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I'm confused. The PCR test tests directly for the virus. How could someone not be contagious if the virus is in their mucus?
Of course the PCR test could be picking up some dead virus fragments from a COVID-19 infection that they cleared, but they still had it.

We all get cancerous cells. Does that mean we all have cancer?

People sleep for years in the same bed as their partner with TB and never contract the illness. Does that mean the unaffected person have no TB bacterial replication? Or do they "fight off" the beginning of the disease? I don't know, but I suspect a binary understanding of contagious disease is a vast simplification. Even the Covid PCR test likely has results just below and just above the diagnostic threshold.

As far as Fauci, he undoubtedly has a range of ideas in regard to innate immunity to covid and protection from T-cell activation from other coronaviruses. His public job is to elucidate what he believes to be an appropriate public health message. Not to focus on the 9 out of 10 people who don't get significant symptoms.
 
AZ looks great. Deaths going down! https://twitter.com/koko_vivian/status/1280546450741444609?s=20 WHERE ARE THE DEATHS?

As @Daniel in SD pointed out to me, it's very fortunate that exponential case growth keeps CFR very low. Whew.

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An under appreciated benefit of exponential growth in cases is that it brings the CFR down (assuming you don't wait for cases to be resolved!). Unfortunately there is a limited population so that trend cannot continue forever.
I'm old enough to remember when Germany's early 0.5% CFR was a "mystery".
 
As far as Fauci, he undoubtedly has a range of ideas in regard to innate immunity to covid and protection from T-cell activation from other coronaviruses.

Maybe you could read this thread?

https://twitter.com/BenjaminMeyer85/status/1280257221587320835?s=20


Even the Covid PCR test likely has results just below and just above the diagnostic threshold.

I'm not sure why you think this has significance. This can be a function of the viral load when the sample is taken - if there are not enough copies of RNA available, the chosen number of amplification cycles may not get the response high enough before they give up on getting a positive response. But this doesn't really have much to do with the disease itself and whether it is contagious, etc...

I'm old enough to remember when Germany's early 0.5% CFR was a "mystery".

I'm old enough to remember when the awesome so-respected Oxford CEBM (clickbait site?) used the German CFR to argue that 0.5% CFR meant that SARS-CoV-2 was no big deal (they used it to come up with an IFR). Then they kind of discarded that "good estimate" of the CFR in their IFR calculation as time went on. The upper bound of their confidence intervals kept getting exceeded in a most inconvenient way every couple weeks.

Haven't checked recently to see what they're using these days. The Wayback Machine on that site is quite entertaining, if you're into that sort of super boring poking around.
 
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As far as Fauci, he undoubtedly has a range of ideas in regard to innate immunity to covid and protection from T-cell activation from other coronaviruses. His public job is to elucidate what he believes to be an appropriate public health message. Not to focus on the 9 out of 10 people who don't get significant symptoms.
I've heard Fauci say in an interview that the range in severity of symptoms is one of biggest unexplained characteristics of the disease. It's absolutely something that is being researched. Knowing the answer may lead to better treatments,
 
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What's your point? The thread author says that he doesn't know. I'm not taking a position. But I am tired of simple positions on complex issues with conflicting data.

Of course it's not binary. But we do have clear, incontrovertible evidence of how this disease behaves when unleashed without any sort of actions taken. So in terms of using this "unknown" as rationale for why "we shouldn't be worried" is demonstrably silly (through recent past experience).

As far as developing future treatments and understanding the immune system's response to this disease, it's absolutely important to understand the cross immunity and how T-cells are involved in the immune response. There are a lot of unanswered questions!

My point is: I think people take this T-cell cross-immunity to mean at least one of several things (none of which are true, and all of which are damaging in terms of controlling this disease and bringing infections to zero in the US) 1) The herd immunity threshold might be quite low 2) Asymptomatic transmission is not a thing because asymptomatic people are effectively fighting the virus with their T-cell cross-immunity 3) Severity of the illness is likely to be low if you have T-cell cross-immunity, so that's some sort of golden ticket if we can identify those people who have that. 4) Actually tons of people have already been infected and don't have antibodies as a result of T-cell response, so this disease is no big deal (this is probably the most damaging naive hot take).

