Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

Due to the success of the vaccine, there are those who believe that the vaccinated can spread the virus more easily than the unvaccinated. Since the symptoms are often much less in the vaccinated, they tend to go about their normal routines, often not knowing they are even infected or just think they have an allergy or something. What say you?

My opinion on this (and I have not seen data), is that we are all "COVID fatigued". I think someone would have a lot of difficulty proving that one group is more lackadaisical in the viral hygiene than another group.

I would say, those that are vaccinated MIGHT have an increased proclivity to be careful (they did, after all get vaccinated and were mindful enough to take that step).

 

[bkp_duke]

Weekends and holidays are weird, but pending report-outs from today, the U.S. omicron wave has peaked. In terms of actual community case spread, the peak was probably around January 7th-9th. Those in the hospital with covid likely peaked just shy of 157,000 (there are ~920k staffed beds in the entire country - when fully staffed I'm assuming - for reference) on January 15th. This is in line with the data out of South Africa and the UK - omicron rises rapidly for about a month and then should fall off sharply. Those in the ICU with covid peaked around 26,000 as well. Hospital data is on a lag, so it's possible those #s go up a bit this week, but positivity rate and case #s are falling nationwide. Cases in the UK have been declining for 10-12 days now and the omicron wave appears to have peaked in Italy and France.

Just doing something rough math (and it may be wrong)...something like 1 in every 125 Americans has been hospitalized with covid at some point in the pandemic (assuming each person was only hospitalized once...given the nature of re-infections by different variants, this is perhaps not the safest assumption). Depending on which outlet you believe is most accurate, 1 in every 390 Americans has died from covid in the last two years. If you go by "excess deaths" since February of 2020, that number is 1 in every 350 Americans.

I think it is more appropriate to look state by state than at the US overall. Some areas are likely peaking, some are still most certainly on the rise. We are too big a country to look at it as a whole.

Also, yesterday was a holiday, there may be significant delayed reporting of cases due to that. We'll know by the end of the week.

 

[jerry33]

I would say, those that are vaccinated MIGHT have an increased proclivity to be careful (they did, after all get vaccinated and were mindful enough to take that step).

I just installed new filters in the IQAir Cleanroom H13 this morning. (besides getting vaccinated plus booster, N95 respirator, and hand washing). So I'd agree with this.

 

[FloridaSun]

Being vaccinated means you are less likely to get it and less likely to have a severe case, which means you're more likely to get over it faster if you do get it. All those things mean you're less likely to spread it. Getting a booster improves all that even more. Thus you are in fact putting others at risk, do not pretend otherwise.

The chance of spreading it may be the same or greater if you are vaccinated as you may not have symptoms and therefore won't avoid contact with others as opposed to feeling ill and staying home. Based on scientific research, in vaccinated individuals, the virus mostly stays in nostrils but is eliminated once it gets to the lungs. However, if you have it in your nostrils, you can spread it, even without symptoms. Once you are actually feeling sick, only a-holes would go out in public and infect others. It's easy to spread it if you are not aware that you have it. Went to a party last summer while Delta was spreading. One of the kids at the party had delta and 17 of about 50 people at the party got Delta. All of them were vaccinated and no or mild symptoms. They only got tested because of a known case at the party. If they wouldn't have known about that one case, they would not have gotten tested and would have spread it. I tested negative after that party..

 

[Double-O]

No, I have an issue with people that post misinformation and poor studies as fact and use that to bolster their opinion. If you have high quality covid research to share, I'm happy to read and update my point of view on covid vaccines, treatment, etc.

