Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

we are going to see wave 2 shortly.

I also referred to it as a second wave a few posts back, so as not to be pedantic. But to be extremely pedantic, we should really refer to this as the continuation of the first wave, focused in states which previously had relatively small outbreaks.

NY and Eastern hotspots don’t seem to be rising so it’s not a universal pattern.

I've heard it hypothesized that in places with major outbreaks, people don't think it's a big hoax, and tend to be much more careful. They also have not really opened up yet, in many cases.

I think another possibility is that the test & trace and public health infrastructure are fully prepared for more cases in the places where things were bad, and are taking it very seriously - that will lead to better control. However, I have concerns about all of these other places (with previous hotspots) as well. I don't get the sense that they have truly eliminated community transmission, and as long as there are other states pooping in the pool, there are going to continue to be floaters. So if the measures are not sufficient to drive R below 1, we're going to see growth in cases and an increase in fear and reduced economic activity.

Definitely hospitalizations are a good thing to track - unfortunately they're often not presented in the most clear way (really each contributor to the daily number - deaths, admissions, discharges - should all be plotted on the same chart)

We need this data, too:

 

[davepsilon]

I also referred to it as a second wave a few posts back, so as not to be pedantic. But to be extremely pedantic, we should really refer to this as the continuation of the first wave, focused in states which previously had relatively small outbreaks.

I suppose it just depends on your scope. If you use US wide numbers it will look like round 2. If you look at local numbers it will be round 1. I’d be fine saying we need to see double peaks in local numbers to call a wave 2. And this is all based on current trends continuing and no interventions successfully mitigating them. We can still hope.

It is so incredibly maddening to me though because I don’t hold out much hope. Small actions now would have a major positive impact on the future burden. But instead the governments in for instance Arizona insist that an increase in cases was expected due to increased testing. But just increased testing doesn’t result in more people on ventilators.

I fully expect at this point to see Arizona et al blame their new coronavirus troubles on protests and likely implement martial law under that false pretense. The trend break starts too early to line up with protests. Seems to line up better with just general reopening. Disappointed to even think of this as possible

 

[rxlawdude]

Ahh... If you read the Times, they have been lobbying for the cemetery to be built at El Toro. The Times is the best reporting that money can (and usually does) buy. While prostitution is technically illegal in LA, there is an exemption for the Times.

So you're against a respectful resting place for our veterans. Got it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

But instead the governments in for instance Arizona insist that an increase in cases was expected due to increased testing.

The trend break starts too early to line up with protests. Seems to line up better with just general reopening.

Yeah, it's really crazy. If it's true, they need to change their data presentation to make it clear what is happening (I don't think it's true). It's more likely that that's just what someone told him and it's a whole bunch of groupthink going on with no one in a position of power actually looking at the data.

This is AZ's presentation:

The grey bars are tests per week. Been basically flat since May 3rd! June 1st to 7th not complete yet (will presumably end up at ~40k like the rest of the gray bars). The red dots show PCR positivity going from 5% to 6% to 9% to 12% to 13% (so far, for June 1st to 7th). Not the trend you'd be hoping for. Hopefully as the numbers come in from last week, we'll see that positivity stop increasing, but we'll see.

There's no reason they need to shut things down again, but they do need to do something about it, if there are signs of problems.

All the governor says is "be careful" - with nary a mention of wearing masks on Twitter. Reading the replies, I found all the reasons why people are against masks - apparently they can concentrate the virus and SEND IT INTO YOUR BRAIN, and they can cause CO2 poisoning. Folks, we may be in trouble. Is this the new version of American exceptionalism?

 

[RobStark]

Welcome to ballot harvesting and no more vetting of voter rolls. That and Wall Street Funding of DNC target areas.

Orange County remains one of the most conservative counties in California. They actually cleared out the 10,000 bums living in the Santa Ana River. SF could never do that nor could LA.

Equivalent to saying "the most liberal county in Oklahoma." Yes, but not really.

2020 OC is not 1980 OC

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

No more green (used to be Hawaii, Alaska, Oregon, Montana, and one other I think).

America’s COVID warning system.

 

[TespaceX]

On the topic of wearing masks, how can people be expected to wear masks if the people in charge of the country don’t even believe in the importance of wearing one.

 

[madodel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/

Hospitalizations in several states have been rising since at least Memorial Day. I’m going to be watching Arizona and Texas closely. NY and Eastern hotspots don’t seem to be rising so it’s not a universal pattern. But we all known now that the best reactions need to be quick when the cases are still measured in small numbers.

To put it coarsely several states are cocking it up and need just slightly more strict interventions ASAP or we are going to see wave 2 shortly.

I think hospitalizations are one of the better metrics to track during this phase. Maybe a combo of number of tests and percent positive but that needs more massaging. Deaths probably reasonably static bias so useful too but lags more than hospitalizations. Unfortunately number of hospitalizations is not being well tracked with the same rigor as tests.

