CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[Vines]

BTW there's no way a future homeowner installing solar sees the extra 4%. The installers are going to take that margin, they'll simply raise their prices 4% so the net impact to the homeowner is close to nil.

I'm watching in real time our costs for our most expensive hardware increase by 30-40% in a year. Wages are going up to match the market and retain talent.

Installed prices are going up with inflation. The real benefit is in the coming years when the ITC was going to 0. To those customers getting the full 30% is huge.

The best time to buy ESS and Solar is always last year.

 

[getakey]

and when NM3 hits, bye bye market

 

[Vines]

and when NM3 hits, bye bye market

I am not so doom and gloom, it really depends if people fight it. There are many smart people right here, but did you already call your governor?

A few thousand folks in front of cameras makes some noise. It's just not cool enough to protest anymore though. If CPUC is going to use the Inflation Reduction Act as part of the calculus, they also need to recalculate the installed system prices, post COVID at a minimum!

 

[sunwarriors]

I'm more of the mindset that they will pass/approve something very draconian, then jobs will be lost/dry up, the following year, things will be backed off and made more fair since real job losses affects people more directly for folks to argue/protest/get in people's faces/etc when things are bad enough. I think other states have done this and things were backed off after the fact since it's all speculation from all sides now with how bad it will be if/when these changes are put in. When solar projects/jobs drop 80-90% due to NEM3.0, we'll see NEM3.1.

Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but have little faith in the CPUC/IOUs since the ideal situation for IOUs is to actually gut all solar. When you sell something like a drug (electricity) that people need, it's obvious they don't want other folks to be able to generate said drug (electricity).

It's almost like as a people/human race, we're setup to make things so bad before things are changed (like cost cutting at companies and everyone quits, etc. before they back off).

 

[getakey]

I'm more of the mindset that they will pass/approve something very draconian, then jobs will be lost/dry up, the following year, things will be backed off and made more fair since real job losses affects people more directly for folks to argue/protest/get in people's faces/etc when things are bad enough. I think other states have done this and things were backed off after the fact since it's all speculation from all sides now with how bad it will be if/when these changes are put in. When solar projects/jobs drop 80-90% due to NEM3.0, we'll see NEM3.1.

Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but have little faith in the CPUC/IOUs since the ideal situation for IOUs is to actually gut all solar. When you sell something like a drug (electricity) that people need, it's obvious they don't want other folks to be able to generate said drug (electricity).

It's almost like as a people/human race, we're setup to make things so bad before things are changed (like cost cutting at companies and everyone quits, etc. before they back off).

I tend to agree

 

[BGbreeder]

My experience is that people seem to respond better to crises than to rational discussions of problems. Not necessarily rational, and not without disruption, losses, and pain, but there you go. It took the Cuyahoga River catching fire to get environmental and clean water top of mind for people.

So, yes, file me with @sunwarriors and @getakey; I expect NEM3.0 to pass, business to fail, jobs to be lost, and for it to take a few years for it to finally dawn on the politicians that without a greatly revised NEM3.1, California won't make its clean energy goals, and won't be able to support the transition to EVs. I am hopeful that at that point the CPUC won't have any political cover for doing anything favorable to the IOUs, and we might see a radically revised grid/power generation/metering arrangement, with fixed grid connection fees to cover the grid, and all power purchased at the current highest marginal cost IOU generator. (Wisconsin did this back in the 1980s, and promptly got a bunch of expensive old diesel peakers ripped out, and a bunch of small, widely distributed generator systems (hydro, solar, wind) on line. IIRC, The diesels were over $1/kWh then, and after ripping them out, the utilities were still looking at around $0.50/kWh, at which price point alternative energy generation sources were possible financially. Over time, it put a great deal of pressure on the IOUs to get more efficient, so in my view, it was a win-win-win.)

So I expect a bumpy flight ahead folks.

All the best,

BG

 

[charlesj]

...

