Elon says Model 3 will release first as highly optioned.

[Bimbels]

I don't know....he started talking about how that was done with the S and now X, but the way he was phrasing his words it sounded like he was getting to a BUT in his sentence and then went on a tangent. He never actually answered the question.

Funny. I didn't get that at all. In fact he plainly said they would offer highly optioned versions first, to pay off costs, as they did with the S and X.

I posted this because there had been so much speculation on other threads on this forum and thought words straight from Elon would answer questions - anyone who wants to listen for themselves can listen to the playback here and decide. It's at about the 48 minute mark.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

 

[Tam]

only sold a handful of them, then they were discontinued.

It's marketing.

Who would predict that the announced $35,000 will not have the same fate as the $49,900?

Similarly, Model X was announced for launching by the third quarter and it did (for purpose of marketing but not meaningful for real production.)

 

[James Anders]

Hmmm... Considering ALL the grief the press and media gave Tesla on the Model X being SO VERY EXPENSIVE....it's going to be problematic if Tesla's long-awaited $35K car is really $55K. And even though it's known it's just in the beginning the press will harp and complain about this and people will be shocked and upset.

 

[Bimbels]

Hmmm... Considering ALL the grief the press and media gave Tesla on the Model X being SO VERY EXPENSIVE....it's going to be problematic if Tesla's long-awaited $35K car is really $55K. And even though it's known it's just in the beginning the press will harp and complain about this and people will be shocked and upset.

I kind of agree. I understand selling the more expensive cars first to help pay for costs - but does that mean that it must be in the form of a signature series? Or is it just for reservation holders that load up on options? In the call Elon talked about how annoying it is that the press focuses on the price on the X when what is being cited is Sig and not production. But then why set yourself up for that again?

We already have a model S. We are not going to spend the same or even close to the same on a jacked model 3. I am sure I am not alone. What's wrong with covering costs by selling MORE cars - more volume? Unless they can't ramp up.

 

[Tam]

Hmmm... Considering ALL the grief the press and media gave Tesla on the Model X being SO VERY EXPENSIVE.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating: Shocked & complained high pricing has not diminished the demand. Elon said he had to "discourage" the demand.

 

[aronth5]

Well, that's kind of too high of a starting price for Model S.

It was announced as $49,900:

http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2013-tesla-model-s-test-review-a-model-s-for-49900-page-3

I believe the $49,900 was after the tax credit based on the following article
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-coughs-up-sedan-price-details-on-economy-car-5344

"Speaking at the Tesla dealership in Menlo Park, Calif., company CEO Elon Musk revealed that its all-electric passenger sedan, the Model S, will be priced at $57,499. The government will offer a $7,500 tax credit to bring the price to $49,999.
December 09, 2008

 

[Tam]

I believe the $49,900 was after the tax credit based on the following article

Thanks for the correction.

The idea is to take advertisement and marketing with a grain of salt.

I don't know what $35,000 will include but if you prescribe to the history of Tesla, you might want to expect to pay more if you are not happy with a bare bone model.

 

[Az_Rael]

As expected. So the only folks who will end up getting the tax credit will be the ones who paid the most for the car. Unfortunate, and probably why they have been harping on the "no credit" pricing.

And, yes, I fully expect that 35K model to be the same rare beast as the Model S for under $60k. I am planning on spending up to 50k on mine. Hopefully that gets me a nicely optioned one.

 

[ratsbew]

Hmmm... Considering ALL the grief the press and media gave Tesla on the Model X being SO VERY EXPENSIVE....it's going to be problematic if Tesla's long-awaited $35K car is really $55K. And even though it's known it's just in the beginning the press will harp and complain about this and people will be shocked and upset.

Considering how few people will actually order the base car for $35,000, I'd say that they should let people configure as they see fit and ship at least some $35,000 versions at the very beginning.

 

[James Anders]

I am sure there will be some that order with no options at $35K. As long as some can place an order I don't think there will be too much problem.

Even if Tesla prioritizes the build/sale of the more expensive cars first - but still takes the base model orders it will be OK.

But if they only take fully loaded orders for a significant period of time they will be inviting the media to paint the negative narrative that they live for in the news world today.

 

[Tam]

I'd say that they should let people configure as they see fit and ship at least some $35,000 versions at the very beginning.

Tesla tradition has been to get money from those who can afford the most first, then use that money to subsidize to those who can afford the least.

Please note the sequence.

https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

 

[ebwb]

Here's my completely speculative, wishful thinking:

Model 3
60: $35,000 + $1,200 destination, 6.3 sec, 320i competitor, 225 mi range (first deliveries 8/2018)
60D: $40,000 + $1,200 destination, 5.8 sec, 328i competitor, 230 mi range (first deliveries 5/2018)
85D: $50,000 + $1,200 destination, 4.8 sec, 340i competitor, 290 mi range (first Signature deliveries 12/2017)
P85D: $65,000 + $1,200 destination, 3.8 sec, M3 competitor, 265 mi range (first Signature deliveries 12/2017)

 

[doofenshmirtz]

My personal goal is $50,000. My priority for features is to upgrade to the max battery size first and then hopefully AWD, followed by creature comforts as budget allows.

