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TesslaBull
Member
I don't think 3rd row is an option on MYP. Not that Tesla's are a financially value oriented option in any way whatsoever, but I personally would NEVER fleece lease a car as it is the most expensive way possible to drive a car, and I can't justify throwing even more money away for no reason. Driving a Tesla is already a very expensive luxury splurge; making it worse by leasing is literally just wasting money with zero benefit.
MYLR price speculation in the US....
I think Tesla will raise the MYLR price another $500 very soon.
Last week's $500 raise according to Musk was because new orders outpaced production capacity by 2x.
I don't really see $500 putting a damper on orders for a $55K car.
However, what it did do was limit the configurations that will stay under $55K. Only 6 configs meet the credit requirement now.
If you want white seats, you have to get a white car. If you want tow, white car. If you want MSM, DBM or Black....no other options. Red is off the table.
It went from being able to option 2x $1000 options to a single $1000 option.
That in itself may be making things a bit simpler for Tesla to just concentrate the production runs on those 6 configs....although they still have to get through all the orders before the $500 increase.
But, if Tesla raises the price by another $500 it doesn't change the 6 configs. All 6 will still meet the credit and Tesla adds $500 per order to their revenue.
Seems like a no brainer to me.
I think Tesla will raise the MYLR price another $500 very soon.
Last week's $500 raise according to Musk was because new orders outpaced production capacity by 2x.
I don't really see $500 putting a damper on orders for a $55K car.
However, what it did do was limit the configurations that will stay under $55K. Only 6 configs meet the credit requirement now.
If you want white seats, you have to get a white car. If you want tow, white car. If you want MSM, DBM or Black....no other options. Red is off the table.
It went from being able to option 2x $1000 options to a single $1000 option.
That in itself may be making things a bit simpler for Tesla to just concentrate the production runs on those 6 configs....although they still have to get through all the orders before the $500 increase.
But, if Tesla raises the price by another $500 it doesn't change the 6 configs. All 6 will still meet the credit and Tesla adds $500 per order to their revenue.
Seems like a no brainer to me.
GreenHokie
Member
It’s not really a matter of if, but when. For sure, the MSRP on the base MYP will drop below $55K. May not happen until later this year or perhaps early 2024, but it will happen.
The only thing that is uncertain in my mind is what the critical mineral and battery component requirement (which will make up $3750 of the total available $7500 credit) will look like when the US Treasury finally releases their battery guideline in March. As it is currently written, I don’t think any manufacturer/vehicle would qualify (with the possible exception of a few Tesla vehicles equipped with the 4680 cells).
I’m in the camp that believes the US Treasury will not want to immediately disqualify and discourage essentially all manufacturers/consumers from the $3750 portion of the EV credit as soon as it is released. The obvious goal of this bill/EV credit is to encourage & accelerate the transition to EV. So, I think the US Treasury will either relax on the initial requirement/language of the battery critical materials/components, or extend the grace period before the more stringent guideline/percentage kicks in. We shall see…
My plan is to wait and see what happens with MYP pricing and the EV credit. Fortunately, I think there is zero chance the MSRP on the MYP goes back up to the $70K level that we saw in 2022. Those days of super-inflated prices by Tesla are over, IMO. So, we have essentially zero risk (and everything to gain) by waiting. As the saying goes, we are just playing with house money at this point. So, just sit back and see/enjoy how this thing plays out with zero stress!!
The only thing that is uncertain in my mind is what the critical mineral and battery component requirement (which will make up $3750 of the total available $7500 credit) will look like when the US Treasury finally releases their battery guideline in March. As it is currently written, I don’t think any manufacturer/vehicle would qualify (with the possible exception of a few Tesla vehicles equipped with the 4680 cells).
I’m in the camp that believes the US Treasury will not want to immediately disqualify and discourage essentially all manufacturers/consumers from the $3750 portion of the EV credit as soon as it is released. The obvious goal of this bill/EV credit is to encourage & accelerate the transition to EV. So, I think the US Treasury will either relax on the initial requirement/language of the battery critical materials/components, or extend the grace period before the more stringent guideline/percentage kicks in. We shall see…
My plan is to wait and see what happens with MYP pricing and the EV credit. Fortunately, I think there is zero chance the MSRP on the MYP goes back up to the $70K level that we saw in 2022. Those days of super-inflated prices by Tesla are over, IMO. So, we have essentially zero risk (and everything to gain) by waiting. As the saying goes, we are just playing with house money at this point. So, just sit back and see/enjoy how this thing plays out with zero stress!!
