Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

This graph is from the Los Angeles Times.
If the apparent peak infections has been reached (and is not an artefact of limited testing) then reopening the state to work by May 4 is not far-fetched.

 

[defc0n]

i think around May 10 we should see very few daily new cases in the US. I’m not about to try and suggest proper economic or health policy though. I worry about a second wave.

 

[dhanson865]

 

[Daniel in SD]

Long tail from a big hump

Ignoring that detail,
The daily case rate is fairly stable at ~ 100 a day. I have not looked at SK data for a while, but you can figure that daily mortality will reach steady state after ~ 3 - 4 weeks of a constant new daily case rate.

There really was no hump in deaths though. I’m very curious what’s going on. The steady state should be way lower than what we’re seeing. Are other countries removing people from ventilators when the prognosis is terminal?

 

[renim]

2547/5908 = 43% recovered

figures will change again tomorrow/

 

[Doggydogworld]

Long tail from a big hump

New cases peaked 5 weeks ago, though, and has been 50-150ish per day for 4 weeks. Seems deaths should be closer to 2/day by now.

Perhaps Korea's extensive test & trace program caught a lot of cases very early, up to a week before symptoms appeared. That would lengthen the lag on these charts vs. someplace like Italy or NYC where they only test people who've had it 2-3 weeks.

Us death rate is picking up steam....
oh and btw it's looking like it's up to 6% now using yesterdays data, similar deaths per confirmed cases as Iran

US nCFR is ~3%, not 6%. And Iran just makes numbers up.

 

[Norbert]

Anybody have a theory on South Korea? They continue to average ~5 deaths per day despite cases peaking back in February. I know people on ventilators can last a long time before finally succumbing, but I'd expect the numbers to ramp down.

BTW, they're almost at 2% CFR.

A bit difficult to tell. They still have almost 4,000 active cases, down from about 7,000. Often the recovery/active-cases numbers are not as reliable as other numbers, but aside from speculations, that is the only hint I can see. If SK really still has 4,000 active cases, that means that the time-to-recovery and time-to-death are extremely long there.

If the number of active cases is not correct, then one theoretical possibility might be that the remaining low level of new cases has a high CFR.

EDIT: Iceland might also have a very long time-to-death/recovery. Who knows, maybe China has a long tail as well, and just doesn't count or publish those numbers.

 

[AndyH]

I noticed that Trump talked about Sweden regarding corona and he said we're suffering badly and the US is handling it a lot better.

Swedens numbers are a lot better than for example New York but slightly worse than total US numbers. Swedes likes to travel and we're close to the Alps so a lot of tourist brought covid-19 home with them from northern Italy. Swedish government hasn't handled this perfectly but we're not much worse than others. Hopefully that will continue despite our more relaxed measures.

 

[Norbert]

Perhaps Korea's extensive test & trace program caught a lot of cases very early, up to a week before symptoms appeared. That would lengthen the lag on these charts vs. someplace like Italy or NYC where they only test people who've had it 2-3 weeks.

This interpretation would be compatible with the still high number of active cases, if that number is valid. It might also apply to Iceland which also had a high level of testing.

 

[jerry33]

Just go see a Nurse Practitioner or a Physician's Assistant.

But those people are all you ever get to see anymore (unless maybe you live in a small town, where doctors are doctors rather than businesspersons running a company rather than practicing medicine).

 

[sparcs]

Hundreds of American, Southwest airlines employees test positive for COVID-19

Around 100 American Airlines flight attendants and at least 600 Southwest employees tested positive for COVID-19, their respective unions say.

Additionally, a second AA flight attendant has died of the novel coronavirus, sources say. He was a St. Louis-based flight attendant.

apparently they are just talking about masks being distributed now:

American Airlines union says 100 flight attendants have coronavirus

The Association of Professional Flight Attendants, representing more than 27,000 flight attendants, disclosed the figure in a message to its membership and said the airline has "agreed to start providing face masks for frontline team members while at work should you choose to wear one." The union said masks are being distributed this week.

Should they be doing some sort of health check and temperature screenings on all employees?

 

[Unpilot]

Should they be doing some sort of health check and temperature screenings on all employees?

Yes.

Sadly at my Company we don't...and I know of no way to get tested either.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It's good to hear from someone in Sweden! Your country is certainly taking a different approach than other countries. There should be more antibody tests soon to determine the true infection numbers. Is your country expanding hospital capacity to deal with the surge in cases?

To some extent. Mostly there seems to be a lot of keeping anyone not very sick out of the hospitals to have resources available. Even me when I was really sick, as in way worse than ever in my life, they didn't tell me outright not to go to the hospital but strongly suggested I wait a few days.

Comparing death numbers between regions/countries seems almost random. They depend so much on what part of the population the virus gets a stranglehold on.

It's interesting comparing Sweden having much less restrictions than Denmark and Norway. The population demographics very similar. Yeah the Danes are mostly drunks but apart from that not much difference in age, health etc.

