Crazy or no brainer? Trade 2018 LR RWD for 2023 SR RWD?

[hurjio]

I am debating whether to put in an order now for a Standard Range RWD now and hope it qualifies for the $7500 Federal EV rebate next year. I know there's a lot of unknowns and questions regarding whether it will even qualify w/the battery component requirements and being from China yada yada.

I live in southern CA and have a 2018 Long Range RWD Model 3 w/EAP that I would get rid of if I get this Standard Range Model. It is our family's secondary car (have a 2022 MYLR for primary). We wouldn't really use the M3 for road tripping and we generally don't drive that much (our 2018 M3 has under 18k miles). I am usually not one to buy and sell cars often (previous to 2018 M3 I drove a 1998 Mercedes since 2003) and make decisions off financial logic, so I am looking for some opinions.

After tax and rebates, the 2018 M3 came out to about $52k and I put in maybe $1k in tint/accessories, so we'll say $53k in cost. Right now if I sell it I think I can get $45-$50k for it, but I'm aware used car market is softening and price will probably be lower by early 2023. A 2022/2023 M3SR in the way I would configure it right now (no EAP) would come out to approx $53k after tax but before potential federal rebate.

Here's how I see the differences between the two:

2018 LR RWD
- 90% charge gives ~264miles
- still on original tires
+ has EAP
+ can supercharge slightly faster (low priority for me as it wouldn't be our road tripping car)
+ sound system (not important to me)
+ faster acceleration (4.9s last I read)
+ radar/vision autopilot

2022/2023 SR RWD
- only autopilot, no EAP
- vision only autopilot
- slower acceleration (5.8s)
+ can charge 100% daily and gives 272 miles
+ LFP battery longevity/safety
+ heat pump
+ lithium 12v battery
+ new center console design
+ Ryzen processor
+ power trunk
+ chrome delete trim
+ double pane glass
+ overall new car perks - new vehicle warranty / no wear and tear / new tires

Any other differences I'm missing? Should I make the trade even if the federal rebate isn't guaranteed? If the federal rebate ends up applying to the M3SR (~$45k after rebate), is it still worth it if I can only get $40-45k for my 2018 M3LR RWD?

 

[golfcart]

That's a tough call. Probably depends how comfortable you are being out of warranty on the Tesla I think both cars have their advantages and disadvantages. If you can do almost an even swap after taxes, fees, and rebates I might lean towards the 2023 personally but I don't think either is a bad choice.

 

[RayK]

My opinion is that it would be folly to assume that a 2023 M3 MiC would qualify for any federal rebate/credit that has yet to be enacted. So, as long as you can financially handle buying the new car at it's full price without any undue strain, you're down to the list of pros and cons you've highlighted. If it were me (out of warranty 2018 LR RWD w/FSD @ 25K miles; 268 miles @ 90%), I would hold on to my car. It's paid for already, has premium connectivity, has radar (don't trust that cameras alone can do the job), probably costs lower to insure than a new car, definitely costs lower to license than new. Sure I'll be needing a set of tires in about 2 years given my driving habits of late but at least it will be cheaper than buying a whole new car.

Since it sounds like you really don't need a new car at the moment (it would be your secondary vehicle), I say wait another year or two. By then the EV rebate/credit should have ironed itself out and you'll be in a better position to judge whether or not to pull the trigger. Yes, maybe by then new car prices will have gone up and the used vehicle market will have returned to "normal". Who knows, could be that Tesla finally releases the Model 2 and that might be a better value/option.

 

[hurjio]

My opinion is that it would be folly to assume that a 2023 M3 MiC would qualify for any federal rebate/credit that has yet to be enacted. So, as long as you can financially handle buying the new car at it's full price without any undue strain, you're down to the list of pros and cons you've highlighted. If it were me (out of warranty 2018 LR RWD w/FSD @ 25K miles; 268 miles @ 90%), I would hold on to my car. It's paid for already, has premium connectivity, has radar (don't trust that cameras alone can do the job), probably costs lower to insure than a new car, definitely costs lower to license than new. Sure I'll be needing a set of tires in about 2 years given my driving habits of late but at least it will be cheaper than buying a whole new car.

Since it sounds like you really don't need a new car at the moment (it would be your secondary vehicle), I say wait another year or two. By then the EV rebate/credit should have ironed itself out and you'll be in a better position to judge whether or not to pull the trigger. Yes, maybe by then new car prices will have gone up and the used vehicle market will have returned to "normal". Who knows, could be that Tesla finally releases the Model 2 and that might be a better value/option.

Unfortunately, I only got premium connectivity for 1 year. Took delivery Oct 2018.

 

[RayK]

Unfortunately, I only got premium connectivity for 1 year. Took delivery Oct 2018.