Like the fact that majority of deaths (in fully vaccinated individuals) are mainly due to underlying health conditions? This isn't an opinion. If you take what CDC claims to be facts, then this is a fact. In a recent study, 75% of deaths in fully vaxxed individuals have had a minimum of 4 underlying health conditions. I get that the vaccine was never intended to prevent transmission or death but this is a fact the media doesn't emphasize. Did covid play a part in their deaths? Probably. But if they were a healthy individual, the odds of death would have been reduced greatly. The focus continues to be on case counts when that doesn't mean much or tell the whole story. Obviously if more n more people continue to test and as easily as omicron is spreading, of course there will be more covid+ results. The problem continues to be lack of transparency. As a country with probably the highest obesity rate, maybe better health should be emphasized ALONG with vaccination to give those at higher risk of having a better chance at fighting off this virus but nobody wants to offend anyone by telling them they're fat or how about you exercise daily and get in better shape.

 

[Double-O]

The chance of spreading it may be the same or greater if you are vaccinated as you may not have symptoms and therefore won't avoid contact with others as opposed to feeling ill and staying home. Based on scientific research, in vaccinated individuals, the virus mostly stays in nostrils but is eliminated once it gets to the lungs. However, if you have it in your nostrils, you can spread it, even without symptoms. Once you are actually feeling sick, only a-holes would go out in public and infect others. It's easy to spread it if you are not aware that you have it. Went to a party last summer while Delta was spreading. One of the kids at the party had delta and 17 of about 50 people at the party got Delta. All of them were vaccinated and no or mild symptoms. They only got tested because of a known case at the party. If they wouldn't have known about that one case, they would not have gotten tested and would have spread it. I tested negative after that party..

Just look at sporting events, restaurants or anything else indoors for that matter. Mask mandates don't make any sense if it's only required to get in somewhere and then most people end up taking it off anyway. "I'm vaccinated so it's okay if I remove this"

As long as these "rules" aren't strictly enforced, spread will continue and as I've mentioned what seems like many moons ago, this will just be something we'll have to learn to live with, especially since it seems like things are getting more and more mild with each variant.

 

[Yuri_G]

Like the fact that majority of deaths (in fully vaccinated individuals) are mainly due to underlying health conditions? This isn't an opinion. If you take what CDC claims to be facts, then this is a fact. In a recent study, 75% of deaths in fully vaxxed individuals have had a minimum of 4 underlying health conditions. I get that the vaccine was never intended to prevent transmission or death but this is a fact the media doesn't emphasize. Did covid play a part in their deaths? Probably. But if they were a healthy individual, the odds of death would have been reduced greatly. The focus continues to be on case counts when that doesn't mean much or tell the whole story. Obviously if more n more people continue to test and as easily as omicron is spreading, of course there will be more covid+ results. The problem continues to be lack of transparency. As a country with probably the highest obesity rate, maybe better health should be emphasized ALONG with vaccination to give those at higher risk of having a better chance at fighting off this virus but nobody wants to offend anyone by telling them they're fat or how about you exercise daily and get in better shape.

Not sure what point you're trying to make, it's common knowledge that obesity is a comorbidity. And if you post a fact, it's helpful to include a link.

An example: Death rate in Switzerland by vaccine status.

Switzerland: COVID-19 weekly death rate by vaccination status

Death rates are calculated as the number of deaths in each group, divided by the total number of people in this group. This is given per 100,000 people.

ourworldindata.org

 

[CatB]

At this point, you are NOT getting vaccinated to protect others.

Don't forget that hospital resources are limited. If all the unvaxed people in the ICUs had been vaccinated, more of them would have recovered at home and hospital resources would be available for people who need non-Covid treatment (cancer, car accident, joint replacements, etc.).
I was point for coordinating care for my Dad after a heart procedure went poorly Oct 2020 to April 2021 when he passed away. I can assure you that his care was compromised, delayed and neglected because hospitals were dealing with Covid patients. That's largely avoidable now, except for the people who've been fed misinformation and therefore are vaccine-hesitant, and now taking up limited, exhausted, healthcare resources.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

From the report, this is how the question was worded.

Would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal for federal or state governments to fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing COVID-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications?

I'm not getting your distinction in the wording of that question and I am not sure I would feel particularly better about the poll results even if your distinction was made.

