Don't buy FSD for $2k more. [from 2019 - FSD upgrade not available for 2k at this time]

[mongo]

They don’t need everyone to buy on sale. My guess on champion Elon is it is just enough $$ to sqeek a profit for the Q. If they are taking down payments on the Y and production starts this year it’s a done deal.

Based on how the March 14th AP SW release goes, a chunk of the new FSD option price will likely be recognized which will help the bottom line. However, refundable deposits on vehicles only improve the cash on hand, not profitability.
Likewise, sales of option that are not yet fully implemented, so the portion of FSD that is coming later this year is also offset in the liabilities section of the financial statement.
The lines that track these offsets are "Customer deposits" and "Deferred revenue, net of current portion are the offsetting items".

 

[devildogDMD]

I am trying to figure out if I should buy it now for $2K. How is it worth more than $2K if it provides no benefit if FSD never ships. (just asking, I am on the fence about buying it.)

Going from hw2 to 3 gives features we are missing, sentry, dash cam, etc, the other is the processing power and neural network of hw3, this should increase the safety of the system even if fsd never happens.

From 2.5 to 3 the increase in features is less but the network and processing power in increased.

 

[dave999z]

I got EAP with my car. I'm going to drop the $2k now on FSD so that I spend the next two years hoping rather than dreading Tesla will roll out new FSD software features and deliver on the HW3 upgrade. It's that or spend $2k on therapy.

 

[NewTMSMan]

This is way off topic, but the service centers seem to have gotten spoilers in stock but are not great about following up quickly with all folks who have a due bill. So--at least in our area--it's been worthwhile to set up a service appointment in the app and note that you would like to have your spoiler installed. They'll then follow up with you based on whether they have them in stock or not.

Thanks, should have been clear, I have my spoiler now, was installed last week in NJ. Waited 6 months and complained often before I finally got it. Thinking this is how the HW3 upgrade experience will be. HW3 will be deployed at some random time in new cars and the threads first will be people complaining about how they picked up their car yesterday and today everyone gets HW3. Then Elon will tweet out that HW3 doesn't give any additional features unless you have FSD and if you bought FSD you will get HW3 for free anyway. Then the wait starts and if it takes them 6 months to get a spoiler to me, it will probably be at least a year after initial deployment that I have any chance for HW3, so end of 2020, beginning of 2021. By then my X and S will both have about 60k+ miles on them, the refreshed version of both cars will be coming out and they will be 4 years old and I will want new cars. I know this is all fiction, but is my view of the likely scenario

 

[Knightshade]

Thanks, should have been clear, I have my spoiler now, was installed last week in NJ. Waited 6 months and complained often before I finally got it. Thinking this is how the HW3 upgrade experience will be. HW3 will be deployed at some random time in new cars and the threads first will be people complaining about how they picked up their car yesterday and today everyone gets HW3. Then Elon will tweet out that HW3 doesn't give any additional features unless you have FSD and if you bought FSD you will get HW3 for free anyway. Then the wait starts and if it takes them 6 months to get a spoiler to me, it will probably be at least a year after initial deployment that I have any chance for HW3, so end of 2020, beginning of 2021. By then my X and S will both have about 60k+ miles on them, the refreshed version of both cars will be coming out and they will be 4 years old and I will want new cars. I know this is all fiction, but is my view of the likely scenario

The flaw in reasoning here is the spoiler is probably made by some 3rd party, and in small #s (only for P3+ buyers), and (obviously) wasn't needed to actually sell/ship the car.

HW3 is going to need to be made in massive numbers since it'll be going into every new car once it's ready, in addition to the retrofits.

 

[NukePower]

I have accumulated around 18,000 miles on my car since May 18. I love the car but as others have said, I have zero confidence at this time that FSD will be useful in the next 2 years. I use EAP and too often I need to regain control because I don’t like how it reacts (still too many phantom braking, etc...). First I need to see a perfect EAP before I give them additional money. Tesla can’t even get the auto wipers to work correctly after more than a year! I mean SpaceX can dock the Dragon capsule to the ISS but they cannot get us a reliable auto wiper system?? Get the SpaceX guys to work for Tesla Elon LOL!!

 

[Glamisduner]

I have accumulated around 18,000 miles on my car since May 18. I love the car but as others have said, I have zero confidence at this time that FSD will be useful in the next 2 years. I use EAP and too often I need to regain control because I don’t like how it reacts (still too many phantom braking, etc...). First I need to see a perfect EAP before I give them additional money. Tesla can’t even get the auto wipers to work correctly after more than a year! I mean SpaceX can dock the Dragon capsule to the ISS but they cannot get us a reliable auto wiper system?? Get the SpaceX guys to work for Tesla Elon LOL!!

Indeed, I have no impression that any FSD features I get will be ready for prime time or that the car will ever be able to fully drive itself. I mostly want the computer upgrade and new features to play with. Will it be worth 2k? Will reading and reacting to stop light feature really come out by the end of the year (If so my guess is Dec)? And when it does will it actually be useful? Who knows, I just decided to roll the dice since the price is going up. Actual real FSD is worth more than 2k, but I don't expect to see that in the lifetime of my car despite the purchase.

 

[CarterStC]

Hmm... I thought these were included only in FSD, but you say EAP.

I was inferring that if you already have EAP, if you upgrade to FSD, you'll get those additional features over the grandfathered FSD features you keep.

 

[Chris350]

The kicker will come down to new FSD features that require HW3....

Tesla will have a major PR problem if they start dropping new FSD features to new cars which came with HW3. Making those early adopters that purchased FSD wait because they don't have the hardware...

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The kicker will come down to new FSD features that require HW3....

Tesla will have a major PR problem if they start dropping new FSD features to new cars which came with HW3. Making those early adopters that purchased FSD wait because they don't have the hardware...

