in quarantine. This is the low cost solution.
Otherwise you can wait until the health system gets overrun when ~0.1% of the local population are infected as in Wuhan and Lombardy before initiating strict lock downs and quarantines.
The third options is to do nothing and hope for the best with drugs and vaccines, better weather or evolutionary weakening of the virus.
The main issue with this virus is the hospitalisation rate. Fatality rate and total number of infections are not independent variables.
~20% of cases in China needed oxygen or ventilators and ~50% of cases in Italy have been hospitalised.
I would guess China is closer to the true numbers but still overestimated while Italy has likely missed over half the cases.
We do not know what fatality rate would be once hospitals and equipment are at overcapacity. Fortunately I don't think we will really have to find out because most countries should follow the South Korea, Wuhan or Lombardy route before that happens. If this is the case then globally I think this can be contained to 0.1-0.2% of the world's population infected at the expense of short term economic shutdown and significantly reduced global travel. (Possibly a lot worse in some emerging markets which may be cut off from travel until a vaccine is developed).
Other than oil companies/airlines at risk of bankruptcy, I don't think a short term economic shutdown should have such a huge impact to long term values of companies who are valued on 20-30 years of discounted cash flow.
The bigger risk is governments delaying action and causing real panic and a real recession with longer term repercussions.
Otherwise you can wait until the health system gets overrun when ~0.1% of the local population are infected as in Wuhan and Lombardy before initiating strict lock downs and quarantines.
The third options is to do nothing and hope for the best with drugs and vaccines, better weather or evolutionary weakening of the virus.
The main issue with this virus is the hospitalisation rate. Fatality rate and total number of infections are not independent variables.
~20% of cases in China needed oxygen or ventilators and ~50% of cases in Italy have been hospitalised.
I would guess China is closer to the true numbers but still overestimated while Italy has likely missed over half the cases.
We do not know what fatality rate would be once hospitals and equipment are at overcapacity. Fortunately I don't think we will really have to find out because most countries should follow the South Korea, Wuhan or Lombardy route before that happens. If this is the case then globally I think this can be contained to 0.1-0.2% of the world's population infected at the expense of short term economic shutdown and significantly reduced global travel. (Possibly a lot worse in some emerging markets which may be cut off from travel until a vaccine is developed).
Other than oil companies/airlines at risk of bankruptcy, I don't think a short term economic shutdown should have such a huge impact to long term values of companies who are valued on 20-30 years of discounted cash flow.
The bigger risk is governments delaying action and causing real panic and a real recession with longer term repercussions.
Dr. J
Active Member
i know the flu hit our part of the US pretty hard. Both my kids and most kids in our neighborhood got it. There was a week at school where almost half of my sons class was out with the flu or flu like symptoms. They even closed one of the nearby catholic school for a few days. Most people don’t bother getting tested so probably no way to know how many people got the flu so far this year.
Singer3000
Member
The trouble with a 20-30 year cashflow valuation, is that you don’t get to see the cashflow from years 2-30 if the company defaults in year 1 due to lack of short term Cashflow.
This is a colossal problem in the SME sector globally, and for many much larger companies in emerging markets. Writing off basically half of 2020’s operating cashflow potential will for very many companies prove fatal, even if they are otherwise viable businesses.
Unless that is we see extraordinary support, by which I don’t mean 50bps off rates or QE to buy Treasuries or bank bonds.
The same problem frankly applies to very many households, given numbers of self employed or in the gig economy. If world governments want to avoid a fierce recession and unnecessary defaults, now would be a good time to consider a “people’s QE”, to finance a 3 month rent/mortgage holiday for households and to plug the working capital gap for SMEs. The transmission mechanism for simple QE is just to too slow and clumsy to reach where it’s needed.
Dr. J
Active Member
This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year
"The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus [through Feb. 1, 2020]."
Good news: hand washing helps prevent the spread of flu, too.
Bad news: our health care system will be strained by added demand from those affected by an additional virus.
I agree governments should have much more targeted support for companies and people that really need short term liquidity.
It is possible for capital markets to help too though. There has been a huge amount of cash held on the side lines in distressed debt funds/value funds/PE etc for the past 10 years. Hopefully they don't now hold back when it is most needed and can start providing debt/equity finance to bridge liquidity issues. A huge amount of money was made from these investments in the financial crisis and far more capital has been waiting for the next opportunity.
linux-works
Active Member
a lot of people made a huge amount of money - on the backs of those who also moved *down* a notch or two, economically. this has been the trend in the US over the past decade or more.
if and when the sucrose hits the propellers - it would be high time for those who have net worth with lots of zeroes to the right of some non-zero digit - to pitch in and help *rebuild* all that will end up being broken.
humanity will be put to the test, like its not been tested in any living person's memory. I hope we can step up and take care of each other. there's enough money in this world to do it - it just has to be focused; it never was focused properly, before.
it could be an opportunity to make meaningful changes, too.
lets see if humanity really deserves this earth or not. do we eat each other alive or do we help take care of each other?
[simpsons]no, its not time to crack open our neighbor's skulls and feast on the goo inside[/simpsons]
if and when the sucrose hits the propellers - it would be high time for those who have net worth with lots of zeroes to the right of some non-zero digit - to pitch in and help *rebuild* all that will end up being broken.
humanity will be put to the test, like its not been tested in any living person's memory. I hope we can step up and take care of each other. there's enough money in this world to do it - it just has to be focused; it never was focused properly, before.
it could be an opportunity to make meaningful changes, too.
lets see if humanity really deserves this earth or not. do we eat each other alive or do we help take care of each other?
[simpsons]no, its not time to crack open our neighbor's skulls and feast on the goo inside[/simpsons]
This made me curious. It appears there two ways to measure this - percentage of adults who smoke, and average consumption of cigarettes per capita. Germany lands lower than France and Spain on the former metric, but higher on the latter metric. Here's a graphic of the latter.
linux-works
Active Member
jobs in the bay area are becoming less long-term and more contract-like. employment can be really bouncy. during a part of my career, I was out of work for an extended period of time (agism is a thing, here, too, but that's fodder for another thread) - and its true that if you made 'too much' during the time you were employeed - that you are now excluded from many of the free or nearly free programs that the state provides. when I lost my job during that time, the balance of that year was hell, insurance-wise. but - once the year turned over and I was still not employed (sigh) - then the free insurance kicked in and it was actually *quite good*. it was, in some ways, as good or better than what I was getting from the so-called high end silicon valley companies.
so, if you totally are out of work and made below a certain amount (easy to do if you were unemployed for an extended period) - then your health insurance is actually covered quite well. its the in-between people who are royally screwed.
and right now is *not* the time to go gambling with your health insurance; and in the US, that generally means *your job*.
edit: I am wondering how this pandemic is going to affect hiring; but even more, job seekers. those who were looking to change jobs for 'luxury' reasons (to move up, make more, etc) - maybe they don't want to risk what they have now if what they have now is stable. otoh, what IS stable, these days - anything??
linux-works
Active Member
history is littered with both.
and these days, big is big. big corps or big government - they both have the same problems and they both need checks and balances. neither is inherently superior than the other - both are very easily abused. both have way too much power and both have been, historically shown, to abuse it, if left unchecked.
Because they don't have a Toto Washlet.
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