Coronavirus

[wdolson]

It's official now, more Covid 19 deaths in the US in 2021 than there were in 2020. (not the final numbers for 2021 because they will revise, but at least it now covers the entire year).

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

View attachment 750999

The biggest death peak in the entire pandemic was in January 2021. Almost all those people were infected in 2020 and some had probably been in the hospital for a few months. Some people lingered a long time in the hospital.

 

[scottf200]

"To help overburdened hospitals around the country, 13,000 members of the National Guard have been activated in 48 states to support the COVID-19 response"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477242702978850816

 

[dhanson865]

The biggest death peak in the entire pandemic was in January 2021. Almost all those people were infected in 2020 and some had probably been in the hospital for a few months. Some people lingered a long time in the hospital.

Jan 11th 2021 was the 7 day moving average peak for cases and Jan 16th was the 7 day moving average peak for deaths. But the center of the cases wave was Late Dec 2020 (deaths center of wave was almost exactly the peak). So the death wave is shifted 5-15 days and is a factor but the peak of that wave being in 2021 is also a significant factor.

We haven't hit either peak for the last wave of 2021 / first wave of 2022 (cases or deaths) so we can wait a few weeks and revisit if you would like an apples to apples comparison shifted by a month (like feb1 2020 to Jan 31 2021 and Feb 1 2021 to Jan 31 2022). Or we could revisit at the end of Feb if you want to see both shoulders of the wave and decide on an accurate center + peak.

plenty of unknowns on the current wave. But I don't think shifting the period a month will make 2020 beat 2021.

If you want to take seasonality out of it Running from July 1 2020 to June 30 2021 and July 1 2021 to June 30 2022 would do that the best but we've got a long way to go for that comparison.

That slots it up into

* wave 1 in the 2019/2020 seasons
* waves 2, 3, and 4 in the 2020/2021 seasons
* waves 5, 6, and 7 in the 2021/2021 seasons (with 6 underway and 7 yet to come).

The big advantage of a June/July cusp is that there are very little cases compared to the winter load so the cases vs death shift effect is minimized.

Probably worth looking at these comparisons again after Jan 31, Feb 28, and June 30th.

 

[scottf200]

This doesn't seem like a great start to 2022 and pre the New Year parties impact.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hospitalizations

On this page, we provide daily-updated data on hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19. Our hospital & ICU data is collected from official sources and collated by Our World in Data. The complete list of country-by-country sources is available on GitHub.

ourworldindata.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477881499898855425

 

[madodel]

Need COVID test? Don’t call 911 or go to emergency room, officials urge as cases surge

This is the Miami Herald article but just saw essentially the same story about local EMS services being overwhelmed with people calling to get COVID tests. They are asking that unless you have serious symptoms not to take COVID tests because there aren't enough available and whatever you do don't call 911 or local EMS to try to get tests.

 

[Jeff N]

From a NYC hospital doc describing how things are like now and how it differs from the huge outbreak in March 2020.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478217081959108614

Hospitalizations for Covid rise sharply in New York State, nearing last winter’s peak.

In New York City, more than 4,500 people were hospitalized, exceeding last winter’s peak. Unvaccinated people are still far more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated ones.

www.nytimes.com

 

[TespaceX]

We’re at least two years into this pandemic.

I can’t believe the testing situation is still exactly the same as it was in the beginning. Maybe even worse. In my larger metro region, there’s no place to buy or beg for rapid tests right now. People in my area are buying the rapid tests on Craigslist for $80 per test. Also, an appointment for a PCR test from a hospital, non-airport clinic, or drive-through community testing location is at least 7 days out. Once you arrive at your appointment time, the wait time in line is about 4 hours because they’re always over scheduling.

What kind of first-world country do we live in?

 

[madodel]

We’re at least two years into this pandemic.

I can’t believe the testing situation is still exactly the same as it was in the beginning. Maybe even worse. In my larger metro region, there’s no place to buy or beg for rapid tests right now. People in my area are buying the rapid tests on Craigslist for $80 per test. Also, an appointment for a PCR test from a hospital, non-airport clinic, or drive-through community testing location is at least 7 days out. Once you arrive at your appointment time, the wait time in line is about 4 hours because they’re always over scheduling.

What kind of first-world country do we live in?

A capitalist one. The market for testing waned quite a bit after the last wave crested. The focus was on vaccination. No one wanted to be stuck with old COVID tests so the supply dried up as the tests were diverted elsewhere. Now people are begging for tests. Supply and demand. The Biden administration should have seen this coming and stockpiled tests and masks.

 

[bkp_duke]

A capitalist one. The market for testing waned quite a bit after the last wave crested. The focus was on vaccination. No one wanted to be stuck with old COVID tests so the supply dried up as the tests were diverted elsewhere. Now people are begging for tests. Supply and demand. The Biden administration should have seen this coming and stockpiled tests and masks.

