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California opened restaurants and other facilities last June. It's also an enormous state with very different approaches to COVID throughout. When I go to the Sierras, masking is hit-or-miss, but in the Bay Area it's almost 100%.

Florida ranks as the 18th highest state in fatality rate per case. California is 38th highest, or the 12th lowest.

Hoping your symptoms stay mild or nonexistent and things pass quickly. Same for your wife.
Based in age adjusted rates Florida is 31st and California is 39th. Though based on excess deaths there was evidence that California (and many other states) significantly undercounted early in the pandemic compared to Florida so who really knows??

IHME scientist

I believe age adjusted rates are the most accurate way of evaluating a disease like this where the risk varies so much by age.

Age adjusted COVID deaths by state

Florida gets so much attention for political reasons (IMO) but performance wise they have done reasonably well compared to the rest of the country. They have vaccinated 96% of their age 65+ population and 71% of the age 18-64 population which are both in the top half of the country. Vax rates and general population health (IMO) seem to be the main drivers of state death rates not mask policies or school closures.

Vax rates by state
 
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Based in age adjusted rates Florida is 31st and California is 39th.

A few weeks ago Florida was much higher in the unadjusted position. Florida's current reporting of deaths seems delayed, so currently it can't be compared. Or at least there appears no explanation why Florida would haved moved down so much.

Though based on excess deaths there was evidence that California (and many other states) significantly undercounted early in the pandemic compared to Florida so who really knows??

Numbers from early in the pandemic are relatively small from today's perspective.
So, if Florida's number of deaths are 40% higher altogether, as per your link, that's potentially a much larger number relatively speaking.

I believe age adjusted rates are the most accurate way of evaluating a disease like this where the risk varies so much by age.

That's defintely an important point but there is another side to it: The age dependency was known very early on, so any measures taken should have taken that into account and adjust to it.
 
Early evidence indicates that BA.2 evades vaccine immunity better than the existing omicron

That evidence is super limited right now I think. I’d be cautious about drawing firm conclusions on this yet. Especially since Trevor Bedford thinks a wave due to that variants are going to be mostly driven by people without sufficient immunity rather than immune escape. Trevor seems to be right about everything!

There are actually some signs there might be some original antigenic sin with Omicron in general (where the body tends not to generate antibodies to the modified antigen, instead preferring to boost prior antibodies, as I understand it). Or it could just be the change in the spike shape making it less easy to generate neutralizing antibodies against…. (Note this would not necessarily impact T-cells). I guess we’ll see.
 
A few weeks ago Florida was much higher in the unadjusted position. Florida's current reporting of deaths seems delayed, so currently it can't be compared. Or at least there appears no explanation why Florida would haved moved down so much.



Numbers from early in the pandemic are relatively small from today's perspective.
So, if Florida's number of deaths are 40% higher altogether, as per your link, that's potentially a much larger number relatively speaking.



That's defintely an important point but there is another side to it: The age dependency was known very early on, so any measures taken should have taken that into account and adjust to it.

The post I was responding to compared California to Florida so I was just pointing out that California underreporting was 93% based on the IHME model while Florida underreporting was 40% (per the link). This was May 2021 so not that early but still a while back. Counting is suspect across the board but some appear to be worse than others at least based on that model.

I’m just pointing out that despite the vastly outsized media attention Florida receives for COVID policy they are really the wrong target based on the available evidence. They let people live their lives more than most but they also prioritized making vaccines easily accessible and were pretty successful in getting the most susceptible portions of the population (people age 50+) to get their shots without vaccine mandates, lockdowns, or mass firings.
 
I’m just pointing out that despite the vastly outsized media attention Florida receives for COVID policy they are really the wrong target based on the available evidence. They let people live their lives more than most but they also prioritized making vaccines easily accessible and were pretty successful in getting the most susceptible portions of the population (people age 50+) to get their shots without vaccine mandates, lockdowns, or mass firings.
And as I've pointed out repeatedly Florida's policies were terrible at keeping the infection per capita low, still in the top 10 ten worst in the nation. There is nothing special in Florida's policies that explain the lower adjusted death rates, they don't have miracle cures, (though there is evidence that at one point they were hoarding some effective treatments.) Simply put if their policies were more restrictive their infection rate would have been lower and thus their death rate would have been even lower still. Florida policy cost lives.
 

But no matter how done with COVID-19 and the debate over masks we are, COVID-19 isn’t done with us. That’s why we must hit the reset button on masking. The analogy I like to use is going out in the cold. You need different levels of protection depending on the weather – a light jacket when it’s a bit chilly, a coat and hat when it’s snowing and many layers of professional-level gear when climbing Mount Everest – or in this case "Mount Omicron."

We must acknowledge in addition to changing knowledge about the virus that the “weather conditions” have changed – omicron is more contagious than delta, which itself was more contagious than earlier strains, thus requiring more protection – and greater availability of protective gear has made it possible for people to better protect themselves.
 
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And as I've pointed out repeatedly Florida's policies were terrible at keeping the infection per capita low, still in the top 10 ten worst in the nation. There is nothing special in Florida's policies that explain the lower adjusted death rates, they don't have miracle cures, (though there is evidence that at one point they were hoarding some effective treatments.) Simply put if their policies were more restrictive their infection rate would have been lower and thus their death rate would have been even lower still. Florida policy cost lives.
You have repeatedly pointed out nothing useful. Infections per capita is a function of testing and didn’t really matter much once vaccines were widely available. It is about hospitalizations and deaths.

Nobody said Florida had miracle cures you’re just attacking straw men every time you respond with the same nonsense. I never brought up Florida as the best example I just said they’re the wrong target for bad policy and do so in response to the repeated (likely partisan) attacks on the state in this thread.

