This will be a good way for Tesla to prioritize US/CN orders for the SR...buyers who hand Tesla the pure-margin EAP option atop their base SR move to the front of the SR US/CN line (regardless of reservation date). It'll be interesting to see if Tesla first delivers SRs just within CA, or if there's really nothing to troubleshoot about the $35k SR which warrants local deliveries first. Metal roof could be a good reason to keep initial builds of SR close to Fremont though, I suppose.
That said, no chance Tesla chooses not to sell a $35k SR, at least for a little while. The PR backlash would not be worth raising the price even to $35,001. I suspect $35k SR will exist only as long as existing reservations take to fulfill, and maybe just maybe for a short time they will open up a $35k for new reservations (but I doubt it...no obligation to do so).
Good analysis. I'll add more thoughts.
Truthfully, Tesla can just kick the can down the road forever on the $35K because they can just ship LR+ to the rest of the world which has ridiculous pent up demand.
Tesla in 1H2019 is going to announce 1 config of the international Model 3. P Model, P Option. When the first year demand is going to be in the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, why mess with a new body, new battery pack, new interior. This screams nothing but RISK RISK RISK RISK - for LESS MONEY?
I'm not trying to upset SR holdouts in anyway - I'm an economist - I just have to look at what makes sense.
The value play for SR holdouts should be:
Absolute cost is a concern:
LR Model 3 before end of year for max tax credit. OR Used LR Model 3 from someone trading up before end of year.
Best 'value' to those who can stretch.
Dual Motor Model 3. $5000 for dual motor and 1 second reduction in 0-60 is a steal. It was a super steal at $4,000. $5,000 is just a regular steal. Watch Tesla creep this up to $5,500 or $6,000 if production exhausts $2,500 deposits.
As we get closer to the the end of the year and demand outstrips supply..
I expect prices to go up.