Got mine July 3rd, 2018; I put my order in just before the cut-off date. Given that I tend to hang onto my cars for some time (drove a 2000 BMW 323i for 18 years but owned it for 19), I thought it might save me around $2000 over the life of the 3. It was one of the reasons why I bought my car when I did. If I had known that the AWD would finally be available several months later, I might have delayed the purchase and ended up paying more $$$$. I was initially interested in the AWD thinking that it might be useful for trips to Tahoe but my skiing days have drastically dropped off over the last 20 years. Besides, I've mainly been a fair-weather skier since the '80s, given the choice of when to take a trip.

I guess it's what @golfcart brought up: how confident are you owning a fairly new EV design that's out of basic warranty coverage? I think most automotive pundits would say to never buy the first year model of any car. There's too much unknown that's baked into the design. I'd qualify that the early 2018 models are within that one year; according to Wiki, Tesla's first production 3 rolled off the assembly line July 7, 2017. Mine was birthed June 2018. Yes, Tesla has made changes (improvements?) during the 5+ years the 3 has been in production but I think many of those changes were cost-cutting moves and not something which fixed a problem. Some changes have been made in the name of "efficiency"; adopting the use of a heat pump instead of using decades-old compressor technology, for example. Using double-pane glass is supposed to reduce cabin noise and improve thermal insulation, requiring less work of the A/C system and therefore improving the car's drivable range.

Hard to say what would be the "better" value. Hanging on to a potential money pit now that your basic warranty is due to expire in a couple of months or potentially shelling out more money to essentially get warranty coverage for another 4 years. Again, were it me, I'd be comfortable keeping my 2018 until it started to become a financial liability. I haven't had to spend much money on it in the four years of owning it. I did buy EAP and FSD after a year as I got sucked into the tech once I did a free trial offer but other than buying two tires and a preemptive replacement of the 12V battery, no major issues.

 

[Adam3]

+~10% for tax/title/license

 

[ElectricNerd]

The battery for the SR+ being made in China won’t qualify for the tax rebate. Take a look at the battery requirements in the proposed bill.

 

[FloridaGary]

I am debating whether to put in an order now for a Standard Range RWD now and hope it qualifies for the $7500 Federal EV rebate next year. I know there's a lot of unknowns and questions regarding whether it will even qualify w/the battery component requirements and being from China yada yada.

I live in southern CA and have a 2018 Long Range RWD Model 3 w/EAP that I would get rid of if I get this Standard Range Model. It is our family's secondary car (have a 2022 MYLR for primary). We wouldn't really use the M3 for road tripping and we generally don't drive that much (our 2018 M3 has under 18k miles). I am usually not one to buy and sell cars often (previous to 2018 M3 I drove a 1998 Mercedes since 2003) and make decisions off financial logic, so I am looking for some opinions.

After tax and rebates, the 2018 M3 came out to about $52k and I put in maybe $1k in tint/accessories, so we'll say $53k in cost. Right now if I sell it I think I can get $45-$50k for it, but I'm aware used car market is softening and price will probably be lower by early 2023. A 2022/2023 M3SR in the way I would configure it right now (no EAP) would come out to approx $53k after tax but before potential federal rebate.

Here's how I see the differences between the two:

2018 LR RWD
- 90% charge gives ~264miles
- still on original tires
+ has EAP
+ can supercharge slightly faster (low priority for me as it wouldn't be our road tripping car)
+ sound system (not important to me)
+ faster acceleration (4.9s last I read)
+ radar/vision autopilot

2022/2023 SR RWD
- only autopilot, no EAP
- vision only autopilot
- slower acceleration (5.8s)
+ can charge 100% daily and gives 272 miles
+ LFP battery longevity/safety
+ heat pump
+ lithium 12v battery
+ new center console design
+ Ryzen processor
+ power trunk
+ chrome delete trim
+ double pane glass
+ overall new car perks - new vehicle warranty / no wear and tear / new tires

Any other differences I'm missing? Should I make the trade even if the federal rebate isn't guaranteed? If the federal rebate ends up applying to the M3SR (~$45k after rebate), is it still worth it if I can only get $40-45k for my 2018 M3LR RWD?

Try Carbuyerusa.com for a sale quote. I have a 2018 Midrange and thanks to the pandemic, only 13k miles on the odometer. Currently being offered 47.3K, but 2 weeks ago the offer was 50k and I should have jumped on it. I can buy a standard range M3 for $49.4k and have a brand new car without car payments. It's a no brainer and if the Senate passes the EV incentive, I'll come out more ahead.

 

[fiveten]

I think everyone should have at least one Tesla vehicle on order at all times. $100 deposit to lock in some prices is a good idea.

 

[ElectricNerd]

I think everyone should have at least one Tesla vehicle on order at all times. $100 deposit to lock in some prices is a good idea.

