CPO vs New

[Cnasty]

I have been crunching numbers for about 3 months now. From recognizing I was trading the wrong car to switching to one with equity versus upside down, to daycare costs in our budget, to seeing if I really wanted to buy a car this expensive.

I have a test drive scheduled on Saturday and hope to get a more firm answer of the future for our family regarding space needs, performance, financing, etc when we go.

With that being said, I am a pretty simple man and a simple Tesla would be a luxury for us. I am very supportive of the brand and would love to never have to deal with fossil fuels again in our cars.

Now my decision is new vs CPO. There are a large number of fantastic CPO vehicles that would fit our needs which are:

60kwh would be plenty for our commute and travel needs
No need for autopilot even though it is fantastic, I can wait
Minimal additions in terms of customization besides maybe pano roof as I am very tall
Minimal miles but this might be a moot point as i am thinking as an ICE owner versus how mileage works on a CPO Tesla

Now I really like the new redesign much better than the previous version but it isn't a deciding factor.
I would want to finance if it all possible and will do a trade with Tesla if they come anywhere near my offers for my car as it seems much easier.

Did anyone go through this same dilemma and have factors that they can offer to decide why you decided one way or another?

I didn't think this long and hard over our house and I am doing it over a car?!? What is wrong with me!!!

Thanks for any input and feedback and love the community here!

 

[Boourns]

There are a lot of opinions on this subject, but mine is that if you can afford the new one, get the new one. If you can spend $60k or more on the car, get a new 60 with AP. I would rather have a new 60 with AP but fewer other options than a fully loaded 2014 P85. My budget was mid-40s so I had no choice but to look at CPO. But if you can afford either, I'd go new.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

Budget constraints pushed me to CPO. You get the same warranty as new, and if you don't need AP, go CPO...

 

[Az_Rael]

The new base 60 is probably at the very top end of my price range. I really couldn't get many/any options even when taking into account the tax credit.

However, I am seeing CPO 60s under 50k and very nicely optioned, even though they don't have autopilot. For me the price differential makes all the difference. I can get essentially a fully loaded 60 for lots less than a new one.

Also, the CPOs have already taken the big hits to their depreciation. The only problem with the tax credit is a new car instantly depreciates by the tax credit amount plus "normal" depreciation. That works out to a big number. A CPO has already taken that hit, so if I only want to drive it for the two years until my 3 is ready, I may lose less on the CPO. However if you routinely drive cars until the wheels fall off, then it is better to buy new, since depreciation doesn't matter.

So I am shopping CPOs right now instead of ordering new.

 

[Redmiata98]

There is an app that lists all the Teslas for sale (including CPO) across the nation with their options and selling prices. If someone can provide the link, you should use it in your search. That way you might find one that has the autopilot for close to a like configured one without it. I say this because the advertised price difference on my S with AP was listed on the CPO for only about $1500 difference. For some reason there was not that big of a price difference at the time. (Hammer got lucky when he bought it!)

 

[Rahul]

I've been in the same exact position and I ended up going with new. If best value is your goal, the new 60s are a fantastic value.

1. You get a car with 0 miles configured the way you want
2. You are getting the latest model, the new refresh should already starting depressing prices on the previous look.
3. You get a car with the latest hardware not to mention constant build improvements. Also don't forget the center console ($600 aftermarket?)
4. You are actually getting a 75kWh battery
5. If you have good credit you should qualify for 1.49% financing over 72 months which is pretty much borrowing for free

If you only add leather, premium, and pano you are looking at $66,700 after the fed tax credit. You have the option to unlock 75kWh and autopilot later.

Also consider having to sell the car in 3 years. Given that the new cars have a 75kWh battery they should sell for much more than current 60 CPOs are selling for. But the 2-3 year old 60 CPO might be really difficult to sell in another 3 years because the remaining range on them will exclude a lot of buyers and by then it will be really outdated, most Tesla buyers want later tech.

It's not an easy call but I think new is the way to go.