Just for funsies, I went and got a quote for solar only this week. 4.38 kWp DC or 3.8 kWp AC. They want $23,356 BEFORE incentives. That is $5.33 per watt. I am not making this stuff up. No ESS... no special whatever... this is just the "take it or leave it" quote.

Since we are quoting system prices, I remember back in Dec 2011 when I was shopping for solar, if I had them install a 3.8 kW system, it would have cost me around $23k-$25k. So, I started to see how much I could install it. Turned out $15k before ITC and so it happened. Still operating. One Enphase inverter was replaced a few years ago, free.

 

[holeydonut]

Who is this quote through? Tesla solar is quoting me the following:

Total:$37,868
$19,368 for 7.2kW panels
$18,500 for 2 powerwalls
including installation excluding tax

The quote was from Sunrun.

They actually lead with the option to pay $17,000 for the system right now, followed by $10 a month for 25 years on a solar lease (PPA). This means the cash up front is lessened, but Sunrun gets all of the 30% ITC. And the total cost of the system (no incentives) is $20,000 over 25 years.

Bottom line for most deals, the customer isn't getting the higher ITC benefit. Either the installer takes it, or PG&E will take it. The government isn't "reducing inflation" it's simply providing avenues for the large stakeholders to increase profits. It's always been this way... because the government can only re-deploy capital and influence demand by effectively barring sales of certain products (like ICE passenger vehicles). The government can't actually set prices.

 

[Sky Blue]

I am not so doom and gloom, it really depends if people fight it. There are many smart people right here, but did you already call your governor?

A few thousand folks in front of cameras makes some noise.

I tend to agree. Governor Newsom got a lot of positive coverage in the mainstream press when the Air Resources Board banned the sale of new ICE vehicles, effective 2035. If Newsom really is planning a run for the White House, the last thing he needs is for the CPUC to trash his reputation as a leading advocate for renewable energy. We just need to keep reminding him that if the CPUC adopts the solar tax and other punitive provisions of the proposed NEM 3, he, Gavin Newsom, will take the blame.

 

[Dave EV]

Since we are quoting system prices, I remember back in Dec 2011 when I was shopping for solar, if I had them install a 3.8 kW system, it would have cost me around $23k-$25k. So, I started to see how much I could install it. Turned out $15k before ITC and so it happened. Still operating. One Enphase inverter was replaced a few years ago, free.

I did the same thing in 2010 - 3.24 kW system for about $15k before rebates/credits, self-installed w/help from family and a friend. System still going strong today (18 Enphase inverters, all good except for the Envoy which was replaced proactively by Enphase in the first 5 years) and I learned a lot in the process.

With NEM3.0 coming, it's time to add another 3-5 kW to account for EV charging and am trying to debate between keeping the existing panels or replacing them entirely - hate to see functional equipment go to waste but new panels are so much more efficient (20%+ compared to the 14% efficient panels I have now or a whopping 40% more power per square meter) I could potentially keep all the panels on one roof facet.

 

[h2ofun]

I did the same thing in 2010 - 3.24 kW system for about $15k before rebates/credits, self-installed w/help from family and a friend. System still going strong today (18 Enphase inverters, all good except for the Envoy which was replaced proactively by Enphase in the first 5 years) and I learned a lot in the process.

With NEM3.0 coming, it's time to add another 3-5 kW to account for EV charging and am trying to debate between keeping the existing panels or replacing them entirely - hate to see functional equipment go to waste but new panels are so much more efficient (20%+ compared to the 14% efficient panels I have now or a whopping 40% more power per square meter) I could potentially keep all the panels on one roof facet.

i would start over

 

[Onetwothree]

I did the same thing in 2010 - 3.24 kW system for about $15k before rebates/credits, self-installed w/help from family and a friend. System still going strong today (18 Enphase inverters, all good except for the Envoy which was replaced proactively by Enphase in the first 5 years) and I learned a lot in the process.