It’s $250 for the deposit.

 

[hurjio]

I think everyone should have at least one Tesla vehicle on order at all times. $100 deposit to lock in some prices is a good idea.

Yeah, $250 non refundable now. Still prob a small price to pay from risk-reward standpoint.

 

[hurjio]

Try Carbuyerusa.com for a sale quote. I have a 2018 Midrange and thanks to the pandemic, only 13k miles on the odometer. Currently being offered 47.3K, but 2 weeks ago the offer was 50k and I should have jumped on it. I can buy a standard range M3 for $49.4k and have a brand new car without car payments. It's a no brainer and if the Senate passes the EV incentive, I'll come out more ahead.

Yeah, I got a quote from them. Think it was in $47xxx range. Driveway.com gave me highest so far $49xxx.

 

[RedModel3]

I see so many people asking about trading their car as soon as the warranty expires. But in reality, isn't this a behavior that was learned during the ICE age? So many more things could go wrong and there was so much service required, that an older ICE car really could be expensive to maintain. But with EV's, there's not much really as far as everyday things that could go wrong.

2018 LR RWD, just out of warranty, paid for, and I plan to drive this thing as long as possible. Just had a fender bender and soon it will look like new. If I were to get another car, I'd lose lifetime premium connectivity, EAP, self-dimming mirrors, and some other things I can't think of right now. Of course there is newer tech, but there will always be newer tech.

I say wait until this law actually passes, and then decide.

 

[jjrandorin]

The "mess" that was thousands of people trying to delay their orders because they thought they might get a tax credit was so bad for tesla, they instituted a policy to cancel orders that people delay more than once.

People ARE going to try doing this again, and tesla will be aware that people will try to do this again, coming up with all sorts of fake "reasons" why they cant take delivery of cars they ordered right now, until after the beginning of the year.

If someone thinks they are going to order now, and can somehow guarantee they wont take delivery of their order till next year, without it getting canceled, they are likely in for a rude awakening (and we will see all sorts of posts here about how "unfair" tesla is because "I couldnt take delivery of my car for XXX / YYY reason and they canceled my order !!!1111!!!111!1!!1"

IMO it would be extremely silly to order now and think you are not going to take delivery before the end of the year, regardless of what the lead time say (people are going to try to move their orders in droves), and tesla is VERY likely to increase pricing to absorb at least some of that money back (like most companies do when there is some sort of credit like this... see solar companies).

Any decision about this needs to be made as if the tax credit does not exist. It should not factor into any decision making, and should be "oh thats nice if I get it", at least until its fully implemented, etc. Anything else is folly, imo.

If you want a new car for some reason, do the comparison without "Oh and I am also gonna get this credit!". The only way you are going to guarantee yourself getting that credit is ordering the car after its fully known what qualifies, what doesnt, and what it looks like.

 

[hurjio]

Good point. I wasn’t around for last year’s mess so wasn’t aware how it went. Thanks for the insight.

 

[ElectricNerd]

I don’t regret at all getting our Teslas this year. They are so fun to drive!!

 

[GregD60]

Homelink costs extra on the new cars, so add a few hundred dollars if you want it.

 

[OlaM]

If it's your secondary car, run it into the ground IMO.

 

[VT_EE]

I see so many people asking about trading their car as soon as the warranty expires. But in reality, isn't this a behavior that was learned during the ICE age? So many more things could go wrong and there was so much service required, that an older ICE car really could be expensive to maintain. But with EV's, there's not much really as far as everyday things that could go wrong.

2018 LR RWD, just out of warranty, paid for, and I plan to drive this thing as long as possible. Just had a fender bender and soon it will look like new. If I were to get another car, I'd lose lifetime premium connectivity, EAP, self-dimming mirrors, and some other things I can't think of right now. Of course there is newer tech, but there will always be newer tech.

I say wait until this law actually passes, and then decide.

I thought all the Model 3’s got self dimming side mirrors again. Am I wrong?

 

[BigNick]

Any decision about this needs to be made as if the tax credit does not exist. It should not factor into any decision making, and should be "oh thats nice if I get it", at least until its fully implemented, etc. Anything else is folly, imo.

Agreed. I ordered my 2022 M3P in early November 2021. Tesla’s lending partners required proof that my previous auto loan was paid off, despite selling my used S to a dealer two months prior. I couldn’t get the documents from my credit union quickly enough, and my first VIN got yoinked.

I didn’t delay anything on purpose and once assigned a new VIN, I took delivery in early December 2021 without regard for any rebate, which never materialized anyway.

Had the credit snafu happened now or closer to 2023, my order might have been outright cancelled, costing me an extra $250 (plus any price increases between the first order and the second) and I would have been put at the end of the queue.

Admittedly the M3P queue is shorter than that of other Model 3 varieties.