If the wording of the poll said "to fine or imprison every single individual who ..." then you can translate the opinion in the poll to a blanket opinion that would apply to every individual case.

It didn't, so you can't draw any conclusion from the poll on individual cases.

 

[Jeff N]

US Gov rapid Covid antigen tests are now available for free delivery. Computers are standing by now to take your order.

COVID Home Tests | USPS

COVID Home Tests | USPS

special.usps.com

 

[cusetownusa]

The chance of spreading it may be the same or greater if you are vaccinated as you may not have symptoms and therefore won't avoid contact with others as opposed to feeling ill and staying home. Based on scientific research, in vaccinated individuals, the virus mostly stays in nostrils but is eliminated once it gets to the lungs. However, if you have it in your nostrils, you can spread it, even without symptoms. Once you are actually feeling sick, only a-holes would go out in public and infect others. It's easy to spread it if you are not aware that you have it. Went to a party last summer while Delta was spreading. One of the kids at the party had delta and 17 of about 50 people at the party got Delta. All of them were vaccinated and no or mild symptoms. They only got tested because of a known case at the party. If they wouldn't have known about that one case, they would not have gotten tested and would have spread it. I tested negative after that party..

I agree with you about not mandating a vaccine. And I will give you that spreading the virus may be the same whether vaccinated or not. I haven't looked into this enough to have a strong opinion but I am not sure it even matters because obviously the virus is going to spread no matter what.

However, it is very clear based on the data and not even debatable that there is a much greater chance of being hospitalized (and death) if unvaccinated. So it is extremely selfish and ignorant to think that not getting the vaccine is only affecting yourself. When hospitals are overrun by people that choose not to take a vaccine for selfish reasons, then it most definitely affects other people.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also, I won't take any boosters because it will never end.. I'm not going to get a new shot ever couple of months when a new variant comes along.

Just be aware that if you have not had the booster, you're not up to date on your vaccinations, and you are at substantially increased risk from an infection (though obviously far better off than being unvaccinated). Just like with tetanus, and other vaccinations, it's important to be up to date!

Note that the vaccine, especially when boosted, is extraordinarily effective against all known variants. The data in incontrovertible on this point. Omicron stands virtually no chance, assuming you're basically otherwise healthy and not immunocompromised. Of course it has relatively low efficacy (50-75%) against infection, but completely avoiding a nasty illness which makes you miserable at home for a week is not the point.

Get boosted. The messaging was awful, so I understand the confusion, but Biden had it right when he said everyone should get boosted in September. Unfortunately nonsense polluted that clear, science-backed message and subsequent missteps from the administration and public health authorities have further muddied the waters.

Get boosted. It's strongly supported by the immunology and the data. The two-dose series is too closely spaced and doesn't induce a strong enough response to be sufficient protection.

Obviously, you make your own decisions, but it's important to know that the data strongly support boosting, and it's really not optional from a personal health standpoint.

Regarding future boosting, it's simply too early to say how long lived the extremely strong protection provided by the booster will last, and whether or not additional boosting will be required to maintain protection against severe disease. There are immunological reasons (affinity maturation, for example) to think that protection will be fairly long lasting and maintain a substantial advantage over a two-dose series in the long term, but no actual data to support it at this time since there has not been enough time. But one step at a time. We can take action based on what we know now.

 

[golfcart]

An example: Death rate in Switzerland by vaccine status. View attachment 757078

Switzerland: COVID-19 weekly death rate by vaccination status

Death rates are calculated as the number of deaths in each group, divided by the total number of people in this group. This is given per 100,000 people.

ourworldindata.org

A picture is worth a thousand words in this case. Great chart.

 

[FloridaSun]

Just look at sporting events, restaurants or anything else indoors for that matter. Mask mandates don't make any sense if it's only required to get in somewhere and then most people end up taking it off anyway. "I'm vaccinated so it's okay if I remove this"

As long as these "rules" aren't strictly enforced, spread will continue and as I've mentioned what seems like many moons ago, this will just be something we'll have to learn to live with, especially since it seems like things are getting more and more mild with each variant.

