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.../ With the exception of some Muslim and African countries, fertility rates are dropping all over the world. In most cases below replacement levels. /...
And how many of the worlds children

– Are getting a decent enough education?

– Can get decent healthcare until they’re 18? And should 18 really be the limit?

– Can get decent dental care until they’re 18? And should 18 really be the limit?

– Can get a cleft lip and palate operated by a decent cosmetic surgeon and a decent dental surgeon?

To me it’s not very surprising that people doesn’t want to bring children into this world. It’s currently not a very nice place.
 
The way we are quickly cracking the human genome, how long before humans begin living 150 to 200 years? I think there will be a tipping point around 2040-ish. There is really no reason that a human can't live that long. Right now our genetics start turning us off at around 40 years old. A little over 100 years ago most of the population on the planet only lived to around 50. Now it is more like 80 for men and 90 for women with modern medicine and modern hygiene.

The fact is that humanity tends to fill every useful habitable place on the planet as long as there is food and shelter to allow it. The reality is that there is less and less places for expansion. With birth control a woman is no longer a slave to the need to have children and they are taking advantage of that in industrialized nations. I see that as a good thing. I don't see the need for more people that Elon seems to think is necessary. Certainly if we start exiting the planet to new frontiers and much more space becomes available then it becomes much more important again. I have no fear that when that happens humanity will have as many kids as needed. Right now there are over 7 billion people on this one little planet and that wasn't true for 99.99999999% of its history. Humanity did perfectly fine for a couple hundred thousand years with just a couple million humans on the planet. With the current population you get a lot of the problems that plague our world. Mass extinctions because humanity is encroaching on those creatures territory. Massive pollution which trickles down into the food chain. Cutting down forests to provide land for more farms and people. The list goes on and on as to how damaging the massive human population is to this limited space world we have. Getting off it as fast as possible is absolutely critical as far as I am concerned and I am very happy that Elon and SpaceX is working hard to achieve just that. That will give humanity the space and resources to continue to grow like Elon seems to want.

Sorry for the rant.
 
Follow-up on post #8 above:

And I wonder how many young families on minimum wage in the US there are who are just ‘dying’ to start making children? Can you even get health care coverage that is actually worth something (including coverage for a child on the way) if you’re earning the minimum wage working ~40 hours a week? I tried googleing but couldn't find anything.
 
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Don't really want to change the topic or get into politics on a car forum. Obamacare does address some of these concerns.

Follow-up on post #8 above:

And I wonder how many young families on minimum wage in the US there are who are just ‘dying’ to start making children? Can you even get health care coverage that is actually worth something (including coverage for a child on the way) if you’re earning the minimum wage working ~40 hours a week? I tried googleing but couldn't find anything.

- - - Updated - - -

Not so sure about that. How many mobile, active and alert 90 year olds do you know? I think I know one personally. Wondering what the quality of life would be if we lived to 200.

The way we are quickly cracking the human genome, how long before humans begin living 150 to 200 years? I think there will be a tipping point around 2040-ish. There is really no reason that a human can't live that long. Right now our genetics start turning us off at around 40 years old. A little over 100 years ago most of the population on the planet only lived to around 50. Now it is more like 80 for men and 90 for women with modern medicine and modern hygiene.

Sorry for the rant.
 
I think humanity will be just fine once we lose unnecessary fear, superstition, and apathy and embrace reason, science and technology. We also need to find some way to make intentional misinformation of the masses into an unprofitable expenditure. There is currently a great business case for it, spend millions to make billions on selling products that harm the human body and the planet all the while misleading the same consumers into believing the products aren't harmful. The Tobacco industry campaigns and the Fossil fuel misinformation campaigns are both cases in point. If humanity is to make it to a Type 1 civilization, I think our best bet is to play on our strength and reduce our weaknesses. That means... strengthening our ability to solve large problems, not just things like war, disease and climate change. Strengthen our ability to solve problems in general because it's hard to tell what the next great crisis may be even if we do somehow avoid severe climate change.
 
I think humanity will be just fine once we lose unnecessary fear, superstition, and apathy and embrace reason, science and technology. We also need to find some way to make intentional misinformation of the masses into an unprofitable expenditure. There is currently a great business case for it, spend millions to make billions on selling products that harm the human body and the planet all the while misleading the same consumers into believing the products aren't harmful. The Tobacco industry campaigns and the Fossil fuel misinformation campaigns are both cases in point. If humanity is to make it to a Type 1 civilization, I think our best bet is to play on our strength and reduce our weaknesses. That means... strengthening our ability to solve large problems, not just things like war, disease and climate change. Strengthen our ability to solve problems in general because it's hard to tell what the next great crisis may be even if we do somehow avoid severe climate change.