Agreed that it is that binary thinking at work that is hurting us, for sure, here. Unknowns like this mean 1) We must redouble our efforts to eliminate a disease that endangers our hospital systems and 2) We need to continue to research what results in mild responses to the virus and what leads to poor outcomes, in the hopes of finding better treatments.

Viral load in samples gathered from individuals varies by 9 orders of magnitude. That alone shows how non-binary the immune response to this virus can be, and explains the dramatic differences in how efficiently people spread the disease.

You were the one who posted the Medium article saying the virus is gone now in Switzerland (it's not gone)...so forgive me if I thought you might be overly credulous when it came to the positive implications of T-cell cross immunity.
 
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We all get cancerous cells. Does that mean we all have cancer?

People sleep for years in the same bed as their partner with TB and never contract the illness. Does that mean the unaffected person have no TB bacterial replication? Or do they "fight off" the beginning of the disease? I don't know, but I suspect a binary understanding of contagious disease is a vast simplification. Even the Covid PCR test likely has results just below and just above the diagnostic threshold.

As far as Fauci, he undoubtedly has a range of ideas in regard to innate immunity to covid and protection from T-cell activation from other coronaviruses. His public job is to elucidate what he believes to be an appropriate public health message. Not to focus on the 9 out of 10 people who don't get significant symptoms.

No way to ignore the world including the U.S. is in a pandemic. Saying to ignore the asymptomatic people who clearly have been proven to be major carriers by just their numbers is crazy. The problem IS the asymptomatic spreaders of the disease. The cost to the families of those made seriously ill, cost to our healthcare system, cost to our ecomony—you need healthy workers with little disruption to workflow, falls on the heads of people who don’t care to observe guidelines because they are selfish. They are truly damaging our country by their actions or lack of.
 
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We all get cancerous cells. Does that mean we all have cancer?

People sleep for years in the same bed as their partner with TB and never contract the illness. Does that mean the unaffected person have no TB bacterial replication? Or do they "fight off" the beginning of the disease? I don't know, but I suspect a binary understanding of contagious disease is a vast simplification. Even the Covid PCR test likely has results just below and just above the diagnostic threshold.

As far as Fauci, he undoubtedly has a range of ideas in regard to innate immunity to covid and protection from T-cell activation from other coronaviruses. His public job is to elucidate what he believes to be an appropriate public health message. Not to focus on the 9 out of 10 people who don't get significant symptoms.

I'm curious where you're getting the idea that there is some kind of mass presentation of a false "binary concept" of infection? I'm not even sure what you mean by that because the immune system has dozens and dozens of players and two branches. I'd be careful because I think you've acquired a few buzzwords and you may think you know a lot about this stuff, but it's pretty clear you're not a professional in this area and your statements actually expose a deceptive ignorance.

For example, when you talk about "innate immunity" in your comment above, I think you clearly are referencing acquired or adaptive immunity. The innate immune system is what initially reacts to pathogens and foreign proteins, basically with the whole family of cytokines and white cells, particularly macrophages. The Adaptive immune system on the other hand learns antigens presented to it by an arm of the innate immune system namely a special class of macrophages called dendritic cells. These present fragments of essentially chewed up Invaders to T cells and then T cells orchestrate the Adaptive immune response including the recruitment of B cells which become antibody factories. That knowledge so to speak is preserved long-term in T and B cell changes.

As for your notion that Anthony Fauci is somehow less competent than you are and is misdirecting his attention to the 9 out of 10 people who don't have any symptoms, you just blew yourself up with that one.
 
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I'm curious where you're getting the idea that there is some kind of mass presentation of a false "binary concept" of infection? I'm not even sure what you mean by that because the immune system has dozens and dozens of players and two branches. I'd be careful because I think you've acquired a few buzzwords and you may think you know a lot about this stuff, but it's pretty clear you're not a professional in this area and your statements actually expose a deceptive ignorance.

