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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
You can usually find Washington Post articles on MSN. Just Google for the title or some keywords then add msn.
I'm also being hit by the WP paywall. A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients I think is the same story.
My county of 92k had 8 new infections yesterday, current total of 104, after a week of averaging just one a day. Also had our second death, a man in his 70s. Curious if the jump in cases was due to more testing, I know a few weeks ago they were running very low.
don’t you think she is also getting a lot of pressure from the 10s of thousands of people that depend on the jobs Vegas provides them?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yes, you are right. In fact, the linear projection from the last 14 days points to 117,444 deaths.
The chart below shows how these ultimate projections along with 14-day intercept and slope estimates have evolved over the last month. Prior to this the slope sometimes goes positive, so the ultimate projection are too unstable even to graph meaningfully.
From 4/10 to 4/18, projected ultimate deaths are relatively low and stable. This is a time when the NY outbreak is dominating national numbers and coming into a little more control. The uptick in recent 4 days is worrisome. It could be that a broadening of the epidemic in most states is starting to dominate the growth of deaths.
Thanks for the suggestion. This could be an interesting diagnostic to watch.
Germany vs. Italy (or France/Spain) will be an interesting source of comparative analysis in the coming months. Currently deaths per million are 63 in Germany and 415 in Italy. The number of cases are pretty similar and large numbers about 150k and about 190k.
Why is Germany different? I think the difference is one of three possibilities, though the first two are interesting but not very useful for future pandemic responses. It could be merely a difference in testing that captured all the cases in Germany and a portion in Italy. Germany had indigenous test creation capability right from the start of the outbreak. It could be a difference in typical living arrangements or normal contact that reduced the spread to older Germans. It is certainly true that the age breakdown of cases trends younger than in Italy. But most intriguing it could be the public health interventions and methods of care were more effective in Germany. One example is the ‘corona taxis’ that shuffled medical staff to the homes of infected patients. So maybe Germany hit the right balance of home vs hospital care partially by doing that.
Why is Germany different? I think the difference is one of three possibilities, though the first two are interesting but not very useful for future pandemic responses. It could be merely a difference in testing that captured all the cases in Germany and a portion in Italy. Germany had indigenous test creation capability right from the start of the outbreak. It could be a difference in typical living arrangements or normal contact that reduced the spread to older Germans. It is certainly true that the age breakdown of cases trends younger than in Italy. But most intriguing it could be the public health interventions and methods of care were more effective in Germany. One example is the ‘corona taxis’ that shuffled medical staff to the homes of infected patients. So maybe Germany hit the right balance of home vs hospital care partially by doing that.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Interesting. I hope I am wrong and the IHME model is right, but in the last few days my guess based on the numbers and graphs was that we are heading for 120K (by August or so, not by June), so maybe this way of looking at it reflects that and is not a coincidence. Hopefully I am underestimating the effects of mitigation.
(And maybe the yellow line is just making a bump up.)
Today’s official covid briefing in Belgium contained an interesting graph indicating the the high reported death numbers in Belgium are correct, validated by comparing to historical death rates. This graph can be found on page 19 of https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/default/files/Covid19/Meest recente update.pdf (graph conveniently in English), and the following 2 pages contain graphs that compares the Covid epidemic with previous epidemics. These graphs show that it is not ‘just a flu’, the death rates are far above anything seen in the past.
MXLRplus
Active Member
While interesting, the doc isn't in English. I can make out some of it since most Euro languages have similar Latin roots.
They did a co-morbidity table based on age. However, I can't tell if they corrected for natural occurences. ie - The % of hypertension rises with age, so reporting C19 mortality % needs to have that adjusted for the natural curve to see what the real effect is.
Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:
"At nyp We are at 1,994, 692 on ventilators, 92 waiting to be admitted.
Testing: Tests per hundred thousand: currently we are at 110 per hundred thousand, CDC recommends 150 per hundred thousand. We are concerned that reopening will create a surge, we are not ready to reopen yet.
NIH: released guidelines—the panel does not recommend anything for pre-exposure prophylaxis, does not recommend any agents post exposure, recommends no additional lab testing or treatment for asymptomatic or presymptomatic, no drug has been proven to be safe and effective for treatment. We need clinical trials—there is no evidence for anything at this point.
Yesterday our percentage positive was 28% of covid positive tests. That is a good sign. For healthcare workers only 1 in five is positive. And the serology testing only 2 in five are positive."
"At nyp We are at 1,994, 692 on ventilators, 92 waiting to be admitted.
Testing: Tests per hundred thousand: currently we are at 110 per hundred thousand, CDC recommends 150 per hundred thousand. We are concerned that reopening will create a surge, we are not ready to reopen yet.
NIH: released guidelines—the panel does not recommend anything for pre-exposure prophylaxis, does not recommend any agents post exposure, recommends no additional lab testing or treatment for asymptomatic or presymptomatic, no drug has been proven to be safe and effective for treatment. We need clinical trials—there is no evidence for anything at this point.
Yesterday our percentage positive was 28% of covid positive tests. That is a good sign. For healthcare workers only 1 in five is positive. And the serology testing only 2 in five are positive."
I read the WP every day online and somehow missed this. It was one of the most interesting, albeit anecdotal, reports I have read to date. In principle this could well explain numerous anomalies that have been noted in ICU and maternity settings. It also suggested that we might well have some possible explanations about the flurry of very old successful recoverers. At least six >90 year old full recoveries have been reported in my area
This does suggest high levels of precursors to cardiovascular/hematological disorders, even in people with no actual disorders. The epidemiologist in me desperately wants more data, preferable full metabolic panels +. We need a passionate search for risk factors distinguishing between non-symptomatic carriers and the various gradations of disease, including mortality. We now have more than enough data to begin this effort.
I am confident this is already happening.
For somebody who made his reputation blowing up shoddy statistics in other people's work (whose general message through many dozens of Publications has been open quotes you're jumping to conclusions close quotes), that this likely highly biased sample is taken as something else (a great and fully vetted data set in epidemiology instead of a very tentative first pass at something) is shocking. And that's before you get to the question about whether the preliminary specificity and sensitivity data for the antibody test hold up to serial probing, examination and review.
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Yes for sure the underlying biology remains to be fully clarified but I suspect this may be another manifestation of the disinhibition of the renin-angiotensin system in the context of the collapse of the ace2 receptor family and its downstream targets, which as I understand it exerts negative feedback on the renin-angiotensin system. This results in serious disinhibition of the Angiotensin signal, which has demonstrated toxicity in relationship to lung tissue in pneumonia but is also prothrombotic.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I'm skeptical about this. I think people with middle or lower income (i.e. the vast majority of casino employees) can earn more money on unemployment right now.
The CARES act added an additional $600 a week on top of the existing unemployment benefit (up to $426 a week in NV).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
No. They don't have access to her.
Anyway, what are the unions saying ?
In general people who can get unemployment would obviously sit at home than expose themselves to grave risk. But if they have no source of income and don't get unemployment - its a grave failure of the federal government.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
Yeah, in both interviews I saw the mayor kept going on and on about the workers who couldn't feed their families. Neither interviewer asked about unemployment, even Anderson Cooper who was beating her up pretty hard.
Delays in getting unemployment checks have caused real problems for workers with zero reserves and no credit. But once the checks start coming low wage earners get a raise. I read an article about a restaurant owner in Virginia whose delivery business was picking up enough to re-hire his kitchen staff, but they wouldn't come back because they made more sitting at home.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Looks like they still get WA wrong - because of uneven reporting i.e. I don't think Rt had gone down and is up again ~ 1.
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