My friend and neighbor is a high-up exec for one of the test makers (Gen-Mark - bought by Roche). Your assumption is 100% wrong. This company and every other testing company have continued to ramp up and crank out tests as quickly as possible, even 2 years into the pandemic.

Have you looked at the cases for Omicron? The peak currently is 2X the highest we saw in Jan of 2020. Demand is simply outstripping the ability to produce both antigen tests and PCR tests.

PCRs take a good bit of time to run, and have relatively complex chemical mixtures. Antigen tests are literally antibodies strapped to a stick that glow when the virus bound to them. BOTH of these are "biologics", not some stupid simple chemical test. Biologics are difficult to produce in volume with high quality control. The antibodies for the antigen test literally take a lot of time to create, and the PCR tests themselves take a lot of time to run.

You think it's bad here, you really don't want to try to obtain a test outside of this "capitalist" market. I have employees in 4 countries at least with concerning symptoms (fortunately these are young people), there are ZERO tests to be obtained there, even on the "grey" market.

 

[Doggydogworld]

My friend and neighbor is a high-up exec for one of the test makers (Gen-Mark - bought by Roche). Your assumption is 100% wrong. This company and every other testing company have continued to ramp up and crank out tests as quickly as possible, even 2 years into the pandemic.

Have you looked at the cases for Omicron? The peak currently is 2X the highest we saw in Jan of 2020. Demand is simply outstripping the ability to produce both antigen tests and PCR tests.

PCRs take a good bit of time to run, and have relatively complex chemical mixtures. Antigen tests are literally antibodies strapped to a stick that glow when the virus bound to them. BOTH of these are "biologics", not some stupid simple chemical test. Biologics are difficult to produce in volume with high quality control. The antibodies for the antigen test literally take a lot of time to create, and the PCR tests themselves take a lot of time to run.

You think it's bad here, you really don't want to try to obtain a test outside of this "capitalist" market. I have employees in 4 countries at least with concerning symptoms (fortunately these are young people), there are ZERO tests to be obtained there, even on the "grey" market.

China tested all 9 million residents of Qingdao in a single week over a year ago.

 

[bkp_duke]

China tested all 9 million residents of Qingdao in a single week over a year ago.

Multiplex PCR, not individuals.

Basically, think of taking 100 samples, mixing them, and running one test. That tells you if there is a single positive in any of those 100. If not, move on and repeat. If there is, re-divide and retest.

It's a cheaper, more efficient method of testing populations, but it is not viable when:
1) virus is at pandemic or endemic levels (i.e. this works with 1% infection rates and lower)
2) need individual by individual testing


Trust me, China didn't actually use 9 million individual tests during that time. Probably 1/100th of that.

 

[madodel]

My friend and neighbor is a high-up exec for one of the test makers (Gen-Mark - bought by Roche). Your assumption is 100% wrong. This company and every other testing company have continued to ramp up and crank out tests as quickly as possible, even 2 years into the pandemic.

Have you looked at the cases for Omicron? The peak currently is 2X the highest we saw in Jan of 2020. Demand is simply outstripping the ability to produce both antigen tests and PCR tests.

PCRs take a good bit of time to run, and have relatively complex chemical mixtures. Antigen tests are literally antibodies strapped to a stick that glow when the virus bound to them. BOTH of these are "biologics", not some stupid simple chemical test. Biologics are difficult to produce in volume with high quality control. The antibodies for the antigen test literally take a lot of time to create, and the PCR tests themselves take a lot of time to run.

You think it's bad here, you really don't want to try to obtain a test outside of this "capitalist" market. I have employees in 4 countries at least with concerning symptoms (fortunately these are young people), there are ZERO tests to be obtained there, even on the "grey" market.

So I'm 100% wrong? This is not a capitalist country? This is not a supply and demand problem? Had we not had a band of morons running this country in 2020 we'd have had a national stockpile of things like masks and tests. I don't know about other countries, but Germany has been pretty much on top of this and able to handle testing from the beginning. And they don't allow cloth "masks". Only medical grade. And people have no problem finding them. Had the Biden (really the Trump) administration offered to fund expansion rather than just relying on the free market entirely, we'd be in a much better situation now. There are things that government can get done better, albeit with well paid off corporations. This is very demonstrably one of them.

 

[bkp_duke]

So I'm 100% wrong? This is not a capitalist country? This is not a supply and demand problem? Had we not had a band of morons running this country in 2020 we'd have had a national stockpile of things like masks and tests. I don't know about other countries, but Germany has been pretty much on top of this and able to handle testing from the beginning. And they don't allow cloth "masks". Only medical grade. And people have no problem finding them. Had the Biden (really the Trump) administration offered to fund expansion rather than just relying on the free market entirely, we'd be in a much better situation now. There are things that government can get done better, albeit with well paid off corporations. This is very demonstrably one of them.

Yeah, on this point, you are flat out wrong. And don't try to split hairs and pick some rice grain of truth in a tangential argument to support your overall argument that "capitalism is bad for medicine" You attributed a shortage of something during an unprecedented demand, so that you can then make a push for a socialist agenda, and are thereby making this political and completely ignoring the facts.