My 2 cents...

 

[Az_Rael]

But the 2-3 year old 60 CPO might be really difficult to sell in another 3 years because the remaining range on them will exclude a lot of buyers and by then it will be really outdated, most Tesla buyers want later tech

True, most Tesla buyers today do want the latest tech. But autopilot 2.0 is right around the corner. That will make the new 60s look old really fast. I can drive a CPO now for much less money until AP 2.0 comes out and upgrade then.

 

[Rahul]

True, most Tesla buyers today do want the latest tech. But autopilot 2.0 is right around the corner. That will make the new 60s look old really fast. I can drive a CPO now for much less money until AP 2.0 comes out and upgrade then.

Yeah I get that argument but it will make the CPO look even older. So the big question really is what's the net depreciation between the 2 options. This is how I thought about it.

CPO
Snag a 2013 S60 CPO right now with 30K miles for $50K. Assuming 10K miles/year, in 3 years you're trying to resell a 6 year old / 2 owner car with 60K miles and 6 years of battery degradation. I don't have a crystal ball but I think the best I could get out of it is $35K so the net cost is $15K.

New
Starting with 0 miles, same assumptions. In 3 years you are trying to resell a 3 year old / 1 owner car with 30K miles on it which can be upgraded to 75kWh by the next owner. If the current S60s are selling in the $45-55K range my guess is a new 2016 S60 w/ current hardware should fetch $50K because of the larger battery potential. So the net cost is $15K-$20K depending on configuration.

In the end it seems the net cost will be roughly the same between the 2 options but with new you're enjoying the latest build improvements.

Of course who knows what's gonna happen, there's tons of assumptions built in here.

 

[CLLACAB]

I have always been a big fan of the CPO process. If you can deal without the latest bells and whistles, I have always believed that it is the way to go. I hate taking the big hit to value as soon as your drive away. As a CPO, you will only lose the normal annual depreciation - the "cost of ownership." and will lose less overall when you decide to sell.

 

[Zybd1201]

The new base 60 is probably at the very top end of my price range. I really couldn't get many/any options even when taking into account the tax credit.

However, I am seeing CPO 60s under 50k and very nicely optioned, even though they don't have autopilot. For me the price differential makes all the difference. I can get essentially a fully loaded 60 for lots less than a new one.

Also, the CPOs have already taken the big hits to their depreciation. The only problem with the tax credit is a new car instantly depreciates by the tax credit amount plus "normal" depreciation. That works out to a big number. A CPO has already taken that hit, so if I only want to drive it for the two years until my 3 is ready, I may lose less on the CPO. However if you routinely drive cars until the wheels fall off, then it is better to buy new, since depreciation doesn't matter.

So I am shopping CPOs right now instead of ordering new.

I have always been a big fan of buying used cars. However, the difference between a 2013-2014 built Tesla and the new Tesla is likely to be much more given that they didn't really know what they were doing back then. For me it isn't the same as my Buick purchase. Buick already had the manufacturing down. Tesla was just figuring it out back then.

IMHO, if you can't afford a S60 with the options you want right now then you should probably wait until the model 3 comes out or you can afford the current s60. Also look for S70s "new" CPO. That may be a better option for you.

For me, there was literally no way I would buy a 2013 Model S. I'm sure it was a great car but it is no secret the reliability and build quality of the cars has improved substantially since then.

 

[Cnasty]

This is fantastic feedback.

For me budget is a concern and I would like to keep my next car payment in line with what I pay now + fuel savings.

My monthly payment is $430 and I pay $45 a week in gas.

CPO can get into that rate depending on how much I get for my trade in and can put down as well as the rate I receive.
If I go new, which I am leaning due to reasons given by @Rahul, I will be pushing probably $200 above what I was looking to spend a month. Not a whole lot but will hit the budget and will take more convincing from my wife.

Is the center console and lack of AP the only hardware differences? All the CPO screens and updates are the same, interior materials the same if you get the exact same as CPO and new correct?