Ah, like this:
1508538_10152132220017708_817199866_n.jpg


The Keystone Pipeline is the biggest thing happening right now.
 
For the record, I'm generally not against billionaires or capitalism. I'm fine with anyone who wants to profit from making a useful or innovative product/service. My problem is when a product clearly does harm and is not accounted for due to market failure, but then an effort is made to deceive people of it's harmfulness in order to continue to make profit, increasing the measurable harm along the way. How many lives could have been saved if the Tobacco deception campaigns never happened? It's a question worth asking. How much damage could we have prevented from severe climate change (which is looking likely at this point) if the fossil fuel deception campaign never happened?

I would like an honest, intelligent discussion on how to properly deal with market failures, including pricing negative externalities. However, an honest discussion is not what I see. I see comments boards on science articles being flooded with statements about Al Gore's private jet and the thoroughly debunked "It hasn't warmed in 15 years". Which tells me that the problem is that people are not just victims of misinformation, they WANT to be misinformed. That is a very important point. It is one thing to be misinformed and then make an effort to conquer your ignorance, that's perfectly noble. The problem comes when you are misinformed and then intentionally seek information to validate your point of view, and then spread the propaganda to others. This culture of willful misinformation makes me question on whether or not we are a worthy species of planetary governance. I am skeptical that we are. At 7 billion people, we really need to learn how to manage our resources properly and not make irreversible changes to our biosphere. That is going to really come back to bite us hard.

But, in the event humanity does die in it's cradle, which is not a guaranteed but instead a possible outcome due to reckless behavior, don't think of extinction as an unusual event. Over 99% of all species on Earth have gone extinct, so joining the vast majority would not be at all unprecedented. It's just be a shame to see something that was born out of billions of years of evolution into conscious, (mostly) rational beings capable of creating complex technology and sciences, not to mention being self-aware and seeking out ways to answer our place in the universe. It would just be such a damn shame to throw all of that away just because we didn't have the courage to stand up to a few million solipsistic morons that I refer to the "cult of ignorance". I think human life is precious and valuable and I think we are capable of great things. But there is one great thing that we MUST accomplish and that is properly maintaining not only our own species but since we are in the position of power, preserving the integrity of the biosphere as much as we can as well as not radically changing the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans.

It drives me crazy because this argument seems so damn obvious to me, and yet it strikes others as ambiguous or malevolent. I understand that people want cars, boats, energy, airplanes, food, water, buildings, electronics, jobs, etc etc etc and that is PERFECTLY FINE and I want all that stuff too, but we need to do it in a way that does not destroy the very foundation in which we stand on.

Are we cool? Cool.
 
For the record, I'm generally not against billionaires or capitalism. I'm fine with anyone who wants to profit from making a useful or innovative product/service. My problem is when a product clearly does harm and is not accounted for due to market failure, but then an effort is made to deceive people of it's harmfulness in order to continue to make profit, increasing the measurable harm along the way. How many lives could have been saved if the Tobacco deception campaigns never happened? It's a question worth asking. How much damage could we have prevented from severe climate change (which is looking likely at this point) if the fossil fuel deception campaign never happened?

I would like an honest, intelligent discussion on how to properly deal with market failures, including pricing negative externalities. However, an honest discussion is not what I see. I see comments boards on science articles being flooded with statements about Al Gore's private jet and the thoroughly debunked "It hasn't warmed in 15 years". Which tells me that the problem is that people are not just victims of misinformation, they WANT to be misinformed. That is a very important point. It is one thing to be misinformed and then make an effort to conquer your ignorance, that's perfectly noble. The problem comes when you are misinformed and then intentionally seek information to validate your point of view, and then spread the propaganda to others. This culture of willful misinformation makes me question on whether or not we are a worthy species of planetary governance. I am skeptical that we are. At 7 billion people, we really need to learn how to manage our resources properly and not make irreversible changes to our biosphere. That is going to really come back to bite us hard.

