Coronavirus

[Norbert]

On the flip side, Michael Osterholm (The director of CIDRAP, author and an infectious disease epidemiologist), said in one of his latest podcasts that between 5%-15% of the U.S. has been infected, so maybe IFR will come in at about 0.3%.
He’s one of the leading experts I’ve been listening to, since he did that first interview on Joe Rogan.

So do you want to defend his view, or do you want me to look up his reasoning?

Does he have doubts that New York State's infection level is in fact around 13%, as a serology test reported by Cuomo found? That test was a short while ago, but the daily numbers since then have decreased in NYS, so I doubt it has increased by more than a few percent.

Yet death numbers in New York State (not just NY City) are 5 times higher per capita than the US average.
United States Coronavirus: 1,666,736 Cases and 98,673 Deaths - Worldometer
How would that compute, if the rest of the US has a similar infection level? I think it doesn't. You would have to assume that the IFR can vary by 5x, but it would be the first time I hear that from an expert. And there is no reason, as far as I know, to assume that the IFR in NYS is much higher than elsewhere, let alone by 5x. ( Or more than 5x, since it would have to average out.)

 

[TespaceX]

It is quite obvious that you have a limited understanding of healthcare in general.

Didn't realize you were a MD, PhD, MPH.

 

[scottf200]

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...ative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths

 

[lascavarian]

The insult and then the censor.....playing right by the book.

Awe, you almost got it. So close. You just don’t see it do you.

 

[scottf200]

Coronavirus tracked: has your country’s epidemic peaked? | Free to read | Financial Times

In google flights you can go from São Paulo BR to many places still.

 

[dfwatt]

Coronavirus tracked: has your country’s epidemic peaked? | Free to read | Financial Times

Scary to contemplate that this is what will happen to countries with disorganized Central Administration, high levels of poverty, crowded urban areas where social distancing is impossible due to the overcrowded living situations of poor people, and easily overwhelmed Public Health systems with minimal high technology and inpatient capacity. Of course, these contingencies appear to apply to much of the third world. The mortality there maybe simply staggering.

 

[alseT Motors]

Its a shame that we have more technology than when the last pandemic occurred and because those in charge want to take U.S. back we have failed to learn the lessons of our past. Even the lessons of success from other parts of the world { ie South Korea}. Look at what quarantine and wearing masks resulted in after the last pandemic 100 years ago{read the first link below} and currently in South Korea. All the fear that their world's coming to an end didn't happen. At some point their/our world is going to end, nothing in this world lasts forever. In the meantime can we all look back at how this discussion started with the link to the Johns Hopkins Corona virus map. We are a long way from the January numbers on the Johns Hopkins Corona virus map with comparisons to the Flu beginning this discussion. There is a lot more to learn about this virus and hopefully most of us will not have to learn it the hard way. I have had it, was hospitalized, and still recovering. That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will be done. So there is nothing new under the sun. The nature of humans is generally consistent throughout history. Its up to us to learn and grow from that fact, lest we wallow in most of the mistakes that should be learned from others failures. No one is perfect but the consensus of Science/ Facts/History/experts/professionals have proven the critics wrong. Be a critical thinker, you will be better off. Science/ Facts/History/experts/professionals, that's why even though he's not perfect Elon has done so many things right in this world. This virus is not going to kill Tesla. Important as it is why are we allowing the virus to disrupt the unity that most of us have. The main purpose as enthusiasts is to improve Tesla and its goals.

Virus-afflicted 2020 looks like 1918 despite science's march
8 more sailors aboard US ship test positive a 2nd time

 

[RandomJohnny]

Didn't realize you were a MD, PhD, MPH.

Would it matter to you how many doctorates I have? Would you even believe me? Would you believe me if I told you about my work in the industry or regulatory?

I've said this before and I will say it again. Anyone can come on here and say they have some degrees and fool the sheep with some scientific talk. Although I am highly educated and have a high level of insight from working in both the public and private sector it doesn't matter. For one, the multiple doctorates I have are pretty specific and there are literally so few with the combination (much less than the MD, PhD combo) it jeopardizes my privacy. Secondly, and most importantly, it does not matter. Either you can think critically or you can't and it has really nothing to do with my education or professional experience. Those experiences only validated what anyone should be able to see. Hell, I don't even put my degrees after my name anymore. Science and critical thought are open to everyone. This is why Elon lands rockets. You all don't need any degrees or a certain professional experience to understand the healthcare industry and stockholm syndrome.