The main difference seems to have been that a sizeable number of Swedes go skiing in the Alps when the schools have a week long winter break. This meant there was direct contact for many Swedes with northern Italy right when the outbreak started. You can even see it in that the winter break for Southern Sweden schools is one week earlier than Stockholm schools (see so many people are doing these vacation trips they have to stagger them). This one week meant many southerners missed getting infected because the outbreak in the Alps wasn't in full swing yet when they were there. The next week the outbreak was much bigger and a larger percentage of the Stockholmers got infected. One can still see this a month later in that many more are infected in Stockholm than in the southern parts.

The good thing that happened here is that it seems like compared to many other countries we managed to keep it from spreading in any hospitals before everyone was looking for it and until this week had managed to keep it out of elderly living housing.

Still Denmark and Norway got their infections in mostly other ways and have gone about isolation very differently, as has most other countries, and yet the numbers aren't that different. Certainly not more different than can be explained by differences in reporting.

Heartwarming to see so many acknowledging John Prine today. There's a true American hero.

 

[SageBrush]

There really was no hump in deaths though

The Case hump, meaning the group of cases within a couple days of the peak daily cases

 

[MXLRplus]

California Governor to acquire 200 million N95 masks for $1 billion: California to get more than 200 million masks a month in coronavirus fight, Gov. Newsom says

I believe the MSRP of 3M 1860 N95 is ~$1 in quantity.

 

[HG Wells]

California Governor to acquire 200 million N95 masks for $1 billion: California to get more than 200 million masks a month in coronavirus fight, Gov. Newsom says

I believe the MSRP of 3M 1860 N95 is ~$1 in quantity.

Yes its normally less than $1, but Jared must make his standard mark up.

 

[bkp_duke]

But those people are all you ever get to see anymore (unless maybe you live in a small town, where doctors are doctors rather than businesspersons running a company rather than practicing medicine).

Well, if you really want me to go there . . . blame Obamacare and the insurance companies.

The ACA expanded the role that nurses and like affiliates have, which caused the number of these types of providers to explode. The insurance companies embraced this ACA change because they could save a marginal amount on provider fees (NPs and PAs are capped on the "difficulty" they can see, which means their billing is also capped). Hospitals love NPs and PAs because they have lower salaries than docs.

Docs have a love/hate relationship with NPs / PAs. On the one hand, a well trained NP/PA can legitimately remove some of the work load a doc has to see by seeing less complex patients. On the other hand, NPs/PAs work under a physicians license. That means that, ultimately, the doc can be sued for medical malpractice because of a mistake by one of these providers. And those lawsuits do happens. So to keep those risks low, we have to supervise these providers, which means . . . more time taken up in our already busy schedule.

EDIT - and very few docs are businesspeople. Honestly, we are getting killed by the system. Before I quit, I was spending 8-6 seeing patients, and then came home with charts and documented my cases till 11-12 at night. No longer do we have time to complete our documentation during or immediately after the patient encounter. I blame Obamacare squarely for this one - the documentation requirements went through the roof after the ACA passed (and they did measure about 7 years later - with no appreciable change in patient outcomes).

You want to make money in healthcare - become a hospital administrator. These are the F-ng bean counters that make big salaries, tell the docs how to practice medicine, and don't have to have 10 years of post-graduate education to do it.

 

[MXLRplus]

Yes its normally less than $1, but Jared must make his standard mark up.

It appears public hospital and government staff will consume all they can, then the residuals will be sent out of state.
An Air Compressor Inspector (state) came to our shop without an appointment and he was wearing a 3M N95. So they are handing them out to non-essential state workers. Compressor inspectors arrive to tax you for your compressor(s).

I bet at least 10% will be 'lost' and go to family and friends or campaign donors, or theft.

When the public realizes that this will extend the shortage of N95 masks to critical private workers, they might not see Newsom in a favorable light. It's OK to urinate on us, we expect it. Just don't laugh at us while doing it, keep it secret like usual.

 

[MXLRplus]

Yes its normally less than $1, but Jared must make his standard mark up.

Jared Scott Fogle is still in prison. Is he running his criminal empire from his cell? Typical.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"New York City: The Javits center has changed it criteria for admission. A number of our patients are going there. The naval ship Comfort is also now taking Covid patients

2,329 Covid inpatient, 621 in ICU on vents due to Covid.

There may be neighborhood patterns/hotspots.

We will be testing all symptomatic Health Care Workers. First, they need to be well enough to leave the house. This way we can tell if they have it, then our serology tests are in development right now and that will be the next step.

Ventilators: they do require special knowledge to operate them. Some anesthesia machines can do pressure controlled ventilation, but in our very ill patients we can’t use these machines.

Field House expansions: we are working on standing up two field hospitals, the riverview terrace is being transformed, as well as bakers field. The military will be Team Rubicon is partnering with us, and we have over 200 military volunteers who are coming to our aid."