Expect the CPO's to show corresponding price drops in the same time frame. You may be able to find a Model S CPO way before the Model 3 shows up that fits your profile.

 

[HankLloydRight]

At what point do the federal tax credits get rolled back?

I know it starts when Tesla hits 200k US sold cars. But what if that happens mid-year? That's a pretty tight number they'll need to publish, so everyone knows when they buy the car, they can or can't claim the tax credit in the following year (or file for the reduced credit if between thresholds and no credit). Will the IRS actually decide on the actual sale date? Will Tesla publish daily numbers when they get close to 200k cars so people know in advance? Or is it a crap-shoot to see what credit the IRS says you qualify for? Has any other manufacturer reached this limit and what happened there? I think it sounds good on paper, but what really happens when they got near or over the 200k limit?

 

[Az_Rael]

Expect the CPO's to show corresponding price drops in the same time frame. You may be able to find a Model S CPO way before the Model 3 shows up that fits your profile.

The only problem with a CPO Model S is all the crazy technology it has - I can't really afford to maintain a $100k car even if I did buy it for less than $50k. $1300 door handles and $600 service visits are a bit out of my comfort zone (I usually own cars past their warranties). I would never buy an Audi A8 certified used because I know I can't actually afford to maintain it.

I am hoping a Model 3 is a much more "standard" car with much less expensive tech. And that the service costs are more in line with the entry-level luxury cars that I have owned and are familiar with (Lexus, Acura and Audi). The pre-paid service plan for the CPO Audi S4 we just bought was only $865 for 50K miles. If the Model 3 still requires $600 service visits every 12,500 miles (twice a year for my mileage)....well, Chevy does have that Bolt and I will take a real hard look at it.

 

[eloder]

At what point do the federal tax credits get rolled back?

I know it starts when Tesla hits 200k US sold cars. But what if that happens mid-year? That's a pretty tight number they'll need to publish, so everyone knows when they buy the car, they can or can't claim the tax credit in the following year (or file for the reduced credit if between thresholds and no credit). Will the IRS actually decide on the actual sale date? Will Tesla publish daily numbers when they get close to 200k cars so people know in advance? Or is it a crap-shoot to see what credit the IRS says you qualify for? Has any other manufacturer reached this limit and what happened there? I think it sounds good on paper, but what really happens when they got near or over the 200k limit?

It phases out based on calendar quarters once achieved. If TSLA sold a million Model 3's (somehow) in the first three months of release, all million would get the tax credit in full.

I can't remember the exact phase-out schedule, but it's pretty long.

 

[Az_Rael]

At what point do the federal tax credits get rolled back?

I know it starts when Tesla hits 200k US sold cars. But what if that happens mid-year? That's a pretty tight number they'll need to publish, so everyone knows when they buy the car, they can or can't claim the tax credit in the following year (or file for the reduced credit if between thresholds and no credit). Will the IRS actually decide on the actual sale date? Will Tesla publish daily numbers when they get close to 200k cars so people know in advance? Or is it a crap-shoot to see what credit the IRS says you qualify for? Has any other manufacturer reached this limit and what happened there? I think it sounds good on paper, but what really happens when they got near or over the 200k limit?

It phases out over several quarters after the threshold has been met. So I assume there will be some notice on the IRS website that Tesla has met the threshold on X date. The phase out will then start in the 2nd quarter after that over the course of 1 year. You have to have the bill of sale for the car to claim the credit, so the car would have to be actually delivered to you within the timeframe before the credits fully phase out. The date on the bill of sale will probably determine what "phase" of the credit you get, NOT what reservation date you made.

Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)

The phase out info will be posted here: Federal Tax Credits for All-Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

 

[HankLloydRight]

It phases out based on calendar quarters once achieved. If TSLA sold a million Model 3's (somehow) in the first three months of release, all million would get the tax credit in full.

Ah, thanks. Makes sense and is quite fair.

 

[ratsbew]

Expect the CPO's to show corresponding price drops in the same time frame. You may be able to find a Model S CPO way before the Model 3 shows up that fits your profile.

I suppose. As much as I love the Model S, it's just too big of a car for me. I prefer smaller cars and hopefully the Model 3 is closer to what I want.

 

[mwulff]

Since our government thought it would be a great idea to tax electric cars over the next five year I'm probably not going to be able to get a Model 3. Even though I would prefer to downsize from our S to a fully loaded 3. The S really is too big for most of Europe. Way too wide, it doesn't fit in anywhere.