Ofcourse, I know you were being sarcastic with your comment implying that I don't know what I'm talking about. I really don't care. In fact, I rarely ever tell people I interact with in the real world my education level or experience. To me it is such a failure of society to place such importance on a degree. It is just jumping thru a hoop while being indoctrinated to believe a certain way. You should be wary of anyone who touts their degrees.

 

[Christine69420]

With the relatively small numbers involved in the study, that's my view too: Another study is needed to verify the implications of the NYU study. In this second study, only give to patients who are early in the disease progression and include zinc. Compare to a control arm where no HCQ is involved. That's the study I want to see.

Could this trial reported by the BBC be useful?

A trial is under way to see whether the anti-malarial drug could prevent Covid-19. More than 40,000 healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America who are in contact with patients with the disease will be given the drug as part of the trial.​

Source: Trump drug 'raises death risk in Covid patients'

Unfortunately the Beeb does not link to it's source on this trial.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Do you live on planet earth? Are you capable of doing any research on your own? You seem clueless about alot.

This is clear evidence of the old psychoanalytic maxim that projection is a primitive defense and is more typically associated with the far end the character disorder spectrum. This means stuff like schizoid, narcissistic, sociopathic, borderline, paranoid, and other severe forms of character disorder. There's been debate about whether projection is necessarily diagnostic of that end of the personality Spectrum, but your posts which are full of projection, seem to be evidence for the default position in classic literature. At least you are making a contribution to the debate and to the body of scientific literature. Congratulations random Johnny! I took you off ignore just to see if it was you that was trolling The Forum. Sure enough it was you. Back on ignore. Good luck random Johnny. I hope you get a good therapist.

Maybe some hypocrite spray for the wanna be physician Watt (ie, Shrink)...here is what he had to say to GFernandes:

You really are clueless about what constitutes adequate scientific data. Clueless. And like some other people on the forum who are simply intoxicated with their own ideological Notions, no amount of contravening data gives you pause or makes you re-examine your assumptions.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The corona thread used to be a place where you could find useful information. Now it’s just of place where people exchange insults. If the five or six culprits - you know who you are - don’t end the personal attacks and insults, the hammer will come down.

 

[RobStark]

Coronavirus tracked: has your country’s epidemic peaked? | Free to read | Financial Times

Left-wing populist Mexican President AMLO says Roman Catholic amulets and imagery will protect him from Coronavirus.

 

[GFernandes]

So do you want to defend his view, or do you want me to look up his reasoning?

Does he have doubts that New York State's infection level is in fact around 13%, as a serology test reported by Cuomo found? That test was a short while ago, but the daily numbers since then have decreased in NYS, so I doubt it has increased by more than a few percent.

Yet death numbers in New York State (not just NY City) are 5 times higher per capita than the US average.
United States Coronavirus: 1,666,736 Cases and 98,673 Deaths - Worldometer
How would that compute, if the rest of the US has a similar infection level? I think it doesn't. You would have to assume that the IFR can vary by 5x, but it would be the first time I hear that from an expert. And there is no reason, as far as I know, to assume that the IFR in NYS is much higher than elsewhere, let alone by 5x.

Maybe some hypocrite spray for the wanna be physician Watt (ie, Shrink)...here is what he had to say to GFernandes:

I couldn’t care less for what he says, it’s the internet after all. Sorry if my posts are not easy to understand, I can easily speak English but writing is more complex.

I changed my ideology on this virus many times: I have family in China, so I had the fear everybody in western world has way before. I followed all the details. We don’t like the politics there so I also followed all the theories. I fell for the videos of people dropping down randomly on the street. I was scarred.

the fear started to pass when I realized this is controllable and if China can handle it so does the rest of the world.

I started to think that maybe this is not as scary as we initially thought.

A period of time passed until the virus hit Portugal. When my business got shut down from one day to the other for emergency status I got a panic attack. I was shaking and crying in front of my wife. Did I downplay this virus and put our business and health on the line??? From that point on I started to research on everything possible for many hours a day.

