Coronavirus

[NikolaACDC]

I'll say one thing about sociopaths and psychopaths: they are consistent.
Even so, I am impressed (in a very, very bad way) that trump would be practicing his dog whistles and corruption at any cost way of doing business during a severe epidemic.

You still are surprised? That surprises me

 

[NikolaACDC]

Ha! I am new to the area and was wondering the same thing. Gonna note all these down, for me to try

I used to ride the roads around Sandy Eggo on motorcycles.
A good one for a car is also along the border.
Find your way to Dulzura and then Barrett Junction (via the 94/Campo Rd or Otay Lakes Rd)
Stay on the 94 going east until you're near Boulevard.
From there you could go back west on I-8 (the side road 'Old Hwy 80' is not that interesting)
and exit for the Sunrise Hwy to go up to Mt.Laguna (check weather, they could have snow or closures up there)
and come down the other side.
Then either back South to I-8 via Lake Cuyamaca
or north to Julian and then Ramona.

Make sure everybody has ID with them, border patrol has stationary and pop-up checks near the border.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'll say one thing about sociopaths and psychopaths: they are consistent.
Even so, I am impressed (in a very, very bad way) that trump would be practicing his dog whistles and corruption at any cost way of doing business during a severe epidemic.

View attachment 526802

Those screaming for Trump to invoke DPA and take over all production and allocation of ventilators and PPE so "states don't compete against each other" should think how happy they'd be with Trump personally allocating all such equipment based on personal grudges.

Regardless of care or hospital status, plenty of the mortality rates used universally within the study are wrong. 40-49 year olds have absolutely nowhere near a 1.5% mortality rate in reality.

Ferguson's Imperial College study used 0.15% for 40-49 IFR, not 1.5%. It's right there in Table 1. Why lie?

BTW, others have said the study based 500k UK deaths on hospitals being overrun. That's also untrue:

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.​

The study does also look at how various countermeasures affect the likelihood of hospitals being overrun, but they didn't estimate fatalities for that.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Don't pretend I said that, you know better. Or, considering your comment about water on the brain, maybe not. Physician heal thyself:
Adult-onset Hydrocephalus – Symptoms, Diagnosis and Treatments

From what I've read, Hydrocephalus/Ventriculomegaly tend to occur with other disorders, and it's hard to separate the symptoms from symptoms of other disorders.

In my experience, most providers cannot distinguish between types of dementias, especially with comorbidities. It's really up to the patient and/or their family to go to different providers to try to figure out what's going on. If a provider is pushing an appointment out until June, it may be because they don't think they can do much and put you at the back of the line. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions. I have a lot of experience with many different health care systems and conditions.

 

[SageBrush]

You still are surprised? That surprises me

Funny, but to clarify:

trump supports his base for short term gain, but even a person of average understanding realizes that the states are connected. A wildly out of control epidemic in IL or MI will spread to trumper states. It would be entirely consistent for him to divert money and e.g ventilators to the trumper states, but actions that accelerate the epidemic in non-trumper states will bite his trumpers in the ass soon enough.

 

[SageBrush]

Those screaming for Trump to invoke DPA and take over all production and allocation of ventilators and PPE so "states don't compete against each other" should think how happy they'd be with Trump personally allocating all such equipment based on personal grudges.

Exactly right.
In the meantime trump was just given $2T to divvy up as he sees fit. Covid-19 is his wet dream

 

[EVNow]

Those screaming for Trump to invoke DPA and take over all production and allocation of ventilators and PPE so "states don't compete against each other" should think how happy they'd be with Trump personally allocating all such equipment based on personal grudges.

Fascism on full display now.

 

[EVNow]

That was a PCR test. The Methods section of the paper specifically describes that they used RT-PCR for detection.

"RNA was extracted from clinical specimens and determined by rRT-PCR targeting the open reading frame 1ab gene of SARS-CoV-2 as previously described."

What I meant was - the sensitivity problems are not because of the PCR test - but sample collection method. Some have better sensitivity than others.

 

[mrmage]

Thanks for your suggestion. My 7-day averages were motivated based on the idea, that testing capacity during the weekend might be negatively impacted (especially in Europe) and I wanted to get rid of such noise in the data.
Please find attached rolling 4-day average graphs.

View attachment 526815
View attachment 526816

The graph likely shows the growth in testing, not the growth of CV19. Test capability is limited while CV is spreading exponentially, so testing cannot keep up.

Although a lagging indicator, best metric is deaths, second best is CV hospital admissions, because the most severely impacted are most likely to be tested.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Exactly right.
In the meantime trump was just given $2T to divvy up as he sees fit. Covid-19 is his wet dream

Partially true. I think only $500 billion are a slush fund. The President did issue a statement that he can stop the newly created Special Inspector General from reporting how those funds are being used to Congress. Seems a little bit shady to me! I'm starting to think he might not be the anticorruption warrior we voted for...

Section 4018 of Division A of the Act establishes a new Special Inspector General for Pandemic Recovery (SIGPR) within the Department of the Treasury to manage audits and investigations of loans and investments made by the Secretary of the Treasury under the Act. Section 4018(e)(4)(B) of the Act authorizes the SIGPR to request information from other government agencies and requires the SIGPR to report to the Congress “without delay” any refusal of such a request that “in the judgment of the Special Inspector General” is unreasonable. I do not understand, and my Administration will not treat, this provision as permitting the SIGPR to issue reports to the Congress without the presidential supervision required by the Take Care Clause, Article II, section 3.