If this happens I would expect to see prices go up to erase most, if not all, of the benefit. I'm hoping they get the MYP under the bar at least for a short time but Tesla may be happy just cranking out as many LRs as they can.
3rd row seems like an easy way to get the tax credit for MYP. Honestly I thought Tesla would make it standard or less expensive rather than massively lowering prices.
Instead they increased the cost of the 3rd row option from $3,000 to $4,000. Maybe they are a parts supply issue? For some reason Tesla is not wanting to sell a lot of 7 seat MY.
Instead they increased the cost of the 3rd row option from $3,000 to $4,000. Maybe they are a parts supply issue? For some reason Tesla is not wanting to sell a lot of 7 seat MY.
IMO it’s the additional complexity and time to manufacturing. Their goal is volume.
Why do you believe the MYP would drop below 55k?
I'm sure the profit margins are best on the standard MYLR and its best to pump those out. The MYP are reserved for "performance oriented" folks who want to pay the extra and also want to have a less common variant. Not sure why Tesla would want it to qualify for the subsidies.
GreenHokie
Member
It’s simply the normal pricing trend of any product that is still in its early development cycle. Always more expensive in the early stages/years, when there are fewer competitors/similar products on the market. There should be no doubt that all EV’s will drop in price in the coming months & years, as more and more EV’s become available and mainstream.
I’m in the camp that believes/expects this to happen sooner, rather than much later. I think the chances are extremely good that we will see a drop in MYP pricing. So, in the case of MYP as it relates to pricing and the federal EV credit, I think it makes sense to wait since there is very little risk we will see any more significant price increases and there is a good chance the MYP will eventually qualify for some or all of the federal EV credit.
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They just dropped it 19% 2 weeks ago. What more do you expect so soon??
GreenHokie
Member
That 19% drop was a market price correction. Keep in mind, the current price is close to where the MYP was priced a few years ago… but then all that craziness happened with material shortages + supply chain issues + unprecedented demand, etc…
Things/products like this drop in price with age. So, for many of the current Tesla models, we should start seeing additional price reductions. Sure, we might see some slight increases here and there, to adjust for the prevailing market conditions. But, the general/overall trend will be a price drop.
We only need to look at history of other similar products to know price reductions are coming…
I just don't see the logic of Tesla dropping the MYP anytime soon. Its also based on competition, currently nothing in the market comes close to the MYP for a similar price. Lucid gravity will be very expensive. Lotus Eletre will cost 30-40k more than the MYP without the charging network of Tesla. Mustang Mach-E Gt is also more expensive. Tesla can easily raise their price on the MYP and still beat out the competition.
Model Y Performance price will drop under $55K when Tesla feels that they have enough cells and manufacturing capacity to make the MYP in greater numbers. I predict it will happen in June. A $3K price drop would result in a $10K lower price for 90% of buyers because of federal EV tax credit. Seems pretty obvious, no? The only reason they would NOT drop the price by $3K is if Austin is not ramped up enough yet, and Fremont can barely keep up with Model Y production to meet demand.
All that would do is move the MYLR buyers over to MYP which makes zero sense for Tesla. If someone wants a less expensive car they can purchase the LR and pack all the buyers into the LR. This is also easier for Tesla as they don't have to adjust the factories for a larger variety of products. Much easier to pump out only LRs than LRs plus Ps. Also the EV tax credit is not guaranteed past march.
It just doesn't make any sense to drop the price. Its already a bargain for the car you are getting.
GreenHokie
Member
Yep, a ramp in production/volume + improved manufacturing efficiencies and lower costs will surely keep margins high for Tesla, even if/when they decide lower the MYP price by an additional $2-3K.
Look forward to seeing the additional price drop (and more importantly for me, crossing my fingers for the new Quicksilver color to be available in the US), so I can pull the trigger on another Tesla!
Look forward to seeing the additional price drop (and more importantly for me, crossing my fingers for the new Quicksilver color to be available in the US), so I can pull the trigger on another Tesla!
The only reason they’ll drop the price is if they don’t have a backlog of orders.
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