MikeQ
Member
That's just someone else's theory on why he said it. I like mine better.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
That's just someone else's theory on why he said it. I like mine better.
Dr. J
Active Member
OK, let's avoid admitting your mistake by changing the subject.
What?! More testing is ACTIONABLE! Especially when you don't have enough *(*&^%()&@! tests available! It tells you WHO HAS THE VIRUS.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
We don't tell everyone with respiratory symptoms to go get a flu test. We tell those sick enough to PRESENT FOR CARE that we need to test them (mainly because we can treat them if they have influenza).
If someone is in respiratory distress and has symptoms of a respiratory pathogen, you TREAT them the same - supportive care. A positive COVID-19 test will have ZERO impact on the care you are to provide.
TESTING for COVID-19, versus being a GOOD CLINICIAN (some of us still know how to do that), that's the question?
Dr. J
Active Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
My county School superintendent just sent an email blast that there are no cases in schools and so doesn't justify closing schools. Neighboring districts have shutdown school because of potential transmission.
Now, how can you practise social distancing if you deny there's an issue?
Singer3000
Member
Governments around the world are taking quite different approaches. China performed an authoritarian lockdown. Italy is shutting down the fabric of its entire civic society - evening restaurants, football, schools, non-food shops. Singapore is doing highly targeted contact tracing of each case with precise and transparent digital data. Etc...
Meanwhile the UK is taking a radically different approach (I suspect from Merkel’s comments Germany is taking the same path).
Which is to acknowledge that containment has failed.
That longer term lockdowns (until a vaccine comes?) are both economically and socially unviable.
And to hypothesise that short term lockdowns will not work to stop the disease (only flatten and stretch the hump), and cases elsewhere will rise again as restrictions are lifted, particularly given global spread.
But to recognise that you don’t want vulnerable people to catch Cv-19 and you want to spread the load on health systems as far as possible.
And so goes the Herd Immunity strategy:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston
The US doesn’t seem to be following a centralised coordinated strategy, you can find flavours of each approach across different states.
For those with investing interests outside of one stock (and even those that only watch TSLA), these differing approaches need to be borne carefully in mind. Because it’s clear these differing strategies are likely to result in quite different short and medium term outcomes, that may only become evident by mid 2021.
Does China have a mini bounce this year but then get stuck in a mass-containment trap if cases rise again? What does it do then and what does that mean for the future of the current leadership? Or have they contained it never to return and long term, 2020 will be seen as a key milestone in assent of China?
Is the structural integrity of the Eurozone strong enough to sustain the high economic impact approach of Italy?
Does the absence of leadership on this issue in Iran lead to a political collapse that would have global ramifications? Or are social media reports from the country overblown and instead the regime is using the health crisis as a smokescreen to take out all opposition?
Does the UK approach lead to unnecessarily high mortality and morbidity, terminally undermining the new government? Or does it set itself up for the strongest V-Shape recovery of the OECD countries?
What does the US approach (or lack of one) mean for November, and the longer term political centre ground?
What’s happening in Russia with all this, especially noting the oil price war?
We can all come up with our own answers to this parlour game. But the point is, none of us know. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pieces have been thrown high in the air. The lesson of the subprime crisis was that the second and third order consequences were far more impactful than the US housing crash itself. And they are very hard to predict.
So uncertainty rules the day for now. Which probably makes the macros still a sell rather than buy.
Meanwhile the UK is taking a radically different approach (I suspect from Merkel’s comments Germany is taking the same path).
Which is to acknowledge that containment has failed.
That longer term lockdowns (until a vaccine comes?) are both economically and socially unviable.
And to hypothesise that short term lockdowns will not work to stop the disease (only flatten and stretch the hump), and cases elsewhere will rise again as restrictions are lifted, particularly given global spread.
But to recognise that you don’t want vulnerable people to catch Cv-19 and you want to spread the load on health systems as far as possible.
And so goes the Herd Immunity strategy:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston
The US doesn’t seem to be following a centralised coordinated strategy, you can find flavours of each approach across different states.
For those with investing interests outside of one stock (and even those that only watch TSLA), these differing approaches need to be borne carefully in mind. Because it’s clear these differing strategies are likely to result in quite different short and medium term outcomes, that may only become evident by mid 2021.
Does China have a mini bounce this year but then get stuck in a mass-containment trap if cases rise again? What does it do then and what does that mean for the future of the current leadership? Or have they contained it never to return and long term, 2020 will be seen as a key milestone in assent of China?
Is the structural integrity of the Eurozone strong enough to sustain the high economic impact approach of Italy?
Does the absence of leadership on this issue in Iran lead to a political collapse that would have global ramifications? Or are social media reports from the country overblown and instead the regime is using the health crisis as a smokescreen to take out all opposition?
Does the UK approach lead to unnecessarily high mortality and morbidity, terminally undermining the new government? Or does it set itself up for the strongest V-Shape recovery of the OECD countries?
What does the US approach (or lack of one) mean for November, and the longer term political centre ground?
What’s happening in Russia with all this, especially noting the oil price war?
We can all come up with our own answers to this parlour game. But the point is, none of us know. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pieces have been thrown high in the air. The lesson of the subprime crisis was that the second and third order consequences were far more impactful than the US housing crash itself. And they are very hard to predict.
So uncertainty rules the day for now. Which probably makes the macros still a sell rather than buy.
I have been arguing for 2 weeks for Ventura City Schools to close. I have a 14 year old there and my wife teaches there. Finally!!!!! They will be closed as of end of Friday. It actually lowered my anxiety considerably.
