This right here.
I still don't think prices ($/kW) will go up. There's no reasonable ROI with NEM3. And now your saying people have to buy an even bigger system. No one is going to shell out $80K when they don't get a return for 20 years. I think installers may offer some creative lease/rent plans.
techcrunch.com
That table isn't in the final decision, so I think you are looking at an early version. The CPUC settled on $3.30 per watt.Aside from inflation... after NEM 3.0 goes in effect, the smaller solar companies (who don't have the purchasing power to get ESS inventory) simply cannot function. During the previous round of discussions after the NEM 3.0 PD dropped, many CALSSA and SEIA members said that the values the CPUC were using in their ROI/Payback calculations was untenable.
As a refresher, here's the table. The CPUC felt that residential solar could be installed for about $2.60 per watt.
The installers argued that if $2.588 is the average per watt, then some installs would be over $2.60; while others would then logically have to be below $2.60. And there was no way an actual business could deliver solar onto a residential rooftop for such a pittance. Basically if a job were only paying $2.00 per watt, the installer couldn't take the project unless it was Tesla willing to sell at or below cost to drive top-line numbers. As @Vines pointed out, it's expensive to run a construction company in California.
The CPUC responded saying their figures were good, and installers just need to do better to get their costs down.
So to that end, the only viable businesses have to incorporate energy storage solutions. Sunrun, Sunpower, Tesla, Semper, etc are all poised to only install PV+ESS systems in California as the solar-only business model vanishes. (edit: note, new construction has to come with solar, but Sunrun has a lot of those contracts locked up with major developers). Without as much competition, the prices will go up even if the economic terms for the buyer are less attractive with NEM 3.0 policies.
When I purchased my 7 kWp-AC PV system and 3 Powerwalls from Sunrun in 2020, the gross cash I paid was $57,000. That is over $8.00 "per solar watt" when factoring in all the equipment against just the PV. Thankfully there was a large-scale SGIP lol.
When a neighbor tried to get a quote for a similar system from Sunrun a few months ago, it was over $75,000 gross (yes, >$10 per solar watt). I doubt pricing is going to come down from here as the competition and options dry up. Installers need either volume or margin to run a business. With NEM 3.0 policies, business viability for installers will need to come from margin.
It is still a BS number that is unobtainable.
Did they give you an estimated annual kWh production value? How does it compare to your actual consumption for the last year? You really want to exceed your current usage and getting 3-4 more panels on the house has a big benefit for not that much extra cost.
I would get as many panels that fit and can get approved, no matter what past usage was. It only goes up
I have the majority of my panels on northwest and northeast facing roofs, because I have a very chopped up set of roof edges and there was very little south facing surfaces and those were slightly lower and marked for fire crew access with larger setbacks. I did get 6 panels moved to better locations, but it only increased my annual production by ~500 kWh (4.5%), but I took what I could get.
For all the issues with Tesla their price is really good. I always advice folks that I'm helping to at least get a Tesla and/or Project Solar quote to get a number. It's relatively low effort. I believe Tesla is saying you will get NEM 2.0 if you accept their design proposal by a certain date.
| Therm to kWh conversion rate | 29.30 |
| Desired number of miles per day | 15.00 |
| Car miles to kWh rate | 0.33 |
| Natural Gas to heat effiency | 0.8 |
| Average Heat pump COP (Coefficient Of Performance) | 3 |
I had a friend make the mistake of going with Tesla. I'm not sure what inverters they use but whatever brand they use is really crappy. His inverter died after less than a year and he got no warning, and didn't realize it was dead until a couple weeks went by. They replaced the inverter under warranty but I think that system is going to become a huge liability after the warranty expires. Meanwhile his other system which has an Enphase inverter is still going problem-free after many years.
I am just waiting to see down the road if the solar roofs have issues. Then what? KISS
After 10yrs it’ll be cheap to replace an inverter.
Entire solar roof install has a 25yr warranty. Doubt anyone that has one is concerned, given that typically a traditional roof warranty only covers the shingle itself and not labour or other materials.
Gotta roll the dice on this one. It's very difficult to rationalize going with someone other than Tesla when the price is ~50% higher.
Probably a SolarEdge inverter as they see seem to have a higher failure rate than some others, mine was replaced at the 2 year mark.
There was a period where Tesla used SolarEdge inverters. See other threads on this board about people's troubles with them. I think Tesla no longer uses SolarEdge inverters, so current installs should be much less likely to have this problem.