 

[Cnasty]

For me, there was literally no way I would buy a 2013 Model S. I'm sure it was a great car but it is no secret the reliability and build quality of the cars has improved substantially since then.

Another valid point but I also feel a 4 year warranty alleviates a lot of these concerns for me as I don't plan to hold on to it more than 3 years if that especially with my Model 3 reservation now going to my wife and me taking the S.

I really want a new one but somehow need to keep the payments under $700.

 

[Skotty]

For me, it was a choice of new with auto-pilot and maybe AWD, or used with larger battery and higher performance and an extra option or two. As a performance junkie that frequently takes long trips for work, I chose the latter and got a CPO P85 instead of something like a new 60. I'm pretty happy with that choice. I'm somewhat indifferent on auto-pilot though, and I know that's a big thing for a lot of people and many wouldn't want to live without it.

Ultimately I think you have to decide for yourself. But I can add this if it helps -- most of the financing options I looked at would not cover above 80 or 90% tops for a CPO, but some would cover as much as 100% for a new one. If you are trading something in with value, that might not matter. But if you are not, or don't have a trade in, then it might. Make sure you have all the financing details and know your financing options before buying.

 

[CLLACAB]

The CPO warranty is 4 years - 50K miles from when you take delivery. So that would cover you. With regard to differences, it's always hard to say what they are since Tesla does not make changes based upon model year. You might not have things like folding mirrors, front/rear parking sensors. Then you should look at the other options on the car: roof, sound system, carbon finder, etc. The center console (and LTE) can always be added prior to delivery. That's what I did.

 

[Cnasty]

But I can add this if it helps -- most of the financing options I looked at would not cover above 80 or 90% tops for a CPO, but some would cover as much as 100% for a new one. If you are trading something in with value, that might not matter. But if you are not, or don't have a trade in, then it might. Make sure you have all the financing details and know your financing options before buying.

This is great info and did not know that. This will definitely factor into my decision as my trade in will probably only net me $2-$3k if that.

 

[sammyfan711]

Gotta go new, autopilot may not seem necessary now but your future self will thank you for the foresight.

It takes away so much of the stress from driving - you can't put a price tag on that!

 

[Zybd1201]

I really want a new one but somehow need to keep the payments under $700.

If this is your issue then you really need a larger down payment rather than a worse car. I know that is easier said than done depending on your financial situation but perhaps selling your current car on the private market would net a larger gain? Maybe a little part time work somewhere. Freelancing? Borrow from a (good) friend?

 

[Az_Rael]

Yeah I get that argument but it will make the CPO look even older. So the big question really is what's the net depreciation between the 2 options. This is how I thought about it.

CPO
Snag a 2013 S60 CPO right now with 30K miles for $50K. Assuming 10K miles/year, in 3 years you're trying to resell a 6 year old / 2 owner car with 60K miles and 6 years of battery degradation. I don't have a crystal ball but I think the best I could get out of it is $35K so the net cost is $15K.

New
Starting with 0 miles, same assumptions. In 3 years you are trying to resell a 3 year old / 1 owner car with 30K miles on it which can be upgraded to 75kWh by the next owner. If the current S60s are selling in the $45-55K range my guess is a new 2016 S60 w/ current hardware should fetch $50K because of the larger battery potential. So the net cost is $15K-$20K depending on configuration.

In the end it seems the net cost will be roughly the same between the 2 options but with new you're enjoying the latest build improvements.

Of course who knows what's gonna happen, there's tons of assumptions built in here.

True - when you look at it that way the costs may be the same. Just solidifies that what I am thinking about doing is the most impractical car buying process I have ever done (new OR used).

I am just feeling a little burned from my new Volt purchase. If I had bought used, I would have ended up with a much better value after 3 years.

 

[cab]

I'm in this same boat a bit too. Honestly though, I've actually "decided" to go CPO P85, BUT we (my adviser and I) aren't having any luck actually finding one that has all the features I want in the color combo I want. The longer the hunt continues, the more temped I am by the new 60.

