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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
The only glimmer of hope in Florida is that the average age testing positive is 21. While that number seems too low, if it's true the surge may not be too overwhelming.
But if I'm running the system I am greatly concerned about 100K people being infected per day (10K tested positive, 90K infected but untested). Only a tiny percentage need to develop severe symptoms to overwhelm the system. We shall see next week.
Florida is a giant test of the consequences of opening while seniors stay secluded.
This is now the virtue signaling thread. Take whatever position you like, but it must include how you obviously the superior human.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
The mode is 21, which is a type of average, so that's technically correct.
The mean is obviously much higher. The innumeracy pandemic also continues unabated.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, that's the mode as stated above. While a type of average, it's not all that relevant in this case.
Actual average age of infection is a lot lower now. This is because humans act rationally to preserve their health (you can actually see the age of complete development of the prefrontal cortex in the plot above). But the higher the infection pressure, the harder it is for the vulnerable to stay isolated.
The mode is 21, which is a type of average, so that's technically correct.
The mean is obviously much higher. The innumeracy pandemic also continues unabated.
View attachment 561793
Well, she says the case fatality rate is 2%. So I'm not sure she is a great source.
IIRC the average age in Florida is 41, which is very high. If the test age is 21 then there are massive numbers of teens and twenty-somethings getting tested.
I don't see high number of kids getting tested.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Huh? The CFR FWIW (which is not much) is 1.8% in FL currently. So that seems like a perfectly reasonable statement.
Huh? What do you mean? Do you mean average (typo instead of test age)? But we just got through saying the average (the mean or even the median) is not 21...and you can see from the above plot it is obviously significantly higher than 21, even if you're limiting the cases being looked at to the ones from over the last month. It's clearly bimodal, with one initial distribution, likely from the first surge, followed by a second distribution from the more recent surge in infections. But both distributions have means substantially higher than 21.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
San Antonio has ~450 ICU beds. We now have 389 COVID patients in the ICU. Plus the 300 or so patients in intensive care for other reasons. Of course they've created new "ICU beds" and even entire wards using duct tape and plastic drop cloths. I guess the health system should have been scarier back in May.
All of south TX in pretty much the same boat. Dallas not quite as bad and rural areas outside the southern part of the state are mostly OK. Record case and deaths today, but some of that is catch-up from July 4th. Same with record deaths in AZ and near-record in CA.
Are Mexican citizens seeking treatment in Texas? I read that news somewhere, but I wasn't sure if if was a Fox News/Trump claim.
linux-works
Active Member
I prefer manchester-encoded, low-voltage differential, TLV tagged with trailing CRC
if you're out of that, I'll have an ice'd tea. thanks.
MXLRplus
Active Member
With quite a few suggestions, most of which are not being addressed in school districts in my area.
https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2...ons-return-to-in-person-education-in-schools/
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Doesn't look like AZ is optimistic about being able to reopen schools in the fall! Not surprisingly, they state the obvious reasons why very likely it can't happen safely right now. Seems like a big problem. It's pure fantasy to think schools can open safely with positive test rates above 5%, let alone 20%. You really have to have very low levels of disease that is well tracked. Magical thinking. That may work for the stock market since perception is so important, but it doesn't work for schools.
https://twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg/status/1280678573938896897?s=20
The median age in FL is rising steadily.
I have to say with something like over half or more of the people testing positive are in a younger demographic, to me that is more worrisome in that they are more likely to have been asymptomatic and out there spreading the virus for who knows how long before they got tested. Given that likely reality it will take those they've infected during this time to manifest symptoms or continue to be additional spreaders and same for those people they've contacted. It's the runaway multiplication factor that will make even contact tracing impossible. I've heard that in some areas the spread is so great it's already effectively impossible to locate and then either treat or quarantine those infected. No way is this good news.
Social distancing in healthcare?!? Maybe for the Dial-A-Doc and Nurse Triage Line.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
But did you check the mode? It's ok because the mode is still 21.
Seriously...of course, this is not a surprise. Young adults to their parents & grandparents. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
linux-works
Active Member
all our 're-openings' have been complete and total under-achievements. as a rich country, we could have done better. the rich, who own our asses, decided not to, and so we are all being told to 'die for the dow'.
that's the long and short of it.
I had a short conversation with a guy at work and we talked about how soon our company (almost everyone is work-from-home) will 'open up'. and as I heard him talk about what life will be like, the more I realized that they are *still* not taking this deathly-seriously. so many details (which I'll leave out for now) that they simply didn't address, didn't care about or felt it would 'cost too much'.
because america has been turned away from the 'save for a rainy day' concept (that my grandfather and his contemporaries used to believe in) to the 'give it all to the top 1%' and regular guys are now living paycheck to paycheck. not only do regular people not have enough savings, *companies* who should know better, have no savings (or act like they dont since they refuse to spend seriously on this pandemic).
its looking like this is going to take, perhaps, 4 years to fully work itself out, world wide. and america currently is not built to sustain social situations like this; we have been turned to the 'survival of the fittest' and that just doesn't work when everyone needs to keep everyone else alive.
it sure looks like the world is going to teach everyone what the right form of society is. and it does not bode well for how america has been redirected. we gave up our social safety nets, we hate that 'S' word and we'll vote for the dumbest person on earth just to stick it to the other side.
we cannot survive 4 more years of this. I'm not even sure we can ever get back to where we were; the damage already seems far too deep and we're only a tiny way thru this multi-year problem!
I wish people would take this as the century-event that it really is. that's what bugs me the most. the constant downplaying of it, for the financial gain of the top 1%. dammit!
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
It's American citizens (or dual citizens) crossing the border. The border is closed to all non-commercial traffic and non-citizens right now.
I doubt someone with severe COVID-19 symptoms could survive the illegal crossing in the middle of summer.
I haven’t seen that kind of analysis by a state.
Mind sharing the link? I’d like to keep updated with that.
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