As someone else brought up, if NEM3.0 is a bad financial deal, no one would sign up (or very little) for NEM3.0 and the IOUs still wouldn't be getting these fixed fees anytime soon anyways.
For people with large systems and very high fixed cost under it, they may leave the state or simply remove solar to avoid the fixed charges and just pay their normal energy bill monthly as that may cost less without the headache or unknown of what the fee will be later, especially if it seems like it will change yearly and any savings are negligible. Add in broken pieces out of warranty and it becomes not worth fixing at that point.
I agree this is for the IOUs to kill solar, but killing off all the jobs will lead to the 'poor' solar installers/companies protesting this so that's probably a good thing. The work will dry up instantly overnight like other states and per one of the articles, doesn't lead to any path to sustainable solar (or any solar anymore) moving forward to hit lower emissions energy policy.
The IOUs will get the fixed costs after the grandfathering on the old NEM 1.0 and NEM 2.0 rates are sunset. They don't really expect to collect much from the NEM 3.0 and NEM 4.0 cohorts. But they do want residents to stop installing new solar since the market has a glut of daytime production and not enough batteries to phase things past dusk.
In the future, the IOUs will have almost a million California homeowners (aka rich jerks as the IOUs have painted) paying wildly expensive fixed costs. They will use this implicit tax to offset the waste generated on the commercial/utility side.
A bunch of people not employed by the IOUs losing their jobs? That's a sacrifice the IOU's are willing to make.