anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Answer to question is to check the Canada threads in the North America forum!
International Centre delivery experiences
International Centre delivery experiences
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Deliveries have ceased - where are all the cars going?
- Thread starter eprosenx
- Start date
Not to beat a dead horse, but take a look at the main VIN assignment forum. VIN Assignment Very hard to find an entry where someone got their car this month. Even weirder is someone who is scheduled for delivery in late June - which means Tesla not trying very hard to delay shipments until Q3. Deliveries setting up to be just awful which means either production is awful, or finished car inventory is exploding - which Tesla cannot afford to do while laying off 9% of their people.
I was supposed to get my car last sunday June 10. On Sat night i was contacted to say they found a significant defect and my car wouldnt be available. Another car was supposed be enroute from Freemont and was supposed to arrive today. Initial communications with Tesla were ok. They were very sorry etc but could not confirm Thursday (today) as apparently they could not track the vehicle. Hmmmm As the days wore on the comms have deteriorated to the point where they have gone completely silent. It seems to me while they have ramped production, they have not ramped logistics to deal with it and are leaving customers blind and quite frankly disallusioned.
Any car you waiting delivery in Texas has had its VIN assigned to the owner and paid for. Tesla will tell you they will not put a car on a trailer headed for this state unless it is fully funded. I've always thought a staging area in Oklahoma would have been great for Tesla to do, but their process is their process.
We know that production is not awful. There are numerous reports of multiple car carriers loading continuously throughout the day. Your example of one person taking delivery at the end of June does not support your assertion that "they're not trying very hard to delay shipments," since, of course, it's only one data point when we would normally expect a whole slew of deliveries in any normal month (June is not normal due to both the Canadian and US tax credit situations). I also don't see how the growing inventory and the 9% management layoffs are related. Company restructuring has been known for a while and should be taken as a positive sign for gross margin and operational efficiency. I don't expect to see a big boom in US VIN assignments until the last week of June - or perhaps even the first week of July.
trunkmonkey
Member
I just looked at my Calendar and noticed we are 16 days away from July 1st. If this is indeed the magical date that Tesla needs to wait until to push the full $7,500 tax credit to the end of the year -- and some of you posit that they are delaying USA deliveries until then -- I would say I 100% agree.
It is in just over 2 weeks.. I promise you EM's credit is AT LEAST that good.
Honestly I'm more worried about the " Tesla said I would get $7,500 back from the Feds so I stretched to buy a Model 3 but I didn't have enough tax liability to get the full credit that I was totally banking on" crowd.
Thankfully in Q1 2019 Tesla can sell as many cars as possible and they would still all get the full credit.
It is in just over 2 weeks.. I promise you EM's credit is AT LEAST that good.
Honestly I'm more worried about the " Tesla said I would get $7,500 back from the Feds so I stretched to buy a Model 3 but I didn't have enough tax liability to get the full credit that I was totally banking on" crowd.
Thankfully in Q1 2019 Tesla can sell as many cars as possible and they would still all get the full credit.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
That crossed my mind. There could be some odd delivery behavior from Tesla as they try to navigate the tax credit expiration.
trunkmonkey
Member
I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. The tax credit will be cut in half starting in 2019, then half again for Q3 and Q4 of 2019, then gone.
Yes but 16 cars is basically nothing. If you believe they are making 3,500 to 5,000 cars per week, but only delivering more like 2,000 per week, that means 1500 to 3000 per week stacking up somewhere. 16 is less than one hours production....
I am afraid I dont agree. I have seen some notes about car carriers but think about what the volume would have to be from Fremont. 2,000 S/X per week plus 3,500 M3 a week is 5,500 total. 7 days a week, 12 hours a day, 8 cars a truck is 8 trucks an hour every hour. No one is reporting truck loads in that volume that I know of.
Model S and X are mostly shipped out of the north end of the factory. The reports in this thread are only of the south lot, which is primarily Model 3, with some S and X mixed in. You can see still images of trucks coming and going from both the north and south sides of the factory on Google Streetview. Recent reports range from 4 to 12+ car carriers at any given time throughout the day, with many pictures also showing trucks arriving and departing as others are loading. Only during the recent shutdown was there a complete lull in car carrier activity, as the lot was empty. The south lot is full today with 4 carriers loading at 9:30am local time this morning.
I am taking delivery tomorrow 6/15 in Dedham, MA. I was originally hoping to do it earlier in the week, but the earliest delivery slots available were for tomorrow. I don't know how fast they can deliver cars in Dedham, but deliveries appear to be happening as fast as they can manage this week.
BTW Tesla got 250 service centers max. If each got 16 cars that is a week production
Any other got a guess to loc of secret cars??
Something doesn’t add up here IMHO. Why not invite more as Elon said they were going to do in a recent tweet? Even if they invite now they can delivery after July 1 and not endanger the credit. If delivery is 4-6 weeks they only have a few days left to hit the May-July windows AND take care of the backlog. On top of all that there are still a lot of early invites that haven’t even been invited to order a D/P model.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
can't see the forest for the tree.
Raleigh is 43rd largest metro area in the US meaning there are 42 locations bigger than that. Some of them way way bigger because some states have state level EV credits/rebates on top of the size/population differences.
16 cars at one tiny service center says there are way more elsewhere.
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Don't forget that Elon is on Elon time!
In another thread specifically dealing with the May - July window, it was pointed out that they have until next Tuesday, 6/19, to fit within the 6 week window or Tuesday, 7/3 to fit within 4 weeks. So, they could theoretically send out invites soon and still make it.
Or, they may begin producing cars based on prior order statistics prior to sending out invites and send invites after July 1st and it won't take 4-6 weeks for delivery.
Or, the May - July window will be pushed back. It is just an estimate and not an obligation (my manager had a 4/18 order date and is still waiting, were in Los Angeles). Though delaying the window further would certainly generate bad-will with customers and negative press.
There's a lot of "what ifs" and "or's" in this situation unfortunately.
They have no need to invite more people to configure if they had a sufficient number of people configure and order AWD and/or performance versions. It is entirely possible that they have well over a month's worth of those to build before there is a need to invite more people.
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