Discussion: Model Y General Waiting room for orders placed After January 2023

[Amolpurav]

I still don't buy that theory. If they prioritize high-margin orders in Q1 and push the low-margin orders to Q2, then they're going to have a bad Q2. They'll have to build the low-margin vehicles at some point - if not now, then later, so why does it matter?

It was reported on FEB 16th that Tesla is sold out for Q1. Why are then some orders placed after Feb 16th getting their deliveries? Shouldn't they be pushed back? But that is not happening because they are higher margin orders. There will be lots of cancellations after IRS releases the guidelines and if Tesla does not qualify for full $7,500 tax credit. Many people who ordered during the price cut were on the fence to buy MY due to the price and finally when they were able to afford with lower price and additional tax credit, they went for it. Now if these people won't be getting the full tax credit, many of these will cancel the order, it's just math and economics for these people. Tesla's Q2 will still be busy as they will now have to fulfill rest of the people who decided to stick along with lower tax credit and plus new orders. The cancelled orders will be replaced by new orders which will be higher margin ones. In fact it seems their Q@ will be more stable in terms of production and delivery as the orders won't be as crazy as after price cuts.

 

[phillyspecial]

My EDD updated to 3/20-3/29 this morning. Previously it was April 17-25. This is an existing inventory car that I selected on 3/10. I was told the car was built on 3/6 at Fremont but was waiting for transportation. Hopefully it finally got picked up and is on its way.

 

[imgcs]

Best bet is to spend the $250. There inventory cars go so fast changes of getting ahold of someone at Tesla before it sells is pretty slim. I spent the extra $250 and consider it an expedited shipping charge. I had been messaging my SA about inventory cars and then when one popped up with my config and I bought it, it wasn’t surprise. They were then able to transfer the inventory car to my original order so I could keep my original pricing. Inventory car matched my config EXACTLY.

Did you hold the car from a different location? Other day, I saw one in FL with my config, I was not sure if they could transfer to my location. Anyway, it was gone in 60 seconds .

 

[LytningMcqueef]

EDD jumped a bit for me
LR/Blue/Black/19’s
ODD 1/23
Last EDD 3/14-3/31
Latest as of this morning 3/16-3/30
No VIN

Socal

EDD still staying at 3/16-3/30
No VIN yet nor text for VIN

How soon into your delivery window are you seeing VIN’s assigned?

 

[FanboyNC]

It was reported on FEB 16th that Tesla is sold out for Q1. Why are then some orders placed after Feb 16th getting their deliveries? Shouldn't they be pushed back? But that is not happening because they are higher margin orders. There will be lots of cancellations after IRS releases the guidelines and if Tesla does not qualify for full $7,500 tax credit. Many people who ordered during the price cut were on the fence to buy MY due to the price and finally when they were able to afford with lower price and additional tax credit, they went for it. Now if these people won't be getting the full tax credit, many of these will cancel the order, it's just math and economics for these people. Tesla's Q2 will still be busy as they will now have to fulfill rest of the people who decided to stick along with lower tax credit and plus new orders. The cancelled orders will be replaced by new orders which will be higher margin ones. In fact it seems their Q@ will be more stable in terms of production and delivery as the orders won't be as crazy as after price cuts.

I have to agree... that's what my inference was as well (in addition to servicing nearby areas or currently planned logistical routes for the remainder of the quarter). This is an example of someone who lives just beside the factory (ordered way late in the game when they mentioned that MYLR was sold out for the quarter).

 

[zroger73]

It was reported on FEB 16th that Tesla is sold out for Q1. Why are then some orders placed after Feb 16th getting their deliveries? Shouldn't they be pushed back? But that is not happening because they are higher margin orders. There will be lots of cancellations after IRS releases the guidelines and if Tesla does not qualify for full $7,500 tax credit. Many people who ordered during the price cut were on the fence to buy MY due to the price and finally when they were able to afford with lower price and additional tax credit, they went for it. Now if these people won't be getting the full tax credit, many of these will cancel the order, it's just math and economics for these people. Tesla's Q2 will still be busy as they will now have to fulfill rest of the people who decided to stick along with lower tax credit and plus new orders. The cancelled orders will be replaced by new orders which will be higher margin ones. In fact it seems their Q@ will be more stable in terms of production and delivery as the orders won't be as crazy as after price cuts.