Statement by the President | The White House

 

[NicoV]

Here is a very useful table from the Florida DOH taken from my above link
CFR is evolving but I think the relative CFR per age group can be calculated with some confidence.

View attachment 526780

Todays report for Belgium stated that so far, more than 9 in 10 deaths are 65+. The youngest death so far is a 30 yo.

 

[traxila]

BREAKING: Tolicizumab (Actemra) shown to be more effective than hydroxychloroquine in treating coronavirus patients, Italian doctors say | Tech News | Startups News

 

[EVNow]

Detailed and interesting dashboard on covid-19 tests in King County, WA.

COVID-19 data dashboard - King County

 

[SDRick]

On a lighter note...

 

[dhanson865]

Florida is the new Cruise Ship, and with really good reporting

https://floridadisaster.org/globala...id-19-data---daily-report-2020-03-27-1819.pdf

I was surprised to see the 0-4 year old hospitalized and the 5-15 year old as well.

from deep in the document, no easy way to sort by age so I'm just grabbing some under 10 to show they are there, I might miss some.

* Alachua 2 year old Female No No FL resident 03/23/20
* Brevard 1 year old Male No No FL resident 03/26/20
* Broward 0 year old Male Unknown Yes FL resident 03/24/20
* Broward 1 year old Female Unknown Yes FL resident 03/24/20
* Dade 3 year old Female Unknown FL resident 03/25/20
* Dade 3 year old Female Unknown FL resident 03/25/20 (not a duplicate, different case number)
* Hillsborough 6 year old Male Unknown Yes FL resident 03/23/20
* Hillsborough 3 year old Male No Yes FL resident 03/24/20
* Hillsborough 6 year old Male No Yes FL resident 03/24/20
* Orange 9 year old Male Unknown No FL resident 03/25/20
* Palm Beach 6 year old Female Unknown Yes FL resident 03/18/20
* Polk 8 Male No Yes FL resident 03/20/20
* Santa Rosa 2 year old Male No No FL resident 03/23/20
* Santa Rosa 0 year old Male No No FL resident 03/26/20

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't know if it's communism, or just having power concentrate on one person or one group.

There was a period, I distinctively remember, when China was on the up and up. Their society was modernizing, becoming capitalist and turning more and more free. I could almost see a prosperous future as China turns into a society much like USA.

Then a year or two before Xi got crowned forever emperor, things started reverting. Slowly at first so it didn't seem alarming, but got really bad recently. Mind you, it is still way better than the earliest days where a foreign businessman risk getting killed and having their buisiness taken over if they didn't bribe the right gov official. But numerous example recently shows that it is reverting to something similar. Where businesses were forced to have their shares signed away to communist party members, but they still kept their lives at least.

Gee, maybe Tesla should leave China ASAP. /s

 

[dhanson865]

What site is this?

That comes from COVID-19 #CoronaVirus Infographic Datapack — Information is Beautiful

 

[Todesbuckler]

The graph likely shows the growth in testing, not the growth of CV19. Test capability is limited while CV is spreading exponentially, so testing cannot keep up.

Although a lagging indicator, best metric is deaths, second best is CV hospital admissions, because the most severely impacted are most likely to be tested.

Yes, that's a valid concern about using the positive test rate. However, as you mentioned plotting the deaths would provide us only with lagging information about the outbreak. Hospital admissions would be great, but I assume data availability is here an issue.

I am not sure about the statement that test growth is smaller than the growth in infection rates. If this is the case, we should expect consistent increases in the ratio of daily positive tests compared to daily test volume, which is not the case everywhere. Italy for example is increasing the daily test volume somehow constantly while the ratio of positive test to daily test volume is decreasing the last 9 days: Coronavirus Italia

 

[SageBrush]

BREAKING: Tolicizumab (Actemra) shown to be more effective than hydroxychloroquine in treating coronavirus patients, Italian doctors say | Tech News | Startups News

That might be interesting. I keep wondering why the Covid-19 data is so skewed in favor of the 1 - 19 age group. If I wanted to go far, far out on on a limb I would ponder the effect of exercise. That monoclonal is an IL-6 receptor blocker while exercise leads to elevated IL-6. This appears contradictory but they may be related via receptor regulation.

Trying to understand cytokine action is really hard due to pluripotent actions that vary by organ but in general IL-6 increases BMR. In that context IL-6 blockage could be understood as an anti-stimulant, or colloquially to putting someone on ice.

I'll give this some more thought while I am on the elliptical

 

[bkp_duke]

Old Julian Highway from Ramona to Witch Creek? Highland Valley Road? What are your favorites? Mine is Santa Ysabel to Lake Henshaw through Mesa Grande, then the East Grade to Mt. Palomar.

Just got in and did the S6 up Palomar Mtn over to the S7 down to Lake Henshaw. The end of S7 wasn't very good today because there was fog and we could not let loose on that part of the trip. Came back through Mesa Grande then over to Escondido for a few stop light races.

Also, EVERYONE was out, even at 5:30 in the AM. Hunters, campers, sightseers. I've never seen the wilderness out there so "packed" with people.

Was a BLAST, but I was a tad disappointed that the Julian Pie Company was closed. Oh well, just have to schedule a repeat trip.