Coronavirus

[Az_Rael]

I got a note from my physician that they can arrange for IgG antibody testing for anyone now. Quest is doing one for $55. I see you can also order one on Quest website. But no information on the exact test and its specificity etc.

Covid-19 Antibody : Antibody

The Quest test info is here: SARS-CoV-2 Serology (COVID-19) Antibody (IgG), Immunoassay Looks like it is one of these two tests?

1. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA (IgG). Instructions for use. Euroimmun; March 2020.
2. Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG [package insert]. Abbot; April 2020.

Looks like they need a 1ml specimen, so this isn't a finger prick test I take it?

Just did this today, not a finger prick, regular blood vial draw. Cost me $129 total I think.


I was sick with what I think was a (relatively) mild case early on here in CA. Had a compounding factor of playing in an orchestra where a couple of members had just been evacuated from a tour in the Wuhan area a few days before the lockdown. They were only temp screened at LAX, not quarantined. Lots of folks in the orchestra got sick after our Feb 29 concert, but no tests available at that time. I had symptoms thru early Mar, got better, then a recurrence 25 March. Couldn’t get a PCR test until April 10, and tested negative. Probably too late at that point. Hoping to maybe answer the mystery of what I had.

 

[Norbert]

All L.A. residents can now get free coronavirus tests, Garcetti says

Until now, only residents with symptoms as well as essential workers and those in institutional settings like nursing homes could be tested.

The city and county’s coronavirus testing registration website originally said that testing would be available to all L.A. County residents, but Garcetti said in his news conference that they were opening testing up only to city residents.

 

[sparcs]

All L.A. residents can now get free coronavirus tests, Garcetti says

Now roll this out in a 200 mile radius around the Fremont factory.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My conclusion: the official numbers we're seeing are artificially low because of situations like this where someone who may have the virus and really needs to know is not being tested.

Lack of testing remains a huge problem, everywhere. Hawaii's low positivity gave me hope, but massive testing is so important. I got the impression with just a 2-3% positive rate that anyone in Hawaii could get a test. Are you sure the reason she was not offered a test was because there was not one available? There are many risks to having someone COVID positive walking around in the environment. Hence the drive-thru testing.

residents are losing sight of need to socially distance and believe gornment is out of touch with reality at the moment.

Only a third of unemployment claims from early March have been handled by the state yet. This means the majority of those filing for unemployment during the crisis have yet to receive their first check. Further, with an inability to work, they are in poor position for weathering this storm.

It's really important that the government constantly and honestly communicate the reasons for social distancing, mask use, and communicate the stage of the epidemic - and be honest about under-testing. I feel like nature abhors a vacuum and if this stuff is not communicated, nonsense fills the void.

On the other hand, the gov't also needs to follow through rapidly on their end of the bargain, in spite of the enormous (and presumably overwhelming!) need.

 

[EVNow]

This won't work.

If you can't test/trace 10k people, you can never test/trace 300 Million.

Tesla should also get everyone regularly tested. If needed daily - that would be far more cheaper than closing the plant.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Just a follow up on that model from yesterday:

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

"Our COVID-19 prediction model adds the power of artificial intelligence on top of a classic infectious disease model. We developed a simulator based on the SEIR/SEIS model (Wikipedia) to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in each given country/state/region. The parameters/inputs of this simulator are then learned using machine learning techniques that attempts to minimize the error between the projected outputs and the actual results. We utilize daily deaths data reported by each state/country to forecast future deaths. After some additional validation techniques (to minimize a phenomenon called overfitting), we use the learned parameters to simulate the future and make projections."

"The goal of this project is to showcase the strengths of artificial intelligence to tackle one of the world’s most difficult problems: predict the track of a pandemic. Here, we use a pure data-driven approach by letting the machine do the learning.
We can learn more from the model than just the R0. For example, our model determined that the true mortality rate for COVID-19 in most regions in the world is less than 1%"

* Note that you can see on their website that it is just under 1% (take total deaths and divide by cases about two weeks earlier). Seems reasonable.

Maybe the remaining "it's just a flu" bros, who doubt that the mortality rate is right around 1%, will believe it, if it comes from a machine learning model? We can hope.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's that we should always trust ML.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well we passed the 61k deaths from the 2018 flu season today, congratulations America..... we're #1!

4.25% of the global population, over 27% of the deaths. Perhaps you can see how a fella might think the US response has been ineffective and irrational.

 

[dhanson865]

Typo, should be "make it simple" or "make this simple"...

 

[Daniel in SD]

Elon should build a factory in China where they don't have fascism or lockdowns.

Well we passed the 61k deaths from the 2018 flu season today, congratulations America..... we're #1!

4.25% of the global population, over 27% of the deaths. Perhaps you can see how a fella might think the US response has been ineffective and irrational.

I can agree with you on that!

 

[eevee-fan]

Just a follow up on that model from yesterday:

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

"Our COVID-19 prediction model adds the power of artificial intelligence on top of a classic infectious disease model. We developed a simulator based on the SEIR/SEIS model (Wikipedia) to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in each given country/state/region. The parameters/inputs of this simulator are then learned using machine learning techniques that attempts to minimize the error between the projected outputs and the actual results. We utilize daily deaths data reported by each state/country to forecast future deaths. After some additional validation techniques (to minimize a phenomenon called overfitting), we use the learned parameters to simulate the future and make projections."