FACT: as Elon said, "manufacturing is hard". Manufacturing at scale is exponentially harder, especially something like a biological test.

I also call out your "tests" scenario with Germany that you used to support your argument for testing:

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Per the facts, the US has tested every person in the country nearly 3X since the pandemic began. Germany . . . 1X.

US Population: 333,924,197
US Total Tests: 817,687,497

Germ Population: 84,187,242
Germ Total Tests: 89,622,218

FACT - per capita, the USA has tested it's population 2.5X what Germany has. FACT.


EDIT - a BETTER correlation - the countries that have tested the most per capita (assuming a LARGE population, not something like 30mil or less), the USA, UK, France, and Italy all have LARGE PRESENCES by pharma manufacturers. The more appropriate conclusion is that test availability is more determined by ability to obtain locally-manufactured testing kits.

EDIT2 - and on those tests, we have zero breakdown of which ones are:
1) antigen
2) PCR
3) multiplex PCR

Multiplex PCR can give you 100, or 1000, or 10,000 "negatives" if everyone in a single test tube is negative. So the the real variable you want to know is "unique tests completed", and we don't have that data, because in theory, I could toss 100,000 PCR samples into a single test tube, spin it down for the DNA, and then run a single multiplex PCR on it and call that 100,000 negatives. But I didn't actually run 100,000 tests, I just relied upon statical power (and a bit of luck having no positives in that tube) to get me all those negatives.

 

[scottf200]

... Supply and demand. The Biden administration should have seen this coming and stockpiled tests and masks.

My friend and neighbor is a high-up exec for one of the test makers (Gen-Mark - bought by Roche). Your assumption is 100% wrong. This company and every other testing company have continued to ramp up and crank out tests as quickly as possible, even 2 years into the pandemic.

Have you looked at the cases for Omicron? The peak currently is 2X the highest we saw in Jan of 2020. Demand is simply outstripping the ability to produce both antigen tests and PCR tests.

I'm also quite suspicious if people were not buying a lot of them when they were available (hoarding) for their
a) paranoia or
b) to resell at a profit.

I bought two set (4 test) about a week before things got crazy. I would have bought 3 but they only had 2.
With 3 people in the household that is two test each spread out over a few days.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Anyone keeping track of the number of cases of Delta on an ongoing basis? I'm too lazy to try to look up what the estimated number is from sequencing proportion, etc. It'll be curious to see if it gets crowded out or whether it too will have a surge due to the general merrymaking of the last couple weeks. (COVID appeared to be completely over, based on the New Year's broadcasts. I hope it is; it seems like it might be! )

On my 3000 miles of driving in the last couple weeks, I noticed that most people are not wearing masks indoors in California, Washington, and Oregon. Generally those precautions seem to be reserved for the most crowded indoor urban environments, and even there it is optional (and of course in restaurants in the city they're not needed since COVID observes a truce in those situations).

 

[ohmman]

Multiplex PCR, not individuals.

My kids' schools do it this way every week, which makes for a really scalable way of testing the entire school on a regular basis.

 

[scottf200]

Anyone keeping track of the number of cases of Delta on an ongoing basis? I'm too lazy to try to look up what the estimated number is from sequencing proportion, etc. It'll be curious to see if it gets crowded out or whether it too will have a surge due to the general merrymaking of the last couple weeks. (COVID appeared to be completely over, based on the New Year's broadcasts. I hope it is; it seems like it might be! )

On my 3000 miles of driving in the last couple weeks, I noticed that most people are not wearing masks indoors in California, Washington, and Oregon. Generally those precautions seem to be reserved for the most crowded indoor urban environments, and even there it is optional (and of course in restaurants in the city they're not needed since COVID observes a truce in those situations).

Here is one insight.

 

[bkp_duke]

My kids' schools do it this way every week, which makes for a really scalable way of testing the entire school on a regular basis.

Right, and that makes sense in a low-prevalence scenario. It fails when multiple kids are positive and you have to re-run bunches of tests to narrow down the positive.

Omichron is so widespread, I would not want to be running the lab doing multiplex PCRs. You would have to go with low batch sizes (5 or less) and hope, or run a lot of follow-up tests.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm also quite suspicious if people were not buying a lot of them when they were available (hoarding) for their
a) paranoia or
b) to resell at a profit.

I bought two set (4 test) about a week before things got crazy. I would have bought 3 but they only had 2.
With 3 people in the household that is two test each spread out over a few days.

We've seen that here in SD county. When Walgreens gets them in, someone goes in and cleans out the shelves. You would think there would be a "1 per customer per visit" limit or something.

 

[ohmman]

You would think there would be a "1 per customer per visit" limit or something.

In Sonoma, we've had 2 a per person limit at CVS and Rite-Aid since they started stocking them. I asked recently and they were out of stock. Someone overheard me and offered me one for $50. I laughed, thinking they were joking but once I got in the car I realized they might have been serious. If so.. well, I can't say what I think of that here.