hockeythug
Active Member
Circumstantial evidence but this makes perfect sense after the fact as the second row seats are a main issue.
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Delay in model X launch?
- Thread starter Eds
- Start date
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- Model X model x launch
Circumstantial evidence but this makes perfect sense after the fact as the second row seats are a main issue.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
You stole my thought bubble. Stop that!
I agree - I didn't hear anything to indicate that they were working on design issues, only supplier issues.
gizmoboy
Member
They didn't drop shipments from 55 to 50. They dropped guidance from 55 to 50-55. The cynical can say they will only hit the low end of their range, but the high end of their range is still the old guidance. Might be 50, 52, 55. Might also be 48 or 57.
The rear disc brake appears to be off center compared to the front disc. I certainly hope this isn't a production candidate. I'm tired of these misalignments!
Infeasible. There's no way the test driver would wear a plain colored shirt. You won't fool this crowd.
Thank you Cosmacelf for your analysis on Eds vs. the conference call. Your points below seem plausible and the 5k drop in guidance lower limit doesn't mean Eds' pessimism on Model X shipments could be completely discounted yet either. However, Eds also has more claims than that one message, which we must consider. His/her later tirades about location were probably an attempt to disguise, so the Futuris connection speculation by others seems plausible.
That said, if I'm reading the commentary right only one half of Eds initial post is supported by Elon's comments? Thus casting a doubt on how good Eds' information is, if he/she has any: Supplier issues were corroborated by Elon, but OTOH he seems to have denied the falcon wings part?
As I've not seen the Q2 transcript yet, the only falcon wings mention I recall comes from the Q1 transcript:
That said, if I'm reading the commentary right only one half of Eds initial post is supported by Elon's comments? Thus casting a doubt on how good Eds' information is, if he/she has any: Supplier issues were corroborated by Elon, but OTOH he seems to have denied the falcon wings part?
As I've not seen the Q2 transcript yet, the only falcon wings mention I recall comes from the Q1 transcript:
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Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive OfficerI don't want to sort of name specific suppliers, but our biggest challenges are with the second row seat, which is, it's an amazing seat, like a sculptural work of art, but a very tricky thing to get right. The (63:53) door actually seems to probably not be a critical path item. There are some interior components, interior trim that are possibly (64:08) on a critical path. But it's always hard to say exactly what lies in a critical path because it tends – these things tend to play schedule leapfrog and it's kind of a set of constraints that one day is this constraint, then the next day it's another constraint.
The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky. So, if a supplier has unexpected challenges which can range from force majeure to simply having to redo a design because the initial design was wrong. But when you have a complex product like the Model S with thousands of – that's dependent on thousands of suppliers, you can say that the pace of progress is determined by the thousand least lucky and slowest. But if we knew in advance which one of those would be, we would take action. So the – yeah, it's -
The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky. So, if a supplier has unexpected challenges which can range from force majeure to simply having to redo a design because the initial design was wrong. But when you have a complex product like the Model S with thousands of – that's dependent on thousands of suppliers, you can say that the pace of progress is determined by the thousand least lucky and slowest. But if we knew in advance which one of those would be, we would take action. So the – yeah, it's -
OK so falcon wing seems mentioned too and Eds position seems quite in line with what Elon says? Design changes included?
I am upping Eds' plausibility as a non-troll at least. Whether or not his/her conjecture/speculation is accurate I don't know.
Why Model X design studio is not online yet? I can only think of three possible explanations
a) Car’s final design is not ready
b) Design is ready, but they still have to fine tune prices, so they don’t want to commit
c) They don’t want to cannibalize Model S sales
What do you think
a) Car’s final design is not ready
b) Design is ready, but they still have to fine tune prices, so they don’t want to commit
c) They don’t want to cannibalize Model S sales
What do you think
What about the reason they stated, that they don't want to reveal final details until it's ready to ship.
mikes_fsd
Banned
pvogel
Member
If you are tired of waiting, cancel your reservation. If you look at any one cause, Y, of a delay and say 'was that Y worth my three+ year wait?' the answer (with the possible exception of the falcon wing doors after you use them for a while) is inevitably going to be no. But when you look at the whole car, and the elegance with which various common problems with making full utility of an SUV have been solved and all the benefits of a pure EV, and ask, 'was the model X worth the wait'? then the answer will almost inevitably be yes, just as it was for Model S.
Peter+
hockeythug
Active Member
The company Eds is involved with, Futuris Automotive, who makes the seats, moved into a building 15 minutes from the Fremont factory in Newark.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...aker-futuris-ramps-up-in-newark-reshores.html
Thanks for the article - it was very interesting. Just in Time manufacturing means that they are very closely tied with Tesla's supply chain. Also found it interesting that 80% of the materials will be locally sourced. Tesla is dispensing the myth that manufacturing can't be done efficiently/cheaply in North America.