Not just FSD features that will require HW3.

HW2 people learned that the hard way when they didn't get Dashcam or Sentry Mode. Only HW2.5 people can have DashCam and Sentry mode.

I imagine in the future that Dashcam will do some really cool things, but only with HW3.

I certainly agree that people are taking a chance on spending $2K for FSD since we don't know how well anything under FSD is going to work. But, there is also a risk in not having some new feature that is completely unrelated to FSD.

It's fun to joke about how its all FOMO.

But, the reality is YOU WILL MISS OUT if you don't get HW3. Getting FSD is a way to get HW3. Backed by the promise of an Elon tweet.

 

[dww12]

The kicker will come down to new FSD features that require HW3....

Tesla will have a major PR problem if they start dropping new FSD features to new cars which came with HW3. Making those early adopters that purchased FSD wait because they don't have the hardware...

I don’t think we can expect to get it first. I don’t. Maybe a few months later.

 

[woodisgood]

I imagine in the future that Dashcam will do some really cool things, but only with HW3.

What do you envision?

 

[NewTMSMan]

The flaw in reasoning here is the spoiler is probably made by some 3rd party, and in small #s (only for P3+ buyers), and (obviously) wasn't needed to actually sell/ship the car.

HW3 is going to need to be made in massive numbers since it'll be going into every new car once it's ready, in addition to the retrofits.

Uh huh.... Will keep your post in mind a year or so from now

 

[happyzod]

I have accumulated around 18,000 miles on my car since May 18. I love the car but as others have said, I have zero confidence at this time that FSD will be useful in the next 2 years. I use EAP and too often I need to regain control because I don’t like how it reacts (still too many phantom braking, etc...). First I need to see a perfect EAP before I give them additional money. Tesla can’t even get the auto wipers to work correctly after more than a year! I mean SpaceX can dock the Dragon capsule to the ISS but they cannot get us a reliable auto wiper system?? Get the SpaceX guys to work for Tesla Elon LOL!!

It seems that Tesla is having cash flow issues. I'm not saying they'll go bankrupt. I'm saying that they're hurting their growth by not having enough cash to reinvest in the company. They need to raise 10b in capital and spend that money on superchargers + software developer + model Y production.

 

[Jeeps17]

Going from hw2 to 3 gives features we are missing, sentry, dash cam, etc, the other is the processing power and neural network of hw3, this should increase the safety of the system even if fsd never happens.

From 2.5 to 3 the increase in features is less but the network and processing power in increased.

You note these feature upgrades as if they are a given.

Have you seen, in writing from company management, confirmation that AP2.0 vehicles getting the HW3 AP upgrade will get access to dashcam & sentry features ?

Both of these rely on cameras that have been upgraded on v2.5 vehicles, and would definitely not be included in a HW3 CPU swap.

Maybe AP2.0 cameras can do the trick with a beefed up CPU, maybe not.

I have not yet seen Tesla confirm this anywhere, although were it true I would seriously consider buying FSD at the current discount.

The absolute radio silence from Elon & Tesla about anything AP2.0 does not reassure me, however.

 

[DanH]

I’m assuming hw3 consists of new motherboard and chips. I hope both chips (for AP and entertainment system) will be upgraded.

What about the cameras and sensors? It would definitely be awesome if those get replaced/ upgraded as well. I’m pretty sure they won’t replace those.

I’m torn with pulling the trigger.

 

[Petrlol]

I don’t think we can expect to get it first. I don’t. Maybe a few months later.

I've already decided to be content with the fact that new cars are going to have it first. I wouldn't be surprised if they announce the new hardware tomorrow saying it's going to be on cars starting in the next few weeks.

Us with FSD now will be lost in service nightmares trying to get it in stock and on the schedule.

 

[P3D_Denver]

I’m assuming hw3 consists of new motherboard and chips. I hope both chips (for AP and entertainment system) will be upgraded.

What about the cameras and sensors? It would definitely be awesome if those get replaced/ upgraded as well. I’m pretty sure they won’t replace those.

I’m torn with pulling the trigger.

HW3 will not include camera or sensor upgrades. My understading was it was just a graphics card upgrade to process video faster from the exiting cameras which in turn will recognize reality at a much faster rate and the car will make better decisions enabling true self driving.

 

[rking0122]

Just had a chat session with someone at Tesla online. I think this is an additional data point to support the notion that FSD cars get HW3 (in addition to the tweets) or at least that this representative believed it to be true. I didn’t ask the question about HW3, it was simply volunteered.

 

[outie]

Thanks, should have been clear, I have my spoiler now, was installed last week in NJ. Waited 6 months and complained often before I finally got it. Thinking this is how the HW3 upgrade experience will be. HW3 will be deployed at some random time in new cars and the threads first will be people complaining about how they picked up their car yesterday and today everyone gets HW3. Then Elon will tweet out that HW3 doesn't give any additional features unless you have FSD and if you bought FSD you will get HW3 for free anyway. Then the wait starts and if it takes them 6 months to get a spoiler to me, it will probably be at least a year after initial deployment that I have any chance for HW3, so end of 2020, beginning of 2021. By then my X and S will both have about 60k+ miles on them, the refreshed version of both cars will be coming out and they will be 4 years old and I will want new cars. I know this is all fiction, but is my view of the likely scenario

I think your timeline is not very far off based on what history tells us.

For example, he said there’s an upgrade path for MCU2 but it’s been a year with no update. Not exactly orange to orange but a data point like our cf spoiler. New cars will roll off with the new hardware first before we see a retrofit.

I think one reason they moved some EAP features to FSD is due to initial AP2 leases coming up later this year. Tesla could say we already have FSD features and it’s not vaporware.