"The goal of this project is to showcase the strengths of artificial intelligence to tackle one of the world’s most difficult problems: predict the track of a pandemic. Here, we use a pure data-driven approach by letting the machine do the learning.
We can learn more from the model than just the R0. For example, our model determined that the true mortality rate for COVID-19 in most regions in the world is less than 1%"

* Note that you can see on their website that it is just under 1% (take total deaths and divide by cases about two weeks earlier). Seems reasonable.

Maybe the remaining "it's just a flu" bros, who doubt that the mortality rate is right around 1%, will believe it, if it comes from a machine learning model? We can hope.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's that we should always trust ML.

If I were an evil AI, like SKyNet, I would tell the humans that the mortality rate is really low and then sit back and wait. Of course, for computers, counting in milliseconds would mean a lot of waiting.

 

[EVNow]

Typo, should be "make it simple" or "make this simple"...

But asking people to wear pants in fascist

 

[EVNow]

Am I interpreting the remdesivir study data correctly?

Mortality rate of 8.0 vs 11.6 on the placebo.

So if this all pans out it has the potential to reduce IFR from 1.0 to 0.7 ?

People on Covid19 sub-reddit aren't too happy about this. They think of this as more of a PR thing.

Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19 : COVID19

 

[renim]

It all points to an outbreak being much easier to handle at a low level.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...linked-to-deadly-cruises-20200415-p54k0x.html

Left to right, hot to cold
WA, NT, SA & Qld
Per yesterday, 18 deaths total, probably at least half due to cruise ships

Yes, early action works best. But WA's response has been a marvel to behold ( from Qld)

 

[lascavarian]

People on Covid19 sub-reddit aren't too happy about this. They think of this as more of a PR thing.

Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19 : COVID19

I view this as a big deal. Most drug trials can use Remdesivir as the control arm instead of placebo. This improves enrollment in studies and moves things along. A well done study that establishes a level of efficacy even if minor is a an important step.

There will be unhappy folks however. If you have a candidate for trial, now you have to supply ($$) Remdesivir for your control arm rather than a placebo so costs probably go up. On the other hand enrollment probably goes easier so maybe a push.

 

[EVNow]

There will be unhappy folks however. If you have a candidate for trial, now you have to supply ($$) Remdesivir for your control arm rather than a placebo so costs probably go up. On the other hand enrollment probably goes easier so maybe a push.

I don't think companies would be worries about costs at this point. Risk is well worth it if you can sell a billion doses to all the governments.

 

[EVNow]

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...linked-to-deadly-cruises-20200415-p54k0x.html

View attachment 537333
Left to right, hot to cold
WA, NT, SA & Qld
Per yesterday, 18 deaths total, probably at least half due to cruise ships

Yes, early action works best. But WA's response has been a marvel to behold ( from Qld)

Australia has 4 deaths per million population.

Countries with less than 4 deaths / million include ... Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Iraq. And ofcourse China & India. Really interested in figuring out what countries like Thailand (one of the first infected outside China), Iraq (!) and Malaysia did.

It definitely seems to affect developing countries less. Not all of that can be written off as inadequate testing and counting of Covid related deaths.

 

[azaz]

Elon Musk Calls Coronavirus Shelter-In-Place Orders “Fascist” As He Demands To Reopen The US

Full Elon quotes from today.
What an out of touch clown. The vast majority of Americans are not comfortable going our yet. Polling for a lockdown remains very high. This idea that people are foaming at the mouth to return to work is so dumb

What he seems to push for is the Sweden approach which has no forced stay at home order but still has crippling economic activity because people are just not going to restaurants and movie theaters. Sweden’s reward is a worse death rate than neighboring countries without any real economic benefits.

he’s also so out of touch because he doesn’t understand that without a government stay at home order employees with an at risk household member would still be forced to come to work. this is also why at least in nyc there is a clear distinction between wealthier areas that work white collar jobs and were able to start working from home early. not everyone has that opportunity.

 

[ZeApelido]

After months of not paying attention to Covid19, folks in investor thread suddenly care an have strong opinions that Fremont should open next week (coinciding with dear Elons pouting).

What are your thoughts on when it will be reasonable to open up Fremont?

 

[azaz]

After months of not paying attention to Covid19, folks in investor thread suddenly care an have strong opinions that Fremont should open next week (coinciding with dear Elons pouting).

What are your thoughts on when it will be reasonable to open up Fremont?

the investor thread has just become overrun with Musk fanboys that hold basically no positions besides whatever Musk is saying at a given time.

mid May seems reasonable for Fremont to open as long as Georgia and Texas go well.

 

[PhaseWhite]

He REALLY wants that stock grant, and apparently he is concerned about how a delay in reopening the factory might affect that. Though I thought it was nearly a sure thing at this point...I’m going with this poorly researched theory.

Just trying to come up with a rational explanation for why he is derping so hard the last few weeks. He has just been so obviously wrong, over and over again.

View attachment 537010

Derp...derpity derp derp.

Does he realize this is not a “choice” we have to make? We can open the economy AND eliminate the virus. I am not sure why he just wants to give up.

It’s like a competition to be dumber than Trump.

Isn’t it obvious he’s worried about the pending disaster in Q2 financials. I really don’t think this is about his stock. It’s about his baby (Tesla)