Of course more restrictive policies would have saved lives. If nobody drove it would save lives. If nobody had sex except to procreate it would save lives. If nobody went in the ocean it would save lives. If nobody ate sugar it would save lives. What is your point? They chose a different path to live with the virus than some states, it worked out pretty well, and people there are happy. If you’re tired of hearing about Florida then tell the rest of the people in the thread to stop spreading misinformation about Florida doing poorly and I’ll stop defending the state with facts.
 
You have repeatedly pointed out nothing useful. Infections per capita is a function of testing and didn’t really matter much once vaccines were widely available. It is about hospitalizations and deaths.

Nobody said Florida had miracle cures you’re just attacking straw men every time you respond with the same nonsense. I never brought up Florida as the best example I just said they’re the wrong target for bad policy and do so in response to the repeated (likely partisan) attacks on the state in this thread.

Of course more restrictive policies would have saved lives. If nobody drove it would save lives. If nobody had sex except to procreate it would save lives. If nobody went in the ocean it would save lives. If nobody ate sugar it would save lives. What is your point? They chose a different path to live with the virus than some states, it worked out pretty well, and people there are happy. If you’re tired of hearing about Florida then tell the rest of the people in the thread to stop spreading misinformation about Florida doing poorly and I’ll stop defending the state with facts.
Deaths per capita and hospitalizations per capita are definitely more important than infections per capita. These are things that affect the healthcare services which can impact us all. If someone personally hasn’t been impacted by denied services due to full hospitals, well… lucky them. In my state, I (and my family members) have been affected.

Highly packed areas also seem to play a role. (IE NYC.) which makes sense.

Florida is not doing “well”.


The only saving Grace is that hopefully after this wave is done, the worst may be behind us. Time will tell.
 
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Of course more restrictive policies would have saved lives. If nobody drove it would save lives. If nobody had sex except to procreate it would save lives. If nobody went in the ocean it would save lives. If nobody ate sugar it would save lives. What is your point? They chose a different path to live with the virus than some states, it worked out pretty well, and people there are happy. If you’re tired of hearing about Florida then tell the rest of the people in the thread to stop spreading misinformation about Florida doing poorly and I’ll stop defending the state with facts.
You just piled up a bunch of strawmen yourself, completely free of facts.
 
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John Hopkins study...​

A Literature Review and Meta Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID 19 Mortality.​

The headlines seem to support some of the policies and thinking coming out of Florida and less restricted areas...

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
 

John Hopkins study...​

A Literature Review and Meta Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID 19 Mortality.​

The headlines seem to support some of the policies and thinking coming out of Florida and less restricted areas...

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
Lol. From a series of working papers mostly written by undergraduates…for practice. One of the authors is from Cato Institute, FWIW. Also, New Zealand and Australia would like a word with the authors.

And a meta-analysis without peer review? Yikes!

At this point, I am definitely anti-lockdown unless some crazy variant comes along that escapes severe disease protection. But the idea that they did not help is nearly comical. There’s a reason vaccines had a chance to save around a million people in this country!
 

John Hopkins study...​

A Literature Review and Meta Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID 19 Mortality.​

The headlines seem to support some of the policies and thinking coming out of Florida and less restricted areas...

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
I wonder if this is the JH study a maskless guy was crowing about at the County Election Board meeting. He kept saying the study proved that we didn't have to do anything and that only 0.2% of people died. Just fodder for the clueless.
 
Mentioned her in the past as she lays out and summarizes well.

Title: Here comes the under 5 vaccine! But I have questions...
Katelyn Jetelina
 
When lockdowns we’re announced, we were in the beginning stages of a bad pandemic. No one could predict how things would trend.

Not isolating the ‘healthy’ wasn’t something could have been practical to implement. Many people didn’t show symptoms, yet could transmit the virus. Your imperious claim that any physician who recommended thus would not pass the board is just puffery and hubris. What training do you have to make such a claim?

Now, one study is showing limited effectiveness after 2 years of the pandemic. Even if we take it at it’s face value, at the time, no one has the hindsight 20/20 benefit. No, not even Elon, as god like as he must seem to you. He was acting out of anxiety that the lockdown would cause on Tesla. While other big and small businesses obeyed the law, Elon chose to go the other way, and he was 100% wrong to do that.

Those who are thanking GOD that Elon did what he did must stop castigating Gavin Newsom. Double standards at best, flaming hypocrisy at its worst.

I am done with this devolved thread.
No, don't be done, stand and debate, it's fun! I can tell you I hold/held 2 board certs but let one lapse as I no longer practice that specialty. In that specialty, I spent years taking care of "at-risk" patients and also ran an ICU, so I am quite familiar with infectious disease standards of care and respiratory illnesses. We knew very early on that the virus was smaller than the pores thru the mask, and that masks are effective mostly against droplets. Studioes later, gov't is still demanding masks. Like I said, standards of care require isolating the sick, not the healthy, and preventive therapies, especially an untested one, should always be targeted to those most at-risk. mRNA vaccines have never been used large scale, but were used here for simplicity and expedience. I had the virus and got vaxxed. I got a second vax because I wanted to vacation with my family and the venues required us to be "vaxxed"--defined as vax x 2, which is exposure x 2. But, infection + vax X 1 is not considered "vaxxed", but meets the definition of exposure x 2. How stupid is this? Very stupid I assure you. Science? None. They turned off their brains. Where are the physician leaders who go along with this ascientific nonsense?
 
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Agreed. We don’t even fully understand BA.1 yet. It’s a game of whack a mole IMO by the time we whack one variant a new one pops up.
What ? I thought everyone should get infected to achieve "herd immunity" and all would be well ;)

I don't care if we have 70000 cases in a day if only a small fraction require emergency room visits.
If you ignore Long Covid ...
 
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