Like Skotty, I REALLY appreciate performance so, as a friend of mine noted, for me it is "New + Autopilot" vs. "Old, Fast and Loaded". In fairness a P85 (even with degradation) will likely still have more range than a new 60 too. I know folks state "yeah, but you can range charge the 60 all the time since it is really a 75", but that's irrelevant since I only need increased range on out of town trips and the P85 would range charge then too - I wouldn't care on either car "around town".

The whole "you can upgrade a new 60 to a 75 later" is both cool and potentially irrelevant too. Imagine it is 3 years from now and you decide you want more range. Will sinking $9 grand into a 3 year old S60 be prudent? By that time, the battery options will likely be larger and I doubt you'll really get an additional $9K worth of resale out of it. You are more likely to sell it and put that coin toward buying something else.

In addition, if we are talking a $58k CPO vs, a $58K S60 that's one thing, but if we are talking a $58K CPO vs. a $67K S75 the whole discussion becomes a lot more apples/oranges especially since that doesn't even get you AP for that price (add another $2500). In short, people compare the two because the price points are similar and then they toss in "and you can upgrade the battery", but then the price points aren't similar at all. Indeed, I would be hard pressed to buy a new S60 without at least adding leather and autopilot...and I would be sorely tempted by the pano roof since it seems to be part of the Model S experience. If I added the upgrade to a 75 later and look at my total cost, well my price points weren't really similar at all were they?

I did a whole spreadsheet comparing them, as I honestly wasn't sure myself. In the end I decided that so long as the new S60 (handful of options) and CPO P85 (loaded) were $10K apart, the CPO P85 remained a more compelling proposition. If the delta was only $5K, I would likely have to give up the power/options for new/autopilot.

For many shopping in the CPO realm, we are constrained by budget or at least some semblance of fiscal responsibility (I use that phrase loosely), so in the end it may simply come down to not wanting or being able to spend more than $X.

 

[twonius]

The used prices right now are absurd due to the fact that Tesla's keeping all the lease turn ins as service loaners for Model X.

I was in the same boat as you and was waiting for prices to return to where they were this winter (about 52k for a CPO 85.. now they're like 58k at least).

I was always in the camp to buy a nice used car rather than a new one but in this scenario I flipped. I ran out the 8 year NPV for both cars and with added maintenance, no tax credit and the same depreciation rate the new car actually came out ahead of the old one. Also don't forget the tax credits. My car is $62500 after all incentives so a 58k CPO 85 is not a heck of a lot cheaper.. and I have autopilot + the color scheme I wanted. (Ocean blue & next gen tan wasn't even available back then)

Here's my sheet: Car cost NPV comps

Now I don't think I'll ever upgrade to the 75 as I live in a warm climate with lots of supercharger density. The extra range just isn't that necessary. I may have to do 1 more stop on a 500 mile trip but with how often that would happen x 40mins / $8500 I'd be spending hundreds of dollars per hour.

I'm also comfortable adding a year onto the financing on a new car relative to a 3 year old car as the car will be 2 years younger when it's paid off. I did 72 month financing instead of 60. I didn't want to be making payments when the car was out of warranty.I could've put more down but the interest rate was so low I decided I can get better returns elsewhere.

I copied the sheet from teslacost.com

Keeping a car only 3 years is going to be an expensive proposition any way you slice it. That's what kept me out of the Prius and Highlander. Sales taxes alone are going to be a 3-4k writeoff every 3 years. I thought I'd quickly get bored with them and cut back my savings to trade up in a couple years anyway.

Honestly if you're hitting a hard limit at $700 a month (my car will be about $950) it may just not be time for you to get a Tesla. The older cars have problems so you're better off driving driving your current car for a couple more years , paying down the loan until you're no longer underwater and waiting for newer stuff to come into budget. It's a nice car but really scraping to buy a fancy car while you have kids is not a recipe for happiness.