With NEM3.0 coming, it's time to add another 3-5 kW to account for EV charging and am trying to debate between keeping the existing panels or replacing them entirely - hate to see functional equipment go to waste but new panels are so much more efficient (20%+ compared to the 14% efficient panels I have now or a whopping 40% more power per square meter) I could potentially keep all the panels on one roof facet.

If you end up deciding to start over you can probably sell your old panels on craigslist. I sold my 5 year old 345 watt sunpower panels for $150 each in one day, so probably could have gotten more. Was less about the money though and more about wanting them to be put to good use.

 

[holeydonut]

If you end up deciding to start over you can probably sell your old panels on craigslist. I sold my 5 year old 345 watt sunpower panels for $150 each in one day, so probably could have gotten more. Was less about the money though and more about wanting them to be put to good use.

Why did you take out such a young Sunpower system? They charge so much $$$

 

[EinSV]

I tend to agree. Governor Newsom got a lot of positive coverage in the mainstream press when the Air Resources Board banned the sale of new ICE vehicles, effective 2035. If Newsom really is planning a run for the White House, the last thing he needs is for the CPUC to trash his reputation as a leading advocate for renewable energy. We just need to keep reminding him that if the CPUC adopts the solar tax and other punitive provisions of the proposed NEM 3, he, Gavin Newsom, will take the blame.

If the rumored late September date for a CPUC decision is correct it sets up the possibility for Newsom to be a hero by “fixing” any nastiness that comes out of the CPUC before the election.

Or, at least as likely, he could continue feeding from the trough of PG&E, other utilities and their unions etc.

 

[Onetwothree]

Why did you take out such a young Sunpower system? They charge so much $$$

I added an EV and removed all my gas appliances so needed to add more panels. I also wanted to add batteries and found out that my relatively new panels were not compatible with the Sunpower batteries. Then I had difficulty finding an independent installer that would work on a system that they didn't originally install. Definitely not ideal, but getting an entirely new system was the only path forward. I have a friend that is running into the same thing with Tesla so he's trying to find an independent installer that will add panels...so far no luck.

 

[sunwarriors]

Then I had difficulty finding an independent installer that would work on a system that they didn't originally install.

I keep stating this here, but my advice has always been do it all in one swoop with 1 installer. There have been too many comments about installers/contractors not wanting to work with anyone elses system and having 2 systems sounds like a pain to me.

Don't buy into the piecemeal/starter approach that installers may pitch you to keep costs down. Do it all at once since Tesla already doesn't do PWs after the fact and independent installers usually don't want projects that adds 1 PW without solar since solar = easy $$, batteries = more work so they tend to jack up the price for 1 battery, etc...

 

[Dave EV]

I keep stating this here, but my advice has always been do it all in one swoop with 1 installer. There have been too many comments about installers/contractors not wanting to work with anyone elses system and having 2 systems sounds like a pain to me.

Don't buy into the piecemeal/starter approach that installers may pitch you to keep costs down. Do it all at once since Tesla already doesn't do PWs after the fact and independent installers usually don't want projects that adds 1 PW without solar since solar = easy $$, batteries = more work so they tend to jack up the price for 1 battery, etc...

Great advice - also, install more solar than you think you need if you can swing it - very rarely does anyone complain about having too much solar!

 

[h2ofun]

Great advice - also, install more solar than you think you need if you can swing it - very rarely does anyone complain about having too much solar!

Yep, I love having TOO much solar. With our temps projected to be 108 this weekend, having the entire house 70 degrees and having to put a jacket on is great.

 

[Onetwothree]

Great advice - also, install more solar than you think you need if you can swing it - very rarely does anyone complain about having too much solar!

yes it is. And certainly do not believe your installer when they tell you that it's "no problem" to add on whatever you want in the future. I particularly enjoyed the Sunpower panels not being compatible with the Sunpower battery part....

 

[BGbreeder]

yes it is. And certainly do not believe your installer when they tell you that it's "no problem" to add on whatever you want in the future. I particularly enjoyed the Sunpower panels not being compatible with the Sunpower battery part....

Me, too...