Coronavirus

[dc_h]

Do you mean to say that the CDC does not have rapid and modern communications?
I guess real time voice is well over 100 years old. But I think they have email and video conferencing.

Maybe you mean this

I would guess it means they don’t have recent math and comp sci kids with python skills tracking real data. They are dependent on 3rd parties for good data and likely may also have antiquated tracking process for testing with pharma. The defunding after 6 years of sequester and then again the last three years leaves them 15 years behind when tech is completely upended in that time.

 

[bkp_duke]

I would guess it means they don’t have recent math and comp sci kids with python skills tracking real data. They are dependent on 3rd parties for good data and likely may also have antiquated tracking process for testing with pharma. The defunding after 6 years of sequester and then again the last three years leaves them 15 years behind when tech is completely upended in that time.

It's worse than that, IMO. This is just one more example of real life-costing consequences of decades of failures of our educational system. There are massive systematic problems with how we educate our young in this country that we are reaping the consequences of now. Shortfalls in people to fill positions that depend upon science and technology training. College graduates that have "chosen" majors for which there is no job for (you can only have so many historians, etc.).

Our country needs a complete overhaul to remain competitive. Sadly, I fear that even the current crises are not enough to jump start that process.

 

[Norbert]

This thread was hijacked by the liberal elitist many months ago.
You are not getting balanced information here.

Excuse me I think what you really want is T's claims to be portrayed in a better light. However, as has become clear over time, most of his claims are not designed to be part of a balanced evaluation. They are designed to fire up his base in a partisan political fight in which he seeks "dominance", and their rejection as such becomes a political fight of its own. Your post is part of such a partisan fight and doesn't even attempt to make a contribution that could be part of some "balance".

 

[Causalien]

I have no idea what you're talking about here. Then again, neither do you. The notion of "secret or confidential" sources in relationship to biological science is a contradiction in terms. There is no evidence that significant numbers of people are routinely reinfected. That's just not true.

Revealing Souces from doctors in China has the effect of getting them "disappeared"

 

[TEG]

Here’s why tear gas could worsen symptoms of coronavirus — and prompt more spread

 

[N5329K]

You are not getting balanced information here.

Try RT. You’ll find a lot more to like there.
Robin

 

[Daniel in SD]

Try RT. You’ll find a lot more to like there.
Robin

Unfortunately Putin is also part of the liberal elitist conspiracy!

 

[eevee-fan]

Another video talking about excess death.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Wow, @vitalFunk got his account deleted in record time (I guess it was the slightly veiled threat to those of us using our real names?).
It is crazy how many people view a global pandemic through the lens of American politics.

I am starting to wonder if @TheTalkingMule was right all along. With just about everything reopening over the last month and no real sign of renewed exponential growth in cases I'm starting to question my "observed reality"! (Coronavirus)
I'm still playing it safe for another couple months though.

 

[dhanson865]

US is approaching 2 million confirmed cases.

Brazil is less than a week away from taking the number 2 spot by total deaths, they are already number 2 by confirmed cases.

You have to wonder why India isn't reporting many deaths yet.

 

[linux-works]

can't confirm if this is a true story or not - seems like it could be.

if its true, then we are actively trying to cause people to catch the virus.

just read:

Law Enforcement Seizes Masks Meant To Protect Anti-Racist Protesters From COVID-19

Law Enforcement Seizes Masks Meant To Protect Anti-Racist Protesters From COVID-19 | HuffPost

not only is this administration trying to BS by calling it 'just a flu', when they finally realize its 'weapons grade' virus, well, the idea went off in their tiny skulls: 'lets try to make sure that these masks never reach the protesters, so maybe they'll all get sick and die soon'.

protesters have to put up with chemical weapons AND covid, and even masks that would have helped are being DENIED by our great leadership.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Brazil is less than a week away from taking the number 2 spot by total deaths, they are already number 2 by confirmed cases.

With about a 2/3rds positive percentage!

You have to wonder why India isn't reporting many deaths yet.

Lockdowns work. I think they've had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world other than Wuhan, China. Unfortunately that level of countrywide lockdown Is not sustainable and still not enough to stop the spread, though it has bought time to prepare for the deluge of cases.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You have to wonder why India isn't reporting many deaths yet.

View attachment 548161

View attachment 548162

Their test to death ratio is quite good. I heard from a friend who recently moved from India that their counting of deaths is not all that good though. So it may be hard to say whether ratio is really around 1000.

However, if they can maintain a daily test to death ratio of over 1000 (daily tests / daily deaths), they have some hope of limiting their outbreak (it is dropping below that, which is not a great sign). That being said, it is a very large country, so you have to be careful to apply this ratio on a regional basis. Local outbreaks could become extremely bad if testing is not as readily available in those areas.

Would be great if they could scale their capacity to over 3000 tests per death.

With just about everything reopening over the last month and no real sign of renewed exponential growth in cases I'm starting to question my "observed reality"!

Our test to death ratio is now about 450. This is starting to be respectable. It’s unclear whether that will be sufficient to snub Rt enough that continuing increase in capacity will be able to outpace case growth. On one hand, the increasing level of testing relative to cases continues to exert increasing pressure on the virus. On the other hand, increased reopening will result in increasing numbers of cases.

