Interesting dilemma for those taking delivery this month especially and beyond. With more evidence of HW4 rolling out and Investor Day on the 1st. Unless you need a car right now, seems like potentially a bad time to buy. There will always be something new for sure but new cameras, better cameras, HW4 computer and radar seems like a pretty big leap forward in the hardware suite and the foundation for the next generation of cars. I’m really hoping March 1st brings some good answers but not banking on it, ha.
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Discussion: HW.4 Suite - Availability, retrofit, suitability etc.
- Thread starter SageBrush
- Start date
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Unless a prospective buyer is a fan of FSD, most of the supposed improvements seem irrelevant. Most Tesla buyers probably wouldn't even notice the changes from present models.
On the other hand, anyone interested in FSD will probably want to wait to see how the new versions shake out. Right now, all we peons have is a hodgepodge of unsubstantiated rumors.
I am expecting to take delivery on a MYLR in the next couple months. HW4 may be coming "soon," but I doubt it will be appearing in M3 and MY until much later in the year. By then I would expect prices to increase, especially after the recent cuts. Since I am not really interested in FSD, I would rather take the discount than pay several thousand dollars more for HW4. From that standpoint, I think it is still a good time to buy.
I don’t know about it not being a big deal for non-FSD people. Better cameras and more seems like they would benefit all owners. Especially the new heating elements. Plus I would imagine radar would be used for basic Autopilot. Possibly would be used in the future USS replacement feature.
If you wanna keep your car longer than 5 years, seems like getting the big hardware refresh would be help keep the car more relevant, longer.
I do agree that it will probably take longer to come out than whatever is expected and that prices will go back up some more.
That depends on a couple of things.If the connection is already there, isn't it possible for the 2023 models to buy a replacement radar module and install it in order to have radar capability for HW3.
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1. If you talk about the new radar, it would depend on whether Tesla includes the driver for the radar in the HW3 firmware (Firmwares for HW3 and HW4 will be specific to that HW, so HW3 and HW4 needs different firmware)
2. If you talk about retrofitting an "old" radar onto a car with HW3, yes it would certainly be possible to install the radar and plug it in.
BUT.
1. Even in cars with the radar, that radar is currently not being used, even cars with radar relies on vision only right now.
2. If Tesla decides to turn the radar on in newer versions of the firmware for HW3 again, it might not work anyway because of variant config.
Now i dont KNOW for sure, that Tesla does this, but i know most other auto manufacturers have a "List of features enabled" in every car, and if a feature is not set as enabled, then it will not work, no matter if all of that hardware is there. (Needs codes to enable, these codes are heavily encrypted so you can not just enable stuff yourself)
My previous car had sign reading, where it read the speed signs and shows the speed of the last one it saw. When that model got an update, they changed it so that this was a paid extra feature, so they just disabled this feature in software, and you had to pay to have it activated.
I would imagine that any "No radar" Tesla will probably NOT be radar capable if they turn on the radar's again, and you have retrofitted one. (Maybe possible with a visit to Tesla workshop though)
And possibly for good reason. The radar probably needs calibrating after installation, if you slap a radar on, and it was enabled, it might not be calibrated for your particular car, and so, it would/could give false readings to the car, which would potentially be dangerous.
So you are saying that Tesla pushing my delivery date back from last week of March to "May - June" might be a good thing.
Surely does not feel so, right now though
Yes I think it is a good thing that your delivery date is pushed back to May-June because I think at Investor Day they will just announce that HW4 will be available on the S and X models only with the hope it will arrive by May-June builds.So you are saying that Tesla pushing my delivery date back from last week of March to "May - June" might be a good thing.
Surely does not feel so, right now though
The risk of taking delivery in May-June is mainly the status of the EV tax credit but also the status of what loan rates will be. I mean auto loan rates are already skyhigh (mid 5%) and will only continue to rise as the Fed continues to hike rates even if it is only 25 basis points at each Fed meeting. By June the auto loan rates could be 6%-6.5%. So in exchange for getting HW4, you would also potentially lose $3750 off the EV credit and pay higher auto loan rates than currently.
Confused as to why it would matter that HW4 is available for X and S, i am buying a MY.
All of the stuff with EV tax credit and loans is not as relevant for me, i live in Europe, we dont have any EV tax credit programs, and i am paying the car "in cash".