My next question then becomes: Why make and deliver any lower-margin vehicles in Q1 then? Yet, that is happening - there have been plenty of $52,990 MYLR and $50,990 MYAWD made and delivered in Q1. If the focus was on margin, then why didn't Tesla push all lower-margin orders to Q2 and make and deliver only higher-margin configurations? I'm seeing MYs with plastic hubcaps coming off the assembly line and being delivered every day.

 

[imgcs]

That is true. The only way you'd go back of line is if you paid another $250 and got a new RN# in order to snag some inventory vehicle. Or if you switch to M3/S/X...which probably would require a new RN# anyway.

I am OK to spend another $250 if it is possible to transfer from one location to another location. I have not seen any cars with my configuration in NJ but found cars in OH and FL.

 

[RCDriver23]

I seem to have drawn the short stick for deliveries.

MYLR/Blue/Black/19/Tow/5 seats
Ordered on 2/12
EDD is April 24th to June 5th

My stick is slightly shorter
MYLR/White/Black/19/5 seats
OD: 2/2
Latest EDD: 4/28 - 6/9

 

[ev4robert]

My next question then becomes: Why make and deliver any lower-margin vehicles in Q1 then? Yet, that is happening - there have been plenty of $52,990 MYLR and $50,990 MYAWD made and delivered in Q1. If the focus was on margin, then why didn't Tesla push all lower-margin orders to Q2 and make and deliver only higher-margin configurations? I'm seeing MYs with plastic hubcaps coming off the assembly line and being delivered every day.

It's funny how things go full circle. Several weeks ago there were posts on this forum complaining about Tesla cranking out only the basic configurations.

 

[imgcs]

I still don't buy that theory. If they prioritize high-margin orders in Q1 and push the low-margin orders to Q2, then they're going to have a bad Q2. They'll have to build the lower-margin vehicles at some point - if not now, then later, so why does it matter? If they loaf around and don't deliver those lower-margin models before the $7,500 tax credit ends, a lot of potential buyers like me are going to give up. Much of the avalanche of orders that came in was due strictly to the price drop and tax credit - if not for those, Tesla wouldn't have got as many orders. In short, the low prices brought in that flood of orders because of price-sensitive people like me. If the tax credit ends before Tesla delivers, many, if not most of those orders will be canceled and demand will drop back down to what it was before the price drop and tax credit. It is in Tesla's best financial interest to deliver as many vehicles as possible regardless of margin before the $7,500 tax credit ends - it's better to sell two vehicles at $5,000 profit each than one vehicle at $9,000 profit.

I am on the same boat. I really don't "need" a Tesla. I am happy with my current Q7. I bought it because of the lower price so that I can sell my current car before the warranty expires. I will withdraw Tesla and get extended warranty on my current car if I don't get my full credit.

 

[bridge-player]

My next question then becomes: Why make and deliver any lower-margin vehicles in Q1 then? Yet, that is happening - there have been plenty of $52,990 MYLR and $50,990 MYAWD made and delivered in Q1. If the focus was on margin, then why didn't Tesla push all lower-margin orders to Q2 and make and deliver only higher-margin configurations? I'm seeing MYs with plastic hubcaps coming off the assembly line and being delivered every day.

I don't buy that prioritizing for profit theory either. If that is the case, I would see new expensive orders in the Bay Area being delivered ahead of the cheap ones. The observation, however, is that orders are all later than expected, independent of configurations.

And there have been virtually no MYLR in inventory in N. California for the last few weeks, while they were popping up in the Midwest.

 

[erktrek]

I don't buy that prioritizing for profit theory either. If that is the case, I would see new expensive orders in the Bay Area being delivered ahead of the cheap ones. The observation, however, is that orders are all later than expected, independent of configurations.

Indeed Hanlon's razor may apply here... although I wouldn't call it "stupidity" necessarily - maybe "growing pains" or "lack of focus".

 

[ev4robert]

Here's my take.

