SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
A neo-trumpite
In the same vein as 'white nationalists' displaying faux rage at the suggestion they are neo-nazis
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
In the same vein as 'white nationalists' displaying faux rage at the suggestion they are neo-nazis
That is unfair to fruitcakes.
DanCar
Active Member
Arizona has increased 7 times in positive test cases in past 5 weeks. Current average deaths per day is 40. Assuming it takes an average 5 weeks from test to death (don't know if it is true, just an assumption), then in 5 weeks we could see 7 * 40 = 280 deaths per day. New York peak was 1,300 deaths per day (7 day average) per: 91-DIVOC : Flip the script on COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC. So Arizona would need to be at 487 deaths per day, adjusted for population to reach New York at peak, if my math and assumptions are correct and trends continue.
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Fair Point. Despite being nuttier than a fruitcake he was still able to cash in on the PPP program. So he is a sleazy fruitcake.
It supports the theory that COVID does not spread very well outdoors. Indoor it spreads rather easily. Tulsa has reported a big increase in cases related to Trump's rally.
Where are you getting this information? The federal aid for COVID per case shows many red states got significantly more money per case than blue states:
State-by-state breakdown of federal aid per COVID-19 case: HHS recently began distributing the first $30 billion of emergency funding designated for hospitals in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. Some of the states hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic will receive less funding than states touched relatively lightly, according to an analysis by Kaiser Health News.
New York got $12K per case, Florida has received $132K per case. There is zip in the bills passed out of the House that designates any money to any specific state. Congress allocates the money and the executive branch does the spending.
When New York was at the worst point in its outbreak, Cuomo was having to beg for ventilators. At the same time Cuomo was begging for ventilators Trump was sending ventilators that were not needed at the time to Florida out of the national stockpile.
If you can provide some legitimate source information for your assertions, I will concede my point, but the only ones I see playing political games at every turn here have an R after their name.
As someone pointed out, Seattle was on the rise before the protests, but even at that, there are also reports that some of the protesters in Seattle have tested positive. Unlike most protests, Seattle had the CHOP zone where protesters took over a neighborhood and there was more extended socialization, probably more of it indoors than other protests around the world.
The hospital ships proved to be a PR stunt and little else. Their utility was very limited and they were withdrawn.
I can't find current information, but the above link was from April and this story is from May
Billions in federal coronavirus aid flows to small states as bigger ones stagger under costs - CNNPolitics
Current differences in aid probably have to do with how much money is left in the kitty. Congress it working on another aid bill right now because the money previously allocated it running out. The executive branch allocates the money authorized by Congress, so if Florida is now getting less money than New York got (I don't see any stories on it, but it may be happening), it may be happening either because the fund is almost dry, or it may be happening because the current tone of this administration is that COVID is not a problem and we should just ignore it until it goes away on its own.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Something like that. Hopefully the mortality rate ends up being substantially lower than in NY. But even half that would be an impressive accomplishment in AZ, given that we know the virus is around and we know how to stop it.
Keep waiting to hear that those FEMA white refrigerated trucks are being moved to these states. I don't understand how anyone can have seen what happened in NYC and think this is normal, just like the flu. Amazing how people will believe lying politicians but not the truth. They should make all these deniers spend an hour walking through a hospital ED and ICU and see what hell is like.
linux-works
Active Member
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
"It's like a horror movie": Trapped inside San Quentin during an explosion of COVID-19
“It’s Like a Horror Movie”: Trapped Inside San Quentin During an Explosion of COVID-19
Public health experts warned that the crowded, aging prison could spark a “full-blown local epidemic.”
“It’s Like a Horror Movie”: Trapped Inside San Quentin During an Explosion of COVID-19
Public health experts warned that the crowded, aging prison could spark a “full-blown local epidemic.”
Daily new deaths with a 7 day filter to remove most of the weekly cycle.
Looks like its going up to me...
P.S. yes I get it's part compensating for the likely holiday dip, but still seems to be a bit more than that...
