Does using AP increase safety?

[Roger t]

This is a great thread, lots of well-reasoned arguments that have so far remained civil.

Disclosure: I do not have a Tesla, nor have I ever driven in any car that has any autonomous functions, be they AEB or higher.

We have 5 types of drivers:
a) Attentive Human - Driver breaking no laws with good reaction time
b) Inattentive Human - Driver eating/checking texts/talking on phone/screaming at kids in the back
c) Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Human driver gets in the back seat and watches as the car goes down the highway
d) Attentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Driver from a) above using AP v 7 or 8, ready to take control at any time and also scanning the road
e) Inattentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Driver from b) above using AP v 7 or 8, who has no situational awareness of where the car is and is not ready to take control in <x seconds.

We are trying to rank the 5 drivers above from safest to most dangerous. I think Elon would rank them the following

1) Attentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8)
2) Inattentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8)
3) Attentive Human
4) Inattentive Human
5) Machine (AP v7 or 8)

I think there is some healthy debate over whether 2 is safer than 3 or vice versa but that's not what I'd like to debate.

Instead, I'd like to ask how likely it is that we actually end up with driver a) from above. I'm theorizing that using AP v 7 or 8 leads to driver b) more times than driver a) i.e. a quick glance to read a text w/o AP will turn into actually responding to that text w/ AP. A quick glance at a nice view out the driver window will lead to a driver taking a perfectly framed photo of that view. A discussion about a board game will lead to the driver actually playing that board game with a fellow passenger.

This is not an easy answer because none of the statistics put out by Tesla to date answer it for the various reasons discussed above.

Speaking from personal experience, media's report on AP accidents helps to keep AP driver to remain attentive. Likely AP accidents will decline after one widely reported accident. Technology improves afterwards. People start to pay less attention, until next accident happens. In the long run safety improves, just one step at a time.

 

[sillydriver]

Speaking from personal experience, media's report on AP accidents helps to keep AP driver to remain attentive. Likely AP accidents will decline after one widely reported accident. Technology improves afterwards. People start to pay less attention, until next accident happens. In the long run safety improves, just one step at a time.

I agree. I use AP with a hand on the wheel these days, while I used to be hands off. The reason is not only the widely-publicized truck accident but also threads here about breaking mirrors on highway cones, driving off roads in Montana, etc.