Tesla has a very aggressive year-over-year production goal of 50% (1.8 to 2.0 million units for 2023). In Q4/2022, they had to reduce prices to prop up lagging demand. On 1/13/2023, they had to offer further reductions in order to lever additional demand. The first 7 days following they experienced a huge spike in orders that exceeded their production capacity two-fold. If reports online are accurate, orders have tailed off dramatically since then.

Rumor has it that a significant refresh for both the MY and M3 will be introduced in 2024. Naturally, many people will delay their orders in anticipation of the new models (Osborne effect). Tesla must manage these waters very carefully. If they don't meet their 2023 production and delivery goals they will get absolutely pulverized by the market.

 

[erktrek]

Here's my take.

Tesla has a very aggressive year-over-year of 50%. In Q4/2022, they had to reduce prices to prop up lagging demand. On 1/13/2023, they had to offer further reductions in order to lever additional demand. The first 7 days following they experienced a huge spike in orders that exceeded their production capacity two-fold. If reports online are accurate, orders have tailed off dramatically since then.

Rumor has it that a significant refresh for both the MY and M3 will be introduced in 2024. Naturally, many people will delay their orders in anticipation of the new models (Osborne effect). Tesla must manage these waters very carefully. If they don't meet their 2023 production and delivery goals they will get absolutely pulverized by the market.

I thought Elon mentioned the refresh at Investor Day but can't find the quote.. otherwise here are some of those rumors. Not sure people with current orders would be willing to wait a year and half though so "Osborne-ing" should not be a factor for Tesla in 2023 into early 2024 at least.

 

[davewill]

This whole more profit thing doesn't hold water. The production schedule builds a certain number of various configurations. Since a lot of people ordered the lower-priced configs, there's a longer line for them. Someone who orders, say, a 7 seat config that happens to have more cars vs orders in line, will get it soon. It's not a matter of wanting to deliver higher priced cars, but wanting to deliver all of the cars they can.

If there is a grain of truth to the profit motive, it would be that they probably didn't change their production schedule to accomodate the large number of low-priced config orders because they believed they would deliver all the cars they made anyway.

 

[erktrek]

This whole more profit thing doesn't hold water. The production schedule builds a certain number of various configurations. Since a lot of people ordered the lower-priced configs, there's a longer line for them. Someone who orders, say, a 7 seat config that happens to have more cars vs orders in line, will get it soon. It's not a matter of wanting to deliver higher priced cars, but want to deliver all of the cars they can.

Things certainly come out in batches which makes perfect sense from a production standpoint. It's the logistics afterwards + responding to a major increase in demand + existing inventory where things can get flaky.

 

[ev4robert]

I thought Elon mentioned the refresh at Investor Day but can't find the quote.. otherwise here are some of those rumors. Not sure people with current orders would be willing to wait a year and half though so "Osborne-ing" should not be a factor for Tesla in 2023 into early 2024 at least.

I think he mentioned M3, but since then MY project name has been 'leaked'.

Personally, if my current order falls through, the silver lining will be looking forward to a brand spanking up-to-date model which I plan to keep 10-15 years (perhaps my last vehicle). After all, I am already in Q2, and like others here, don't need to purchase immediately.

 

[arbitrage000]

I am OK to spend another $250 if it is possible to transfer from one location to another location. I have not seen any cars with my configuration in NJ but found cars in OH and FL.

I think there are a few states that can interchange but mostly not. They will always list which states the car can be registered in if you go to the Tesla.com inventory listing. I don't think waitingfortesla lists them, only the DC it is headed to.

 

[arbitrage000]

I believe even if you switch your configuration you don’t go to the back of the line, but I might be wrong.

As long as the RN# stays the same you don't change position in line. However, Tesla does prioritize MYP over MYLR to some extent (last year it was to the tune of 6-9 months but now a month or two) so if you switch P to LR it may feel like you are going back a good ways but you still would be in the correct place in line with other LR orders based on the RN#.

 

[kcpd]

Bay-area buyers get flooded with cars at EOQ...just a couple weeks to go. People will be jumping the line by many weeks.

Is the delivery going to be before march31?

or Elon and team wants to hold delivery in march until the irs reduces the tax