As soon as I posted that, the supervisor sent a mail saying schools are out tomorrow. More to come. (Fairfax county)
dc_h
Active Member
Wrong. Covid19 care is vastly different from the flu. It requires a spectrum of treatments and much more ICU support. Flu rarely requires hospitalization but Italy is hospitalized about 50% of victims.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
(facepalm)
Yeah, so not true. Where to begin . . .
First - I didn't say it was treated the same as the Flu. You inferred that (incorrectly). I said we TEST FOR FLU because we can TREAT FLU..
One of the first things taught at medical school - order tests when you have a CLEAR IDEA what you will do with the result. If the result will not change your course of action, then the test is not indicated. Flu testing can be indicated, with clinical suspicion, because we have antivirals that can lessen the severity and duration of the disease.
Now, on to COVID-19.
There is a wonderful JAMA article out as of 2 days ago that summarizes nicely current "standard of care" for COVID-19. It's pretty much exactly how you treat anyone with ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome):
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762996
And it's interesting that you mention Italy - - Italy has on average the OLDEST population of Europe. COVID-19 dis-proportionally affects the elderly:
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Much smaller sample size with only 66 cases reported as of today afternoon, but Santa Clara County has about a 50% hospitalization rate as well so far.
dc_h
Active Member
Just because testing may not effect course of action?
Modern medicine in America better catch up with modern analytics. Not testing and getting metadata to document efficacy is bad science. Helps explain why American doctors think we have a good system in spite of inferior results for more money.
I disagree. There are people with mild symptoms walking around right now spreading disease. If they could easily / quickly get tested they could be properly isolated at home. Not having adequate tests is a colossal failure.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Testing for epidemiology data collection is VERY different than testing for clinical decision making.
Don't confuse the two.
Singer3000
Member
Some more info on the new UK strategy:
Benjamin Kentish on Twitter
And here is the UK Chief Medical Officer outlining the strategy. If you have mild symptoms, stay at home for 7 days. Only seek medical attention if your symptoms progress to serious. Meanwhile at this point, no forced bans on public events or school closures which are seen as counter productive to the central strategy.
Boris Johnson on Twitter
When the UK government says it is modelling for an 80% infection rate, I think we need to take them at their word. Germany are saying similar.
Coronavirus: as many as 10,000 in Britain may already have it, says PM
As an investor, I am relieved I took the steps I did, both to protect my existing assets and to profit from the slide to provide some extra buffer against likely loss of future income.
Where do markets go from here? There’s a prevalent market view still that this is a short sharp v-shape recession that will not affect 2021 numbers. Maybe that’s right but see my previous post on the unknowables. Even if that is the case, I do not think we are at the bottom yet, until this grim message has been properly absorbed by global society at large. The mood of which after all is what indirectly drives global markets trends outside the short term.
Unless of course the UK govt is totally wrong and it really is “Mission Accomplished” as claimed by China. Let’s hope so.
Benjamin Kentish on Twitter
And here is the UK Chief Medical Officer outlining the strategy. If you have mild symptoms, stay at home for 7 days. Only seek medical attention if your symptoms progress to serious. Meanwhile at this point, no forced bans on public events or school closures which are seen as counter productive to the central strategy.
Boris Johnson on Twitter
When the UK government says it is modelling for an 80% infection rate, I think we need to take them at their word. Germany are saying similar.
Coronavirus: as many as 10,000 in Britain may already have it, says PM
Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said that worst-case scenario planning projected that 80% of the country would contract the virus, with a 1% mortality rate. This equates to more than 500,000 deaths.
Speaking at a sombre press conference in Downing Street, the prime minister said measures to tackle “the worst public health crisis for a generation” could “cause severe disruption” to everyday life for months.
“It is going to spread further and I must level with you, I must level with the British public: many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time,” Johnson said, as two more fatalities from Covid-19 brought the death toll in Britain so far to 10.
Dismissing the belief that the virus is comparable to seasonal flu, he added: “Alas that is not right. Due to the lack of immunity, this disease is more dangerous,” with the elderly at particular risk. Entire families could be told to self-isolate if one of them falls ill, and people should start looking after elderly relatives and neighbours, he added.
As a son, husband, father and citizen it saddens me deeply that my prior warnings that were seen by many here as alarmist, are a view now openly shared by the government of the United Kingdom.“It is going to spread further and I must level with you, I must level with the British public: many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time,” Johnson said, as two more fatalities from Covid-19 brought the death toll in Britain so far to 10.
Dismissing the belief that the virus is comparable to seasonal flu, he added: “Alas that is not right. Due to the lack of immunity, this disease is more dangerous,” with the elderly at particular risk. Entire families could be told to self-isolate if one of them falls ill, and people should start looking after elderly relatives and neighbours, he added.
As an investor, I am relieved I took the steps I did, both to protect my existing assets and to profit from the slide to provide some extra buffer against likely loss of future income.
Where do markets go from here? There’s a prevalent market view still that this is a short sharp v-shape recession that will not affect 2021 numbers. Maybe that’s right but see my previous post on the unknowables. Even if that is the case, I do not think we are at the bottom yet, until this grim message has been properly absorbed by global society at large. The mood of which after all is what indirectly drives global markets trends outside the short term.
Unless of course the UK govt is totally wrong and it really is “Mission Accomplished” as claimed by China. Let’s hope so.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
A better course of action is to instruct ANYONE with respiratory symptoms to self isolate. This is actually the current WHO and CDC recommendation.
In a perfect world, sure. But think about people with jobs / classes who feel pretty much fine and therefore doubt that they even have COVID-19, or hate to sideline themselves for a big exam / meeting, or this Saturday’s night shift at the restaurant, based on a hunch because they have a scratchy throat and a slight cough. The ability for those people to quickly get tested, and therefore have the justification to isolate, is huge.
Instead they’re making serious career / job decisions with incomplete data - that’s a tough call that shouldn’t have to be made.
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