Spread will continue no matter what. COVID is here to stay. We have to get back to normal. Those who choose to get the protection of vaccines are free to do so and others can't complain if they end up in the hospital with it.
As we achieve herd immunity with a combination of vaccines and natural immunity due to infection, hospitalization rates will keep dropping and this will eventually be like the flu.

 

[FloridaSun]

Don't forget that hospital resources are limited. If all the unvaxed people in the ICUs had been vaccinated, more of them would have recovered at home and hospital resources would be available for people who need non-Covid treatment (cancer, car accident, joint replacements, etc.).
I was point for coordinating care for my Dad after a heart procedure went poorly Oct 2020 to April 2021 when he passed away. I can assure you that his care was compromised, delayed and neglected because hospitals were dealing with Covid patients. That's largely avoidable now, except for the people who've been fed misinformation and therefore are vaccine-hesitant, and now taking up limited, exhausted, healthcare resources.

Hospitalizations as % of infected are dropping like a rock as more and more of the infected are either vaccinated or already had COVID before. They will continue to drop. COVID19 will not be eliminated.

 

[FloridaSun]

A picture is worth a thousand words in this case. Great chart.

it's scientificly proven that you have a higher chance of death if unvaccinated. It comes down to individual choices to choose to protect yourself..

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's scientifically proven that you have a higher chance of death if unvaccinated.

Yes. And 5x higher chance of death if you are vaccinated but not boosted, as in your case. You make the call.

more of the infected are either vaccinated or already had COVID before.

This was an interesting thread on vaccine-acquired natural immunity and infection-acquired immunity related to Omicron (small sample of 23 individuals in total). This focuses on antibody levels, so it's hard to draw conclusions on severe disease outcomes, though they will be correlated (it's more related to future dynamics of spread):

1) Many of the unvaccinated in this study had been previously infected (based on titers)
2) The unvaccinated miss out on strong protection against future infection by Omicron (many had minimal increase in titers; overall increase was 3x less than increase in the vaccinated, but the increase the unvaccinated did see was mostly due to those not previously infected)
3) Many of the unvaccinated saw no increase in protection against Delta (again, those who saw an increase may have never been infected previously). All of the vaccinated saw increased protection against Delta.
4) After infection by Omicron, vaccinated are better protected against Delta than Omicron. Not the case if unvaccinated.
4) This means that Omicron may help push out Delta infections - but primarily only amongst those who are vaccinated. Much less the case amongst those who have not been vaccinated - even if they have previously been infected. Two infections is not enough. I would guess 3-4 infections may end up providing good protection overall.

I guess having everyone unvaccinated get infected 3-4 times is...one path to endemicity. Great! If only there were another way which did not lead to as much transmission...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483123897654517762

It would be better to see a larger sample here, though this is probably enough to be a significant result.

 

[Jeff N]

Hospitalizations as % of infected are dropping like a rock as more and more of the infected are either vaccinated or already had COVID before. They will continue to drop. COVID19 will not be eliminated.

True, but absolute hospitalizations are now as high or higher in Florida than some previous Covid waves:

 

[jerry33]

True, but absolute hospitalizations are now as high or higher in Florida than some previous Covid waves:


View attachment 757130
View attachment 757131

Isn't the Florida graph the one that always makes it appear to be over the peak?

 

[madodel]

Are people who’ve had the single J&J jab no longer fully vaccinated in Germany?

Since January 15th, however, a single dose of J&J should no longer count as full vaccination, according to the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), the country’s vaccine authority.​

In autumn last year the German government began recommending a second mRNA jab for people who’d had J&J – which many people thought was the booster vaccination.​

​

However, according to the PEI’s update on proof of vaccination within the Covid Protective Measures Exemption Ordinance and the Coronavirus Entry Ordinance, the second shot is needed to complete ‘basic immunisation’.​