For example, when you talk about "innate immunity" in your comment above, I think you clearly are referencing acquired or adaptive immunity. The innate immune system is what initially reacts to pathogens and foreign proteins, basically with the whole family of cytokines and white cells, particularly macrophages. The Adaptive immune system on the other hand learns antigens presented to it by an arm of the innate immune system namely a special class of macrophages called dendritic cells. These present fragments of essentially chewed up Invaders to T cells and then T cells orchestrate the Adaptive immune response including the recruitment of B cells which become antibody factories. That knowledge so to speak is preserved long-term in T and B cell changes.

As for your notion that Anthony Fauci is somehow less competent than you are and is misdirecting his attention to the 9 out of 10 people who don't have any symptoms, you just blew yourself up with that one.

what a joke. Do you have a problem with reading comprehension? Don't skim what you presume i wrote. It's interesting to explore the various position of experts, especially when contrary to what is the common opinion. You , however, are a grandstanding bore.
 
what a joke. Do you have a problem with reading comprehension? Don't skim what you presume i wrote. It's interesting to explore the various position of experts, especially when contrary to what is the common opinion. You , however, are a grandstanding bore.

How is it that I misread your comment? I took issue with your use of terms, and your criticism of Fauci. And while we're on the question of what the experts are saying, the vast majority of them don't line up with your position. The fact that you found an outlier expert well, that's not really where you want to put your money if you're betting on a horse. As for calling someone who exposes your ignorance a grandstanding bore, well, once again, I'd rather be lined up with the best read of the science and if you want to call that grandstanding well, that's your prerogative. Happy to engage in any kind of healthy debate/discussion about what you think are the major questions regarding immunity and covid-19. Why don't you put those questions on the table including how the conventional wisdom may not do justice to those questions, and skip the insults. I'd be happy to have a genuine discussion.
 
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Deaths might be heading back up now

Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 2.38.42 PM.png
 
Deaths might be heading back up now

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I think it's pretty much flat, but about to head up. Looking at the deaths in aggregate like this can be a bit deceiving. Clearly there are upwards trends in some places, and downwards decay in mortality in others. But when dealing with exponentials, the upwards trend soon dominates. Pretty soon the overall will start rising.


In other news, looks like we have a PLAN for reopening schools. Hooray!!! The kids can go back to school!

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1280548761417191431?s=20

Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 2.56.19 PM.png



I was talking to my brother last night. He and his ex-wife have been safely sheltering at their respective homes safely for the last 4 months, kids shuttling back and forth between the houses. They are both fortunate enough to be able to work remotely. There's no way it would make any sense to send their kids back to school in Washington State! What would the point of the last four months have been? Fortunately it seems that the schools are making a diversity of options available to parents. Obviously, the kids will be staying out of school until this is over. This is not complicated.
 
I will never vote for anyone that supports unlimited/unconditional abortion.
I can't think of a single American politician in the last 100 years who supports unlimited/unconditional abortion. That's like a reverse straw man--it totally destroys your own argument. Such a thing does not exist, and therefore can't be the reason for a vote or non-vote.
 
I've heard Fauci say in an interview that the range in severity of symptoms is one of biggest unexplained characteristics of the disease. It's absolutely something that is being researched. Knowing the answer may lead to better treatments,

Yes, and I think it's (just) part of why I like and respect Fauci's take on this whole mess. This spectrum is so wide, with so much pain, suffering and death on one end, and just an invisible blip on the other. Good to highlight this. Raises a lot of important questions that - like you say - could bear major fruit.
 
There's no way it would make any sense to send their kids back to school in Washington State! What would the point of the last four months have been?

The point would be that we have now learned that the risk to children and younger healthy parents is very low. We didn't know that four months ago. The reason to not open schools is killing vulnerable staff at schools and bring disease home to vulnerable household members.

Your brother's children are more likely to die from drowning or choking than covid. Possibly even be choked by a parent driven mad by kids trapped at home for a year.
 
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