Here the price for an EV is "(Base Price + What the dealer needs to get) + 25% VAT" and no incentive programs at all.
I have ordered a MY LR with 19" wheels, 5 seater, in blue, it has trailer hitch (Can not be had without here) and the price i am going to pay is equivalent to $62.685
Since i ordered, they actually raised the price by $500, but i dont know if this is because of changing currency rates.
Since you are not USA and are paying in all cash then you have nothing to worry about.
Yesterday I got vin assignment for my Y.LR est. delivery 2nd of Mar with a note from Tesla app that the USS wont be available for my vin and FSD will be all camerasIf this is your first Tesla, with the Tesla discount and the IRA tax credit,
you get a very great deal, and I would keep my order and buy it on a heartbeat.
If you have already a Tesla, and feel the need to get a new one, because you have a high mileage,
or the warranty is expiring soon, or other raisons, the Tesla discount and the IRA tax credit
are certainly a good incentive to get a new one.
Otherwise, waiting for the new HW4 hardware will certainly help
for getting a higher resale value in the future, but nobody know
when the HW4 will be delivered. From today news, it is possible that
the Model S and X will get it first, and might already have it installed.
And maybe the Model 3 'Project Highland' and the Model Y might get it
in six months, like September, or by the end of the year for the 2004 model.
However, if you have experience of the current FSD Beta, the HW4 would
not provide too more major changes on highway driving, except may be
for curvy roads, where a faster processing could provide improvements.
I think the HW4, with additional cameras, in particular at the front of the car,
if this is really the case, would essentially improve city driving such as making
left turns,
Honestly, a major change that would make me getting a new car would be
to have a major increase in range, but it doesn't seems to be occuring soon.
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There was also talk about the Model 3 facelift, with new wing mirrors containing a tri-band GPS.
Looks like HW4 is now on Model S and X per ev-cpo.com - you can search for new Ses and Xes and see several now show to have HW4 - these look to have been released for sale last night. Per the interwebs, these will have the UPDATED cameras (i.e. higher res, different viewing angles, etc.) but no additional cameras. They will also have the new computer....no word on the radar. As expected, no HW4 showing up on 3/Y yet.
So what is the deal with these new S/X that just went on sale?
They will have the new HW4 computer and updated cameras (but in the same locations). Will they have the radar?
And then down the line another update is rumoured to add cameras in new locations.
So will there be these S/X that are 50-75% towards HW4 and then ones later on that are full HW4 with more cameras (and radar if these ones don't have radar)?
Will these S/X available now be able to get the additional cameras or will they forever be left in some "half way there" state of HW4?
Seems an odd way to do things if this is really how it is going to go.
They will have the new HW4 computer and updated cameras (but in the same locations). Will they have the radar?
And then down the line another update is rumoured to add cameras in new locations.
So will there be these S/X that are 50-75% towards HW4 and then ones later on that are full HW4 with more cameras (and radar if these ones don't have radar)?
Will these S/X available now be able to get the additional cameras or will they forever be left in some "half way there" state of HW4?
Seems an odd way to do things if this is really how it is going to go.
Any answers to these questions would be highly speculative since there's so little information out about this right now.
What seems somewhat more likely is that HW4 is less impressive than was initially assumed.
It could be the beginning of a new platform which allows easier hardware changes in future models for years to come - like a universal platform that supports up to "X" number of cameras, radar support, etc. for models that require them (Cybertruck?) or even new models that come out in the years ahead without requiring another large HW change. One HW4 to rule them all.
Seems like a 4.0 and then 4.5 could be the path. I think radar if not already there could be added, seems like the wiring will be there if the HW4 comp is. So then the question is, where do the new cameras go?
Seems adding them would be at least possible once you have HW4 computer but maybe unrealistic if they require a new bumper or something like that. Their approach is always iteration and speed, so it’s not surprising to me that they would have a period of with no new camera placements and learn, then add those later. Or to simplify manufacturing the extra cameras will only be used on certain models and the existing line up will never have more.
All speculation but interested to see how this plays out.
This possible outcome definitely seems realistic based on their pursuit to simplify manufacturing, parts, etc.
Same reason why they would have a spare camera port. Giving flexibility for unreleased models and future learnings.
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