Our hospitals were early hotspots in Pennsylvania and they are back to normal. Only a handful of COVID-19+ patients left and most departments are back to 100% preCOVID-19 levels, though a lot of that is backlogs of testing and procedures.

 

[phantasms]

On the topic of wearing masks, how can people be expected to wear masks if the people in charge of the country don’t even believe in the importance of wearing one.

View attachment 550544

Not to go too far off topic but how exactly do you think they ask him, every single time, to stand in front so it looks remotely diverse?

 

[SageBrush]

Any interest in a poll ?

Next year's health insurance premium increases by region/state

 

[MXLRplus]

Equivalent to saying "the most liberal county in Oklahoma." Yes, but not really.

2020 OC is not 1980 OC

And Conservative v2020 is more liberal than Liberal v1980. In 1980 we were still sterilizing Native American women without their knowledge. That was the liberals of 1980.

 

[N5329K]

No more green (used to be Hawaii, Alaska, Oregon, Montana, and one other I think).

View attachment 550522

America’s COVID warning system.

FWIW, Monterey County is seeing steady 3% daily growth in cases, and has for some time now. The vast majority of these new cases are in the Salinas area, and young Latinos (many of whom are ag workers) are the main victims. Not oldsters. Not those with co-morbidities. Young, healthy men and women. You can do the case doubling math and see this is not looking at all good for them, for us, and for the nation’s fresh food supply come July.
Despite the Business First press in Carmel (who seem to believe with all their little cold, stony hearts) that this virus wouldn’t dare travel over the Lettuce Curtain to the gold coast and interfere with golf, tourism, the Concours, the ATT, it most certainly has, and will.
“Essential workers” should not be interchangeable with “expendable workers.”
Robin

 

[madodel]

So the Feds have been building up stock piles of PPE, because of what was learned from the past 4 months? Apparently not a priority when we have complete morons running things. FEMA plans to deal with a resurgence of COVID-19 by asking medical personnel to reuse masks and gowns.

Internal Federal Emergency Management Agency data show that the government's supply of surgical gowns has not meaningfully increased since photos first emerged in March of nurses wearing trash bags for protection.

Document NH's Sen. Hassan demanded reveals FEMA asking nurses to reuse masks, gowns

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So the Feds have been building up stock piles of PPE, because of what was learned from the past 4 months? Apparently not a priority when we have complete morons running things. FEMA plans to deal with a resurgence of COVID-19 by asking medical personnel to reuse masks and gowns.

Internal Federal Emergency Management Agency data show that the government's supply of surgical gowns has not meaningfully increased since photos first emerged in March of nurses wearing trash bags for protection.

Document NH's Sen. Hassan demanded reveals FEMA asking nurses to reuse masks, gowns

JFC. WTF. FFS. SMH. FML.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

View attachment 550544

"Now listen, I want the 4 women and the black guy up front."

 

[AZRI11]

Arizona hospital admittance of covid-19 patients last 3 days are, 12 on Monday, 6 Tue and 1 for Wed. Here's the link
ADHS - Data Dashboard

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Arizona hospital admittance of covid-19 patients last 3 days are, 12 on Monday, 6 Tue and 1 for Wed. Here's the link
ADHS - Data Dashboard

I think you may have failed to account for deaths and discharges (over 100 per day in total)? However, hopefully the trend in people seeking care in the Emergency Department do plateau, or even decline, from here.

In any case, it is the overall trend over the course of weeks that is of concern. There may be short plateaus for whatever reason (maybe average incubation times relative to weekend gathering result in cases clustered at specific times of week - no idea).

Right now everything is fine, though busy, at the hospitals, as far as I can tell.. The concern is what happens if there is continued growth and it ends up being somewhat exponential - things can get out of hand if the community is not very careful. The positivity suggests that there could be large levels of disease circulating in the community. The higher the % positive, the lower % of cases are likely being caught. We’ll see. We’re not going to see another New York but it can be substantially better than that, and still be really bad!

The worse the community spread, the more difficult it becomes to keep it out of vulnerable populations - it will “find” (it has no mind, just numbers) a weakness through force of likelihood.

Whatever is happening, if the governor immediately issues an executive order requiring mask use, with penalties for non-compliance, and seriously models the appropriate behavior in public, I suspect that whatever happens here could be over in just 2-3 weeks. There are studies that suggest that we need about 60% compliance with about 60% mask effectiveness (N60 I guess, so a proper triple layer mask?) to put an end to the spread. Rough numbers.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Let’s take the completely irrelevant Orange County political discussion to the political thread. Or preferably just terminate it.

 

[AZRI11]

George Carlin for your viewing pleasure

 

[SVMike]

What I think should happen is for each state to hoard manufacturing equipment for these PPE. Because hoarded PPE lose their effectiveness overtime in storage. Like the straps breaking apart, losing its ability to help the mask make a seal.

A mask making machine shouldn't take up much space in storage when you take away the conveyor belts and other non essentials. What's next is just hoarding the raw materials in a stable form.

Why not just have hospitals maintain a few months supply (on site or off site) and use these as needed while constantly resupplying the buffered supply?