I started to calm down again when looking at mortality numbers and serologic tests. I started to look into this. I started to actually look into what is influenza and how deadly it is. I realized the burden we are having in society is not higher than a bad influenza year. Except that now we introduced an exogenous factor with very unpredictable effects. Except that now , just like in China/HK , we have this matter politicized and we have people spreading fear while on the comfort of their homes with their guaranteed state salary. In Portugal it’s easy to see the classes spreading fear: public teachers and public doctors. And I have a mother and a father in those two fields.

don’t tell me I can’t change my ideology. If I see proof that I’m on the wrong I will change it.

---

Mod: edited to remove personal attacks. Last warning.

 

[MXLRplus]

We have now increased to 54.8% COVID victims identifying as Latino in the largest US state:

Race Ethnicity

Yet, no Spanish language COVID warnings or mitigation programs are in place. It's another of our governor's dirty-little-secrets much like the nursing home super-spreader events in California that he deliberately ignored in order to spread the disease, or so it appears. I find it hard to believe he did not follow National or California news in March and April.

It almost seems the purpose of C19 programs in California is to destroy economic health and physical health concurrently.

 

[JRP3]

This is an odd twist:

Scientists involved in one of the world's leading studies into finding a vaccine for the coronavirus say there is currently only a 50% chance of success because the number of people in Britain with the virus is falling too quickly.

Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

 

[bkp_duke]

This is an odd twist:



Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

Recruit from Brazil and Mexico, problem solved.

 

[jbcarioca]

In google flights you can go from São Paulo BR to many places still.

Google is misleading.
In fact there are two(2) nonstop flights from GRU to the US:
Latam 3xweek to MIA and United daily to IAH.
That is it!
There are countless options with connections.
Fly to any of the myriad flights between GRU and Europe, then to the US destination of choice.
In schedule AA is shown to begin flying between GRU and MIA among others, in early June. Nobody really expects that to happen. Further, actual flights presently shown sometimes do not happen. Still further, depending on your passport, residence, ago, physical condition etc you actually might not be able to fly.

Between Brazil and US the most way today seems to be flying Copa to Panama City and connecting. Doing so provides the delightful experience of >12 hours in a 737.

Worldwide air travel at the present time is uncertain at best.

 

[scottf200]

Google is misleading.
In fact there are two(2) nonstop flights from GRU to the US:
Latam 3xweek to MIA and United daily to IAH.
That is it!
There are countless options with connections.
...

Point is that if you are in Brazil with the means you can be positive (asymptomatic) and fly wherever you want and may infect others in the USA or wherever they want to go.
Meaning if you are desperate due to lack of resources (hospitals, staff, devices, etc) people may leave.

 

[jbcarioca]

Point is that if you are in Brazil with the means you can be positive (asymptomatic) and fly wherever you want and may infect others in the USA or wherever they want to go.
Meaning if you are desperate due to lack of resources (hospitals, staff, devices, etc) people may leave.

I understand the point, but it really si not quite accurate. Keep in mind that the COVID-19 cases in Brazil came form the US. To suggest that the US is protecting itself is laughable. Protection requires comprehensive testing and aggressive case epidemiology.

Neither Brazil nor the US has either of those.

Flying in Brazil, where possible does include quite comprehensive evaluation prior to flight. Indeed poor people suffer. Rich ones do not. The statistics everywhere indicate that. Poor people do not fly much.

From a statistical perspective flying is less risky than many other activities. Partly that is because aircraft filtration has been upgraded, aircraft interiors are sterilized, crews and passengers are screened and food service has been curtailed/modified. Almost all respectable airlines are doing those things.

I am not suggesting air travel is risk free, far from it. I am stating that no significant international airline neglects protection against viral spread today. That said I will not travel in the immediate future.

FWIW, I normally fly 12-15 international round trip per year. I have now been on the ground for the longest period in my adult life. I admit it, I'm stir-crazy!

For anybody who deigns to travel to Brazil I recommend GOL or Latam, both of which are assiduous regarding cleanliness. Given the current situation were i to travel to the US I'd probably choose either Lufthansa or KLM via EU unless Latam would fly non-stop from GIG.

For all of us, though, air travel is no longer the risk it was in December and January. Now politics are dominating science.

 

[jerry33]

I've taken a regimen of polyphenols + concentrated fish oil for years.

I'm not keen on the mercury in fish. My brain is bad enough without it.