I think that if we had very strict mask wearing policies *everywhere* and other public health interventions solidly in place, I think we could relatively easily be successful with current case levels (they will continue to drop and the testing will further suppress them as the testing becomes even more significant relative to the number of infections). Unfortunately we don’t have that!

Right now, we probably have about 4 tests per infection (assuming 1% IFR), to test close contacts (we have about 20 tests per case). That seems like it could be just enough, especially if we assumed really close contacts of known cases were infected. There is still the question about what the multiplier is to actual cases right now...it is possible it is as low as 2 to 3x now (it used to be as high as 10x, probably). These numbers suggest the ratio is currently about 4x (~800 deaths per day right now, implies about 80k cases per day, and we’re finding about 20k). Obviously untracked cases are a big problem, which is why we’d definitely like more test capacity right now. But a certain number of these are family contacts, which should die out (not literally, hopefully).

I think if we are seeing continued case decline in most locations in two weeks, we may well be on the way to success here. It will be a long drawn out “success” with a lot of unnecessary deaths, relative to the optimal solution, but would be better than a huge second wave.

It would certainly help if everyone wore their masks and face shields and gloves, though.

 

[Causalien]

Wow, @vitalFunk got his account deleted in record time (I guess it was the slightly veiled threat to those of us using our real names?).
It is crazy how many people view a global pandemic through the lens of American politics.

I am starting to wonder if @TheTalkingMule was right all along. With just about everything reopening over the last month and no real sign of renewed exponential growth in cases I'm starting to question my "observed reality"! (Coronavirus)
I'm still playing it safe for another couple months though.

Ya wow. Glad I went away long enough to skip meeting that person.

In any case, just wait. There has been no Pandemic without a second wave. Let's watch Australia to get a clue of what's coming.

 

[deonb]

Wow, @vitalFunk got his account deleted in record time (I guess it was the slightly veiled threat to those of us using our real names?)

Wow! I never realized our mods were quite this powerful:

 

[jerry33]

It's worse than that, IMO. This is just one more example of real life-costing consequences of decades of failures of our educational system. There are massive systematic problems with how we educate our young in this country that we are reaping the consequences of now. Shortfalls in people to fill positions that depend upon science and technology training. College graduates that have "chosen" majors for which there is no job for (you can only have so many historians, etc.).

Our country needs a complete overhaul to remain competitive. Sadly, I fear that even the current crises are not enough to jump start that process.

The issue is the jock culture and the emphasis placed on sports. Basically it teaches that studying is only for a few nerds, might makes right, and because you can be a success with sports you don't actually have to learn anything--especially if you come from a wealth family where connections and influence can set you up for life. (I'm sure everyone can pick at least one real life example.) The reason many IT positions are filled by those from India is because in India if you want to play sports you have to pay for it because there is no school supported sports and people actually study. (India does have other problems though.) In Southeast Asian countries, sports is a part of school life, but there are trimesters and longer total school hours so sports doesn't cut into the amount of time actually learning things (there are other cultural reasons as well). As long as sport celebrities are idolized more than scientists and engineers, there's little chance the U.S. will improve education. As a child I wanted to be either a scientist or an engineer, but there was zero guidance in what I had to do to achieve that. It took the next thirty years and night school to get to where I am now--which is a long way from where I desired to be.

 

[dc_h]

Wow, @vitalFunk got his account deleted in record time (I guess it was the slightly veiled threat to those of us using our real names?).
It is crazy how many people view a global pandemic through the lens of American politics.

I am starting to wonder if @TheTalkingMule was right all along. With just about everything reopening over the last month and no real sign of renewed exponential growth in cases I'm starting to question my "observed reality"! (Coronavirus)
I'm still playing it safe for another couple months though.

Exposure to light is a problem for viruses. We will see what happens this fall and if there is a rebound. Brazil is a cautionary tale on the southern side of the world. We are also still seeing a lot of cases, even in the summer, but treatment is much better and the density, with most of the cases in a few urban centers (NY at 50%) is over, which makes it less dramatic. I think we will have a rebound, but we will be desensitized and more willing to accept flu deaths at 2-5x recent years as part of a new normal.
It's all conjecture at this point, but past events have played out with rebounds. A vaccine would be a game changer, but is a long shot for the front half of the flu season.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Brazil is a cautionary tale on the southern side of the world.

Brazil lies almost entirely in the tropics. Sunrise and sunset vary little through the year. Curitiba (pop. 1.7m) is the only major city outside the tropics, and even it is closer to the equator than Miami.

Brazil is a cautionary tale of bad leadership.

 

[ggr]

Yahoo Finance often has a small banner with updates about Covid-19. Two days ago I noticed that I couldn't reconcile the numbers with what I thought I remembered. So I wrote down the numbers (as at 6:30 PDT Weds 3rd): 1,823,414 +22,244 for the US. What twigged me was that I remembered (I thought) that the first two digits of the US total had been 1.6m ish at the beginning of the week.

Yesterday (again I should have taken a screenshot) the figures were clearly wrong; there was an extra digit on the total, and no "+xxx" at all. So I ignored it.

Today:

So it's up over 40,000 in two days, but just +2...

Fishy.

 

[bkp_duke]

Coroners are playing catch up in hot zones like NYC. Cases that were presumed COVID-19 might be having the death certs finally completed.

Also, areas with protests have had reduced staffing, so this might just be a clerk catching up on paperwork that has piled up over the past week+.