Looks like its going up to me...
P.S. yes I get it's part compensating for the likely holiday dip, but still seems to be a bit more than that...
thanks, would love to see more of this type of data on here in the coming weeks...for some reason media does not like to show number of daily deaths very much and it makes people wonder
Dr. J
Active Member
"Coronavirus panic is dumb." --Elon Musk
"that is all / Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know" --John Keats
These metrics are definitely something to watch. As much as we all might propose a data driven approach to covid-19 public health measures what I would advocate is an understanding driven approach. Let’s go out and collect not just death trend data, but the data that explains the trend. If we see deaths not following the case growth trend and a well supported explanation why then my level of concern would likely change.
The trend in daily deaths has been a positive surprise given the big trend up in cases. But given the steady increase in hospitalizations in some states I think we should be suspicious and not celebrate this too early.
Am I suppose to feel bad for violent criminals in prison?
Prisons are not isolated environments. Guards and other staff go home every day. Prisoners who get seriously ill end up in local hospitals where staff are exposed. Prisoners also finish their sentences and get released back into the world. Some prisoners who are low risk are being given compassionate release. All of Marin County is having an outbreak now because of a some COVID positive prisoners who were transferred to San Quentin from Chino during the outbreak there.
Jails are even more dangerous because the turnaround in jails is even faster than prisons. Jails have a large number of people who are there for less than 24 hours.
One of my partner's clients got COVID in a short stint in jail for BS reasons.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, don’t think there will be any celebrating. Deaths lag, and they have a long tail.
I still expect an overall CFR of about 1-1.5%, when all is said and done, from cases found today. This may increase locally if we see positivity above 30% and start running out of tests. It will likely drop a bit if positivity falls from current levels.
But as an example of the long tail, take a look at NJ. They have a running daily CFR of about 10% right now - about one death for every 10 daily cases. Most of this is due to “leftovers” from their enormous peak more than two months ago. This is with the amazing new treatments, too. (Probably damage was already done.)
Large peaks in cases are bad. They will lead to mortality. When we get to 100k cases a day, I expect 1000 deaths a day to follow.
We’ve been through this before. We probably had 6000 infections a day in late February. About 3-4 weeks later, we had 60 deaths a day.
Treatments are better and infections are skewing younger, so I expect about a third of that ratio now. In mid June we had ~100k new infections a day, so I expect about 300 deaths a day due to those infections right now or perhaps next week (use closer to 2-3 week lag since identification lags infection). Stacked on top of whatever leftovers there are from the first surge. Seems about right.
So if/when we get to ~300k infections (100k cases) a day at the end of next week, I expect we’ll be rocking over 1000 deaths a day again around August 1st. If infected population skews older again by end of next week, we could see that elevate to perhaps 1500 deaths a day. We’ll see. A great way to ring in the new school year.
I hope I am way off on this, and we can merely rock well under 1k deaths per day for quite some time. But I would be surprised if that mortality were absent this time.
Anyway, let’s get those kids back to school. What could go wrong? Seriously though, I do think if we get to herd immunity by late August, we should send the kids back to school. We can get there if we try. Hospital capacity is the only fly in the ointment.
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Another question both for categorization as well as just thinking about the death toll, how do we count deaths from long term complications? There are a lot of people out there with organ damage and for some it's going to turn fatal in the next few years. How do we count those deaths? COVID will have been a contributing factor, but it will happen a long time after recovery.
I heard today that Houston is seeing an increase in people dying at home fro COVID. When that happened in NYC it was partially due to a lack of ambulance capacity and partially due to fear of going to the hospital until it was too late. That's happening in another city now, which is a bad sign.
By the time people were dying at home in NYC the city had been locked down for a few weeks, but Texas is just shutting down now. That will likely mean the peak will be much worse in Houston and some other Texas cities than in NYC.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Right, but people should remember that a hospital that is full is its own big problem. ICU beds are just the canary in the coal mine. One hospital full -- small problem. Close to all hospitals full -- catastrophic consequences.
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