But, in the event humanity does die in it's cradle, which is not a guaranteed but instead a possible outcome due to reckless behavior, don't think of extinction as an unusual event. Over 99% of all species on Earth have gone extinct, so joining the vast majority would not be at all unprecedented. It's just be a shame to see something that was born out of billions of years of evolution into conscious, (mostly) rational beings capable of creating complex technology and sciences, not to mention being self-aware and seeking out ways to answer our place in the universe. It would just be such a damn shame to throw all of that away just because we didn't have the courage to stand up to a few million solipsistic morons that I refer to the "cult of ignorance". I think human life is precious and valuable and I think we are capable of great things. But there is one great thing that we MUST accomplish and that is properly maintaining not only our own species but since we are in the position of power, preserving the integrity of the biosphere as much as we can as well as not radically changing the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans.

It drives me crazy because this argument seems so damn obvious to me, and yet it strikes others as ambiguous or malevolent. I understand that people want cars, boats, energy, airplanes, food, water, buildings, electronics, jobs, etc etc etc and that is PERFECTLY FINE and I want all that stuff too, but we need to do it in a way that does not destroy the very foundation in which we stand on.

Are we cool? Cool.

oh I agree with you. Your second sentence goes perfectly with the picture I posted, that they are part of the misinformation propaganda problem and they benefit dearly from it and using oil is an outdated procedure.
 
I like this discussion here, TMC seems like a place with smart rational forward thinking people.

Just recently I read this article
Technology and jobs: Coming to an office near you | The Economist
which gave me a lot to think about.

Given all the automatization we will end up sooner or later in a "Leisure Society" where only 20% of the workforce is needed to supply everything to the whole population.
The article states a 20 year timeframe.

So given that scenario my thinking was that a Leisure Society would change our values as a society fundamentally again.
One of those values is Family vs. Career. I think its important to point out that its not just a random coincidence that high education, high income, and not religious affiliation leads to a very low fertility rate.

In a society where the goal to make a Career is not relevant people can focus on family life, and not only for the fact that they have time for that but also for the fact that they have certainty that they will have no trouble to provide a good life for their family and kids.

Thats my theory and I hope for the sake of humanity Im pointing in the right direction.

What really troubles my mind is not the decline of population itself, but the fact that low education, poverty and high religious affiliation leads to the highest fertility rate.
That can lead to a very dystopian society.

I recommend everyone this comedy movie. It extrapolates my last point in funny manner.
Idiocarcy
Idiocracy (2006) - IMDb
 
I have no worry of society and people getting more stupid. That is just the red light syndrome. If you run across someone doing something you consider stupid and you are focused on noticing it, it will stand out. Just watch "Beauty and the Geek" to understand that smart comes in different flavors. We are currently in the age of information. If I had children I would be focusing on teaching them how to filter through the vast amount of information that they have at their fingertips. How to distinguish good information from the vast sea of BS.

In the modern world almost anyone can get to wherever they want in society, even if their parents have poverty, low education, and high religious affiliation. Nearly everyone has access to the all the information of humanity with the internet. I've heard that 50% of all scientists that have ever lived throughout history are currently alive right now. That's because of the incredible growth in both population and education. If true that is an astounding statistic.
 
In the modern world almost anyone can get to wherever they want in society, even if their parents have poverty, low education, and high religious affiliation.

I'm afraid the worldwide data on social mobility make this statement totally wrong. And, regrettably, it's especially true in the United States, which lags almost all the developed countries in social mobility.
 
I like this discussion here, TMC seems like a place with smart rational forward thinking people.

Given all the automatization we will end up sooner or later in a "Leisure Society" where only 20% of the workforce is needed to supply everything to the whole population.
The article states a 20 year timeframe.

As things are going today, in 20 years citizens in the Scandanavian countries will be living in a "Leisure Society" while in the U.S. the 80% not working will have just enough of a safety net to keep from starving. The top 1% will get 10 or 20% of income and the rest of the 20% working the rest. A friendly and not at all resentful robot will ask if you'd like to super size your drink and fries. The real task ahead is to figure out how to divy the work and income broadly. I'd vote for a "Leisure Society" where 5 or 10% work full time and beyond, and rest of working age population work 1 or 2 days per week. Those working full time will have the most income, while those working 1 or 2 days earn enough to be middle class, but have time to volunteer, raise families, work on artistic projects, etc. How we get to a society like this from our current economic and political situation is hard to figure. Various Dystopias much easier.
 
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